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JOKER OS THREAD // 738.5M OS // 1.074B WW

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9 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

835 does seem like a probable number for the end of the weekend. Should its hold be worse, due to Dark Fate taking screens away in some markets, maybe just under 830...

830m means 35m OS weekend = 55% drop ?

In Japan, its still on pace to 25% drop, SK 50% drop, Italy also good chance for below 50% drop, Germany 40% drop, France with 25-30% drop, Australia with 43% weekly and yesterday in Uk from Comscore, Joker still #1.

So why it suddenly drop in 50-55% range ?

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3 minutes ago, RJ 95 said:

830m means 35m OS weekend = 55% drop ?

In Japan, its still on pace to 25% drop, SK 50% drop, Italy also good chance for below 50% drop, Germany 40% drop, France with 25-30% drop, Australia with 43% weekly and yesterday in Uk from Comscore, Joker still #1.

So why it suddenly drop in 50-55% range ?

As I said, loss of screens. For example, my local cinema had 9 showtimes for Joker Wed and Thu, even with Dark Fate opening on Wed, but it's down to five for Fri-Sun. Should this repeat in a few major markets, the drop will be harsher. Still, 830 would be on the more extreme, worst case scenario side, as I mentioned, with 835+ more likely.

 

 

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28 minutes ago, Xftg123 said:

I'm going to wait to see how it all goes during the weekend. That being said, where do you guys think the overseas run will end at? The movie's currently in the 490s in terms of millions so far.

If it drop 50% each week, it will end in 630m. With drop in 45-50% randomly each weekend in 650m. So great chance in >650m for now.

 

There is one holiday more in Japan, school break in France, some discount day in Spain also next weekend hold will be better in some parts of  Europe with Friday holiday. 

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9 minutes ago, RJ 95 said:

If it drop 50% each week, it will end in 630m. With drop in 45-50% randomly each weekend in 650m. So great chance in >650m for now.

 

There is one holiday more in Japan, school break in France, some discount day in Spain also next weekend hold will be better in some parts of  Europe with Friday holiday. 

We could see a hard drop in Spain this weekend precisely because those discount days. That drop will be recovered by far during Monday-Wednesday period in Spain with €2.90 tickets, so do not be worried if you see a 50% drop on Sunday in Spain.

 

Said this, Dark Fate is not being released here this weekend, but next one.

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3 minutes ago, peludo said:

We could see a hard drop in Spain this weekend precisely because those discount days. That drop will be recovered by far during Monday-Wednesday period in Spain with €2.90 tickets, so do not be worried if you see a 50% drop on Sunday in Spain.

 

Said this, Dark Fate is not being released here this weekend, but next one.

Thanks for the info, I also see that like last year and Gravity in 2013, that this 3 day discount seems like  double it's weekdays from last week ? 

Can SH movie or drama movie have same impact ?

 

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16 minutes ago, RJ 95 said:

Thanks for the info, I also see that like last year and Gravity in 2013, that this 3 day discount seems like  double it's weekdays from last week ? 

Can SH movie or drama movie have same impact ?

 

Sure. It is sold about 4 or 5 times more tickets than a usual weekday. Every film is boosted. And if the film has special relevance as Joker, even more. This is the ranking of these discount periods, which started 10 years ago (admissions reported x €2.90 each ticket):

 

1. Ocho apellidos vascos: €2.64m

2. A monster calls: €2.60m (after €2.8m 3rd weekend)

3. Infinity War: €1.68m (after €2.5m 2nd weekend)

4. Dracula Untold: €1.35m

5. Age of Ultron: €1.32m

6. The Jungle Book: €1.25m (after €1.6m 4th weekend)

7. Civil War: €1.23m

8. The Martian: €1.07m

9. Campeones: €1.07m

10. Guardians of the Galaxy 2: €989k

 

Basically, there are local hits (3) and SH films (4). The most similar case to Joker could be The Jungle Book.

 

Joker did €3.1m last weekend. We could see a 50% drop (€1.5m-€1.6m 4th weekend). Asuming the same behaviour, it could gross 1.2-1.3 million during Mon-Wed period. And after that, a long weekend.

 

We have basically a 10 days weekend starting today in terms of box office.

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7 hours ago, Geo1500 said:

 

840-855 seems little bit out of reach due to the OS weekend jumping 45-55 in your numbers. The realistic target is 815-820M

Joker has at $780.5 million  WW now (Incl Dom  Thursday number), the domestic weekend could be around $17 million. Dom alone already took him to $797.5m WW, would have to make only $18m- $23m OS this weekend (coming from a weekend of $78m last week), quite unlikely.

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Thursday-Argentina 

 

Joker with 30.116 admission (-37.5% from LW)  and 1.992.311 for it's whole run.

It will pass 2m in Friday and if it continues the way it drop, good chance to reach >2.7m. So double CM or Spidey admission.

 

Btw, sorry If I post too many times.

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1 hour ago, RJ 95 said:

Thursday-Argentina 

 

Joker with 30.116 admission (-37.5% from LW)  and 1.992.311 for it's whole run.

It will pass 2m in Friday and if it continues the way it drop, good chance to reach >2.7m. So double CM or Spidey admission.

 

Btw, sorry If I post too many times.

As Omni said you are adding value to this forum. So dont worry about the volume of posts.

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2 minutes ago, Sunny Max said:

#Joker walking towards a new record in Japan. as it can become the first ever DC film to stay in #1 spot for 4 weekends in a row 

 

Movie grossed $0.6 M on 4th friday beating Maleficent2 ($0.3 M) & GeminiMan ($0.45 M) ..  😮 

na...it's the first R-15 AND the first American cbm (not just DC) to do so. 

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