RJ 95 Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 (edited) So I'm bored and trying to calculate, how much Joker can get from it's biggest market and some logic behind it. Some of them maybe optimistic or normal hold. Asia-Pacific : -SK = $2m, if there is no big loss of screen on Thursday it can get easily to this amount even more if it's hold stay in 40-50% -Japan = $13m, with 26% drop each week it will get this number leading to $47m finish. -Australia = $3.5m, don't expect much. Just with 40-50% drop. Europe : -UK = $10m, constant 40% drop and £55m finish. -Russia = $1-1.5m, like Australia and SK already at the end of it's run. -Spain = $8m, it have chance to gross more and surpass endgame but I'm trying to hold our expectation. -Italy = $5.5m, also like Spain very close finish with Endgame and €29m finish. -France = $14m, with 25% drop next week ( very much achievable with school breaks and holiday) and 40% after that. -Germany = $10m, next weekend drop hopefully softer and 40% afterwards. -Mexico= $1.5m, with steep drop each week, not much it will get after that. Let's hope $2m for rounding it nicely. -Brazil = $6.5m. With this still drop in 30-35%, and decent weekedays. $36-37 finish seems in reach. So in total still $76m more from this, let's take 65m-85m for big range. With smaller market still going strong. 700m OS finish achievable. Sorry for this extremely long post. Just want to share my thoughts. Edited October 28, 2019 by RJ 95 6 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 (edited) 7 hours ago, RJ 95 said: Thanks, how high do you think it can reach ? 3.5-3.7 million possibly ? I think the upper part of that range is more likely if it holds well next weekend due to colder and rainier weather (and public holiday on Thursday (Reformation day) in the protestant northern parts of Germany and on Friday (All Saints' Day) in the catholic southern part), but I still think it has a chance at 3.9-4M (especially with a 4th weekend flat from this weekend), don't think it will get further than that. It's at 2.64M after a 0.45M 3rd weekend. So it would need to add 3x that for 4M. Don't really know what to take as a comp for this (most Superhero movies perform differently and a movie like TLK had a worse 2nd weekend hold but great weekdays (summer) and great holds on 3rd weekend and later in the run sometimes even increase from weekend to weekend which lead to adding at least 4.25x the 3rd weekend (564k 3rd weekend for TLK). While Endgame only added 1.976x the 3rd weekend (419k 3rd weekend). And it partly depends how long a few chains keep it in their cinemas (Don't know about some but Cinestar (I think the biggest chain) keeps most movies for 12-14 weeks and if a movie has legs like BR they can be played for more than 20 weeks. Edited October 28, 2019 by Taruseth 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJ 95 Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 (edited) Monday - Japan Joker have a nice hold with 22.3% drop from last Wednesday and 56% from Sunday. I won't use last week Monday because its evening business hugely inflated with Tuesday holiday and generally in Japan, Joker get same result in Monday or Wednesday. Est for Monday 550k Edited October 28, 2019 by RJ 95 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 16 hours ago, TheDarkKnightOfSteel said: As far as I know weather will not be as good on most Europe starting tomorrow.So yeah I expect a great hold.1B before Frozen 2?Maybe...definetly before Christmas. I hope it gets 1B headlines before HFPA votes. Golden Globe nominations would be a huge step towards Oscars and I want Joaquin to win (which is more likely with your movie in Picture line up). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xftg123 Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 15 minutes ago, Valonqar said: Golden Globe nominations would be a huge step towards Oscars and I want Joaquin to win (which is more likely with your movie in Picture line up). Golden Globe nominations are possible. They did recently tweet about the movie being the biggest R-Rated film ever. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJ 95 Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 (edited) Portugal Joker last weekend accumulated 73.456 admission and € 406k, down 33% from LW. Total € 3.460.343 and 621.134 admission Great chance to surpass Avengers : Endgame next weekend with 670.413 admission. https://ica-ip.pt/pt/downloads/box-office/ Edited October 28, 2019 by RJ 95 5 4 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 Holy shit! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheUndertaker Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 I think it will definitely be nominated for the Globe, not only that but it has big chances of winning too. Bohemian Rhapsody won this year after all. Joaquin Phoenix' nomination is a given, and he'll probably win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnDr3s Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 3 2 3 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJ 95 Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 (edited) So only 37% drop over last weekend OS, better drop than LW. Such a nice hold, when early on we expect 45% will be a good drop. Also weekdays number increase to 33.6m, only 39.2% drop over previous weekend. Edited October 28, 2019 by RJ 95 3 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 3 hours ago, Valonqar said: I hope it gets 1B headlines before HFPA votes. Golden Globe nominations would be a huge step towards Oscars and I want Joaquin to win (which is more likely with your movie in Picture line up). Film festival - Venice, checked Box office - 1b , first ever for R-rated, checked Next station - Oscar. I will use BR as base reference to compare two as BR, very much like Joker, wasn't truly a critical success but huge commercial success , both film have huge controversy surrounding it. and you can one male-lead that give powerful performance that shield everything else coming against it. bohemian rhapsody have few aspect put it in advantage over Joker in award season. It was biopic, oscar-friendly genre by nature, and last year award race was kind of dull, leaving BR sneak in the race in full force. This year oscar race is much more intense than last year and joker being CBM, still subject to Oscar's bias, One key advantage Joker have over BR here is Venice prize. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 915-920 (63-68 week) by next Sun and 950-960 (35-40 week) by Sun after that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddevil19 Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 On 10/15/2019 at 3:52 PM, reddevil19 said: Just had a quick look at the ol' home country. Romania's showing a drop of less than 17%. Almost 1.2 million USD. For reference, some of the biggest superhero movies ever, as well as some of this year's biggest: Aquaman ~ 3.9 million Endgame ~ 3.4 million Infinity War ~ 2.6 million Venom ~ 2.5 million Hobbs & Shaw ~ 2.3 million Suicide Squad ~ 2.1 million Thor Ragnarok ~ 2.1 million Black Panther ~ 2 million The Lion King ~ 1.9 million Deadpool 2 ~ 1.8 million Deadpool ~1.8 million Captain Marvel ~ 1.8 million BvS ~ 1.6 million Justice League ~ 1.5 million Far From Home ~ 1.35 million Aladdin ~1.2 million Homecoming ~ 1.05 million Wonder Woman ~ 1.05 million So, unless it completely starts falling off a cliff, should get the 2nd biggest DC gross. Update for Romania - steeper drop this week, but still at 1.97 million. Over TLK for the year now. As previously mentioned, will be DC's second biggest in the market. Will get close to Hobbs & Shaw. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJ 95 Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 13 minutes ago, a2k said: 915-920 (63-68 week) by next Sun and 950-960 (35-40 week) by Sun after that. 851.9 + 56m (32.5% drop) + 11 Dom WE + 6m weekdays = 925m Of course Terminator will open to more market next WE but some parts of Europe also will have Friday holiday and good weather hopefully help too. Also Japan hold probably in 10-15% on WE because Monday holiday and Spain will have really strong weekdays to help. That 32.5% hold seems achievable. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 I would say what ever we expect, Joker will do slightly more than that. This week I thought 845m+ was good and it went above 851m. So if we believe in 925m, I think 930 will happen. I think this will cross 1B by the time Olaf 2 opens. 9 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJ 95 Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said: I would say what ever we expect, Joker will do slightly more than that. This week I thought 845m+ was good and it went above 851m. So if we believe in 925m, I think 930 will happen. I think this will cross 1B by the time Olaf 2 opens. It will take 30% drop OS. Achievable of course like every week we had seen but I still hold a bit of conservative mind because Terminator will open in more countries. Also even though big market right now dropping in predictable way. Smaller market might start crumbling in smaller scale and hard to predict it. Also just see that France actual with 5.8m, only 19% drop. Edited October 28, 2019 by RJ 95 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattW Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 Mojo says 574.1 but the numbers says 570.3 Not sure who to believe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Firepower Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 12 minutes ago, MattW said: Mojo says 574.1 but the numbers says 570.3 Not sure who to believe WB reported 574.1 with new estimate. The-numbers is often messy with numbers. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
