JOKER OS THREAD // 738.5M OS // 1.074B WW

[RJ 95]

6 minutes ago, a2k said:

 Is on 637.7 after a 38.8 weekend. So 87.3 or 2.25x the weekend needed. Even if legs don't continue to trend the way they have, 2.25x more seems safe.

Yup, I just calculate if it make 32m this week, then it will make 50m after that. So I hope it can make 33.5 (47.5% drop) for additional 54 to have same number. 

[Valonqar]

Passing 1 billie is a historical moment. the rest (how much over) is gravy. So lets get to the milestone first and then we can stan for the rest. 

[Steven]

 

27 minutes ago, Bart Allen said:

Some projections are having it hit $1.1 billion - that's without the talk of award-season-expansion ~

1.1B is impossible

 

[Bart Allen]

1 minute ago, Steven said:

 

1.1B is impossible

 

Not exactly when you consider the legs it has in Europe and how much Gravity and A Star Is Born grossed when expanded for awards season.

Edited November 5, 2019 by Bart Allen

[titanic2187]

27 minutes ago, Bart Allen said:

But Bohemian Rhaposdy wasn't a wholly Freddie Mercury film as much as it was a Queen film - and clearly China allowed them to show it - even with a 1 minute censorship - as many LGBTQ films wouldn't get a Chinese release in the first place. Teaser trailer counts don't mean anything though as that's subjective, and true Joker may have received praise in Venice, but went it went over the Atlantic it was another story entirely.

 

Joker having an R-rating, having a relatively original story, being lambasted by the media for potential spurring on violence, not allowing children to attend screenings and not having a Chinese release makes it one of the most impressive runs of all time - all the more when you consider the budget and the low drops throughout the European continent.

Bohemian Rhapsody has equally low drop across continent. And that China's release was allowed purely because of BR's oscar hype. BR was only allowed to show in art theater chain in China. Also, BR has equally low budget like Joker and much more subdued initial buzz than joker , For that security concern to joker, how those drama adversely impacted Joker or helped Joker can never be quantified.

 

R-rating success has been proven by Logan, and Deadpool, but no LGBT films has even come near half like BR's success. BR is clearly a LGBT film, the protagonist is bisexual, gay kiss twice on screen, confession of gay identity cannot be clearer. 

 

Lastly , if you asked people one year before BR's release about its chance of 900m, zero people would say yes, but you will still get like 10% of people betting on Joker for that threshold.

 

 

  

[john2000]

17 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Bohemian Rhapsody has equally low drop across continent. And that China's release was allowed purely because of BR's oscar hype. BR was only allowed to show in art theater chain in China. Also, BR has equally low budget like Joker and much more subdued initial buzz than joker , For that security concern to joker, how those drama adversely impacted Joker or helped Joker can never be quantified.

 

R-rating success has been proven by Logan, and Deadpool, but no LGBT films has even come near half like BR's success. BR is clearly a LGBT film, the protagonist is bisexual, gay kiss twice on screen, confession of gay identity cannot be clearer. 

 

Lastly , if you asked people one year before BR's release about its chance of 900m, zero people would say yes, but you will still get like 10% of people betting on Joker for that threshold.

 

 

  

one other movie ,is jumanji, imo most impressive than either joker or bh

Edited November 5, 2019 by john2000

[Bart Allen]

29 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Bohemian Rhapsody has equally low drop across continent. And that China's release was allowed purely because of BR's oscar hype. BR was only allowed to show in art theater chain in China. Also, BR has equally low budget like Joker and much more subdued initial buzz than joker , For that security concern to joker, how those drama adversely impacted Joker or helped Joker can never be quantified.

 

R-rating success has been proven by Logan, and Deadpool, but no LGBT films has even come near half like BR's success. BR is clearly a LGBT film, the protagonist is bisexual, gay kiss twice on screen, confession of gay identity cannot be clearer. 

 

Lastly , if you asked people one year before BR's release about its chance of 900m, zero people would say yes, but you will still get like 10% of people betting on Joker for that threshold.

 

 

  

True, BR had a low drop; but then again it wasn't an R-rated film which marginalised half of its potential audience. Nevertheless, BR still grossed over $10 million in China - true such security concerns can never truly be quantified, but it played a part nevertheless.

 

BR is an LGBT film - but it's also a Queen film as much as it is a Freddie Mercury film, hence why China could remove so little of the apparent controversial content and still allow it to be played. But then again your last point somewhat mirrors what you said before - it can never be quantified; the Queen IP is a strong one, at that, and it wasn't R-rated either and restricted almost half of its audience. Any non-R-rated film had and has the potential to gross $900/$1 billion +, but there's a reason why no R-rated film has ever done such a thing before - more so without China and this recent expansion in the recent years.

Edited November 5, 2019 by Bart Allen

[Bart Allen]

12 minutes ago, john2000 said:

one other movie ,is jumanji, imo most impressive than either joker or bh

 

It's not an R-rated film? It starred arguably the biggest star on the planet and grossed over $70 million in China? I don't see why you're trying to get at? And for the most part a rather "safe" film that was already a sequel?

Edited November 5, 2019 by Bart Allen

[titanic2187]

7 minutes ago, john2000 said:

one other movie ,is jumanji, imo most impressive than either joker or bh

Jumanji was another one. Coming out from nowhere and it was under TLJ's 1.3b shadow  yet managed to claw past many many blockbusters.

 

Most surprising box office run of this decade.

2010: Alice in the wonderland

2011 : Nothing 

2012 : Skyfall vs Avengers. Very hard to decide although I picked Avengers.  

2013 : Frozen

2014 : Nothing

2015 : Nothing.

2016 : Zootopia

2017 : Jumanji

2018 : Bohemian Rhapsody

2019 : Endgame vs Joker vs Aladdin, depending where Joker finally landed. 

 

  

[Bart Allen]

7 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Jumanji was another one. Coming out from nowhere and it was under TLJ's 1.3b shadow  yet managed to claw past many many blockbusters.

 

Most surprising box office run of this decade.

2010: Alice in the wonderland

2011 : Nothing 

2012 : Skyfall vs Avengers. Very hard to decide although I picked Avengers.  

2013 : Frozen

2014 : Nothing

2015 : Nothing.

2016 : Zootopia

2017 : Jumanji

2018 : Bohemian Rhapsody

2019 : Endgame vs Joker vs Aladdin, depending where Joker finally landed. 

 

  

Because Star Wars as a brand isn't the Star Wars of the past, and naturally The Last Jedi was rather divisive a film (hence why I'm looking forward to how Rise of Skywalker plays out, especially with Jumanji 3 and Cats) - so there's no reason that Jumanji couldn't have attained those numbers, if one thinks about it, - with some of the variables I included above. But a film about mental illness (with no other film about mental illness having been able to obtained the numbers) - whilst being a character-study - with no explosions, massive CGI or a Batman shouldn't be taken lightly.

 

Not to mention how well Joker has done against two notable franchise-films: Maleficent and Terminator - which were incredibly hurt by the unassuming film which many weren't expecting 😂

Edited November 5, 2019 by Bart Allen

[peludo]

1 hour ago, Steven said:

 

1.1B is impossible

 

Really hard, but not impossible

[titanic2187]

8 minutes ago, Bart Allen said:

True, BR had a low drop; but then again it wasn't an R-rated film which marginalised half of its potential audience. Nevertheless, BR still grossed over $10 million in China - true such security concerns can never truly be quantified, but it played a part nevertheless.

 

BR is an LGBT film - but it's also a Queen film as much as it is a Freddie Mercury film, hence why China could remove so little of the apparent controversial content and still allow it to be played. But then again your last point somewhat mirrors what you said before - it can never be quantified; the Queen IP is a strong one, at that, and it wasn't R-rated either and restricted almost half of its audience. Any non-R-rated film had and has the potential to gross $900/$1 billion +, but there's a reason why no R-rated film has ever done such a thing before - more so without China and this recent expansion in the recent years.

I guess if you are comparing BR to Joker, China factor is almost non-existence as BR only did like 14m in china. China card can only be used when You are comparing Joker run to Aquaman, Captain marvel or SM: FFH. And i wouldn't rule out the possibility of Joker getting China release if Joker turns out to be award season darling.

 

R-rating certainly is a prohibitive factor but Logan and Deadpool prove that they can be hit if they really connect to audience. Guess what?? Logan and DP were superhero films too. If today Logan & Deadpool never existed, then yes, Joker's run will be even more impressive as it was truly unprecedented. 

 

Certainly no one except maybe one or two predicted ( even that they were seen as a troll) Joker can hit 1b. But the prohibitive power of R-rating to a SH genre is nothing compared to LGBT theme.   

 

 

[Bart Allen]

13 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

I guess if you are comparing BR to Joker, China factor is almost non-existence as BR only did like 14m in china. China card can only be used when You are comparing Joker run to Aquaman, Captain marvel or SM: FFH. And i wouldn't rule out the possibility of Joker getting China release if Joker turns out to be award season darling.

 

R-rating certainly is a prohibitive factor but Logan and Deadpool prove that they can be hit if they really connect to audience. Guess what?? Logan and DP were superhero films too. If today Logan & Deadpool never existed, then yes, Joker's run will be even more impressive as it was truly unprecedented. 

 

Certainly no one except maybe one or two predicted ( even that they were seen as a troll) Joker can hit 1b. But the prohibitive power of R-rating to a SH genre is nothing compared to LGBT theme.   

 

 

You're absolutely right; but wouldn't a Chinese release be unlikely due to the protest and mob mentally as shown in the Joker, which may be seen as having certain allusions to the Hong Kong state of affairs as of recently? True, Logan and DP - however, they didn't have legs and they've not challenged any of the Avengers games overseas - just for a yearly comparison. But you're right ~

 

But you can't compare an LGBT theme (which is still relatively small in the film - hence why China censored so little of it) to that of a prohibitive social-commentary R-rated film about mental illness. Did BR play in China? Yes? Did BR play to under 15's? Yes? Did BR have the same stiff-competition as Joker? No? Joker wasn't marketed as a SH film, whereas BR was marketed as both a Mercurcy and a Queen film - can't really conflate, especially with one of the biggest personalities and bands of all time.

Edited November 5, 2019 by Bart Allen

[titanic2187]

1 minute ago, Bart Allen said:

You're absolutely right; but wouldn't a Chinese release be unlikely due to the protest and mob mentally as shown in the Joker, which may be seen as having certain allusions to the Hong Kong state of affairs as of recently? True, Logan and DP - however, they didn't have legs and they've not challenged any of the Avengers games overseas - just for a yearly comparison. But you're right ~

 

But you can't compare an LGBT theme (which is still relatively small in the film - hence why China censored so little of it) to that of a prohibitive social-commentary R-rated film about mental illness. Did BR play in China? Yes? Did BR play to under 15's? Yes? Did BR have the same stiff-competition as Joker? No? Joker wasn't marketed as a SH film, whereas BR was marketed as both a Mercurcy and a Queen film - can't really conflate.

I must agree that joker wasn't marketed as SH films but entire world know it is from DC brand, proving just how popular Joker is as an DC icon.

 

BR certainly downtone its LGBT element in the marketing but why??? Because everyone in the film industry know how hard to sell LGBT product. Back to joker, no matter how dangerous, how unconventional the trailers are, people still come in force with 250m opening worldwide, proving just how much its SH genre connection protect the film from all the adverse factor.

 

[KP1025]

2 hours ago, Bart Allen said:

You hinted at Joker being one of the most iconic and popular comic book characters of all time-time? That doesn't mean anything! See Justice League, Solo: A Star Wars Story, and Batman vs Superman for further information. Arnie's Terminator was one of the most iconic characters in Western cinema of all time ... We all know how that turned out.

 

I'm not saying the Joker IP alone is responsible for the film crossing $1 billion WW, but I think it definitely helped make the film more accessible to the general audience. Queen is well-known among older audiences, but the film was still a biopic about Freddie Mercury at its core. It could have easily pulled a Rocketman (Elton John is another huge icon in the music industry) and grossed under $200 million WW, especially with the LGBT angle and negative reviews prior to release. Joker, being an origin story for one of the most infamous fictional characters ever created, was always guaranteed a higher floor. But I digress. Surely, they are both incredibly surprising and amazing runs for different reasons.  

[Bart Allen]

1 minute ago, titanic2187 said:

I must agree that joker wasn't marketed as SH films but entire world know it is from DC brand, proving just how popular Joker is as an DC icon.

 

BR certainly downtone its LGBT element in the marketing but why??? Because everyone in the film industry know how hard to sell LGBT product. Back to joker, no matter how dangerous, how unconventional the trailers are, people still come in force with 250m opening worldwide, proving just how much its SH genre connection protect the film from all the adverse factor.

 

Exactly, it wasn't marketed as a SH film - and there's not that many indications a part from the Wayne family, Gotham etc ~

 

Certainly it did down-tone those elements in the marketing, but you're right the LGBT product is tough to sell but we're not talking about an LGBT on the same level as Brokeback or Blue Is the Warmest Colour, right? But my point is that the Queen influence cannot be overstated enough when considering the success of BR all over the world.

[RJ 95]

16 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

I must agree that joker wasn't marketed as SH films but entire world know it is from DC brand, proving just how popular Joker is as an DC icon.

 

BR certainly downtone its LGBT element in the marketing but why??? Because everyone in the film industry know how hard to sell LGBT product. Back to joker, no matter how dangerous, how unconventional the trailers are, people still come in force with 250m opening worldwide, proving just how much its SH genre connection protect the film from all the adverse factor.

 

That 250m opening mostly OS number isnt just because from SH genre connection though. Also because WOM from people too. Just look at how Golden Lion win affect Italy in it's OW. Also how it's tracking for OW in Spain, UK, Mexico and Russia.

For example

-Spain tracking for € 3-3.5m because it's lower than SM FFH but predicted to have much stronger walk in, result in €4.4m

-UK first time it predicted £8-10m, then become £12.8m.

-Russia also predict es for $8.8m then become $10.6m OW

- Also Mexico with 7-8m then become 13.3m

 

It's trailer also only help, just look at how many people say how good it's trailer. Especially the first one.

[Xftg123]

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

2015 : Nothing.

 

American Sniper: Am I joke to you?

 

I think American Sniper's run was very impressive for 2015. I don't think anyone expected that movie to gross 350M and make 547M Worldwide. Not only that, in the month of January, the dumping ground where movies are placed in.

[Sunny Max]

2 hours ago, Bart Allen said:

Not exactly when you consider the legs it has in Europe and how much Gravity and A Star Is Born grossed when expanded for awards season.

Very tough but not impossible 

[Bart Allen]

4 minutes ago, Sunny Max said:

Very tough but not impossible 

Exactly :3