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JOKER OS THREAD // 738.5M OS // 1.074B WW

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671.2 os after 20.3 weekend

313.5 dom after 9.2 weekend

 

Giving 2.25x this weekend more os and 2.75x more dom,

671.2 + 20.3*2.25 = 717 os

313.5 + 9.2*2.75 = 339 dom

1056 ww, global theatrical returns of 473 (using the usual 55% dom and 40% os-china or os in this case)

 

Will beat TDKR's WW-China of 1028 handily (highest for DC).

Will also end up with 3rd highest WW-China for solo SHs behind BP and IM3.

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58 minutes ago, a2k said:

Will beat TDKR's WW-China of 1028 handily (highest for DC).

Will also end up with 3rd highest WW-China for solo SHs behind BP and IM3

Extra-ordinary feat achieved By Joker .. :bravo:

 

Apart from domestic market #Joker crushed all DC CBM movies in 95% OS markets 

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3 hours ago, Valonqar said:

I think that pundits have it outside of Top 10 because they still live in pre-October 4 world when anti-Jokers tried to convince everyone they were risking dying in a mass shooting if they went to see the movie. those days are over. 

This. Those people are delusional. They should get a reality check for their sake. After first R rated 1 bln headlines it'll get BP nom.

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7 minutes ago, Firepower said:

This. Those people are delusional. They should get a reality check for their sake. After first R rated 1 bln headlines it'll get BP nom.

CBM making a billion is expected now, not a surprise. Of course, its the first time for an R rated one, but it's still a CBM, and if something like TDK and Logan missed out, I still think a Picture nom is a long shot. Black Panther was not nominated because of quality and we all know that - whether you want to admit it or not. But it had the kind of domestic cultural impact and reviews that Joker is lacking. 

 

At the end of the day, it's nothing to do with being deserving - it's about whether they want to acknowledge a movie that had so-so reviews and still has a negative narrative (will most likely to shift from dangerous incels to portraying mentally ill people in a negative light and perpetuating stereotypes or some such shit). 

 

But, as long as actor, cinematography and score get recognised, I'd be happy. 

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54 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

CBM making a billion is expected now, not a surprise. Of course, its the first time for an R rated one, but it's still a CBM, and if something like TDK and Logan missed out, I still think a Picture nom is a long shot.

TDK was released more than a decade ago and with only 5 BP slots, things have changed since than, even though Academy still snobbish about cbms, they are less snobbish now. Logan was released in March, made much less money and noise and still managed to get Best Adapted Screenplay nom. I think Joker definitely getting a BP nom, it's not a long shot at all, not anymore. This movie is as far from your typical cbm as you can go, it became a real cultural phenomenon around the world and its billion gross has much bigger weight than all other cbms: first R rated billion movie with low budget for its genre, absolutely incredible legs, the most profitable cbm in terms of budget/gross multiplier, no action/spectacle, no China release, over The Dark Knight. Joker's 1 bln+ gross is definitely a surprise, nobody expected that. And it also won Golden Lion, which is unthinkable for a cbm. So let's not a pretend like cbm restrictions apply here, this movie doesn't behave like a comic book movie in any way.

54 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

At the end of the day, it's nothing to do with being deserving - it's about whether they want to acknowledge a movie that had so-so reviews and still has a negative narrative (will most likely to shift from dangerous incels to portraying mentally ill people in a negative light and perpetuating stereotypes or some such shit).

Critics have nothing to do with The Academy, otherwise many movies wouldn't have been nominated and many wouldn't have won, The Academy is actually closer to the audience in their tastes and audinces LOVE this movie, I'd even say this is the best reviewed movie by audiences of the year, if not years. Bohemian Rhapsody had even worse critic reviews, but still managed to get BP nom and Golden Globe win in Drama, and also Oscar wins in leading actor and tech noms. About negative narrative, it's changing on more positive and judging by some recent industry podcasts, Academy members are actually really positive about this movie.

54 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

But, as long as actor, cinematography and score get recognised, I'd be happy. 

I think that's not enough, Phillips deserves recognition as much as those three. He directed it, co-wrote it, pitched it, produced it, convinced Warners to make it, convinced Phoenix to do it. And it's extremely well-directed movie, and Phoenix had a lot of space for his perfomance, amazing scenes for its showcase and great character arc because of the script Phillips co-wrote. Some people really underestimate how much Phillips is responsible for its success, he's really talented guy and it's definitely his breakout year.

50 minutes ago, john2000 said:

people still give a damn about awards ?

No, people just want the biggest success possible for this movie, including awards :) 

Edited by Firepower
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1 hour ago, Firepower said:

Critics have nothing to do with The Academy, otherwise many movies wouldn't have been nominated and many wouldn't have won, The Academy is actually closer to the audience in their tastes

Well, no. Critics do have a lot do to with it, in as much as this would be one of the worst reviewed nominees. They generally go for movies that have more acclaim or are at least less divisive. That's the issue here - not the reviews themselves, but what's behind them... The fact that there is a strong social narrative behind those negatives represent the biggest obstacle for the movie. And if you can't see that, then you're clearly not paying attention. 

 

You also thinking Philips deserves recognition actually evidences its other major issue, Philips himself. A lot of Academy members will be loath to recognise the man, and his comments around the release will do nothing to help with younger members, who will want to still steer away from controversy and avoid awarding a nod to a man who rallies against political correctness. 

 

Your comments about TDK and Logan are kinda senseless. The point is that TDK didn't get nominated, they changed the rules because of it and then we STILL never had anything like it in Best Picture until there was a social cause behind it (a social cause which would be an obstacle in Joker's case). As for Logan, again, the fact that they gave it Best Screenplay is note-worthy, as it wasn't silly pandering, but they still only went that far and didn't go all-in. The release date had nothing to do with it, as major award contenders open all through the year, not just in bait season... 

 

And you seem to be putting so much stock on the box office... Again, we have nu erous uber blockbusters, some even more universally embraced, and still no Oscar love. It's an advantage if they want a blockbuster in the mix, but time and time again the Academy has proven that, contrary to your statement, they don't necessarily align with audiences and they can very easily skip the box office behemoths. 

 

Again, deserve has shit all to do with it, which is why yes, it's still a long shot though, if they did want to have an uber blockbuster in the mix, it's definitely their best bet (unless they go all Avatar and throw in Endgame - there's worse ways for Disney to spend money than campaign hard for it). 

 

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24 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

 

Well, no. Critics do have a lot do to with it, in as much as this would be one of the worst reviewed nominees. They generally go for movies that have more acclaim or are at least less divisive. That's the issue here - not the reviews themselves, but what's behind them... The fact that there is a strong social narrative behind those negatives represent the biggest obstacle for the movie. And if you can't see that, then you're clearly not paying attention. 

No but seriously you confuse Oscar voters with Twitter critics/bloggers. Obviously controversy doesn't help, and the Academy tends to go for inspirational and/or historical movies - and definitely not for CBMs - so Joker isn't a favorite by any means. But all this stuff about people being angry at Phillips on Twitter, it doesn't matter at all (actually, a lot of Academy members probably agree with him).

 

You just have to look at Bohemian Rhapsody or Green Book to see the power of Twitterers, and that's just last year.

Edited by MrGlass2
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Michael Moore, who's an Academy member, may give a vote for it, he thought it was Kubrick level masterpiece and wrote a really interesting piece about it on his Facebook page. Chris Rock, also Academy member, said it was a masterpiece on twitter. So it's not really divisive beyond one specific segment of american twitter/critics. The fact that this movie evokes very strong reactions should help.

Edited by Firepower
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1 hour ago, reddevil19 said:

Well, no. Critics do have a lot do to with it, in as much as this would be one of the worst reviewed nominees. They generally go for movies that have more acclaim or are at least less divisive. That's the issue here - not the reviews themselves, but what's behind them... The fact that there is a strong social narrative behind those negatives represent the biggest obstacle for the movie. And if you can't see that, then you're clearly not paying attention.

Dude, I'd say you weren't paying attention. Where you've been last year? Vice got worse reviews than Joker, both percentage vise and average score, and also bombed at box office, and it still got tons of noms including Best Picture and even Best Director/Best Screenplay (!). Bohemian Rhapsody had worse reviews than Joker and got 8 noms including Best Picture despite huge controversies against Bryan Singer. Green Book won BP despite Twitter shitting all over it and critics turning against it when it became front-runner. Critics really have nothing to do with Academy as long as overall reception is very strong. Gladiator won Best Picture and didn't have much stronger critic reviews because it was universally loved by audiences. And even if you consider critics Joker still has lots of 10/10 from big outlets, that's why it has really high AR for its percentage. And don't forget about Golden Lion. Audience/Academy reception is all that matters, really.

1 hour ago, reddevil19 said:

You also thinking Philips deserves recognition actually evidences its other major issue, Philips himself. A lot of Academy members will be loath to recognise the man, and his comments around the release will do nothing to help with younger members, who will want to still steer away from controversy and avoid awarding a nod to a man who rallies against political correctness.

People forgot about those comments as soon as the movie was released, nobody brings it up anymore besides some idiots on twitter. Phillips didn't even say anything bad (I'd even say he was right judging by reaction of people he loathed), he just expressed his opinion (maybe he should think twice about saying anything publicly in 2019, but I guess he just gets used to it). And you don't know what "a lot of" Academy members think about it, maybe many of them actually agree with him (for example, they agree with the recent controversial Scorcese comments about Marvel movies). Also Green Book got lots of controverises (racist comments from one of the writers, accidential N-word from Viggo, dick? controversy with director/writer) right before/during voting (!) and it still won. Casey Affleck still won Best Actor despite controversy. So it doesn't really affect anything, at all.

1 hour ago, reddevil19 said:

Your comments about TDK and Logan are kinda senseless. The point is that TDK didn't get nominated, they changed the rules because of it and then we STILL never had anything like it in Best Picture until there was a social cause behind it (a social cause which would be an obstacle in Joker's case). As for Logan, again, the fact that they gave it Best Screenplay is note-worthy, as it wasn't silly pandering, but they still only went that far and didn't go all-in. The release date had nothing to do with it, as major award contenders open all through the year, not just in bait season... 

Most awards contenders open in October/November/December, rarely movies released in the first half of the year get recognized unless repception is incredibly strong.

1 hour ago, reddevil19 said:

And you seem to be putting so much stock on the box office... Again, we have nu erous uber blockbusters, some even more universally embraced, and still no Oscar love. It's an advantage if they want a blockbuster in the mix, but time and time again the Academy has proven that, contrary to your statement, they don't necessarily align with audiences and they can very easily skip the box office behemoths.

It's never just about box office, it's about many things at the same time. Joker is universally loved by audiences around the world (including foreign critics and half american critics) + real worldwide cultural phenomenon that won't be repeated in the next decade or two + record breaking box office + Golden Lion. It's basically what Academy usually rewarded in the past and still rewards today, and they still at least nominated many controversial contenders.

1 hour ago, reddevil19 said:

Again, deserve has shit all to do with it, which is why yes, it's still a long shot though, if they did want to have an uber blockbuster in the mix, it's definitely their best bet (unless they go all Avatar and throw in Endgame - there's worse ways for Disney to spend money than campaign hard for it). 

Endgame has zero chance at Oscars, its best shot is MTV Movie Awards. Joker is definitely the best bet for Academy from all highest grossing movies this year.

Edited by Firepower
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