Weekend Thread: Downton Abbey 31M, Ad Astra 19.2M Rambo 19M, It2 17.2M, Hustlers 17M

[Eric Atreides]

 

Edited September 22, 2019 by Eric!

[Eric Atreides]

If it follows Angel Has Fallen, that would translate to about 18.5M. Haven't found a budget, but that seems pretty decent either way.

[baumer]

That's not decent at all. I mean it's decent for a Rambo franchise that is almost 40 years old now but initial tracking had it opening over 30 million. So once again tracking let's us down. Rambo did get a complete audience applause at the end of the movie I saw it last night. But the theatre was maybe half full and I'm sure there were diehards in there. I thought the movie was decent but it just didn't really feel like a Rambo movie for the first half so I don't know what the legs are going to be like on it.

[Frozen]

 

[Eric Atreides]

Just now, baumer said:

That's not decent at all. I mean it's decent for a rainbow franchise that is almost 40 years old now but initial tracking had it opening over 30 million. So once again tracking let's is down. Rambo dead yet a complete audience applause at the end of the movie I saw it last night. But the theatre was maybe half full and I'm sure there were diehards in there. I thought the movie was decent but it just didn't really feel like a Rambo movie for the first half so I don't know what the legs are going to be like on it.

Was there really any tracking for 30M+? Deadline even two days ago was saying about 23-25M, which this movie won't meet, but it's still much closer to that than 30M.

[TalismanRing]

2 minutes ago, Frozen said:

 

Should do $21m+ with that if it follows First Man

[Eric Atreides]

1 minute ago, Frozen said:

 

Following First Man, that would translate to 21.8M. That would not be a great number considering the budget and all, but it could at least save some face having a "2" in front instead of a "1".

 

Of course, the big downside is WOM seems super toxic (already rotten on RT's Aud. score), so who knows if it actually will hit 20M?

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

Ad Astra's audience score on RT is 58% verified / 52% all audience.

 

 

[el sid]

12 minutes ago, baumer said:

That's not decent at all. I mean it's decent for a rainbow franchise that is almost 40 years old now but initial tracking had it opening over 30 million. So once again tracking let's is down. Rambo dead yet a complete audience applause at the end of the movie I saw it last night. But the theatre was maybe half full and I'm sure there were diehards in there. I thought the movie was decent but it just didn't really feel like a Rambo movie for the first half so I don't know what the legs are going to be like on it.

Boxofficepro.com, the numbers and boxofficemojo are seeing it between 18 and 20.5M OW. Long Range Tracking was 14.5M OW. So there's no reason to complain at all.

That's a bit belonging to the Buzz thread and these are only my counting numbers, but judging from them I had it at 78% of Angel has Fallen for Thursday so 1.3M (87%) is fine.
It's Friday number was at 85% compared to AhF so let's see what happens .

Edited September 20, 2019 by el sid

[a2k]

IT2's Thu 1.745

 

IT1's 1st Fri was +166% and 2nd Fri was +131%

IT2's 1st Fri was +220% and if it behaves like IT1 the 2nd Fri should be around +174% - about 4.8m

If instead IT2's 1st Fri got a Fri 13th boost then it will show up in the Fri-Fri drop.

 

 

Edited September 20, 2019 by a2k

[Laurent K]

I still think that Rambo will win the week end.  Sly has made Jimmy Fallon last night and critics about gory scenes in the movie will attract moviegoers. I expect a great friday and greater saturday. 

[kitik]

Based on how my local theaters were selling last night, I'm a little surprised to see Ad Astra ahead of Rambo.

 

I thought Rambo was heading for second place behind Downton.

[Eric Atreides]

2 minutes ago, kitik said:

Based on how my local theaters were selling last night, I'm a little surprised to see Ad Astra ahead of Rambo.

 

I thought Rambo was heading for second place behind Downton.

To be fair, Ad Astra did have IMAX

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, kitik said:

Based on how my local theaters were selling last night, I'm a little surprised to see Ad Astra ahead of Rambo.

 

I thought Rambo was heading for second place behind Downton.

Ditto. From my local I though it would be doing low to mid teens but then I saw some of the IMAX numbers in the Buzz thread and they were much stronger so I boosted my prediction-  though still not enough.

[sfran43]

 

[Krissykins]

Great for Downton Abbey. 
 

$2.1m. 
 

[filmlover]

The last Rambo opened to $18M nearly a dozen years ago so that seems to be in line for this one.

 

Better than I expected for Ad Astra as well.

 

Edit: great for Downton Abbey too though the degree of frontloadedness remains to be seen.

Edited September 20, 2019 by filmlover

[SLAM!]

The trick for Ad Astra will be for it to stay above Rambo... That can help it save face... I'd rather have a great film fail with integrity than with a whimper.

 

But that's great for Downton Abbey! Focus Features was able to pull off a sizable hit with minimal advertising! That's the power of a passionate fan-base. Hopefully it has strong legs and reaches $100M. Not sure if it'll happen, but the only film I could see taking away some of its audience from now to the end of October is Judy.

[Eric Atreides]

Can't really find a good comp here for DA, but even with fan frontloading, it's still old-skewing enough that it should still scrape by 20M, right?

[Krissykins]

2 minutes ago, SLAM! said:

The trick for Ad Astra will be for it to stay above Rambo... That can help it save face... I'd rather have a great film fail with integrity than with a whimper.

 

But that's great for Downton Abbey! Focus Features was able to pull off a sizable hit with minimal advertising! That's the power of a passionate fan-base. Hopefully it has strong legs and reaches $100M. Not sure if it'll happen, but the only film I could see taking away some of its audience from now to the end of October is Judy.

I think it could be quite frontloaded, it certainly was here in the UK last weekend.
 

Projections were $7-8m after the Friday and it ended up with $6.8m.