Weekend Thread: Downton Abbey 31M, Ad Astra 19.2M Rambo 19M, It2 17.2M, Hustlers 17M

[filmlover]

7 minutes ago, SLAM! said:

The trick for Ad Astra will be for it to stay above Rambo... That can help it save face... I'd rather have a great film fail with integrity than with a whimper.

 

But that's great for Downton Abbey! Focus Features was able to pull off a sizable hit with minimal advertising! That's the power of a passionate fan-base. Hopefully it has strong legs and reaches $100M. Not sure if it'll happen, but the only film I could see taking away some of its audience from now to the end of October is Judy.

How many theaters is Judy supposed to open in next weekend anyway? BOM doesn't have an estimate but it's opening at a lot around here. Guessing it's hitting all the metropolitan areas first and then expanding from there.

[elcaballero]

And Downton Abbey pulls way ahead! 

 

Should be an interesting race between Rambo and Ad Astra this weekend.

[SLAM!]

5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

How many theaters is Judy supposed to open in next weekend anyway? BOM doesn't have an estimate but it's opening at a lot around here. Guessing it's hitting all the metropolitan areas first and then expanding from there.

 

I think that's a really good question. It feels like it's gonna be a touch more than the standard platform opening. They probably want to make a major statement by opening wide on Joker's weekend in order to directly counter-program, and the considerable amount of theaters in the limited opening will help ensure that the pieces are put together to allow for a quicker distribution of the sort. No matter what happens, I'm almost certain that The Wife is going to end up being an interesting comparison. Not only this, but I look forward to seeing what Roadside Attractions can pull off after The Peanut Butter Falcon became a sleeper hit.

[sfran43]

 

[TalismanRing]

18 minutes ago, Eric! said:

Can't really find a good comp here for DA, but even with fan frontloading, it's still old-skewing enough that it should still scrape by 20M, right?

Considering it did $2.1m previews after having $2.2m previews last Thur it might not be that front loaded.

[TalismanRing]

Just now, sfran43 said:

 

Yikes.  That's a ton of near empty screens

[filmlover]

20 minutes ago, SLAM! said:

 

I think that's a really good question. It feels like it's gonna be a touch more than the standard platform opening. They probably want to make a major statement by opening wide on Joker's weekend in order to directly counter-program, and the considerable amount of theaters in the limited opening will help ensure that the pieces are put together to allow for a quicker distribution of the sort. No matter what happens, I'm almost certain that The Wife is going to end up being an interesting comparison. Not only this, but I look forward to seeing what Roadside Attractions can pull off after The Peanut Butter Falcon became a sleeper hit.

If I had to guess it's probably getting about 250-300 theaters next weekend and will expand from there. Shouldn't have much difficulty reaching a wider audience than The Wife on account that it's about a real life icon.

 

It's too bad nothing else moved up to next weekend after The Hunt's release was cancelled so that Abominable wouldn't be the only wide opener unless everyone was really afraid of Joker the following weekend. November currently has 16 wide releases and probably could've moved one or two of them to September 27 (like 21 Bridges, which was going to open that weekend at one point).

[SLAM!]

7 minutes ago, filmlover said:

If I had to guess it's probably getting about 250-300 theaters next weekend and will expand from there. Shouldn't have much difficulty reaching a wider audience than The Wife on account that it's about a real life icon.

 

It's too bad nothing else moved up to next weekend after The Hunt's release was cancelled so that Abominable wouldn't be the only wide opener unless everyone was really afraid of Joker the following weekend. November currently has 16 wide releases and probably could've moved one or two of them to September 27 (like 21 Bridges, which was going to open that weekend at one point).

 

That's an interesting point about 21 Bridges. I truly believe that, if STX had the funds to actually release the film on that date, the film would've been a modest hit at the very least. It's got the star of Black Panther, a good trailer, and an interesting premise. I won't fault them for moving it away from Joker, but I'm sure the film would've looked like a good choice next to Abominable.

 

I also think that Judy is going to much more notable and significant than The Wife for a number of reasons, the true-life icon being one of them. That's gonna help propel Reneé towards the Oscar for sure. She could succeed where Glenn Close couldn't.

[TMP]

20 minutes ago, filmlover said:

like 21 Bridges, which was going to open that weekend at one point

They were scared of the Joker, babyyyy

[Jonwo]

You have to hand it to Universal, they have a knack for producing British films which have global appeal as evident with Yesterday earlier in the summer and now Downton Abbey. A sequel is all but cert at this point. 

 

I'll be curious to see how Last Christmas does for them.

[DAJK]

Not to bring doom and gloom but we can’t fully rule out DA playing like Entourage. That one was decently big out of the gate but died QUICK

[Maxmoser3]

Great for Downton Abbey! It should be a great weekend player, as most of its audience will go Friday night and weekend matinees. 

 

Eh for Ad Astra, appealing tv spots. But it’s budget is ridiculously high and science fiction on a certain extent is rough anymore.  

 

Rambo:Last Blood don’t know the budget. But that’s an ok start considering Stallone doesn’t bring in the dough. But I have a feeling it could do Death Wish size. 

[Maxmoser3]

3 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Not to bring doom and gloom but we can’t fully rule out DA playing like Entourage. That one was decently big out of the gate but died QUICK

Thats possible. But Entourage had quite bland marketing. WB wasn’t too enthused about it anyway. 

 

DA should bring in an audience. It’s tv show has a different audience than Entourage. That audience hasn’t had much of film appeal at all this year(minus a few exceptions). 

[Jonwo]

9 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Not to bring doom and gloom but we can’t fully rule out DA playing like Entourage. That one was decently big out of the gate but died QUICK

TBF Entourage was awful whereas the reviews for Downton have been positive. 

 

The budget for Downton is $13m which is smart budgeting, means it's going to be hugely profitable.

[LOGAN'sLuckyRun]

8 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

TBF Entourage was awful whereas the reviews for Downton have been positive. 

 

The budget for Downton is $13m which is smart budgeting, means it's going to be hugely profitable.

Yeah, Entourage cost like 39m. They actually went over budget against WB's wishes.

They also spent an ungodly amount on domestic TV spots. Over $40m, that may not sound like a lot but in comparison Minions spent 25m on TV ads.

Minions total P&A was like 160m though. Don't know what Entourage's was. Most comedies spend 50-60 but if they're flushing 40m down the shitter on American TV spots alone then it'd have to be a lot more. Between that and the fact they waited far too long to get it made makes me wonder what the fuck WB were thinking.

Edited September 20, 2019 by LOGAN'sLuckyRun

[Jonwo]

1 minute ago, LOGAN'sLuckyRun said:

Yeah, Entourage cost like 39m. They actually went over budget against WB's wishes.

They also spent an ungodly amount on domestic TV spots. Over $40m, that may not sound like a lot but in comparison Minions spent 25m on TV ads.

Minions total P&A was like 160m though. Don't know what Entourage's was.

Entourage was way too expensive considering it didn't have the appeal like Sex and the City did. 

 

 

[Eric Atreides]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-forecast-charlies-angels-and-ford-v-ferrari/

 

8-Week Forecast

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Range	3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast	% Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Forecast	% Chg from Last Week	Estimated Location Count	Distributor
9/27/2019	Abominable	$20,000,000 – $25,000,000	$22,500,000		$80,000,000		4,100	Universal
10/4/2019	Joker	$85,000,000 – $105,000,000	$103,000,000		$210,000,000		4,200	Warner Bros.
10/11/2019	The Addams Family (2019)	$16,000,000 – $21,000,000	$18,000,000		$70,000,000			United Artists Releasing
10/11/2019	The Current War (Expansion)	n/a	n/a		n/a			101 Studios
10/11/2019	Gemini Man	$26,000,000 – $31,000,000	$28,000,000	4%	$85,000,000			Paramount
10/11/2019	Jexi	$7,000,000 – $12,000,000	$8,000,000	-11%	$25,000,000	-14%		Lionsgate / CBS Films / Entertainment One
10/18/2019	Maleficent: Mistress of Evil	$30,000,000 – $50,000,000	$37,000,000		$110,000,000			Disney
10/18/2019	Zombieland 2: Double Tap	$24,000,000 – $34,000,000	$30,000,000		$77,000,000			Sony / Columbia
10/25/2019	Black and Blue	$10,000,000 – $15,000,000	$12,000,000		$35,000,000			Sony / Screen Gems
10/25/2019	Countdown	n/a	n/a		n/a			STX
10/25/2019	The Last Full Measure	n/a	n/a		n/a			Roadside Attractions
11/1/2019	Arctic Dogs	$5,000,000 – $10,000,000	$7,000,000		$24,500,000			Entertainment Studios
11/1/2019	Harriet	n/a	n/a		n/a			Focus Features
11/1/2019	Motherless Brooklyn	$7,000,000 – $12,000,000	n/a		n/a			Warner Bros.
11/1/2019	Terminator: Dark Fate	$35,000,000 – $45,000,000	$38,000,000		$85,000,000			Paramount
11/8/2019	Doctor Sleep	$20,000,000 – $30,000,000	$25,000,000		$92,000,000			Warner Bros.
11/8/2019	Last Christmas	$12,000,000 – $17,000,000	$15,000,000		$80,000,000			Universal
11/8/2019	Midway	$10,000,000 – $15,000,000	$13,000,000		$47,000,000			Lionsgate
11/8/2019	Playing with Fire	$7,000,000 – $12,000,000	$8,000,000		$33,000,000			Paramount
11/15/2019	All Rise	n/a	n/a		n/a			Entertainment Studios
11/15/2019	Charlie’s Angels (2019)	$25,000,000 – $35,000,000	$29,000,000	NEW	$78,000,000	NEW		Sony / Columbia
11/15/2019	The Good Liar	$7,000,000 – $12,000,000	n/a		n/a			Warner Bros.
11/15/2019	Ford v. Ferrari	$25,000,000 – $35,000,000	$32,000,000	NEW	$115,000,000	NEW		Fox

[LOGAN'sLuckyRun]

6 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

Entourage was way too expensive considering it didn't have the appeal like Sex and the City did. 

 

 

HBO/WB are making a Sopranos movie next year I think. I'm curious to see how that'll do.

[Alli]

That's optimistic for Charlie's Angels

[Jonwo]

6 minutes ago, LOGAN'sLuckyRun said:

HBO/WB are making a Sopranos movie next year I think. I'm curious to see how that'll do.

That has more potential as it's a prequel.