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Eric Addams

Weekend Thread: Downton Abbey 31M, Ad Astra 19.2M Rambo 19M, It2 17.2M, Hustlers 17M

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1 hour ago, TalismanRing said:

Yikes.  That's a ton of near empty screens

Better than 2 weeks ago :ph34r:

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1 hour ago, Eric! said:

Can't really find a good comp here for DA, but even with fan frontloading, it's still old-skewing enough that it should still scrape by 20M, right?

I'm not seeing any evidence of frontolading around here. Sales F-S-S are strong across the board with only the very late shows lagging.

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I think thats really solid for Ad Astra comparing to the expectations going it. First Man got 1.1. And u cant imagine why Ad Astra would be more frontloaded. Whats the min. it can get with 1.5? Is 20M locked? give me some other films that got 1.5M

Edited by Damianport1

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Entourage became unwatchable its final couple of seasons and the movie also ran on fumes. The only reason it was ever a major theatrical release was because of Mark Wahlberg's industry power. No one was surprised when the movie sputtered.

 

The Sopranos prequel will be an interesting one. It obviously would've ruined the ambiguous nature of how the series ended and all chances of it ever happening went away after Gandolfini sadly left us, but a movie that was a continuation of the show would've been a huge deal.

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1 hour ago, Jonwo said:

You have to hand it to Universal, they have a knack for producing British films which have global appeal as evident with Yesterday earlier in the summer and now Downton Abbey. A sequel is all but cert at this point. 

 

I'll be curious to see how Last Christmas does for them.

D.A. could turn into a nice little annuity for them. Keep the cast together, give Julian Fellowes 2-3 years to come up with scripts, and continue the story through the depression/war years. It's pretty much a guaranteed win with production budgets this low. 

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8 minutes ago, A Star is Orm said:

D.A. could turn into a nice little annuity for them. Keep the cast together, give Julian Fellowes 2-3 years to come up with scripts, and continue the story through the depression/war years. It's pretty much a guaranteed win with production budgets this low. 

I must say I'm surprised at the low budget. I know nothing about the TV series but the production value on the movie seems insanely high for a low-teens budgeted movie. 

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8 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I must say I'm surprised at the low budget. I know nothing about the TV series but the production value on the movie seems insanely high for a low-teens budgeted movie. 

They're likely (can't say definitely since I haven't seen it) reusing costumes and sets from the show and most of the cast probably aren't much more expensive to get on board for a film than they would for another season, so the budget makes sense.

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I am not shocked about Rambo. Looking at the Tracking Thread there were warning signs. I did a quick glance/count at two of the theaters I track for the rest of Friday:

 

SMCM

12  - Rambo

35 - Ad Astra

139 - Downton Abbey (and Even though I checked it after the 12 o’clock show, when I looked last night at 12 o’clock show was like 1/2 half so add another like 61 for 200)

 

LS13

56 - Rambo

885 - Ad Astra (estimated 775 from IMAX. Just eyeballed it)

750 - Downton Abbey (estimated 550 from Dolby)

 

So I expect DA to take the crown easily this weekend. 

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If Rambo follows:

 

Kingsman 2: $14.9m

Predator: $12.8m

American Assassin: $20.1m

Peppermint: $21.8m

 

Thinking between $13-$15m W/E RN

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2 hours ago, Eric! said:

To be fair, Ad Astra did have IMAX

One note about this.  For what ever reason, Rambo has a few of the PLF screens locally so Ad Astra wasn't getting all of the sweet sweet PLF cash.

 

Not that it mattered as when I checked a couple of screenings Rambo was bombing something fierce on those PLF screens while doing decently enough on the regular screens.  

 

Either way, just throwing that out as a data point.

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RT Aud, # verified reviews

Abbey 95%, 306

Rambo 83%, 197

Ad Astra 57%, 220

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1 hour ago, cookie said:

If Rambo follows:

 

Kingsman 2: $14.9m

Predator: $12.8m

American Assassin: $20.1m

Peppermint: $21.8m

 

Thinking between $13-$15m W/E RN

any idea what the prod budget for Last Blood is?

EDIT: 

Quote

Rambo, which Lionsgate only has U.S. and UK rights on, cost under $50M.

 

Abbey is 13m and Astra is 80-100

Quote

Ad Astra‘s start is a bit of surprise given how many are expecting this $80M+ production (we’ve heard as high as $100M before P&A)

Edited by a2k
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1 hour ago, cookie said:

They're likely (can't say definitely since I haven't seen it) reusing costumes and sets from the show and most of the cast probably aren't much more expensive to get on board for a film than they would for another season, so the budget makes sense.

The only real big name in the cast is Maggie Smith, they've probably saved some dough not having Lily James. 

 

Not that it matters but I wonder why Downton is released by Focus and not by Universal themselves?

Edited by Jonwo

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4 hours ago, Krissykins said:

I think it could be quite frontloaded, it certainly was here in the UK last weekend.
 

Projections were $7-8m after the Friday and it ended up with $6.8m. 

Tbf, last Sunday was unexpectedly lovely weather

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https://deadline.com/2019/09/downton-abbey-rambo-last-blood-ad-astra-hustlers-weekend-box-office-1202739525/

 

Quote

Wow, Focus Features. Universal’s specialty arthouse label is looking at their first No. 1 opener in nine years, the last one being George Clooney’s The American, has Downton Abbey looks to reap a $14.5M Friday (including $4.3M over two previews) for a 3-day of $33M. That will also double as Focus Features’ best opening in its history, besting the $22.7M debut of 2015’s Insidious Chapter 3. 

 

More info to come shortly, but....whew

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Ad Astra 7.1M

Rambo 6.8M

 

18.5-20 vs 17.2M

 

Fox/New Regency’s Ad Astra via Disney remains ahead of Millennium/Lionsgate’s Rambo: Last Bloodboth for Friday ($7.1M and $6.8M) and the weekend with the Brad Pitt in space movie seeing $18.5M-$20M, and the Sylvester Stallone series finale seeing $17.2M.

Edited by DAJK
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I'm probably wrong but didn't Focus release Fifty Shades of Grey or was that Universal?

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Last thing

 

STX’s Hustlers and New Line’s It Chapter Two will fight over fourth with around $16M a piece. That’s a -52% second hold for the Jennifer Lopez stripper pic and a third weekend decline of -60% for the Andy Muschietti-directed Stephen King sequel.

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