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Ezen Baklattan

CAYOM Y6 - Predictions

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APRIL

 

Super Mario Bros. - $103.5M/$337.2M

Children of Eden - $64.7M/$237.1M

Pandas - $10.2M/$30.4M

Home Invasion II: Abduction - $13.7M/$34.1M

The Pixies in the Backyard - $11.2M/$38.7M

Jane and Tony - $5.8M/$17.3M

The Thin, The Phat, and the Felon - $33.8M/$124.9M

The Blushing - $18.6M/$44.5M

Nights into Dreams - $21.3M/$62.4M

 

MAY

 

Mass Effect: Ascension - $133.6M/$359.2M

Brickleberry: Armoogeddon - $11.2M/$23.9M

Facepaint - $15.2M/$38.4M

Lumberjanes: Secret of the Eye - $45.7M/$190.3M

Double Chronomance - $16.4M/$46.1M

Green Arrow - $63.6M/$176.5M

 

JUNE

 

Pikmin - $17.8M/$66.9M

Teyonnah and the Renegades - $700k/$7.1M/$24.7M

Jeremy Renner's Big Ass Ego Massage - $16.6M/$45.1M

USS Seawolf - $42.7M/$148.6M

Forgiveness - $24.1M/$93.6M

Rhino Riders - $22.6M/$79.1M

 

@YourMother the Edgelord Bummer Camp will be included with July predicts.

 

Edited by Spaghetti
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Pikmin - $20.55m

 

Teyonnah and the Renegades - $16.04m (wide OW)

 

Jeremy Renner Presents... The App: The Jeremy Renner App - The Movie - $12.05m

USS Seawolf - $52.65m

 

Forgiveness - $22.82m

Rhino Riders - $24.43m

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MAY

 

Mass Effect: Ascension- 113.2 OW/310.4 DOM

 

Brickleberry: Armoogeddon: 4.6 OW/9.0 DOM

 

Facepaint- 9.2 OW/22.8 DOM

 

Lumberjanes: Secret of the Eye: 50.2 OW/170.6 DOM

 

Double Chronomance- 26.8 3-DAY/33.3 4-DAY/90.2 DOM


Green Arrow- 49.2 3-DAY/59.3 4-DAY/145.9 DOM

 

 

JUNE

 

Teyonnah and the Renegades: A Righteous Sextet- 0.341 Limited OW/13.2 Wide OW/47.1 DOM

 

Pikmin: 24.1 OW/84.1 DOM

 

The App: The Jeremy Renner App - The Movie: 10.4 OW/25.0 DOM

 

USS Seawolf: 53.1 OW/150.4 DOM

 

Forgiveness: 20.2 OW/72.3 DOM

 

Rhino Riders: 13.2 OW/35.6 DOM

 

 

JULY

 

Bummer Camp: 25.1 3-DAY/30.3 4-DAY/37.2 5-DAY/85.1 DOM

 

He-Man IV: The Sons of the Serpent: 62.9 3-DAY/73.8 4-DAY/173.0 DOM

 

Yolanda Dreams of Yogurt- 0.09 Limited OW/4.1 Wide Expansion/18.0 DOM

 

Plus One: 31.6 OW/117.4 DOM

 

The Academy: 11.4 OW/24.8 DOM

 

God of War: Kingdom Come: 59.2 OW/141.1 DOM

 

Borrasca - 25.6 OW/80.2 DOM

 

Hoops 2: 14.2 OW/46.1 DOM

 

De Blob: 38.1 OW/132.0 DOM

 

 

AUGUST

 

Schadenfreude- 0.29 Limited OW/3.8 Wide Expansion/4.6 Wider/22.8 DOM

 

Tommy: 28.1 OW/91.4 DOM

 

3:38 AM: 8.4 OW/18.0 DOM

 

The Ancient Magus' Bride & the King of Cats: 34.8 DOM/91.3 DOM

 

Hired Guns: 26.6 OW/94.7 DOM

 

Wolves: 6.1 OW/19.6 DOM

 

Broadway Selects: Network: 5.4 OW/14.1 DOM

 

The Girlfriend Hoax- 0.32 Limited OW/5.2 Wide/20.1 DOM

Edited by 4815162342
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Bummer Camp - $32.86m (5-day)

He-Man IV: The Sons of the Serpent - $63.85m (3-day) / $76.91m (4-day)

 

Yolanda Dreams of Yoghurt - $5.86m (wide OW)

Plus One - $35.34m

 

The Academy - $10.12m

God of War: Kingdom Come - $50.11m

 

Borrasca - $47.93m

Hoops 2 - $9.88m

 

De Blob - $41.77m

 

Schadenfreude - $6.7m (wide OW)

Tommy - $17.33m

 

3:38 A.M - $5.11m

The Ancient Magus' Bride and the King of Cats - $38.64m

 

Hired Guns - $28.05m

Wolves - $9.10m

 

Broadway Selects: Network - $5.55m

Edited by cookie
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Turbulence - $20.75m (4-day)

 

Live2ream - $9.75m

 

All-Nighter - $14.55m

The Girlfriend Hoax - $7.10m (wide OW)

The Last Policeman - $25.83m

 

Baseball Boy: The Base Thief - $10.66m

 

The Feminist - $11.74m (Wide OW)

The Horn - $20.12m

 

Shiverin' Gulch - $44.75m

 

Day of the Tentacle - $19.75m

The Trapped Keeper - $11.07m

 

Thirsty - $16.04m

 

Fiesta Loca - $50.11m

Voicemail - $32.74m

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Off-Road - $30.76m

Spring Awakening - $21.09m

 

In the Aeroplane over the Sea - $10.65m

Understand - $15.13m

 

One Big Family - $21.04m

XJ9: Rebirth - $70.44m

 

Duck Hunt - $43.66m (5-day)

 

Jingle Hell - $16.65m

 

Bleach - $40.66m

LucIId - $20.34m

Paradise Island - $8.56m (wide OW)

 

Gateways - $90.54m

The Most Wanted Man in Great Britain - $30.23m

 

Guardians of the Internet - $21.06m

Thawed - $7.01m

 

The Neon Psalms - $5.13m (Sunday only)

Edited by cookie
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3 minutes ago, Blankments said:

That Gulch OW would be very disappointing, especially if you compete it to your predicts of similar films targeting similar demographics

I figured it'd be a pretty solid OW for a horror western fantasy hybrid that's not tied to any particular property. Not even sure what the comparisons would be outside of Fiesta Loca (which I just inflated the OW because of its proximity to Halloween).

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4 minutes ago, cookie said:

And what is the similar stuff, then? I can answer for every other of my predicts if you want me to.

Well now I don’t mind as much since you explained Halloween inflation but I meant FIESTA (I hadn’t seen your edit by the time I replied)

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June

 

 

Pikmin - $23.4M/$81.9M 

Teyonnah and the Renegades - $653k/$8.3M/$30.7M

Jeremy Renner has a movie for some reason - $17.2M/$49.2M

USS Seawolf - $55.4M/$159.8M 

Forgiveness - $18.8M/$73.3M

Rhino Riders - $27.6M/$97.6M

 

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9 hours ago, cookie said:

Duck Hunt - $43.66m (5-day)

 

Gateways - $90.54m

Out of curiosity why so low on Duck Hunt and so high on Gateways? Follow up where do you see Gateways landing DOM?

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1 hour ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Out of curiosity why so low on Duck Hunt and so high on Gateways? Follow up where do you see Gateways landing DOM?

With Duck Hunt my comparison was more something like Muppets 2011 than Ralph Breaks the Internet, and it would be more or less coasting on the lack of competing family fare. Gateways is a much larger production (and so far better received) and Endless Animation has built a pretty strong brand name, so I think being poised as a semi-successor to Can You Imagine? is a huge benefit when having Christmas almost all to itself.

 

It follows the same calendar as Rogue One so worst case scenario would be $310m if it does open that high, but I think $350m+ with a chance at $400m would be possible.

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5 minutes ago, Spaghetti said:

Gateways obviously will have better legs than Hobbit/Star Wars though. I think Sing with a bigger OW is the best comp.

Sing was a Wednesday release and later in the calendar, so the OW would naturally be much lower. Gateways lone problem is that its 2nd Saturday would fall on the 24th, so a weekend drop over 40% isn't out of the question.

 

Christmas is something you have to calculate on a day-to-day basis since the multis vary wildly depending on what day falls where.

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July

 

Bummer Camp: $25.6M/$31.4M/$38.9M/$90.2M

He-Man IV: The Sons of the Serpent: $71.2M/$82.5M/$205.4M

Yolanda Dreams of Yoghurt: $0.1M/$4.6M/$20.1M

Plus One: $51.7M/$201.1M

The Academy: $8.89M/$27.6M

God of War: Kingdom Come: $49.1M/$112.3M

Borrasca: $62.5M/$147.6M

Hoops 2: $11.1M/$40.2M

De Blob: $47.9M/$185.4M

Edited by YourMother the Edgelord
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