YM! Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 19 minutes ago, cookie said: With Duck Hunt my comparison was more something like Muppets 2011 than Ralph Breaks the Internet, and it would be more or less coasting on the lack of competing family fare. Gateways is a much larger production (and so far better received) and Endless Animation has built a pretty strong brand name, so I think being poised as a semi-successor to Can You Imagine? is a huge benefit when having Christmas almost all to itself. It follows the same calendar as Rogue One so worst case scenario would be $310m if it does open that high, but I think $350m+ with a chance at $400m would be possible. Still there’s no major animation/kids fare from de Blob to Duck Hunt. I think it should do well as this is Shining Star’s third animation after Thymes and Olive. And reviews are solid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethan Hunt Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 (edited) May Mass Effect Ascension-113/316 Brinklebary Armageddon- 5/12 Facepaint- 25/60 Lumberjanes: Secret of the Eyes- 55/225 Double Chronomance- 13/36 Green Arrow- 48/125 June Teyyonah and Renegates: A Righteous Sextet - 30 total pikimin- 21/65 The App: Jeremy Rennner App the movie- 15/29 USS Seawolf- 34/105 Forgiveness- 18/48 Rhino Riders- 35/112 Bummer Camp- 23/62 July He Man: The Son of the Serpent- 68/181 Yolanda's Dream for Yogurt- 90 total Plus One 39/140 The Academy-22/51 God of War: Kingdom Come- 26/59 Borrasca- 31/71 Hoops 2- 7/19 De Blob- 42/151 August Schadenfreude- 25 Total The Who's Tommy- 28/67 338 AM- 14/34 The Ancient Magus Bride and the King of Cats- 47/123 Hired Guns- 36/116 Wolves- 10/31 Broadway Select: Network- 6/15 The Girlfriend Hoax- 31 total Edited October 29, 2019 by Ethan Hunt 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4815162342 Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 (edited) September The Feminist- 0.11 Limited OW/4.5 Wide Expansion/9.7 Wider Expansion/31.0 DOM Turbulence- 28.8 3-DAY/35.7 4-DAY/70.4 DOM Live2ream- 16.4 OW/46.1 DOM All-Nighter- 10.2 OW/32.8 DOM The Last Policeman- 22.4 OW/76.9 DOM Baseball Boy: The Base Thief: 18.5 OW/63.1 DOM The Horn: 23.6 OW/63.8 DOM October Shiverin' Gulch: 42.6 OW/143.4 DOM Day of the Tentacle: 17.3 OW/56.8 DOM The Trapped Keeper- 13.2 OW/52.0 DOM Thirsty: 16.4 OW/59.7 DOM Fiesta Loca: 50.1 OW/164.5 DOM Voicemail: 30.1 OW/77.2 DOM November Off-Road: 56.2 OW/133.6 DOM Paradise Island: 0.18 Limited OW/7.6 Wide Expansion/12.4 Widest Expansion/64.8 DOM Spring Awakening: 14.7 OW/50.4 DOM In the Aeroplane Over the Sea: 9.8 OW/33.6 DOM Understand: 13.2 OW/34.2 DOM One Big Family: 25.8 OW/64.9 DOM XJ-9: Rebirth: 72.7 OW/227.1 DOM Duck Hunt: 44.1 3-DAY/67.9 5-DAY/186.5 DOM December Jingle Hell: 21.5 OW/51.6 DOM Bleach: 61.2 OW/190.4 DOM LucIId: 53.0 OW/137.6 DOM Gateways: 64.7 OW/301.2 DOM The Most Wanted Man in Great Britain: 26.3 OW/135.2 DOM Guardians of the Internet: 34.1 OW/140.6 DOM Thawed: 10.3 OW/30.2 DOM The Neon Psalms: 7.5 CHRISTMAS DAY/44.0 DOM Edited October 7, 2019 by 4815162342 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reddroast Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 Those Bleach numbers make me happy @4815162342 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted October 9, 2019 Author Share Posted October 9, 2019 @Xillix edited my Q2 Predicts. Anyways... JULY: Bummer Camp - $25.7M/$90.2M He-Man IV: Sons of the Serpent - $80.2M/$226.1M Yolanda Dreams of Yogurt - $150k/$4.5M/$27.8M Plus One - $42.6M/$183.7M The Academy - $6.7M/$17.9M God of War: Kingdom Come - $43.5M/$108.9M Borrasca - $57.2M/$150.8M Hoops 2 - $11.6M/$37.5M De Blob - $44.7M/$162.4M AUGUST: Schadenfreude - $400k/$2.7M/$17.2M Tommy - $24.1M/$67.7M 3:38 AM - $4.7M/$11.1M The Ancient Magus Bride and the King of Cats - $40.3M/$127.9M Hired Guns - $28.4M/$105.9M Wolves - $7.2M/$25.3M Broadway Selects: Network - $6.5M/$15.7M The Girlfriend Hoax - $180k/$3.6M/$17.9M SEPTEMBER: The Feminist - $300k/$5.1M/$36.7M Turbulence - $34.8M/$110.4M Live2ream - $17.6M/$41.9M All-Nighter - $15.2M/$52.7M The Last Policeman - $33.7M/$119.5M Baseball Boy II: The Base Thief - $19.4M/$70.0M The Horn - $26.7M/$82.2M 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reddroast Posted October 12, 2019 Share Posted October 12, 2019 May Mass effect 2 125.9 OW/ 275 DOM/725 WW Brickleberry 3.21 OW/7.1 Dom/7.5 WW Facepaint 16.6 OW/36.7 Dom/75ww Lumberjanes 45.5 OW/112.1 Dom/ 219.6 WW Double chonomance 17.4 OW/39.5 Dom/59 WW Green Arrow 59.9 OW/178.6 Dom/510 WW JUNE Pikmin 28.8 OW/ 58.6 dom/165 WW Teyonnah 21.5 OW/63.4 Dom/85 WW USS Seawolf 75.8 ow/ 173 dom/ 432 Ww The app 12.8 OW/32.6 Dom/43 WW Forgiveness 21.3 OW/43 dom/61 ww Rhino riders: 6.9 OW/16 Dom/26 ww Bummer camp 14 OW/30 dom/34 ww July He man 4 37.3 OW/104.6 Dom/209.5 WW Yolanda dreams of yogurt 16.81 OW/38 dom/46 WW Plus one 43.5 ow/135.7 dom/200.6 WW The academy 38.2 ow/101 Dom/125 WW God of war 3 59.3 ow/179.1 Dom/ 252.8 WW Borrasca 93.6 Ow/261.5 Dom/588 WW Hoops 2 11.4 OW/25.4 Dom/61 ww De blob 43.5 Ow/129.9 Dom/356 WW August Schadenfreude 6.3 ow/13.7 Dom/36.5 WW Tommy 74.2 OW/193.7 Dom/346.9WW AMB 1. 41.1 OW/ 86 Dom/361.7WW 3:38 am 9.5 ow/31 dom/52 ww Hired guns 39.9 OW/114.6 Dom/169 WW The girlfriend hoax 19.6 OW/39.2 dom/44.4 WW Wolves 8.1 OW/19.5 Dom/48 WW Broadway: Network 8.7 OW/18.9 Dom/39.3 ww September The feminist 20.2 Ow/57.6 dom/84 WW Turbulence 44.2 OW/101.1 dom/185 WW All nighter 6.8 ow/21 dom/31 WW The last policeman 79.7 OW/165.6 dom,/286 WW Baseball boy 2. 46.1 ow/ 101.1 Dom /141 ww The horn 23.5 ow/56.2 Dom/98.1 ww October Shivering Gulch 159 OW/327.3 Dom/645.5 ww Day of the tentacle 32.5 Ow/ 75.6 Dom/111 WW The trapped keeper 25.3 OW/ 69 dom/94.7 WW Thirsty 42.2 ow/135 Dom/205 WW Fiesta loca 28.1 OW/64 Dom/123.4 WW Voicemail 36.3 OW/71.3/129.6 November Paradise Island 34.3 ow/72.2 Dom/129.4 WW Off road 32.1 ow/108.3 dom /163.7 WW Spring awakening 43.2 ow/115 Dom/246 WW Understand 22.2 ow/44.4 Dom/72.5 WW In the aeroplane over the sea 13.2 ow/28.3 dom/35.3 WW One big family 21.4 ow/53 dom/64 WW XJ9 137.3 OW/341 DOM/ 501 WW Duck Hunt 35.2 OW/128.2 Dom/212 WW December Jingle hell 29.9 ow/86 Dom/ 104 ww Bleach 78.6 ow/298 dom/582 WW Luciid 32.5 ow/142dom/372 WW Gateways 184.6 ow/ 420 Dom/ 1.25b WW The most wanted man in great Britain 47.5 ow/150 Dom/569 ww Thawed 13.2 ow/26.4 dom/ 33 WW The neon psalms 39.2 ow/ 133 dom/287.5 WW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted October 12, 2019 Author Share Posted October 12, 2019 @Reddroast I'd look into multipliers a bit more - some of the films you've mentioned have kinda unrealistically poor legs. In general, the cut-off for good and bad legs is around 3.3x, with 2.5-3x being better for bigger blockbusters. Most things in the summer, expect very big films, should get over 3x. Maybe 4x if they have good WOM and/or target families and have little competition. Over fall, multipliers are a bit smaller, but again, good WOM and reviews can make a film leg out a bit longer. A film would have to have pretty bad reviews/mixed WOM or have a BIG rush factor to have a multiplier under 2.5x. To make predictions, I usually compare CAYOM films to real world equivalents to get a good sense of where they'd land. For example, it's VERY unlikely that the Last Policeman will get anywhere close to that number, but similar performances in CAYOM and the real world could indicate a weekend around the 30s. Just wanted to give you some pointers on how to make stronger predictions! 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted October 12, 2019 Author Share Posted October 12, 2019 (edited) nvm Edited October 12, 2019 by Spaghetti Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reddroast Posted October 12, 2019 Share Posted October 12, 2019 11 minutes ago, Spaghetti said: @Reddroast I'd look into multipliers a bit more - some of the films you've mentioned have kinda unrealistically poor legs. In general, the cut-off for good and bad legs is around 3.3x, with 2.5-3x being better for bigger blockbusters. Most things in the summer, expect very big films, should get over 3x. Maybe 4x if they have good WOM and/or target families and have little competition. Over fall, multipliers are a bit smaller, but again, good WOM and reviews can make a film leg out a bit longer. A film would have to have pretty bad reviews/mixed WOM or have a BIG rush factor to have a multiplier under 2.5x. To make predictions, I usually compare CAYOM films to real world equivalents to get a good sense of where they'd land. For example, it's VERY unlikely that the Last Policeman will get anywhere close to that number, but similar performances in CAYOM and the real world could indicate a weekend around the 30s. Just wanted to give you some pointers on how to make stronger predictions! Ok thanks for the tips. This is my first time doing traditional predictions so I thought most were ok. I apologize for making an issue out of this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted October 12, 2019 Author Share Posted October 12, 2019 Just now, Reddroast said: Ok thanks for the tips. This is my first time doing traditional predictions so I thought most were ok. I apologize for making an issue out of this Oh no it's not an issue! You're learning. And believe me, as much as I'd love XJ9 to make a $135m+ OW.....I will eat my hair if that happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted October 12, 2019 Share Posted October 12, 2019 Do you remember, the 21st night of SEPTEMBER? The Feminist - $295k/$4.62M/$33.6M Turbulence - $37.3M/$105.1M Live2ream - $18.2M/$48.8M All-Nighter - $8.78M/$31.2M The Last Policeman - $39.2M/$121.7M Baseball Boy II: The Base Thief - $28.5M/$100.1M The Horn - $23.4M/$72.2M 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted October 12, 2019 Author Share Posted October 12, 2019 OCTOBER Shiverin Gulch' - $55.2M/$180.9M Day of the Tentacle - $14.8M/$41.2M The Trapped Keeper - $17.4M/$64.3M Thirsty - $25.9M/$83.5M Fiesta Loca - $47.2M/$145.0M Voicemail- $47.8M/$129.2M NOVEMBER Off-Road - $43.2M/$138.7M Paradise Island - $400k/$8.1M/$102.9M Spring Awakening - $28.6M/$93.7M In the Aeroplane Over... - $16.2M/$48.4M Understand - $15.2M/$36.7M One Big Family- $20.7M/$53.1M XJ9: Rebirth - $68.8M/$220.5M Duck Hunt - $43.7M/$178.3M DECEMBER Jingle Hell - $27.1M/$78.4M Bleach - $49.5M/$183.1M Lucid - $32.7M/$125.9M Gateways - $67.2M/$416.8M The Most Wanted Man... - $24.7M/$160.4M Guardians of the Internet - $19.2M/$130.5M Thawed - $9.2M/$38.8M The Neon Psalms - $6.1M/$54.2M 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cookie Posted October 12, 2019 Share Posted October 12, 2019 Uppin' The Last Policeman to $33.63m and Shiverin' Gulch to $52.87m 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rorschach Posted October 12, 2019 Share Posted October 12, 2019 (edited) Gonna post the months in groups of three when I finish each of them. January Broadway Selects: The Band's Visit - $6.5m All Kinds of Bull - $11.2m/$14m Espionage Project - $35.1m/$41.6m Making Waves - $9.9/$14.1m Walking with You - $24.7m The Power of Love - $41.6m February Dog Models - $8.8m VR Troopers - $16.6m Chuck Norris and Liam Neeson vs. the Current Hollywood Landscape - $39.7m Down and Dirty - $6.7m Thomas Was Alone - $8.9m Meme Thief - $4.8m/$5.6m Pokemon: The Cinnabar Conspiracy - $134.4m/$158m Little Black Bugs - $21.3m March Rapsittie Street Kids: A Bunny's Tale - $2.1m Spark: A Hero's Promise - $265.9m AJR: Neotheater - $4.6m The Fairly OddParents - $22.8m The Con Gone Wrong - $22.7m total Thermal - $49m Irreplaceable - $18m Edited October 12, 2019 by Rorschach 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethan Hunt Posted October 12, 2019 Share Posted October 12, 2019 (edited) September- Turbulence 21/46 The Feminiest 35 total The Last Policeman- 24/78 Live2tream- 14/36 All Nighter- 6/22 Baseball Boy:The Base Thief-24/88 The Horn- 14/41 October Shivern’ Gulch- 51/174 Day of the Tentacle- 16/40 The Trapped Keeper- 19/74 Thirsty- 28/89 Fiesta Loca- 21/58 Voicemail- 32/88 Edited October 29, 2019 by Ethan Hunt 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted October 13, 2019 Share Posted October 13, 2019 (edited) October Shiverin Gulch' - $62.3M/$200.2M Day of the Tentacle - $16.6M/$48.2M The Trapped Keeper - $12.2M/$40.8M Thirsty - $22.9M/$81.2M Fiesta Loca - $38.8M/$112.4M Voicemail- $40.2M/$90.5M Edited November 13, 2019 by YourMother the Edgelord 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted October 13, 2019 Share Posted October 13, 2019 (edited) November Off-Road - $56.2M/$141.9M Paradise Island - $550K/$11.8M/$101.2M Spring Awakening - $25.5M/$83.7M In the Aeroplane Over... - $16.7M/$43.9M Understand - $12.3M/$33.5M One Big Family- $21.4M/$57.6M XJ9: Rebirth - $62.1M/$176.6M Duck Hunt - $47.2M/$69.3M/$200.1M Edited November 8, 2019 by YourMother the Edgelord 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 (edited) December Jingle Hell - $33.4M/$85.6M Bleach - $52.5M/$178.5M Lucid - $28.4M/$101.3M Gateways - $71.2M/$405.4M The Most Wanted Man... - $39.9M/$201.3M Guardians of the Internet - $18.5M/$92.6M Thawed - $11.2M/$33.6M The Neon Psalms - $7.7M/$58.4M Edited November 13, 2019 by YourMother the Edgelord 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 @Xillix - upped Thirsty to a $27.9M OW and $90.1M DOM 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cookie Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 Downgrading my Jeremy Renner App predict to $8.45m until further notice. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
