Weekend Thread: Abominable 20.85, Downton 14.5 (-53%), Hustlers 11.5 (-32%), It2 10.4 (-39%), Ad Astra 10.1 (-47%), Rambo 8.6 (-55%), Judy 3.1

[sfran43]

That's awful for a 6pm start.

[TalismanRing]

28 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

I'm betting Spidey ends up in Dr Strange's movie...they had GREAT chemistry in Infinity War, and they already have Iron Man for Black Widow...and Dr Strange orbitting Spidey's world could help Spidey in his own right now...

Strange is going to have Wanda and it's going to get more magical so I'm not sure if Spidey would fit well

 

It might be BP2 if SM3 winds up with Kraven the hunter - one could lead into the other.

 

Which means it might wind up Shang-Chi.

[narniadis]

Ouch ouch ouch for that opening number. Hopefully it recovers somewhat but 20m is definitely not a guarantee at all. 

[kitik]

1 hour ago, Jonwo said:

I'm surprised they've gone for mid July rather than say the first weekend of July or July 9th since Indy V will likely be delayed again.

 

Batman is the last week of June, so it makes sense to wait a few extra weeks for Spidey.

[Cap]

59 minutes ago, DAJK said:

lol so all the doom and gloom and online twitter rants for nothing

So, Tuesday on Internet?

 

30 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

Well, that’s certainly gonna through off our overall accuracy percentage for the Tracking Thread. 

[kitik]

25 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Which means it might wind up Shang-Chi.

 

Simu Liu just posted a picture of Spidey.

 

Could just be for fun, or maybe the Marvel snipers are going to have to start following him around now instead of Tom Holland and Mark Ruffalo.

[Eric Atreides]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-forecast-frozen-ii-a-beautiful-day-in-the-neighborhood-and-21-bridges/

 

8-Week Forecast

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Range	3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast	% Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Forecast	% Chg from Last Week	Estimated Location Count	Distributor
10/4/2019	Joker	$85,000,000 – $105,000,000	$101,000,000	-2%	$210,000,000		4,000	Warner Bros.
10/11/2019	The Addams Family (2019)	$21,000,000 – $26,000,000	$23,000,000	28%	$88,000,000	26%	3,400	United Artists Releasing
10/11/2019	The Current War (Expansion)	n/a	n/a		n/a		n/a	101 Studios
10/11/2019	Gemini Man	$26,000,000 – $31,000,000	$28,000,000		$85,000,000		3,400	Paramount
10/11/2019	Jexi	$7,000,000 – $12,000,000	$7,500,000	-6%	$20,000,000	-20%	2,500	Lionsgate / CBS Films / Entertainment One
10/18/2019	Maleficent: Mistress of Evil	$40,000,000 – $55,000,000	$40,000,000	8%	$120,000,000	9%		Disney
10/18/2019	Zombieland 2: Double Tap	$24,000,000 – $34,000,000	$30,000,000		$77,000,000			Sony / Columbia
10/25/2019	Black and Blue	$10,000,000 – $15,000,000	$12,000,000		$35,000,000			Sony / Screen Gems
10/25/2019	Countdown	$13,000,000 – $18,000,000	$14,000,000	NEW	$33,000,000	NEW		STX
10/25/2019	The Last Full Measure	n/a	n/a		n/a			Roadside Attractions
11/1/2019	Arctic Dogs	$5,000,000 – $10,000,000	$7,000,000		$24,500,000			Entertainment Studios
11/1/2019	Harriet	n/a	n/a		n/a			Focus Features
11/1/2019	Motherless Brooklyn	$7,000,000 – $12,000,000	n/a		n/a			Warner Bros.
11/1/2019	Terminator: Dark Fate	$35,000,000 – $45,000,000	$38,000,000		$85,000,000			Paramount
11/8/2019	Doctor Sleep	$20,000,000 – $30,000,000	$25,000,000		$92,000,000			Warner Bros.
11/8/2019	Last Christmas	$12,000,000 – $17,000,000	$15,000,000		$80,000,000			Universal
11/8/2019	Midway	$10,000,000 – $15,000,000	$13,000,000		$47,000,000			Lionsgate
11/8/2019	Playing with Fire	$7,000,000 – $12,000,000	$8,000,000		$33,000,000			Paramount
11/15/2019	All Rise	n/a	n/a		n/a			Entertainment Studios
11/15/2019	Charlie’s Angels (2019)	$25,000,000 – $35,000,000	$29,000,000		$78,000,000			Sony / Columbia
11/15/2019	The Good Liar	$7,000,000 – $12,000,000	n/a		n/a			Warner Bros.
11/15/2019	Ford v. Ferrari	$25,000,000 – $35,000,000	$32,000,000		$115,000,000			Fox
11/22/2019	21 Bridges	$9,000,000 – $14,000,000	$10,000,000	NEW	$34,000,000	NEW		STX
11/22/2019	A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood	$16,000,000 – $21,000,000	$19,000,000	NEW	$105,000,000	NEW		Sony / Columbia
11/22/2019	Frozen 2	$115,000,000 – $145,000,000	$125,000,000	NEW	$450,000,000	NEW		Disney

[DAJK]

57 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

So, Tuesday on Internet?

 

Well, that’s certainly gonna through off our overall accuracy percentage for the Tracking Thread. 

My $0 figure will help balance things out 

[Maxmoser3]

We shouldn’t doom and gloom yet. But at least we’ve had Downton Abbey and Hustlers do excellent this month! 

[narniadis]

Good starting point for Frozen! Would love to see it become absolutely huge but expecting anything more substantial than a 4x is a bit crazy. 

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, sfran43 said:

That's awful for a 6pm start.

Friday ain't any better.

[DAJK]

25 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Friday ain't any better.

Any chance it gets to 20? (my Survivor requires it)

[DAJK]

I will say, Abominable didn't look insanely appealing from the trailers. Sure, maybe the end product is good, but it didn't feel like it stood out from any other crop of animated movies. Similar themes, similar story etc. etc. They needed to convey why THIS movie is special, and I think they failed there. 

[charlie Jatinder]

9 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Any chance it gets to 20? (my Survivor requires it)

I won't weight on it but I guess 3.75-4mn range true Friday, the number are small, so a good swing in late hours can push it up.

Edited September 27, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[Ledmonkey96]

4 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

I won't weight on it but I guess 3.75-4mn range true Friday, the number are small, so a good swing in late hours can push it up.

What are the chances it falls below Wonder Parks 15.8mil? Seems pretty possible at this point.

[Eric Atreides]

https://deadline.com/2019/09/abominable-downton-abbey-hustlers-weekend-box-office-1202746278/

 

Quote

2nd Update: Dreamworks Animation/Pearl Studio’s yeti film Abominable is looking at an opening day of $5.4M and $18M-$20M opening this weekend. How high that goes, of course, boils down to word of mouth kicking into Saturday matinees. Parents gave the movie 4 stars on PostTrak last night with kids under 12 grading it 3 1/2 stars.

 

Turnout was 50% general-50% families with moms at 64% leading the way. There was also an even split between girls and boys under 12 with the latter enjoying the movie more at 83% positive. General demos saw females under 25 at a 31% turnout, females over 25 at 27%, males under 25 at 22%, and males over 25 at 20%. Diversity demos showed 46% Caucasian, 28% Hispanic, 13% African American and 11% Asian.

 

[CoolioD1]

i dunno if it's my age where specifically in the last year whenever there's some new animation that's not a big disney thing that comes out i'm always like "what the fuck is this". i found out about abominable yesterday. didn't this already come out last year?

[Eric Atreides]

Update from DL

 

Quote

Focus Features’ second weekend of Downton Abbey is currently seeing $13.2M, -57% off a second Friday of $4M, -71%. Remember, that steep decline is due to the fact that last weekend’s opening included $4.3M worth of previews. Wouldn’t be surprised given the repeat business for the period pic if grosses go higher. Running total by Sunday looks to be $57.2M.

 

[Eric Atreides]

7 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

i dunno if it's my age where specifically in the last year whenever there's some new animation that's not a big disney thing that comes out i'm always like "what the fuck is this". i found out about abominable yesterday. didn't this already come out last year?

Classic Katzenberg.

Edited September 27, 2019 by Eric!

[Eric Atreides]

Final (I assume) updates from DL for today

 

Quote

Next, STX’s Hustlers is beating last weekend’s openers Ad Astra and Rambo Last Blood in their second periods with $10.3M, -39% for a running 17 day total of $79.4M. Jennifer Lopez and Constance Wu are also beating New Line’s It Chapter 2 which is seeing $9.1M in weekend 4, -46% with a running total of $192.6M. Fox/Disney’s Ad Astra is posting a second weekend of $8.9M, -53% for a running total of $34.2M while Millennium/Lionsgate’s Rambo Last Blood is grossing $8M, -57% for a 10-day of $32.5M.

 

Expected, but still disappointing for last week's releases if those numbers hold