Spider-Man: No Way Home | December 17, 2021 | The More Fun Stuff Version (yes, that's what it's called) comes to theaters September 2nd!

[Fox20]

I did not know Marvel was one person on top of that.

[Legion Again]

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Weekend interal multi would be like TLJ/TFA only. Only change needed is THU/OD, which would be on higher end of MCU i.e. 37-38%.

Like I said above, thinking calendar fit is TFA>>RO>TROS>> TLJ

 

Here’s a table with SW data and some rough input for NWH.  
 

Movie	Th	TFri	Sat	Sun	prev %	Fri/Th	Sat/Fri	Sun/Sat	true IM	IM
TFA	$54,000,000	$65,119,282	$68,294,204	$60,553,189	0.4533	1.2059	1.0488	0.8867	2.9786	4.5920
RO	$29,000,000	$42,094,394	$46,308,115	$37,679,172	0.4079	1.4515	1.1001	0.8137	2.9952	5.3476
TLJ	$45,000,000	$59,684,491	$63,993,205	$51,331,888	0.4299	1.3263	1.0722	0.8021	2.9322	4.8891
TROS	$40,000,000	$49,615,288	$47,467,565	$40,301,011	0.4464	1.2404	0.9567	0.8490	2.7690	4.4346
Geomean	$40,974,727	$53,376,823	$55,672,784	$46,610,674	0.4340	1.3027	1.0430	0.8372	2.9174	4.8035
weighted(5:3:1:2)	$42,448,584	$54,590,792	$57,157,654	$48,671,360	0.4371	1.2860	1.0470	0.8515	2.9396	4.7837
NWH	36000000	60000000	64800000	55080000	0.3750	1.6667	1.0800	0.8500	2.9980	5.9967

[cdsacken]

2 hours ago, KP1025 said:

 

To be precise, $2 billion requires around a 77% increase from FFH. I know that seems like an extremely difficult ask for a sequel, but NWH should be treated more like an Avengers-level event at this point rather than just another Spider-Man film. Now it's certainly possible that it underperforms significantly relative to its unprecedented trailer views, but I'll wait until presales start before ruling anything out of the realm of possibility. 

 

Trailer views do not necessarily indicate that it's treated like endgame. It's absolutely not a culmination anything even remotely similar to endgame. The extra cast members and Doctor strange makes it super attractive and I can't wait to see it. However the anticipation for me on this is maybe an 8 in comparison for end game. Even Infinity war was a 9.

[Shawn Robbins]

11 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I don't see any reference to Sony officially giving these numbers, so I won't pay much attention to 355M precisely but it was certainly a record with 300M+ possible.

 

@Shawn any word from Sony officially.

Yep, 355.5 million came directly from Sony. Comp'ed to Endgame (289M) and FFH (135M) in the same press release.

[charlie Jatinder]

5 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I wasn't paying much attention to estimating its possible WW gross but there seems great interest in that, so will do today.

So I did a provisional test and yes if there is absolutely no CoVID by end of year, NWH can target $1-1.15B internationally. Coupled with $500-625M in DOM, can go for $1.5-1.78B WW.

As for CoVID adjustment, deduct $150-200M of this probably.

[Noctis]

But it's true...aside from Eternals, the Marvel movies are some of the most bland looking blockbusters. 

[RealLyre]

yeah with this hype this movie would've done Endgame numbers pre-pandemic. I think its better that its released now because whether No Way Home does 1.5B, 2B or 2.5B now it will show us a close estimation of how endgame would've done if it released post pandemic.

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

yeah with this hype this movie would've done Endgame numbers pre-pandemic.

Woah woah woah woah woah woah woah. I’m an NWH bull but this is going way overboard. It has hype. Mega hype. Maybe TFA or DH2 or IW level hype — don’t think so tbh but it’s hard to tell. Definitely not Endgame level.

[charlie Jatinder]

8 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Maybe TFA or DH2 or IW level hype — don’t think so tbh but it’s hard to tell. Definitely not Endgame level.

Not TFA level in parts of western world. Can put TFA in West in same bracket as A:EG, overall under A:IW. DH2 would be bigger too in western world.

I think may be close to BvS, TDKR, The Avengers, Iron Man 3 hype.

Edited August 26, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Legion Again]

Surely AoU will have more than TA? And TLJ less than TFA but could make top 10. I2 also perhaps in contention.     
 

We already have list of #1 openers over time, but could be interesting sometime to compile list of record movies which opened #2 over time, #3, etc. Strong overlap between being one of the most hyped movies in a period and coming at least 3rd place OW. 

[Chicago]

8 hours ago, cdsacken said:

 

Needs more than great reception to hit 2b even without a pandemic. Needs universal love. I swear people think it's frickin easy 

 

Titanic rereleased like 5 times and had girls going to see it 10 times. Avatar had the best 3d adoption rate ever. Hell I'm still not convinced avatar 2 has 2b locked.

 

And endgame made 2.8 billion because it had little boys watching it 10 times in a weekend.

 

Avatar probably has 2b OS locked. It's china gross could approach 1b as it is. Avatar also came out when most theatres were yet to adopt 3D so it could have been much bigger. I don't get why people still underestimate A2, the guy knows how to get bums in seats, if anything, not being a superhero movie might help Avatar alot

 

 

Edited August 26, 2021 by Chicago

[CJohn]

[AndyK]

It's quite exiting to follow something that has an actual box office hit potential.

 

Been a while.

[excel1]

ENDGAME is the most anticipated film in history by a fair amount. This is obviously not going to approach that films hype levels. This is the first real Marvel trailer to be released in forever and is easily the most high profile fit to open since cover began. Trailer view numbers will prove misleading no doubt.  

[Chicago]

I remember Jurassic World's trailer having massive views yet no article ever predicted it to be the hit it was. I won't make the same mistake with this. Spider-Man has smashed the OW record twice already, I wouldn't be surprised to see it top IW's opening. Endgame though seems too out of reach for anything in the foreseable future

[Valonqar]

43 minutes ago, excel1 said:

ENDGAME is the most anticipated film in history by a fair amount. This is obviously not going to approach that films hype levels. This is the first real Marvel trailer to be released in forever and is easily the most high profile fit to open since cover began. Trailer view numbers will prove misleading no doubt.  

 

And what are SC and Eternals, fake Marvel? No shame in admiting that this is attracting way more attention than the other 2 which is perfectly normal. SC and E are new, untested. SM is tried and true plus with a huge bonus which is 3 beloved SM in the same movie. 

 

It's just that "Holland is the only beloved Parker" crowd underestimated how much people loved Tobey and Andrew in particular the latter was underestimated af. I still remember denial that he would be in the movie when Jamie Foxx was announced to return as Electro. They said nobody cared about Andy. Well, OS certainly cared more about his Parker than about Steve Rogers and GOTG in 2014. 

 

Perfect storm is coming Mr Wayne. 

 

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

I don't think this has Endgame level hype just from rough estimation from friend circles. I also think this movie will overindex in online metrics since 2000s nostalgia has become very popular online in recent years (Raimi memes). But I do think it may have IW level hype.

[charlie Jatinder]

15 minutes ago, Menor said:

I don't think this has Endgame level hype just from rough estimation from friend circles. I also think this movie will overindex in online metrics since 2000s nostalgia has become very popular online in recent years (Raimi memes). But I do think it may have IW level hype.

IW hype is too big.

I suppose over/under TDKR at max.
 

[charlie Jatinder]

https://www.instagram.com/p/CS8HbPlJ_Z8/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

LOL

[cdsacken]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

IW hype is too big.

I suppose over/under TDKR at max.
 

Now the question is will it beat TDKR box office numbers globally, and bonus will it beat it inflation adjusted.

 

I'm hoping for yes for the first one I think the second one is unlikely.