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Eric Atreides

Spider-Man: No Way Home | December 17, 2021 | The More Fun Stuff Version (yes, that's what it's called) comes to theaters September 2nd!

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1 hour ago, dudalb said:

Anybody know how close this film is to completion?

I ask because the looming strike by the tech unions against the studios could shut down  post production on this film,resulting in a delay if it is not complete..and given that work on most films happens right up to the drop dead date .which is usually not more then a couple of weeks before the film opens, and often less..we could see a delay.

They already have start the renegotiation,so i doubt that this will be delayed

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5 minutes ago, john2000 said:

They already have start the renegotiation,so i doubt that this will be delayed

Most reports are not that optimistic; and since NWH is in post, if it happens NWH will almost certainly be delayed. I hope a strike does not happen, but I 100%support the workers here. They have been forced to worked long,long hours to the point of exhausation for minimal overtime pay. It's a health issue, really.

I

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4 hours ago, Mojoguy said:

I can't imagine how devastating it would be for theaters if NWH doesnt get released this Dec.

 

Why wouldn't it? Case counts are plummeting, and by the time it comes out 10+ million newly vaccinated kids 5-11?

 

Numbers should be great. Considering Christmas is on a Saturday and most will have Friday off (NYSE holiday and Federal Holiday) it's going to have a banging good first week and an amazing 2nd week.

 

Some are predicting insanity like 225 OW in just America despite a pandemic. I'm happy to stretch for 250m for 7 days (FFH did 195m in the summer not in a pandemic directly after End Game with Iron Man link). This has nostalgia, other Spiderman, Dr Strange (massive drop off from Ironman link) but multi verse angle is sick. Still accounting for what will be at the very least 25% of the entire country still not vaccinated in a pandemic where case counts will start rising again a 28% increase in 2 years seems pretty damn generous

 

Now what I will say, 2nd week will be awesome. FFH did 280m in 14 days. Gimme way more 350m in 14 days domestic maybe more. Hell 370 wouldn't shock me one bit.

 

I just hope it comes out in China and dominates.

Edited by cdsacken
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15 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

 

Why wouldn't it? Case counts are plummeting, and by the time it comes out 10+ million newly vaccinated kids 5-11?

 

Numbers should be great. Considering Christmas is on a Saturday and most will have Friday off (NYSE holiday and Federal Holiday) it's going to have a banging good first week and an amazing 2nd week.

 

Some are predicting insanity like 225 OW in just America despite a pandemic. I'm happy to stretch for 250m for 7 days (FFH did 195m in the summer not in a pandemic directly after End Game with Iron Man link). This has nostalgia, other Spiderman, Dr Strange (massive drop off from Ironman link) but multi verse angle is sick. Still accounting for what will be at the very least 25% of the entire country still not vaccinated in a pandemic where case counts will start rising again a 28% increase in 2 years seems pretty damn generous

 

Now what I will say, 2nd week will be awesome. FFH did 280m in 14 days. Gimme way more 350m in 14 days domestic maybe more. Hell 370 wouldn't shock me one bit.

 

I just hope it comes out in China and dominates.

The fear is that the movie might not be finished in time with the IATSE strike. 

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18 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Some are predicting insanity like 225 OW in just America despite a pandemic. I'm happy to stretch for 250m for 7 days (FFH did 195m in the summer not in a pandemic directly after End Game with Iron Man link). This has nostalgia, other Spiderman, Dr Strange (massive drop off from Ironman link) but multi verse angle is sick. Still accounting for what will be at the very least 25% of the entire country still not vaccinated in a pandemic where case counts will start rising again a 28% increase in 2 years seems pretty damn generous

Trailer views 355 million vs 135 for FFH. Don't tell me that this is normal sequel growth. 

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3 minutes ago, Menor said:

Trailer views 355 million vs 135 for FFH. Don't tell me that this is normal sequel growth. 

I get it, people are excited but the pandemic does exist. It's not going away and case counts will rise probably 40 to 50% in late fall. It will keep people out. Hell thanks to Evan Hansen sucking I've been to ZERO movies since jan 2020.

 

No Pandemic, 99% RT score and it nails it sure 275m OW is possible. However, pandemic and Sony always screws up every movie a little bit. It won't be perfect just like FFH wasn't. Perhaps I will be wrong but 225 OW is projecting what 500 million domestic in 14 days? No way.

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11 hours ago, Mau said:

Do you guys have any bold box office prediction (minus China) ? If everything keeps getting better

I am thinking 175M OW and 600M best case scenario.

 

I would be on 200M train but Frozen II taught that holidays do spread business. In a normal OW, Frozen 2 was surely opening 175M+.

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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175 is like RO/TRO admits. I just don’t see how this will miss 30 previews with hype it has, and IM ~6. Put me down for like 185-230 depending on recovery and marketing.

Edited by Let There Be Legion
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On 10/7/2021 at 4:59 AM, cdsacken said:

I get it, people are excited but the pandemic does exist. It's not going away and case counts will rise probably 40 to 50% in late fall. It will keep people out. Hell thanks to Evan Hansen sucking I've been to ZERO movies since jan 2020.

 

No Pandemic, 99% RT score and it nails it sure 275m OW is possible. However, pandemic and Sony always screws up every movie a little bit. It won't be perfect just like FFH wasn't. Perhaps I will be wrong but 225 OW is projecting what 500 million domestic in 14 days? No way.

 

That's just Christmas legs for you. No-one expected TFA to make 930m despite a huge opening guaranteed to take place even though that's what holiday legs are famous for. Spiderman being released at Christmas is going to make them far more than it would have during a summer period.

 

Though yes there is still a pandemic and a worrying rise in cases and deaths could mute its performance, but if that doesn't happen (yes a big but) then I think it does the 500m in 14 days for about a 650-700m Dom finish. This actually puts it slightly lower than films like TDK and Spider-Man 2001 for tickets sold. We cant ignore those trailer views and the power of nostalgia so we already know this will open big

Edited by Chicago
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14 hours ago, Chicago said:

 

That's just Christmas legs for you. No-one expected TFA to make 930m despite a huge opening guaranteed to take place even though that's what holiday legs are famous for. Spiderman being released at Christmas is going to make them far more than it would have during a summer period.

 

Though yes there is still a pandemic and a worrying rise in cases and deaths could mute its performance, but if that doesn't happen (yes a big but) then I think it does the 500m in 14 days for about a 650-700m Dom finish. This actually puts it slightly lower than films like TDK and Spider-Man 2001 for tickets sold. We cant ignore those trailer views and the power of nostalgia so we already know this will open big

I agree that it'll open big however I don't believe that big we shall see. Legs have sucked balls thanks to covid and while the Christmas month will provide legs no matter what especially just where the day is fall how good it does I think will depend on reviews and pandemic numbers.

 

If the pandemic numbers are down and the reviews are amazing you might be right but 700 million is a massive stretch for domestic.

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