Spider-Man: No Way Home | December 17, 2021 | The More Fun Stuff Version (yes, that's what it's called) comes to theaters September 2nd!

[anti-Pedantic]

19 minutes ago, AJG said:

Some guy on Reddit paid $22 and leaked it for the world and that was only 5 hours ago. The speed of this spread is crazy

 

that track is beautiful

[Momori]

18 minutes ago, anti-Pedantic said:

that track is beautiful

THAT part got me ugly crying. I just heard it for the first time a few minutes ago and I experienced my entire childhood again. The memories in my brain just kept flashing. 

 

Edited December 5, 2021 by Momori

[Orestes]

That track might be Portalsesque.

[SpiderByte]

11 minutes ago, Orestes said:

That track might be Portalsesque.

May be more literal than you think IMO.

 

I haven't kept up with tracking so it may not be holding the same as Endgames, but man if this were the second 300 mil opener ever...imagine the theater for that. It'll be insane.

[XXR vs XXR]

7 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

haven't kept up with tracking so it may not be holding the same as Endgames, but man if this were the second 300 mil opener ever

 

It's running about 20-25% behind Endgame right now for previews. At this juncture I'd estimate OW at $240-275M. 

Edited December 5, 2021 by Multiverse of XXR

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, Multiverse of XXR said:

 

It's running about 20-25% behind Endgame right now for previews. At this juncture I'd estimate OW at $240-275M. 

Btw sales are a lot more frontloaded than Endgame per my data. Like the Fri/Th ratio in tickets was 1.3 for EG the Sat before release, for NWH maybe ~0.8. 

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

Btw sales are a lot more frontloaded than Endgame per my data. Like the Fri/Th ratio in tickets was 1.3 for EG the Sat before release, for NWH maybe ~0.8. 

 

So you're saying this is gonna be a supersized Solo?

 

 

[SpiderByte]

11 minutes ago, Orestes said:

That track might be Portalsesque.

May be more literal than you think IMO.

 

I haven't kept up with tracking so it may not be holding the same as Endgames, but man if this were the second 300 mil opener ever...imagine the theater for that. It'll be insane.

[Deep Wang]

12 minutes ago, Multiverse of XXR said:

 

So you're saying this is gonna be a supersized Solo?

 

 

 

You have to at least accept that is a possibility.  

 

This is a demo that hasn't been afraid to go to movies this year, as evidenced by the top ten movies.  But don't you kinda need children/families and other demos as well to reach $250m+?

 

[XXR vs XXR]

7 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

You have to at least accept that is a possibility.  

 

This is a demo that hasn't been afraid to go to movies this year, as evidenced by the top ten movies.  But don't you kinda need children/families and other demos as well to reach $250m+?

 

 

NWH will still nab enough of the children/families to get there. I don't see this falling below TLJ even if it's hugely front loaded. Previews should be 3-3.5x Solo, and IM probably 5.25-5.75x. So the range I think is $225-285M but I'd come up off the low and down off the high for something like $240-275M. 

Edited December 5, 2021 by Multiverse of XXR

[Cap]

5 hours ago, Momori said:

Man. This still doesn't seem real to me. 

 

I am not hyped for this at all, but I won’t lie. I watched this interview like five times last night. 😍 like, oh shit, maybe I am gonna lose my shit after all?! 🤔
 

 

29 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

You have to at least accept that is a possibility.  

 

This is a demo that hasn't been afraid to go to movies this year, as evidenced by the top ten movies.  But don't you kinda need children/families and other demos as well to reach $250m+?

 

I was gonna keep this to myself, but your post is kind of a perfect segue. I legit sent this to @Porthos last night:

 

So my issues with the Spiderman data, are unfortunately not really scientific. And therefore really aren’t worth posting it because they’re just gonna get dismissed as not Analytical, but more empirical. But privately I have a lot of thoughts.

 

First and foremost, I have no doubt this baby is going to be huge. It probably will make 200 million. I personally felt like 160-180 was always the goal, but I could see it doing something with the 2xx before it. That said:

 

I’m having a weird Detective Pokémon flashbacks. I feel like we are insulated in the perfect environment where the user base here is heavily in favor of NWH, and heavily in favor of watching it in a movie theater. You see that by their immediate correlation that breaking the all-time record and trailer views in the first 24 hours is going to automatically translate into some Endgame level financial success.

 

Obviously, I am very skeptical. Insert blah blah blah staffing shortage, blah blah blah Covid variant, blah blah blah lack of repeating shows, blah blah blah all the talking points you and I have discussed ad nauseam.
 

But what Bestie and I have been coming back to of late is: 

 

I don’t think the female fandom is going to show up. I don’t think we’re gonna get the big number the boys want.

 

If I have learned anything in the past four years that I’ve been here, it’s that the habits of a fanboy and a fangirl in terms of how they consume their media is incredibly different.

 

I think it boils down to the concept of spoilers. I have found that men are far more spoiler concerned. Most of the discussions are based on speculations. This is my new theory on how it’s all connected. I need to see it immediately or else I will be spoilers. That is why we’re are seeing increase in the male demos on opening weekends. They are frontloading the whole thing. 

Contrast this with fangirls that who literally have something called a “mistake” spoiler, Which is I want to know the entire plot of the movie, to make sure that it syncs up with exactly my worldview, otherwise I don’t want to go see it. (This legit happened with Eternals. It got so fucked with the tumblr crowd early on cause of the out of context Hiroshima spoiler that got out). 
 

Fangirls consume a significant amount of a fan art, fanfiction, and gifs sets. This is going to sound crazy, but I cannot tell you the amount of times I have run into people who have not seen something like Endgame, because it’s too upsetting that Tony Stark dies, yet they write Tony Stark fan fiction and they’re really active on Twitter. Still to this day!

 

All of those girls might be watching the trailer multiple times to see their fave fetus twink, But that doesn’t translate into tickets sold. No different than everyone watch Detective Pokémon trailer because the cute Pokes, but they didn’t go see the movie. 
 

The other thing is girl fandom has other MCU properties to distract them while they wait for either the crowds to die down, or they just wait to watch it on Disney+.  Eternals is dropping very soon. Hawkeye just will be just finishing up. They have fight 120674970210 over Wanda to entertain them. They haven’t really been coming out all year, and I don’t see any reason they’re going to start now.

 

And Porthos pointed out that a lot of the younger female fans are SUPER into the Zendaya and Tom ship. That translate them into obsessively following the press tour only to not show up opening weekend. 

[john2000]

6 minutes ago, Cap said:

 

I am not hyped for this at all, but I won’t lie. I watched this interview like five times last night. 😍 like, oh shit, maybe I am gonna lose my shit after all?! 🤔
 

 

I was gonna keep this to myself, but your post is kind of a perfect segue. I legit sent this to @Porthos last night:

 

So my issues with the Spiderman data, are unfortunately not really scientific. And therefore really aren’t worth posting it because they’re just gonna get dismissed as not Analytical, but more empirical. But privately I have a lot of thoughts.

 

First and foremost, I have no doubt this baby is going to be huge. It probably will make 200 million. I personally felt like 160-180 was always the goal, but I could see it doing something with the 2xx before it. That said:

 

I’m having a weird Detective Pokémon flashbacks. I feel like we are insulated in the perfect environment where the user base here is heavily in favor of NWH, and heavily in favor of watching it in a movie theater. You see that by their immediate correlation that breaking the all-time record and trailer views in the first 24 hours is going to automatically translate into some Endgame level financial success.

 

Obviously, I am very skeptical. Insert blah blah blah staffing shortage, blah blah blah Covid variant, blah blah blah lack of repeating shows, blah blah blah all the talking points you and I have discussed ad nauseam.
 

But what Bestie and I have been coming back to of late is: 

 

I don’t think the female fandom is going to show up. I don’t think we’re gonna get the big number the boys want.

 

If I have learned anything in the past four years that I’ve been here, it’s that the habits of a fanboy and a fangirl in terms of how they consume their media is incredibly different.

 

I think it boils down to the concept of spoilers. I have found that men are far more spoiler concerned. Most of the discussions are based on speculations. This is my new theory on how it’s all connected. I need to see it immediately or else I will be spoilers. That is why we’re are seeing increase in the male demos on opening weekends. They are frontloading the whole thing. 

Contrast this with fangirls that who literally have something called a “mistake” spoiler, Which is I want to know the entire plot of the movie, to make sure that it syncs up with exactly my worldview, otherwise I don’t want to go see it. (This legit happened with Eternals. It got so fucked with the tumblr crowd early on cause of the out of context Hiroshima spoiler that got out). 
 

Fangirls consume a significant amount of a fan art, fanfiction, and gifs sets. This is going to sound crazy, but I cannot tell you the amount of times I have run into people who have not seen something like Endgame, because it’s too upsetting that Tony Stark dies, yet they write Tony Stark fan fiction and they’re really active on Twitter. Still to this day!

 

All of those girls might be watching the trailer multiple times to see their fave fetus twink, But that doesn’t translate into tickets sold. No different than everyone watch Detective Pokémon trailer because the cute Pokes, but they didn’t go see the movie. 
 

The other thing is girl fandom has other MCU properties to distract them while they wait for either the crowds to die down, or they just wait to watch it on Disney+.  Eternals is dropping very soon. Hawkeye just will be just finishing up. They have fight 120674970210 over Wanda to entertain them. They haven’t really been coming out all year, and I don’t see any reason they’re going to start now.

 

And Porthos pointed out that a lot of the younger female fans are SUPER into the Zendaya and Tom ship. That translate them into obsessively following the press tour only to not show up opening weekend. 

While you make good points, there is a big difference compare to pikachu and that is the presales so far.Presale for pika were nowhere near the expectations if my memory serves, while spidey is complete the oppossite.With that said i have no idea about spideys legs.

[Menor the Destroyer]

16 minutes ago, Cap said:

I was gonna keep this to myself, but your post is kind of a perfect segue. I legit sent this to @Porthos last night:

 

So my issues with the Spiderman data, are unfortunately not really scientific. And therefore really aren’t worth posting it because they’re just gonna get dismissed as not Analytical, but more empirical. But privately I have a lot of thoughts.

 

First and foremost, I have no doubt this baby is going to be huge. It probably will make 200 million. I personally felt like 160-180 was always the goal, but I could see it doing something with the 2xx before it. That said:

 

I’m having a weird Detective Pokémon flashbacks. I feel like we are insulated in the perfect environment where the user base here is heavily in favor of NWH, and heavily in favor of watching it in a movie theater. You see that by their immediate correlation that breaking the all-time record and trailer views in the first 24 hours is going to automatically translate into some Endgame level financial success.

 

Obviously, I am very skeptical. Insert blah blah blah staffing shortage, blah blah blah Covid variant, blah blah blah lack of repeating shows, blah blah blah all the talking points you and I have discussed ad nauseam.
 

But what Bestie and I have been coming back to of late is: 

 

I don’t think the female fandom is going to show up. I don’t think we’re gonna get the big number the boys want.

 

If I have learned anything in the past four years that I’ve been here, it’s that the habits of a fanboy and a fangirl in terms of how they consume their media is incredibly different.

 

I think it boils down to the concept of spoilers. I have found that men are far more spoiler concerned. Most of the discussions are based on speculations. This is my new theory on how it’s all connected. I need to see it immediately or else I will be spoilers. That is why we’re are seeing increase in the male demos on opening weekends. They are frontloading the whole thing. 

Contrast this with fangirls that who literally have something called a “mistake” spoiler, Which is I want to know the entire plot of the movie, to make sure that it syncs up with exactly my worldview, otherwise I don’t want to go see it. (This legit happened with Eternals. It got so fucked with the tumblr crowd early on cause of the out of context Hiroshima spoiler that got out). 
 

Fangirls consume a significant amount of a fan art, fanfiction, and gifs sets. This is going to sound crazy, but I cannot tell you the amount of times I have run into people who have not seen something like Endgame, because it’s too upsetting that Tony Stark dies, yet they write Tony Stark fan fiction and they’re really active on Twitter. Still to this day!

 

All of those girls might be watching the trailer multiple times to see their fave fetus twink, But that doesn’t translate into tickets sold. No different than everyone watch Detective Pokémon trailer because the cute Pokes, but they didn’t go see the movie. 
 

The other thing is girl fandom has other MCU properties to distract them while they wait for either the crowds to die down, or they just wait to watch it on Disney+.  Eternals is dropping very soon. Hawkeye just will be just finishing up. They have fight 120674970210 over Wanda to entertain them. They haven’t really been coming out all year, and I don’t see any reason they’re going to start now.

 

And Porthos pointed out that a lot of the younger female fans are SUPER into the Zendaya and Tom ship. That translate them into obsessively following the press tour only to not show up opening weekend. 

I don't think Pikachu makes sense as a comparison here. It had high trailer views but PS was never that high. Here the sales start backed up the trailer views in showing the hype. People are voting with their wallets. 

 

In terms of increasing male demos on opening weekends, I think that is mostly Covid related as polling shows men tend to be less cautious about it than women. It's not like MCU movies were ever super female-heavy on OW anyway. Usually it would be a male-heavy OW and then after the full run the demos evened out. That does show the differing behavior around spoilers that you mentioned, but I think there hasn't been any change here relative to previous MCU films. 

 

I do agree though that it won't beat Endgame. I posted a while back when NWH broke the trailer view record that Raimi-related nostalgia is at an all-time high among fans and so the Internet and fanbase hype will overindex relative to irl. Here the preview sales are gigantic and not far off Endgame, while Friday sales are still huge but not at the level of Endgame, showing I think that the GA hype, while still really big, doesn't quite match the super rabid anticipation from the Raimi/Spidey fanbase. Christmas and WOM from that sweet T&A will cushion the legs (unless Omicron chops them off) but it will still be frontloaded for a Christmas release I think. 

Edited December 5, 2021 by Menor

[Deep Wang]

25 minutes ago, Cap said:

I’m having a weird Detective Pokémon flashbacks. I feel like we are insulated in the perfect environment where the user base here is heavily in favor of NWH, and heavily in favor of watching it in a movie theater. You see that by their immediate correlation that breaking the all-time record and trailer views in the first 24 hours is going to automatically translate into some Endgame level financial success.

 

Obviously, I am very skeptical. Insert blah blah blah staffing shortage, blah blah blah Covid variant, blah blah blah lack of repeating shows, blah blah blah all the talking points you and I have discussed ad nauseam.
 

But what Bestie and I have been coming back to of late is: 

 

I don’t think the female fandom is going to show up. I don’t think we’re gonna get the big number the boys want.

 

This is a very good post!  

 

I am having a hard time seeing pre-pandemic presales being perfectly translated into pandemic theater-going.  Yes, the numbers are huge in a way that are reserved for the big boys, but habits have changed for a lot of people.

 

It really all boils down to whether or not this will be the movie where the missing demos finally go to the theaters.    

 

I think if the Disney Thanksgiving animated film was something aside from an original film we could have had a better idea about family engagement on something more highly anticipated.  But oh well. lol

Edited December 5, 2021 by Deep Wang

[Ms Lady Hawk]

Didn’t Endgame make almost 100 million on its first true Friday? How can anyone expect this movie to come anywhere near that? That is setting yourself up for disappointment. So far, the experts on this board like Porthos, keyser, Charlie, etc… have provided realistic data. If anyone wants to dream up bigger numbers, then that’s on them and not the movie. As it stands now, I am surprised/shocked that we could see an o/u 250 million opening week for a movie during the pandemic. That’s incredible.

[excel1]

RISE OF SKYWALKER is a good starting point for this expectation wise. 

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

Didn’t Endgame make almost 100 million on its first true Friday? How can anyone expect this movie to come anywhere near that?

 

Who's expecting that? The biggest true Friday number I've seen floated around is like $77M but most are in the $60-70M range. 

[cax16]

I personally think this is the first movie that people feel is a must see so I think it’s gonna make a lot.
 

With that said, and I’ve said this before, if my habits for movie viewing have changed I’m sure many others have as well. I haven’t even seen eternals yet and probably won’t till it hits Disney+, I’m just not feeling going to theatres atm cause I don’t love sitting for hours in a mask (unless I have to at work) and I won’t take off my mask in a theatre. 

 

I’ll see this probably a month after release on a day where the theatre won’t be busy only cause I feel like it’s a pretty big event movie, in normal times I would of been there on preview night. 

Edited December 5, 2021 by cax16

[Ms Lady Hawk]

8 minutes ago, Multiverse of XXR said:

 

Who's expecting that? The biggest true Friday number I've seen floated around is like $77M but most are in the $60-70M range. 

The people who thought the trailer views and presales translated to ow bigger than or equal to Endgame. 

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

The people who thought the trailer views and presales translated to ow bigger than or equal to Endgame. 

The number of which were 2 or 3 (that were serious at best ) you mean ?