Spider-Man: No Way Home | December 17, 2021 | The More Fun Stuff Version (yes, that's what it's called) comes to theaters September 2nd!

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

The people who thought the trailer views and presales translated to ow bigger than or equal to Endgame. 

 

Is there anyone on this forum that seriously (ie not memeing for laughs) thought that tho?

[john2000]

Just now, Porthos said:

 

Is there anyone on this forum that seriously (ie not memeing for laughs) thought that tho?

Spoiler

 

[SpiderByte]

Based on reports of international presales this might be one of those "billion before the weekend ends" scenarios

[SpiderByte]

16 minutes ago, Multiverse of XXR said:

 

Who's expecting that? The biggest true Friday number I've seen floated around is like $77M but most are in the $60-70M range. 

Ive said 100 OD but that includes previews.

[Knights of Ren]

19 minutes ago, excel1 said:

RISE OF SKYWALKER is a good starting point for this expectation wise. 

Negative 

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, Menor said:

Btw sales are a lot more frontloaded than Endgame per my data. Like the Fri/Th ratio in tickets was 1.3 for EG the Sat before release, for NWH maybe ~0.8. 

0.8 now or expecting 0.8 sat before release (7 days from now)

[Menor the Destroyer]

Just now, Product Driven Legion said:

0.8 now or expecting 0.8 sat before release (7 days from now)

Expecting 0.8, currently 0.76.

[Legion Again]

14 minutes ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

The people who thought the trailer views and presales translated to ow bigger than or equal to Endgame. 

Literally nobody ever thought this...

[Legion Again]

5 minutes ago, Menor said:

Expecting 0.8, currently 0.76.

I think we can grow a little more than that, but I would also say that the extra showtime will be skewing th/Fri early PS more than Th/Fr final PS and that will be more skewed than Th/Fri gross.

Edited December 5, 2021 by Product Driven Legion

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

Literally nobody ever thought this...

In the forum indeed , on twitter thats another matter lol . I saw people on twitter that litteraly said that spidey will open to over 200 million ow but somehow its gonna miss 400 million dom .....lol

Edited December 5, 2021 by john2000

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, john2000 said:

In the forum indeed , on twitter thats another matter lol . I saw people on twitter that litteraly said that spidey will open to over 200 million ow but somehow its gonna miss 400 million dom .....lol

Twitter doesn't count, they can't add 2+2 

[Cap]

34 minutes ago, john2000 said:

While you make good points, there is a big difference compare to pikachu and that is the presales so far.

I reference Pika Pika specifically as “something that has good trailer viewers, had massive massive hype, and then none it translated into box office sales.”  As I said; I don’t deny the pre-sales have been massive. That’s not what I am saying at all. What I basically implied is I don’t know how much more growth we’ll see. It’s very possible that it’s burned though 50-60% of its demand already. 

 

29 minutes ago, Menor said:

It's not like MCU movies were ever super female-heavy on OW anyway. Usually it would be a male-heavy OW and then after the full run the demos evened out.

 

Yes. Which is part of the point I was making: you will need that demo to come out on OW for a truly massive (215+) , and I don’t think they will. 

 

29 minutes ago, Menor said:

but it will still be frontloaded for a Christmas release I think. 

Same. I would not be shocked at like 50 Th 50 Fr 40 Sa 30 Sun tbh. 

 

19 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

the numbers are huge in a way that are reserved for the big boys, but habits have changed for a lot of people.

Off the Internet, Non-fandom people know that I am fandom person; so people always talk to me about movies and comics. The folks talking to me about Spiderman know the movie is coming out, havent talked to me about T&A at all, and all said that they are going to “wait to see it after it’s less crowded” cause of their COVID concerns. My aunt won’t go to the movies on the weekends anymore. 🤷‍♀️
 

And it’s second weekend has Christmas Eve on Friday/Christmas Saturday will is brutal. 
 

The good thing is that it should have January almost all to itself. So those people who don’t care about spoilers, and want to avoid the crowds, definitely have time to go see it. 

[john2000]

1 minute ago, Product Driven Legion said:

Twitter doesn't count, they can't add 2+2 

Its frustarating  when the so called box office experts on twitter open their holes....

[Porthos]

Anyway, while I don't think this is a Detective Pokemon or Solo situation (pre-sales are far too strong for that), @Cap brings up a great point about demos and how women/families have been the most resistant to going back out to the movies.  Be curious to see how that affects the justifiably famous Marvel Saturday Bump. 

 

Not gonna matter for Thr previews as there are simply faaaaaaar too many excited fans.  The one thing I keep coming back to tho, is the sheer amount of showtimes that Thursday is burning off.  Even without the same level of hype., if Endgame's main window was 3pm to 11pm instead of 6pm to 2am, there would have been far more showtimes/better seats available for purchase.  One of the reasons FSS was so fucking crazy for EG was that there (almost) literally wasn't capacity for it on Thursday.  Or Friday.  And arguably Saturday.  Was the picture perfect definition of "spillover".

 

Here though, thanks in part I feel to the start time and also in part to theaters reaching for this movie like a parched desert traveller reaches for a glass of water, showtimes are abundant.  Seats available are abundant.  I think theaters were indeed caught off guard by initial demand, but have thrown caution to the wind and now have tons of showtimes.

 

Right now in Sacto, I can have one 7pm showing that is 67% sold and another at 7:30pm that is just 15% sold (with the later going up a couple of days later after the initial surge).  I mention this because I fully expect those added later showings to fill and and fill up big.  BUT the very fact that right now NWH is at about 45% capacity in my region while EG was at 75% (more or less) tells me that 1] the pent up demand isn't close to EG's level and 2] there's a very good chance that whatever spillover occurs on Thur (people not liking the theaters available, showtimes, busy until the weekend, whatever), won't be nearly as insane.

 

I won't go as far as to say this will really hurt the IM as this is a hyped hyped hyped film, and that is gonna matter to the GA (plus each and every time I personally doubt a MCU flick, it bites me in the ass in more ways than one).  But I will say that I ain't gonna be surprised one whit if the IM is lower than some folks here expect, unless it has out-of-this-world reception.  Simply because of the sheer amount of demand that is getting burnt off on Thursday.  It's quite likely that, locally at least, this will have more showtimes and seats available than Endgame had.  It stands to reason that will affect the IM at least somewhat.

 

And to tie this back to Cap's thoughts, if women and families are a bit more hesitant to show than other demos, that might be one of the underlying reasons for a slightly less-than-expected IM.  If it happens.

[john2000]

3 minutes ago, Cap said:

I reference Pika Pika specifically as “something that has good trailer viewers, had massive massive hype, and then none it translated into box office sales.”  As I said; I don’t deny the pre-sales have been massive. That’s not what I am saying at all. What I basically implied is I don’t know how much more growth we’ll see. It’s very possible that it’s burned though 50-60% of its demand already. 

 

 

Yes. Which is part of the point I was making: you will need that demo to come out on OW for a truly massive (215+) , and I don’t think they will. 

 

Same. I would not be shocked at like 50 Th 50 Fr 40 Sa 30 Sun tbh. 

 

Off the Internet, Non-fandom people know that I am fandom person; so people always talk to me about movies and comics. The folks talking to me about Spiderman know the movie is coming out, havent talked to me about T&A at all, and all said that they are going to “wait to see it after it’s less crowded” cause of their COVID concerns. My aunt won’t go to the movies on the weekends anymore. 🤷‍♀️
 

And it’s second weekend has Christmas Eve on Friday/Christmas Saturday will is brutal. 
 

The good thing is that it should have January almost all to itself. So those people who don’t care about spoilers, and want to avoid the crowds, definitely have time to go see it. 

a 3,75 multi off previews ? dude come on...

[XXR vs XXR]

5 minutes ago, Cap said:

Same. I would not be shocked at like 50 Th 50 Fr 40 Sa 30 Sun tbh. 

 

That would be shocking unless it's has horrible WOM. Like, toxic bad F Cinemascore shit. 

If previews hit $50M, this wouldn't miss $225M. 

 

Edited December 5, 2021 by Multiverse of XXR

[john2000]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Anyway, while I don't think this is a Detective Pokemon or Solo situation (pre-sales are far too strong for that), @Cap brings up a great point about demos and how women/families have been the most resistant to going back out to the movies.  Be curious to see how that affects the justifiably famous Marvel Saturday Bump. 

 

Not gonna matter for Thr previews as there are simply faaaaaaar too many excited fans.  The one thing I keep coming back to tho, is the sheer amount of showtimes that Thursday is burning off.  Even without the same level of hype., if Endgame's main window was 3pm to 11pm instead of 6pm to 2am, there would have been far more showtimes/better seats available for purchase.  One of the reasons FSS was so fucking crazy for EG was that there (almost) literally wasn't capacity for it on Thursday.  Or Friday.  And arguably Saturday.  Was the picture perfect definition of "spillover".

 

Here though, thanks in part I feel to the start time and also in part to theaters reaching for this movie like a parched desert traveller reaches for a glass of water, showtimes are abundant.  Seats available are abundant.  I think theaters were indeed caught off guard by initial demand, but have thrown caution to the wind and now have tons of showtimes.

 

Right now in Sacto, I can have one 7pm showing that is 67% sold and another at 7:30pm that is just 15% sold (with the later going up a couple of days later after the initial surge).  I mention this because I fully expect those added later showings to fill and and fill up big.  BUT the very fact that right now NWH is at about 45% capacity in my region while EG was at 75% (more or less) tells me that 1] the pent up demand isn't close to EG's level and 2] there's a very good chance that whatever spillover occurs on Thur (people not liking the theaters available, showtimes, busy until the weekend, whatever), won't be nearly as insane.

 

I won't go as far as to say this will really hurt the IM as this is a hyped hyped hyped film, and that is gonna matter to the GA (plus each and every time I personally doubt a MCU flick, it bites me in the ass in more ways than one).  But I will say that I ain't gonna be surprised one whit if the IM is lower than some folks here expect, unless it has out-of-this-world reception.  Simply because of the sheer amount of demand that is getting burnt off on Thursday.  It's quite likely that, locally at least, this will have more showtimes and seats available than Endgame had.  It stands to reason that will affect the IM at least somewhat.

 

And to tie this back to Cap's thoughts, if women and families are a bit more hesitant to show than other demos, that might be one of the underlying reasons for a slightly less-than-expected IM.  If it happens.

I am expecting a 5-5,5 multi from previews personally, which would be in the last jedi ballpark i think.

[Legion Again]

5 minutes ago, Cap said:

I would not be shocked at like 50 Th 50 Fr 40 Sa 30 Sun tbh. 

Can’t even find the proper gif to express how deranged this is

[john2000]

Just now, Product Driven Legion said:

Can’t even find the proper gif to express how deranged this is

[Legion Again]

Endgame FSS was 4.95 Th. Right now I’ve got NWH at 3.8ish, or about 23% down. Even TROS did 3.44x — I really don’t see how you could go below that combo of crazed Th fanbase+weak reception.