JOKER WEEKEND THREAD | 96M DOM, 151 OS, 247M WW (October Record all around) | ***NO SPOILERS*** | SALE LIVE: Monthly Premium Account 50% off, Monthly Gold Account $5 Off

[a2k]

26 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

It's actually not a protected class.  Marital status can be (but isn't always), and this poster doesn't require you to be married to go...just to bring someone (sibling, friend, random person off the street) with you.

 

A dick move, but not an illegal one...

can one go as two face?

[Legion Again]

Woke up, caught up.  

 

13.3 about what I was expecting, tad better.    

 

True IM should be 2.9-3.2ish, I'd take lower side. With only 2 reliable sources for true Friday atm Menor with 20-22 and Jat 24+, I'm thinking 22-26 for now. Gives true FSS of 63.8-83.2, full weekend 77.1-96.5

 

If I needed a single estimate on the spot I'd take 24×3, 85M weekend.

[sfran43]

 

[charlie Jatinder]

Gonna bump to 26.5-27mn True Friday. In my head I am playing a bit safe but $40mn opening day seems certain.

Edited October 4, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[lorddemaxus]

3 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Woke up, caught up.  

 

13.3 about what I was expecting, tad better.    

 

True IM should be 2.9-3.2ish, I'd take lower side. With only 2 reliable sources for true Friday atm Menor with 20-22 and Jat 24+, I'm thinking 22-26 for now. Gives true FSS of 63.8-83.2, full weekend 77.1-96.5

 

If I needed a single estimate on the spot I'd take 24×3, 85M weekend.

This movie seems a bit more walk-ups heavy than expected (especially considering that Menor was off by 2 mil for Thursday previews and Deadline had 10-12 mil estimates). I think it will be higher than 24.

 

edit: Yeah, and just got confirmed.

Edited October 4, 2019 by lorddemaxus

[TMP]

Next up: Raging Bull but with Bane

[reddevil19]

4 minutes ago, TMP said:

Next up: Raging Bull but with Bane

Doesn't Tom Hardy have an MMA movie or something in his past? That can we retconned into a prequel. 

[Legion Again]

15 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Gonna bump to 26.5-27mn True Friday. In my head I am playing a bit safe but $40mn opening day seems certain.

Haha. Just took a couple minutes for my post to be invalidated. With these numbers over It2 is likely and 100M more realistic. 

Edited October 4, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[VENOM]

6 minutes ago, TMP said:

Next up: Raging Bull but with Bane

What I said was happening was so ridiculous I’m not surprised you’re immediate reaction was that, until you read it fully. The world is going crazy. But like I said nothing is stopping this hype train.

[VENOM]

@kitik are you reacting to what I said or what you think about the cinemas doing it?

[Menor the Destroyer]

25 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Woke up, caught up.  

 

13.3 about what I was expecting, tad better.    

 

True IM should be 2.9-3.2ish, I'd take lower side. With only 2 reliable sources for true Friday atm Menor with 20-22 and Jat 24+, I'm thinking 22-26 for now. Gives true FSS of 63.8-83.2, full weekend 77.1-96.5

 

If I needed a single estimate on the spot I'd take 24×3, 85M weekend.

Please don't take my Friday numbers like Charlie's, they're more of an educated guess/projection based on the presales. There's a reason I posted those only in the tracking thread and not in the weekend thread. Once I have a bigger comp base it will be more reliable.

[kitik]

5 minutes ago, VENOM said:

@kitik are you reacting to what I said or what you think about the cinemas doing it?

 I'm not impressed with your apparent disregard to warnings about public safety. Especially when they mention a specific credible threat.

[JB33]

Really like that preview number! Now I'm hoping the walk-ups are as strong as some people are suggesting. 

[VENOM]

Just now, kitik said:

 I'm not impressed with your apparent disregard to warnings about public safety. Especially when they mention a specific credible threat.

I’m not impressed with your sense of humour but I guess you can’t please everyone.  How can it be a credible threat if they are still investigating it?

[Porthos]

*wakes up*

*gets to computer*

 

LolDeadline. 

LOLDEADLINE AGAIN!!!

 

LolSacramento (we really underperformed)

 

HURRAH for @captainwondyful's tracking average coming far closer than  Deadline ever did.

 

I think that just about covers it all. 👍

[filmlover]

The whole drama over safety concerns surrounding this movie has been more about business owners making sure they aren't liable for anything in the infinitesimal chance that something were to happen than anything else. July 2012 wasn't that long ago.

[keysersoze123]

I feel good about 30m True friday. This will have huge walk ins. There are no shortage of shows and plexes will add more if evening ones fill out. Market is empty enough for it to dominate completely. Plus late night friday will be stronger than thursday as we are into the weekend. I see shows as late as 230AM in some markets.

 

I have fixed my script to run OD AMC number. It will take almost 3 hours to run. For day 2 I am splitting Dolby, Imax, Prime and 2D shows into separate run. That will also give visibility into how much the PLF dominates overall BO.

[Legion Again]

27 minutes ago, Menor said:

Please don't take my Friday numbers like Charlie's, they're more of an educated guess/projection based on the presales. There's a reason I posted those only in the tracking thread and not in the weekend thread. Once I have a bigger comp base it will be more reliable.

This is equally true for Charlie's first morning number. Obviously I wouldn't compare a presale based projection with one from several hours later that has actual run rate incorporated.

 

Anyway I didn't weight the estimates equally, since of course Cinemark is less % of the market than the ComScore reported locs. 

[grim22]

@VENOM has been threadbanned 

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

This is equally true for Charlie's first morning number. Obviously I wouldn't compare a presale based projection with one from several hours later that has actual run rate incorporated.

 

Anyway I didn't weight the estimates equally, since of course Cinemark is less % of the market than the ComScore reported locs. 

Difference being that Charlie has a much bigger comp base than I do.