JOKER WEEKEND THREAD | 96M DOM, 151 OS, 247M WW (October Record all around) | ***NO SPOILERS*** | SALE LIVE: Monthly Premium Account 50% off, Monthly Gold Account $5 Off

[cdsacken]

Nothing wrong at all with the 300m club. Hell I still think 225-250 is very possible so it's far from crazy. It was a ballsy aggressive club that would have been legendary if it hit. Just like the 300m IT 2 domestic club. (which I was in on and failed lol)

 

200 would be really solid with this small budget, 250 great and 300 amazing. I definitely think it was a genuine shoot for the moon club.

 

It's just like the Lion King over Titanic club. That required an absolutely perfect film and instead we got an average at best one. That still ended up at 1.641B. Imagine if it was actually good, that club could have actually succeeded! 

[Porthos]

Top 20 OW R-rated films, all time (adj)

Quote

1	Deadpool	Fox	$139,071,800	36.5%	3,558	$39,087	$381,059,700	2/12/16
2	The Matrix Reloaded	WB	$137,128,900	32.6%	3,603	$38,059	$420,730,300	5/15/03
3	It	WB (NL)	$124,508,900	37.9%	4,103	$30,345	$328,942,500	9/8/17
4	The Passion of the Christ	NM	$121,654,000	22.6%	3,043	$39,978	$537,226,100	2/25/04
5	Deadpool 2	Fox	$120,556,400	39.3%	4,349	$27,721	$306,621,800	5/18/18
6	American Sniper	WB	$99,053,500	25.5%	3,555	$27,863	$388,150,800	1/16/15
7	The Hangover Part II	WB	$96,076,400	33.8%	3,615	$26,577	$284,602,500	5/26/11
8	Fifty Shades of Grey	Uni.	$94,506,700	51.3%	3,646	$25,920	$184,269,100	2/13/15
9	Joker (2019)	WB	$93,500,000	100.0%	4,374	$21,376	$93,500,000	10/4/19
10	300	WB	$92,830,900	33.7%	3,103	$29,916	$275,819,900	3/9/07
11	Hannibal	MGM	$92,333,600	35.1%	3,230	$28,585	$262,805,900	2/9/01
12	It: Chapter Two	WB (NL)	$91,062,200	45.0%	4,570	$19,926	$202,205,200	9/6/19
13	Logan (2017)	Fox	$90,112,100	39.1%	4,071	$22,135	$230,370,400	3/3/17
14	8 Mile	Uni.	$79,462,500	43.9%	2,470	$32,171	$180,919,100	11/8/02
15	Interview with the Vampire	WB	$78,438,100	34.6%	2,604	$30,123	$226,399,900	11/11/94
16	Halloween (2018)	Uni.	$76,052,700	47.8%	3,928	$19,362	$158,989,100	10/19/18
17	Air Force One	Sony	$72,889,700	21.5%	2,919	$24,969	$339,430,800	7/25/97
18	The Matrix Revolutions	WB	$72,431,400	34.8%	3,502	$20,683	$208,089,700	11/5/03
19	Lethal Weapon 3	WB	$72,173,500	23.0%	2,510	$28,754	$314,224,400	5/15/92
20	American Pie 2	Uni.	$71,822,100	31.1%	3,063	$23,447	$230,986,500	8/10/01

I'm going to apply an initial filter to movies that I think clearly don't work as comps:

Quote

3	It	WB (NL)	$124,508,900	37.9%	4,103	$30,345	$328,942,500	9/8/17
4	The Passion of the Christ	NM	$121,654,000	22.6%	3,043	$39,978	$537,226,100	2/25/04
6	American Sniper	WB	$99,053,500	25.5%	3,555	$27,863	$388,150,800	1/16/15
8	Fifty Shades of Grey	Uni.	$94,506,700	51.3%	3,646	$25,920	$184,269,100	2/13/15
9	Joker (2019)	WB	$93,500,000	100.0%	4,374	$21,376	$93,500,000	10/4/19
11	Hannibal	MGM	$92,333,600	35.1%	3,230	$28,585	$262,805,900	2/9/01
12	It: Chapter Two	WB (NL)	$91,062,200	45.0%	4,570	$19,926	$202,205,200	9/6/19
13	Logan (2017)	Fox	$90,112,100	39.1%	4,071	$22,135	$230,370,400	3/3/17
14	8 Mile	Uni.	$79,462,500	43.9%	2,470	$32,171	$180,919,100	11/8/02
15	Interview with the Vampire	WB	$78,438,100	34.6%	2,604	$30,123	$226,399,900	11/11/94
16	Halloween (2018)	Uni.	$76,052,700	47.8%	3,928	$19,362	$158,989,100	10/19/18

Everything that was a comedy or action spectacle was removed.

 

To me, the clearest direct comp is Hannibal and Logan.  Ignoring any discussion over Logan currently because of Franchise War considerations, it is interesting how on the nose the Hannibal comp is.  That too was a deeply unsettling flick, with the clear main difference being critical reception (and so far audience reception).

 

It (or It 2 for that matter) doesn't really work as a comp as that wasn't a film that went out of its way to be unsettling on a character level.  American Sniper could work on the controversy angle, I suppose.  But I ain't really touching that.  Passion of the Christ was pretty similar to Joker in that it also attracted a lot of controversy and had a pretty sizable "well made" v "I still don't like it" split among critics (IIRC and I might not).  But that had a huge turnout from Evangelical Christians, so it really can't compare quite there.

 

And we all know about the craze around Fifty Shades. 

 

Looking at this list, and being right around American Sniper, Hannibal, and yes, Logan,  mid-90s is a great result for Joker.  It is one of the most successful R rated films of its kind on OW. And in the running for the most successful depending on what filters one wants to apply.

 

Doesn't mean it'll have great legs.  Also doesn't mean it'll have terrible legs.  Too soon to say.  

 

But Joker is a massive success for the type of film it is.  Hard for me to see otherwise.

Edited October 6, 2019 by Porthos

[cdsacken]

Curious to see the legs. Next week seems pretty good but the 2 weeks after has some competition.

[Porthos]

One final thing.  Not to be "that guy", but last year the Venom OW thread "only" hit 50 pages.  This weekend thread looks to be clearing it or matching it.

 

We're coming off the slow months, and while there have been some nice sized hits, people are still making their way back to the forum after a pretty slow back end of summer.

 

Personally, and to paraphrase Mark Twain, I find the find the reports of BOT "dying" to be premature.

[cannastop]

34 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

It's just like the Lion King over Titanic club. That required an absolutely perfect film and instead we got an average at best one. That still ended up at 1.641B. Imagine if it was actually good, that club could have actually succeeded! 

According to the experts, The Lion King 2019 should have made twice that much.

 

If only kids liked it...

[OncomingStorm93]

This OW is absolutely fantastic and anyone who thinks otherwise just wants to watch the world burn.

[TwoMisfits]

15 minutes ago, Porthos said:

One final thing.  Not to be "that guy", but last year the Venom OW thread "only" hit 50 pages.  This weekend thread looks to be clearing it or matching it.

 

We're coming off the slow months, and while there have been some nice sized hits, people are still making their way back to the forum after a pretty slow back end of summer.

 

Personally, and to paraphrase Mark Twain, I find the find the reports of BOT "dying" to be premature.

Honestly, I thank the theater industry for the lulls:)...End of summer vacay onto back to the learning year is a rough time to follow box office...as is the post-holiday January spot to get everyone back learning...so, I know I have ebbs and flows to how often I am on here (but I always enjoy the stop ins when I make it:)...

 

Heck, my theater going ebbs and flows...I haven't seen a theater movie since Angry Birds 2...and of course, my spouse knows we have Addams Family on tap next weekend and he pipes up this Friday (when he knows we are busy all this weekend) "We should go see Joker"...so I told him I'll look for tickets in its 3rd weekend, b/c I don't have time to fit 2 movies in one weekend right now, so he's gonna have to wait:)...

 

Lesson learned for him - next time he wants to see a movie OW, he better not have already scheduled a game night with friends for Saturday night (and a teen game night for his kids Friday night), b/c I'm not canceling on my fun adult-friend-bonding time...

Edited October 6, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[a2k]

Logan had a 2.56x multi (226.3/88.4). That gives Joker ~240 dom. Gut says that's the optimistic number.

Joker is 91% on RT after 14.5k verified ratings while Logan has 90% after 92k ratings (before verification feature).

 

If IT2 as a sequel is looking at ~2.35x multi and SS did ~2.42x (with T-mobile sales front-loading it and bad/mixed wom) I feel Joker has a very good shot at 2.45-2.50x even if it does not match Logan's legs.

 

IT1 did 2.65x btw.

Edited October 6, 2019 by a2k

[Alex SciChannel]

1 hour ago, john2000 said:

lets repeat, it really does it matter if the ow is 94 or 95 ?

um...yes, because when it comes to the box office the goal is to be as accurate as possible. Is it not?

[john2000]

1 minute ago, Alex SciChannel said:

um...yes, because when it comes to the box office the goal is to be as accurate as possible. Is it not?

you have a point here

[Essem]

I cant help but wonder if this Joker was the first Joker on screen after TDK how much it would have made. Did Suicide Squad's Joker help or work against this. I feel without SS this would have made even more bonkers money on OW.

[a2k]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

Top 20 OW R-rated films, all time (adj)

I'm going to apply an initial filter to movies that I think clearly don't work as comps:

Everything that was a comedy or action spectacle was removed.

 

To me, the clearest direct comp is Hannibal and Logan.  Ignoring any discussion over Logan currently because of Franchise War considerations, it is interesting how on the nose the Hannibal comp is.  That too was a deeply unsettling flick, with the clear main difference being critical reception (and so far audience reception).

 

It (or It 2 for that matter) doesn't really work as a comp as that wasn't a film that went out of its way to be unsettling on a character level.  American Sniper could work on the controversy angle, I suppose.  But I ain't really touching that.  Passion of the Christ was pretty similar to Joker in that it also attracted a lot of controversy and had a pretty sizable "well made" v "I still don't like it" split among critics (IIRC and I might not).  But that had a huge turnout from Evangelical Christians, so it really can't compare quite there.

 

And we all know about the craze around Fifty Shades. 

 

Looking at this list, and being right around American Sniper, Hannibal, and yes, Logan,  mid-90s is a great result for Joker.  It is one of the most successful R rated films of its kind on OW. And in the running for the most successful depending on what filters one wants to apply.

 

Doesn't mean it'll have great legs.  Also doesn't mean it'll have terrible legs.  Too soon to say.  

 

But Joker is a massive success for the type of film it is.  Hard for me to see otherwise.

230 dom + 345 os (no china) = 575 ww

will give it 230*0.55 + 345*0.40 = 265 theatrical returns on 60 odd prod budget.

[Alex SciChannel]

2 minutes ago, john2000 said:

you have a point here

respect earned

Edited October 6, 2019 by Alex SciChannel

[a2k]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

One final thing.  Not to be "that guy", but last year the Venom OW thread "only" hit 50 pages.  This weekend thread looks to be clearing it or matching it.

 

We're coming off the slow months, and while there have been some nice sized hits, people are still making their way back to the forum after a pretty slow back end of summer.

 

Personally, and to paraphrase Mark Twain, I find the find the reports of BOT "dying" to be premature.

[SchumacherFTW]

10 minutes ago, Essem said:

I cant help but wonder if this Joker was the first Joker on screen after TDK how much it would have made. Did Suicide Squad's Joker help or work against this. I feel without SS this would have made even more bonkers money on OW.

Having a pallet cleanser of Leto between Ledger and Phoenix probably helped. 

[narniadis]

11 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

um...yes, because when it comes to the box office the goal is to be as accurate as possible. Is it not?

Accurate only has so much space when talking about an estimate which is made before the film makes the money. 

Deadline makes a comment about 95m without anything to back it up, it may happen, it may not but again, its deadline being unreliable and agenda pushing Deadline - WB refrained from bumping it up since its statistically unlikely. The Sunday hold they gave is already good for the time of year and type of film. Their posted 93.5m is as accurate as the given data can allow. 

 

That being said, its a good hope to go higher but doesnt make a difference since we arent discussing the film crossing 100m. 

[IronJimbo]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

One final thing.  Not to be "that guy", but last year the Venom OW thread "only" hit 50 pages.  This weekend thread looks to be clearing it or matching it.

 

We're coming off the slow months, and while there have been some nice sized hits, people are still making their way back to the forum after a pretty slow back end of summer.

 

Personally, and to paraphrase Mark Twain, I find the find the reports of BOT "dying" to be premature.

Box Office Theory pages gives a strong positive correlation with Box Office Gross.

Just a quick reminder Avatar 2 is going to make 4 billies minimum

[Cap]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

One final thing.  Not to be "that guy", but last year the Venom OW thread "only" hit 50 pages.  This weekend thread looks to be clearing it or matching it.

 

We're coming off the slow months, and while there have been some nice sized hits, people are still making their way back to the forum after a pretty slow back end of summer.

 

Personally, and to paraphrase Mark Twain, I find the find the reports of BOT "dying" to be premature.

Also don’t forgot that often on CBMs weekend or anything people think “will be a cluster” some times folks just avoid the thread. The Joker thread, the Franchise War Thread, and the Joker Review Thread have all been super active this weekend. 

 

ETA:

 

 

12 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Box Office Theory pages gives a strong positive correlation with Box Office Gross.

Just a quick reminder Avatar 2 is going to make 4 billies minimum

Missed you. 

 

Edited October 6, 2019 by captainwondyful

[grim22]

 

 

 

[cdsacken]

1 hour ago, cannastop said:

According to the experts, The Lion King 2019 should have made twice that much.

 

If only kids liked it...

2.2B would have been amazing. 99.9 % of the board thought it would that or less. Kids were definitely bored by it. I thought it would be awesome like Aladdin. It was not.

 

That's like saying excel is the joker expert.