Weekend Thread: Weekend Estimates - Jokah 55, Addams 30.3, Gemini 20.5, Abominable 6.2, Downton 4.9 | Parasite generates 125.4K PTA (highest since La La Land)

[reddevil19]

1 minute ago, Thanos Legion said:

Should be more like +40 Sat, -35 Sun. Check out Gravity, Martian, Columbus day weekends. Still about a 3.3 IM though.

Not sure how that stacks up. Gravity and The Martian opened over Columbus Day, did they not?

Joker fell 25% opening Sunday, without a holiday the following day.

[a2k]

Top 20 2nd weekends

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Weeknd Gross*	% of Total	Theaters / Avg.		Total Gross^	Date**
1	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	BV	$149,202,860	15.9%	4,134	$36,092	$936,662,225	12/18/15
2	Avengers: Endgame	BV	$147,383,211	17.2%	4,662	$31,614	$858,373,000	4/26/19
3	Avengers: Infinity War	BV	$114,774,810	16.9%	4,474	$25,654	$678,815,482	4/27/18
4	Black Panther	BV	$111,658,835	15.9%	4,020	$27,776	$700,059,566	2/16/18
5	Jurassic World	Uni.	$106,588,440	16.3%	4,291	$24,840	$652,270,625	6/12/15
6	Marvel's The Avengers	BV	$103,052,274	16.5%	4,349	$23,696	$623,357,910	5/4/12
7	Beauty and the Beast (2017)	BV	$90,426,717	17.9%	4,210	$21,479	$504,014,165	3/17/17
8	Incredibles 2	BV	$80,347,651	13.2%	4,410	$18,219	$608,581,744	6/15/18
9	Avengers: Age of Ultron	BV	$77,746,929	16.9%	4,276	$18,182	$459,005,868	5/1/15
10	The Lion King (2019)	BV	$76,621,553	14.1%	4,725	$16,216	$541,549,012	7/19/19
11	Avatar	Fox	$75,617,183	10.1%	3,456	$21,880	$749,766,139	12/18/09
12	The Dark Knight	WB	$75,166,466	14.1%	4,366	$17,216	$533,345,358	7/18/08
13	The Hunger Games: Catching Fire	LGF	$74,179,601	17.5%	4,163	$17,819	$424,668,047	11/22/13
14	Finding Dory	BV	$72,959,954	15.0%	4,305	$16,948	$486,295,561	6/17/16
15	Captain America: Civil War	BV	$72,637,142	17.8%	4,226	$17,188	$408,084,349	5/6/16
16	Iron Man 3	BV	$72,525,615	17.7%	4,253	$17,053	$409,013,994	5/3/13
17	Shrek 2	DW	$72,170,363	16.4%	4,223	$17,089	$441,226,247	5/19/04
18	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	BV	$71,565,498	11.5%	4,232	$16,911	$620,181,382	12/15/17
19	Spider-Man	Sony	$71,417,527	17.7%	3,615	$19,755	$403,706,375	5/3/02
20	Captain Marvel	BV	$67,988,130	15.9%	4,310	$15,775	$426,829,839	3/8/19

 

20-40

Spoiler

21	Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2	BV	$65,263,492	16.7%	4,347	$15,013	$389,813,101	5/5/17
22	American Sniper	WB	$64,628,304	18.5%	3,705	$17,444	$350,126,372	1/16/15
23	Rogue One: A Star Wars Story	BV	$64,033,768	12.0%	4,157	$15,404	$532,177,324	12/16/16
24	Alice in Wonderland (2010)	BV	$62,714,076	18.8%	3,728	$16,822	$334,191,110	3/5/10
25	Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest	BV	$62,345,264	14.7%	4,133	$15,084	$423,315,812	7/7/06
26	The Dark Knight Rises	WB	$62,101,451	13.9%	4,404	$14,101	$448,139,099	7/20/12
27	The Jungle Book (2016)	BV	$61,538,821	16.9%	4,028	$15,278	$364,001,123	4/15/16
28	Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom	Uni.	$60,912,195	14.6%	4,485	$13,581	$417,719,760	6/22/18
29	It	WB (NL)	$60,103,110	18.4%	4,148	$14,490	$327,481,748	9/8/17
30	Toy Story 4	BV	$59,700,331	13.8%	4,575	$13,049	$433,379,910	6/21/19
31	Furious 7	Uni.	$59,585,930	16.9%	4,022	$14,815	$353,007,020	4/3/15
32	Toy Story 3	BV	$59,337,669	14.3%	4,028	$14,731	$415,004,880	6/18/10
33	The Hunger Games	LGF	$58,551,063	14.4%	4,137	$14,153	$408,010,692	3/23/12
34	Wonder Woman	WB	$58,520,672	14.2%	4,165	$14,051	$412,563,408	6/2/17
35	Spider-Man 3	Sony	$58,166,256	17.3%	4,252	$13,679	$336,530,303	5/4/07
36	Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone	WB	$57,487,755	18.1%	3,672	$15,655	$317,575,550	11/16/01
37	Thor: Ragnarok	BV	$57,078,306	18.1%	4,080	$13,990	$315,058,289	11/3/17
38	The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 1	LGF	$56,972,599	16.9%	4,151	$13,725	$337,135,885	11/21/14
39	Deadpool	Fox	$56,470,167	15.6%	3,722	$15,172	$363,070,709	2/12/16
40	Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith	Fox	$55,205,972	14.5%	3,663	$15,071	$380,270,577	5/19/05

 

[MrFanaticGuy34]

29 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think 20m+ friday is happening. AMC is adding more shows to Joker and I am expecting a good increase in show count by late afternoon. Juggernauts defy gravity. 70m+ 2nd weekend. That means its looking at 400m domestic run !!!!

That would put it above The Passion of Christ, which still is the biggest R-rated film with $370M DOM even after 15 years.

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

Not sure how that stacks up. Gravity and The Martian opened over Columbus Day, did they not?

Joker fell 25% opening Sunday, without a holiday the following day.

No, both had Columbus 2nd weekend like Joker. Gone Girl too, but the raw numbers there were getting pretty small.  

 

I think Joker's first Sun was skewed rather than Joker just having super strong Sundays as a rule, but I could see -30 or high 20s perhaps.

[reddevil19]

Just now, Thanos Legion said:

No, both had Columbus 2nd weekend like Joker. Gone Girl too, but the raw numbers there were getting pretty small.  

 

I think Joker's first Sun was skewed rather than Joker just having super strong Sundays as a rule, but I could see -30 or high 20s perhaps.

Yeah, you're right, I was looking at the wrong calendar, lol.

But what makes you think Joker's Sun was skewed? Course we won't really know until we see more of them, but what's the indication for it? 

[John Marston]

Looks like Smith might not be worth the money he is demanding now 

[StarWarsMemer]

So 2nd highest 2nd weekend for WB after The Dark Knight wtf? I think A Star Is Born is the best comp. This could beat Deathly Hallows Part 2 and become WB's 4th highest grossing movie. It could also pass Venom, Ragnarok, Guardians 2, The Amazing Spider-Man, Homecoming, and Batman vs Superman worldwideif it holds well overseas. WE LIVE IN A SOCIETY

[narniadis]

What would be interesting is if Joker pulls an American Sniper - great / massive 2nd weekend and then inexplicable meh legs after a 10 day crazy run. Would put it well over 350m but not enough for the 400m train. 

 

That being said, not wishing it just noting the other R rated large film it could track like. 

[reddevil19]

5 minutes ago, a2k said:

24

Alice in Wonderland (2010)

BV

$62,714,076

18.8%

3,728

$16,822

$334,191,110

3/5/10

 

Oh, yeah...that movie made a billion. 😐  

[grim22]

9 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

Not sure how that stacks up. Gravity and The Martian opened over Columbus Day, did they not?

Joker fell 25% opening Sunday, without a holiday the following day.

It's not just Columbus Day weekend this weekend though. There's also the added boost of Canadian Thanksgiving on Monday which will lead to great holds in Canada. Both those can combine together for a really good Sunday and Monday.

[narniadis]

1 minute ago, grim22 said:

It's not just Columbus Day weekend this weekend though. There's also the added boost of Canadian Thanksgiving on Monday which will lead to great holds in Canada. Both those can combine together for a really good Sunday and Monday.

And then "poor" tuesdays 🤣 always something. 

[FlashMaster659]

3 minutes ago, narniadis said:

What would be interesting is if Joker pulls an American Sniper - great / massive 2nd weekend and then inexplicable meh legs after a 10 day crazy run. Would put it well over 350m but not enough for the 400m train. 

 

That being said, not wishing it just noting the other R rated large film it could track like. 

In American Sniper's case, that was mostly because of the Super Bowl being in its 3rd weekend

[MrGlass2]

+ second weekend: $63.4M

Edited October 11, 2019 by MrGlass2

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

+ second weekend: $63.4M

still not enough to pass the mighty total of dark phoenix 

[reddevil19]

This is really getting the blood flowing. As fantastic as an Endgame/Force Awakens type of opener is, it's these amazing runs that seemingly come out of nowhere that are so fun to watch. Kinda like Wonder Woman in a way. Very good opening, if not out-of-this-world, but the legs were the bigger story.

[grim22]

2 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

+ second weekend: $63.4M

Let's be real, anything better than a 50% second weekend drop is ridiculously good.

[cdsacken]

I think expecting 4.1x legs is pretty crazy. Lots of competition coming, all premium screens will be gone which will hurt demand slot. Still amazing though. So glad it got to keep lots of premium formats this week. It deserves it given the incredible demand and wom.

[cdsacken]

3 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Let's be real, anything better than a 50% second weekend drop is ridiculously good.

Feels like sub 40% is a lock and apparently I'm pessimistic. What a world we live in. Go Joker go 

[Porthos]

As I was just saying off this thread I'm shocked, but not surprised.  Or maybe surprised but not shocked is the better way to put it.  I was thinking to myself last Sat and Sun as international numbers rolled in that the DOM market was underperforming relative to the rest of the world.  This could be a case of the DOM catching up with the international market.

 

I also was... skeptical of Yom Kippur being responsible for Joker's Wed drop off of Discount Tuesday, but I held my tongue and deferred to the board's experts.  In retrospect that might have been an overlooked sign.

 

Either way, nothing but amazement for Joker's run.  I'll leave the whys and wherefores for others.

[MrGlass2]

6 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Let's be real, anything better than a 50% second weekend drop is ridiculously good.

Of course, but $48M wouldn't be a good multiplier from Thursday (worse than Venom, Logan, Captain Marvel, Shazam...).

Edited October 11, 2019 by MrGlass2