Weekend Thread: Estimates - Mal2 36, Jokah 29.2, Zombi2 26.7, Addams 16, Gemini 8.5 | Parasite 1.2 (37.6K), Lighthouse 420K (52K), Jojo 350K (70K avg)

[Felandria]

Okay, so Super Troopers 2 had a 10.8x multiplier from Thursday previews.

 

Zombieland 2 over or under that?

[cdsacken]

13 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

So Joker will be #1 again next weekend?

If it hits 34+ maybe. Huge jumps needed and strong Sunday hold

[TalismanRing]

37 minutes ago, SLAM! said:

 

Hollywood needs to learn the lesson that, while some films become really big, only a handful warrant sequels that can actually be just as successful as their first films. Personally, I think they're learning--ever-so-slowly, but they're definitely learning.

Hollywood already knows this and most studios budget for it.  Sequels regularly dropped 25-40% in the 80s, 90s etc.  Most still do.  Continuously building on sequels like Marvel or F&F (until it hit it's height then dropped 30%+ domestic) is what's abnormal.   Even SW sequels dropped like that with the third rebounding though not as big as the first in each trilogy.   60-70+% Drops for Alice, SLOP 2, Dark Phoenix are another matter entirely.

[reddevil19]

1 minute ago, cdsacken said:

If it hits 34+ maybe. Huge jumps needed and strong Sunday hold

Next weekend...

If Mal 2 and Zombieland 2 drop 50%+, it's quite likely.

[Zakiyyah6]

Did anyone actually believe that Mal 2 wasn't going to drop huge from the first film? 

[Jiffy]

Would have liked to see Mal 2 at least break $40m. 

 

Oh well!

[Eric Duncan]

Me waiting for BOP to update and give me the Long-Range Forecast

 

[DAJK]

5 minutes ago, Eric Addams said:

Me waiting for BOP to update and give me the Long-Range Forecast

 

It's actually not funny how accurate this is I'm having a hard time starting my homework cause I keep thinking "I'll check on the Long Range forecast one more time"

[Cap]

2 minutes ago, DAJK said:

It's actually not funny how accurate this is I'm having a hard time starting my homework cause I keep thinking "I'll check on the Long Range forecast one more time"

That was me last night waiting for BOM to update the theater counts for Survivor. I feel your (and Eric’s suffering).

[cdsacken]

23 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Did anyone actually believe that Mal 2 wasn't going to drop huge from the first film? 

I wouldn't be shocked to see 500m or less.

[Xftg123]

Date Comparisons (Maleficent and Zombieland):

 

-Maleficent

Opened:  May 30, 2014

Opening Weekend: 69.4M

 

-Zombieland

Opened:  October 2, 2009

Opening Weekend: 24.7M

 

Maleficent 2 was going to be released in May 2020, but it got pushed to October. This explains best as to why it moved up:

Quote

It's common for big blockbusters to have their release dates delayed, but Maleficent: Mistress of Evil had the exact opposite happen.

 

Earlier this year, Disney brought forward the Maleficent sequel seven months from its scheduled May 2020 release to October 18, 2019. No reason was given at the time, but director Joachim Rønning has now spoken about the surprising change.

 

"I think [Disney] saw an opportunity to bring it forward. They saw a director's cut and they were happy with it, and they saw that maybe we don't need to wait another seven months," he told Digital Spy.

 

"I think it was nice to also get out in front of Halloween. It's a scarier movie, so suddenly it was an opportunity to be had. I was very happy with that."

 

Edited October 18, 2019 by Xftg123

[MrGlass2]

Obviously Halloween is a fantastic release date for a family movie, Disney just didn't see the jokkernaut coming.

[TalismanRing]

19 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

I wouldn't be shocked to see 500m or less.

The surprise was that the first one did $758m.  $500m or so is probably within projections for the sequel.

[filmlover]

May 29, 2020 was also a week before Wonder Woman 2, so obviously Disney figured the movie was gonna be ready in time for an October release and that it would be a better spot for it (and in the meantime sent Artemis Fowl back nine months to die in that original spot lol).

[keysersoze123]

Ok Really early update. Zombieland is like 35-40% behind Mal 2 and is at 30% slower run rate as well. I am expecting late shows to be lot stronger for Zom over Mal 2.

I would say
10m Mal 2 true Friday
9-9.5m joker (still early for joker as its all walks up based)
6.5-7m true Friday Zom

So Mal 2 at this point looks like winning the weekend but its really early to confirm it.

[xiazhi]

3 hours ago, Frozen said:

 

what a flop

[WeneedtotalkaboutKevin]

2 hours ago, a2k said:

hmmm...16.5x preview to OW multi.

13-14x for MAL2 gives 29.9-32.2 ow.

 

So JOKER has a decent chance to three-peat.

No, it does not. MAL2 is obviously the no.1.

[WeneedtotalkaboutKevin]

1 hour ago, cdsacken said:

If it hits 34+ maybe. Huge jumps needed and strong Sunday hold

It won't. MAL 2 is still strong.

[DAJK]

Just now, WeneedtotalkaboutKevin said:

No, it does not. MAL2 is obviously the no.1.

Right, I totally forgot that we should expect Joker to drop 60+%

[Xftg123]

36 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Obviously Halloween is a fantastic release date for a family movie, Disney just didn't see the jokkernaut coming.

WW84 was supposed to be out November 1st this year, but then Warner Bros would've ended up getting hit by the Frozen freight train.