Weekend Thread: Estimates - Mal2 36, Jokah 29.2, Zombi2 26.7, Addams 16, Gemini 8.5 | Parasite 1.2 (37.6K), Lighthouse 420K (52K), Jojo 350K (70K avg)

[Geo1500]

I am worried for frozen 2 i think is gonna flop big time. Its light maleficient 2 and come right after each other 

Edited October 18, 2019 by Geo1500

[filmlover]

That would be a bad hold for Addams Family and an utterly godawful one for Gemini Man if those hold up.

[TalismanRing]

20 minutes ago, a2k said:

MAL2 will have a tough time crossing 35 if Deadline's 11.75 Fri holds.

 

2.3

9.45

13.2 (+40%)

9.9 (-25%)

= 34.85

Have been optimistic.

 

A 40% jump for Sat isn't really that optimistic.  Nutcracker was 60%+

[a2k]

MAL1 beat some big films globally in 2014. Did over 2/3rds what the #1 film did.

 

1	Transformers: Age of Extinction	Par.	$1,104.1	$245.4	22.2%	$858.6	77.8%
2	The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies	WB (NL)	$956.0	$255.1	26.7%	$700.9	73.3%
3	Guardians of the Galaxy	BV	$773.3	$333.2	43.1%	$440.2	56.9%
4	Maleficent	BV	$758.5	$241.4	31.8%	$517.1	68.2%
5	The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 1	LGF	$755.4	$337.1	44.6%	$418.2	55.4%
6	X-Men: Days of Future Past	Fox	$747.9	$233.9	31.3%	$513.9	68.7%
7	Captain America: The Winter Soldier	BV	$714.3	$259.8	36.4%	$454.5	63.6%
8	Dawn of the Planet of the Apes	Fox	$710.6	$208.5	29.3%	$502.1	70.7%
9	The Amazing Spider-Man 2	Sony	$709.0	$202.9	28.6%	$506.1	71.4%
10	Interstellar	Par.	$677.5	$188.0	27.8%	$489.4	72.2%

 

MAL2 won't make it to top-10 even amongst Hollywood films with SW, Frozen, Jumanji to come; 2 of those 3 will keep MAL2 out of top 10.

1	Avengers: Endgame	BV	$2,797.8	$858.4	30.7%	$1,939.4	69.3%
2	The Lion King (2019)	BV	$1,649.8	$542.7	32.9%	$1,107.1	67.1%
3	Spider-Man: Far from Home	Sony	$1,131.5	$390.5	34.5%	$741.0	65.5%
4	Captain Marvel	BV	$1,128.3	$426.8	37.8%	$701.4	62.2%
5	Toy Story 4	BV	$1,069.5	$433.6	40.5%	$635.9	59.5%
6	Aladdin (2019)	BV	$1,050.6	$355.5	33.8%	$695.1	66.2%
7	Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw	Uni.	$758.7	$173.6	22.9%	$585.1	77.1%
8	Ne Zha	WGUSA	$700.5	$3.7	0.5%	$696.9	99.5%
9	The Wandering Earth	CMC	$699.8	$5.9	0.8%	$693.9	99.2%
10	Joker (2019)	WB	$610.9	$218.0	35.7%	$392.9	64.3%

 

That's not to say MAL2 is a flop disaster. It could break-even.

Edited October 18, 2019 by a2k

[Old Spice]

6 minutes ago, Geo1500 said:

I am worried for frozen 2 i think is gonna flop big time. Its light maleficient 2 and they are coming right after each other 

Frozen's trailers look great and it has way more goodwill to draw upon than Maleficent 2. It may not do the business of the first, which was a phenomenon, I can't see it going much below it either.

[Last Man Standing]

13 minutes ago, Geo1500 said:

I am worried for frozen 2 i think is gonna flop big time. Its light maleficient 2 and come right after each other 

I don't think that's possible

[Jake Gittes]

11 minutes ago, filmlover said:

That would be a bad hold for Addams Family and an utterly godawful one for Gemini Man if those hold up.

Deadline is giving Gemini Man a better IM than Addams lmao. With 3.9m friday the latter should be doing 15+ for the weekend.

[Barnack]

14 minutes ago, Xftg123 said:

Someone stated on Reddit's Box Office sub that the movie needs, correct me if I'm wrong, over 460M in order to breakeven.

I think that WW Break even point like do not really "exist", market break down is too important at least in the sony leak the evaluation of the needed performance for a movie to break even by the accountant always had a dom/intl break down, never an alone figure of the sort.

 

The person could be assuming a 30/70 with an average China performance in mind when saying that number but you also need to know how much performance bonus are kicking in first dollar wise (or pre-break even in general) to be able to have an somewhat reliable estimate.

 

But it would be a reasonable figure (if it would reach that figure it would be intl heavy, making a 2.5 budget multiplier probably in that ballpark), except if a 15% is going to talents before break even, raising the budget at break even to 260-265M instead of 185 and upping that figure to 570m....

[dudalb]

Just now, A Star is Orm said:

Frozen's trailers look great and it has way more goodwill to draw upon than Maleficent 2. It may not do the business of the first, which was a phenomenon, I can't see it going much below it either.

Frozen 2 will do well, but trying to capture lighting in a bottle twice is always hard.

 

[Xftg123]

@Barnack

 

I don't think we've gotten anything yet regarding Maleficent 2's marketing costs either.

 

25 minutes ago, Barnack said:

But it would be a reasonable figure (if it would reach that figure it would be intl heavy, making a 2.5 budget multiplier probably in that ballpark), except if a 15% is going to talents before break even, raising the budget at break even to 260-265M instead of 185 and upping that figure to 570m....

So, it needs 570M to break-even? Or, do we not know yet?

[stephanos13]

41 minutes ago, Geo1500 said:

I am worried for frozen 2 i think is gonna flop big time. Its light maleficient 2 and come right after each other 

You are trolling right?

[Darth Lehnsherr]

28 minutes ago, a2k said:

MAL1 beat some big films globally in 2014. Did over 2/3rds what the #1 film did.

 

1	Transformers: Age of Extinction	Par.	$1,104.1	$245.4	22.2%	$858.6	77.8%
2	The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies	WB (NL)	$956.0	$255.1	26.7%	$700.9	73.3%
3	Guardians of the Galaxy	BV	$773.3	$333.2	43.1%	$440.2	56.9%
4	Maleficent	BV	$758.5	$241.4	31.8%	$517.1	68.2%
5	The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 1	LGF	$755.4	$337.1	44.6%	$418.2	55.4%
6	X-Men: Days of Future Past	Fox	$747.9	$233.9	31.3%	$513.9	68.7%
7	Captain America: The Winter Soldier	BV	$714.3	$259.8	36.4%	$454.5	63.6%
8	Dawn of the Planet of the Apes	Fox	$710.6	$208.5	29.3%	$502.1	70.7%
9	The Amazing Spider-Man 2	Sony	$709.0	$202.9	28.6%	$506.1	71.4%
10	Interstellar	Par.	$677.5	$188.0	27.8%	$489.4	72.2%

 

Man will 2020 be a repeat of 2014?

[Alli]

3 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Man will 2020 be a repeat of 2014?

how?

[Xftg123]

5 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Man will 2020 be a repeat of 2014?

Maybe? Their might be some films in 2020 that'll do close to 1B or end up in the 800-900M range.

[Cap]

Debating if I want to end this dumb work day with going to see Maleficent in an hour or going home to sleep it off.  I think it will depend on how long it takes to do my paperwork.  🤔

 

ETA: 

Never mind.  Gonna go sleep it off.  If I'm feeling adventurous, maybe a late show.

[Barnack]

1 minute ago, Xftg123 said:

So, it needs 570M to break-even? Or, do we not know yet?

We will probably never know (we pretty much never do)

[Xftg123]

@Alli

 

Their might be less billion dollar films in 2020. So far, billion dollar films in the 2010s have increased over the years:

 

2010: 2

 

2011: 3

 

2012: 4

 

2013: 2

 

2014: 1

 

2015: 5

 

2016: 4

 

2017: 4

 

2018: 5

 

2019: 6 (So Far)

 

So when 2020 hits, their might end up being somewhere around 1-3 films that end up hitting a billion at the box office.

[Alli]

@Xftg123   i see.   2020 indeed looks to have fewer billion movies. 

 

 

have you voted in my poll?

 

 

 

Edited October 18, 2019 by Alli

[keysersoze123]

56 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

A 40% jump for Sat isn't really that optimistic.  Nutcracker was 60%+

Would Mal 2 exactly behave like nutcracker. I looked at PS for day 2 at AMC/Cinemark and AMC is 25% ahead while cinemark is like 15%. I will update end of day and I am expecting PS to total multi to be better tomorrow as well. That said 60% seem too much for this movie being a sequel as well.

[TalismanRing]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

Would Mal 2 exactly behave like nutcracker. I looked at PS for day 2 at AMC/Cinemark and AMC is 25% ahead while cinemark is like 15%. I will update end of day and I am expecting PS to total multi to be better tomorrow as well. That said 60% seem too much for this movie being a sequel as well.

I don't think it's doing 60% either but 40% would seem to me more in the expected rather than optimistic range for a fall family film.