Weekend Thread: Estimates - Mal2 36, Jokah 29.2, Zombi2 26.7, Addams 16, Gemini 8.5 | Parasite 1.2 (37.6K), Lighthouse 420K (52K), Jojo 350K (70K avg)

[Legion Again]

22 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Man will 2020 be a repeat of 2014?

In nominal figures, doubt it. If you mean adjusted for the 6 years of WW market growth, sounds pretty reasonable (this would be top 3 1B+, 4 through 9 over 850).

[Ryan Reynolds]

 

[Eric Atreides]

The #s above seem legit. The Jumanji drop from its predecessor would be identical to It 2's drop from It 1, which sounds about right.

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, Eric Addams said:

The #s above seem legit. The Jumanji drop from its predecessor would be identical to It 2's drop from It 1, which sounds about right.

That multi over Christmas seems on the low end.  If it opened to $50-60m and did $300m that would be more probable.

[Eric Atreides]

Oh yeah, should probably @DAJK since his ass was anxious for the LRF too

[TLK]

9 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

 

 

Jumanji should do $300 million with a $70 million opening. Seems right for Richard Jewell although I won't be surprised with $100 million+ total.

[Eric Atreides]

2 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

That multi over Christmas seems on the low end.  If it opened to $50-60m and did $300m that would be more probable.

It's important to recognize that it will probably have a bad second weekend drop with TROS around. Maybe not Last Jedi bad, but I would be shocked if it dropped less than 60%, which will impact it quite a bit.

[Ryan Reynolds]

2 minutes ago, Eric Addams said:

It's important to recognize that it will probably have a bad second weekend drop with TROS around. Maybe not Last Jedi bad, but I would be shocked if it dropped less than 60%, which will impact it quite a bit.

Cats will hurt Jumanji more

[TalismanRing]

3 minutes ago, Eric Addams said:

It's important to recognize that it will probably have a bad second weekend drop with TROS around. Maybe not Last Jedi bad, but I would be shocked if it dropped less than 60%, which will impact it quite a bit.

It's still going to have all those holiday weekdays and family comedies really tend to leg it out over the holidays.

[JB33]

So, no chance Joker increases around something like 135% today?

[keysersoze123]

I am not seeing massive acceleration for either Mal 2 or Zombieland. Mal 2 wont hit 10m(without previews) while Zombieland is looking like 9m with previews at best. Joker probably is looking at 115% when I compared to thursday number but I can confirm in the evening.

[cdsacken]

2 hours ago, Geo1500 said:

I am worried for frozen 2 i think is gonna flop big time. Its light maleficient 2 and come right after each other 

What? It's nothing like it. Mal 1 should have flopped. Frozen 1 was a juggernaut. Worst case scenario is 1.2B WW calling it now.

[Jake Gittes]

first two Hobbit movies which opened the same weekend as Jumanji maxed out at 3.5/3.6x multis without a Star Wars to deal with. Hard to imagine over 4x here.

[Krissykins]

Will Frozen 2 be another It 2, Deadpool and drop from a wildly successful original? I think WW is on the same path, domestically. 
 

Anyway, that’s bad for Maleficent, missing industry tracking by $5m and Disney’s own tracking by $10m. 
 

Decent for Zombieland 2. 

[Xftg123]

47 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Cats will hurt Jumanji more

The three biggest competitions in December:

-Jumanji

-Cats

-Rise Of Skywalker

 

The fact that both Cats and Rise Of Skywalker are opening on the same day is going to end up being quite the interesting run.

[cdsacken]

Sure it's possible but it would be a Joker like miracle for Frozen 2 to FLOP. Toy Story 4 had no business existing and it 1.05 billion.

[Xftg123]

2 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Will Frozen 2 be another It 2, Deadpool and drop from a wildly successful original? I think WW is on the same path, domestically. 

I don't think so. It'll be an overall success.

 

It's definitely going to get a lot more money overseas though, especially in Japan.

[Xftg123]

@cdsacken

 

Funny thing is I was watching most of TS4 today. I haven't finished it yet and while I do enjoy the movie, the storyline definitely seems a bit more simpler/safer compared to the 3rd film.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

3 hours ago, kitik said:

Regarding the question of who's going to be #1 next weekend, is there even a snowball's chance that something like Countdown could overperform and beat both Joker and Maleficent to the top spot? 

 

Personally I haven't even seen a trailer or a single ad for Countdown, so I know nothing about it other than a 1-sentence plot, but it is a horror movie right before Halloween after all. So maybe a few magical days could make some money for it.

 

(Mind you, I'm certainly not expecting it, I'm just asking if it's possible.)

I think I've seen some ads for it on TV during sports, maybe? But more online. Here's the trailer, for anyone who missed it:

 

 

Countdown seems more like a January horror play to me, but STX won't lose money on it...

 

 

[Old Spice]

3 minutes ago, Xftg123 said:

The three biggest competitions in December:

-Jumanji

-Cats

-Rise Of Skywalker

 

The fact that both Cats and Rise Of Skywalker are opening on the same day is going to end up being quite the interesting run.

Felinicide.