Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 558m OS 1.073B WW

[Jamiem]

Couldn’t find a thread for Episode IX if there is one in the international section please feel free to shut this one down. Now that tickets are on sale how is it doing in international markets, I will have a comparison up for my theatre in New Zealand in a few hours. 

 

Also how do you think the film will do compared to TFA and TLJ? 

Edited March 3, 2020 by Jamiem

[John Marston]

650m

[charlie Jatinder]

Asia drop will continue. Let's see if Europe could hold it or I see dropping from TLJ sureshot.

[TMP]

12 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Asia drop will continue. Let's see if Europe could hold it or I see dropping from TLJ sureshot.

Predix?

[keysersoze123]

I am thinking between SW7 and SW8. Probably closer to latter. Around 750m OS. Finale effect will help.

[charlie Jatinder]

54 minutes ago, TMP said:

Predix?

TLJ did 712mn, with Asia - Japan doing around $85mn, make that $40-45mn Approx.

I guess Europe matches TLJ and Latin American go down due to exchange, $625-650mn Approx if Europe holds.

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

TLJ did 712mn, with Asia - Japan doing around $85mn, make that $40-45mn Approx.

I guess Europe matches TLJ and Latin American go down due to exchange, $625-650mn Approx if Europe holds.

Any reason for it to decrease so much in Asia? I thought it was already pretty much at the low point anyway.

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, Menor said:

Any reason for it to decrease so much in Asia? I thought it was already pretty much at the low point anyway.

China will drop to 10 from 45.

Rest will be to 30-35 from 40, with exchange rate lower and obviously no growth in franchise.

 

[Jamiem]

Albany Event Cinemas - Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker opening day (Thur 19/12/2019)first few hours of sale vs 3 days/12 hours to release of other films. 

 

0:01am  25/216

0:01am 30/216

0:01am GC 30/30

9:00am 9/216

10:20am 9/216

10:30am GC 0/30 

11:00am 10/216

11:20am GC 1/40 

12:20pm 11/216

1:40pm 10/216

1:50pm GC 0/30

2:20pm 3D 9/216

2:40pm GC 3D 4/40 

3:40pm 9/216

5:00pm 11/216

5:10pm GC 8/30

7:00pm 9/216

8:20pm 9/216

8:30pm GC 0/30

9.20pm 9/216

9.20pm GC 0/40 

10.20pm 9/216

 

Total  212/3294 (6.44%) 

 

Not bad for only being on sale for a few hours, the most notable thing is that only the small 216 seat cinemas are on sale so still plenty of room to grow with the bigger capacity theatres when they start going up for sale. Available seats are good as you can see compared the comps below. Also as you can see from the comps below (these three seemed the best that I had, I think TLK is the best comp personally) it’s early days but it has started very strong and should get better over the weeks leading up to release. I will do another update in about a week. 

 

Comps 

 

TLK 

 

Compared 3 days before 926/5338 (17.34%) = $1.17m

Compared 12 hours before 1831/5554(32.96%) = $591,654

 

Hobbs and Shaw

 

Compared 3 Days Before 139/1456 (9.54%) = $2.44m

Compared 12 Hours Before 361/3560 (10.14%) = $939,612

 

Joker

 

Compared 3 Days Before 160/1536 (10.41%) = $1.68m

Compared 12 Hours Before 446/2756 (16.18%) = $603,677

[TigerPaw]

In Asia, it is going against "Ip Man 4 - the finale", starring Donnie Yen.  Will not be an easy fight for ROTS.

For SW fans, you might know Yen as the highlight for Rogue One.

Yen is a huge star in Asia and Ip Man is one of the highest grossing Asian franchise (Not a purely China franchise but it is the highest grossing Asian movie in most of South East Asia). 

Edited October 22, 2019 by TigerPaw

[charlie Jatinder]

25 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

In Asia, it is going against "Ip Man 4 - the finale", starring Donnie Yen.  Will not be an easy fight for ROTS.

For SW fans, you might know Yen as the highlight for Rogue One.

Yen is a huge star in Asia and Ip Man is one of the highest grossing Asian franchise (Not a purely China franchise but it is the highest grossing Asian movie in most of South East Asia). 

won't make much difference.

[MrGlass2]

11 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

China will drop to 10 from 45.

Doubt it will drop so low.

[Bart Allen]

14 hours ago, Jamiem said:

Not bad for only being on sale for a few hours, the most notable thing is that only the small 216 seat cinemas are on sale so still plenty of room to grow with the bigger capacity theatres when they start going up for sale. Available seats are good as you can see compared the comps below. Also as you can see from the comps below (these three seemed the best that I had, I think TLK is the best comp personally) it’s early days but it has started very strong and should get better over the weeks leading up to release. I will do another update in about a week.

Interesting, but lets not forget how Solo was breaking Black Panther's advanced ticket sales 😂

 

https://deadline.com/2018/05/solo-a-star-wars-story-advance-ticket-sales-records-1202383121/amp/

Edited October 22, 2019 by Bart Allen

[Jamiem]

2 hours ago, Bart Allen said:

Interesting, but lets not forget how Solo was breaking Black Panther's advanced ticket sales 😂

 

https://deadline.com/2018/05/solo-a-star-wars-story-advance-ticket-sales-records-1202383121/amp/

Those are US statistics and only for the first 24 hours, Star Wars is obviously fan heavy on the first day as to be expected given past films. However this is the international thread and these are number out of NZ so there is little correlation between the two all I know is in roughly 4 hours at my local cinema TROS exceeded both Hobbs and Shaw and Joker (3 days before their subsequent releases). 

 

I’ll do a full update next week but right now the two midnight screenings that didn’t seem out have improved from 25 and 30 to 64 and 53 tickets sold which I assume if I did a full count would make it close to Hobbs and Shaw and Joker and the 12 hours before release mark.

 

Now this is only one cinema in the NZ market but so far so good here and already it seems to be outpacing Solo which I didn’t track however when I went to the midnight screening it was only rough half full. 

[Darth Lehnsherr]

$700M OS

Growth in traditional Star Wars markets will off-set decline in others. 

[Marcos12]

$720m.

Edited December 8, 2019 by Marcos12

[MattW]

A drop from Ep8 in China sure, but I don't think it does worse than Solo.  

All in all I think it ends up right around 700m

[charlie Jatinder]

FYI, exchange rates adjusted TLJ is ~$650mn Approx, that's with $40mn in China, which is expected to be par Solo. I won't be really surprised to see even struggle to $600mn if  two of big 4 UK, Germany,  Japan and France drops or Exchange rate collapse further.

[Jamiem]

1 hour ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

FYI, exchange rates adjusted TLJ is ~$650mn Approx, that's with $40mn in China, which is expected to be par Solo. I won't be really surprised to see even struggle to $600mn if  two of big 4 UK, Germany,  Japan and France drops or Exchange rate collapse further.

I can’t see it doing that bad that would be around Rogue One numbers which is crazy. I think the finale bump plus peoples love for TFA/JJ should get it to at least above TLJ although it will for sure fail to get to TFA numbers. 

 

I’m going with $800m-850m at the moment but that’s just my gut feeling. 

[James]

600-650m maybe.