Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 558m OS 1.073B WW

[Bart Allen]

13 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

TROS Don’t even make 6M in 2 days on China, so it’s comparable with TLJ anyway

 

 

 

21 minutes ago, John Marston said:

How good are these numbers?

 

19 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

At a first glance, they seem a bit down on TLJ (maybe 10%?). Anyone else with a more accurate comparison?

 

16 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

TLJ didn't open at the same time in China, so at least TROS has got that going for it 😅

"Star Wars: The Last Jedi is up against some tough box office records, but it's starting with the second-highest domestic preview opening of all time, Disney confirmed Friday. The film opened Thursday to an estimated $45 million, ahead of 2016's Rogue One ($29 million) and a little shy of 2015's The Force Awakens ($57 million, the all-time record). It has already made $105.8 million worldwide."

 

Even at this point The Last Jedi made more - and didn't have terrible critic reception (the audience reception isn't good too - might be an understatement actually). Bearing in mind that The Rise of Skywalker has a lot of competition in January compared to The Last Jedi.

Edited December 20, 2019 by Bart Allen

[ThomasNicole]

3 minutes ago, Bart Allen said:

 

 

 

"Star Wars: The Last Jedi is up against some tough box office records, but it's starting with the second-highest domestic preview opening of all time, Disney confirmed Friday. The film opened Thursday to an estimated $45 million, ahead of 2016's Rogue One ($29 million) and a little shy of 2015's The Force Awakens ($57 million, the all-time record). It has already made $105.8 million worldwide."

 

Even at this point The Last Jedi made more - and didn't have terrible critic reception (the audience reception isn't good too - might be an understatement actually). Bearing in mind that The Rise of Skywalker has a lot of competition in January compared to The Last Jedi.

Audience reception is better than TLJ, at least the early indicatives, besides from that, i guess everyone knows it won’t reach TLJ at this point. 

[Taruseth]

25 minutes ago, John Marston said:

How good are these numbers?

Not really good, especially considering that the German number is a two day number for this movie, while TLJ and TFA opened on a Thursday.

[Bart Allen]

7 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Audience reception is better than TLJ, at least the early indicatives, besides from that, i guess everyone knows it won’t reach TLJ at this point. 

How are you gauging audience reception? The 7k people who submitted their verified reviews on Rotten Tomatoes?

[Fullbuster]

It could have been worse tbh

[fabiopazzo2]

 

[Bart Allen]

Just now, Fullbuster said:

It could have been worse tbh

What are your thoughts on these numbers? That it did $99.1 so far (with China) as opposed to The Last Jedi's numbers at this point (without China till January 2018)?

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

Keep in mind that there's things inflating this number, Germany is counting two days instead of the one for TLJ plus CHINA.

 

At the end, the drop would be closer to 20% than to 10%. And this on the OD alone, and considering that most of the finales are more front-loaded (even when well received), I would say it isn't looking good, $600m may be in dangerous. 

[Justin4125]

18 minutes ago, Bart Allen said:

How are you gauging audience reception? The 7k people who submitted their verified reviews on Rotten Tomatoes?

The film also has solid posttrack exits, the polling method which is far more rigorous than the RT audience score. 

 

Out of the gate, Skywalker is a win for audiences with Thursday night Comscore/Screen Engine PostTrak polls showing 4 1/2 stars and a 76% definite recommend with parents and kids under 12, who showed up at 16% combined, giving the J.J. Abrams-directed finale five stars. General audiences repped 89% of the crowd.

 

https://deadline.com/2019/12/star-wars-rise-of-skywalker-opening-weekend-box-office-cats-bombshell-1202814594/

 

Still, those exits won't mean much. The low critic reviews and the legacy of TLJ, together with the added problems this new film raises, will clearly impact it at the BO. The point is more that this isn't a doom and gloom scenario, and it does seem, yes, that audiences are largely more happy with this film than they were with TLJ

 

Although I must say, that RT audience score for TLJ is clearly bullshit. It had solid exits as well and an A cinemascore. So although fans (as well those who seem to get some joy over hating this franchise) have loud voices and love to rate the movie negatively wherever possible, the GA was not nearly as unhappy about TLJ compared to how some make it seem. Therefore these encouraging scores likely just reflect the changes to RT's system, and its possible may yet see a TLJ style reaction (it can't be ruled out at the very least)

Edited December 20, 2019 by Justin4125

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

1 minute ago, Bart Allen said:

Who? What? Where? 😂

 

The one you quoted, lmfao. 

[Fullbuster]

8 minutes ago, Bart Allen said:

What are your thoughts on these numbers? That it did $99.1 so far (with China) as opposed to The Last Jedi's numbers at this point (without China till January 2018)?

I expected worse, - 25% on average given the TLJ reception. 

 

This isn't good  but at least it's not a disaster. 

 

 

[Bart Allen]

4 minutes ago, Justin4125 said:

The film also has solid posttrack exits, the polling method which is far more rigorous than the RT audience score. 

 

Out of the gate, Skywalker is a win for audiences with Thursday night Comscore/Screen Engine PostTrak polls showing 4 1/2 stars and a 76% definite recommend with parents and kids under 12, who showed up at 16% combined, giving the J.J. Abrams-directed finale five stars. General audiences repped 89% of the crowd.

 

https://deadline.com/2019/12/star-wars-rise-of-skywalker-opening-weekend-box-office-cats-bombshell-1202814594/

 

Still, those exits won't mean much. The low critic reviews and the legacy of TLJ, together with the added problems this new film raises, will clearly impact it at the BO. The point is more that this isn't a doom and gloom scenario, and it does seem, yes, that audiences are largely more happy with this film than they were with TLJ

 

Although I must say, that RT audience score for TLJ is clearly bullshit. It had solid exits as well and an A cinemascore. So although fans (as well those who seem to get some joy over hating this franchise) have loud voices and love to rate the movie negatively wherever possible, the GA was not nearly as unhappy about TLJ compared to how some make it seem. Therefore these encouraging scores likely just reflect the changes to RT's system, and its possible may yet see a TLJ style reaction (it can't be ruled out at the very least)

Interesting, interesting ~

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, Justin4125 said:

The film also has solid posttrack exits, the polling method which is far more rigorous than the RT audience score. 

 

Out of the gate, Skywalker is a win for audiences with Thursday night Comscore/Screen Engine PostTrak polls showing 4 1/2 stars and a 76% definite recommend with parents and kids under 12, who showed up at 16% combined, giving the J.J. Abrams-directed finale five stars. General audiences repped 89% of the crowd.

 

https://deadline.com/2019/12/star-wars-rise-of-skywalker-opening-weekend-box-office-cats-bombshell-1202814594/

 

Still, those exits won't mean much. The low critic reviews and the legacy of TLJ, together with the added problems this new film raises, will clearly impact it at the BO. The point is more that this isn't a doom and gloom scenario, and it does seem, yes, that audiences are largely more happy with this film than they were with TLJ

 

Although I must say, that RT audience score for TLJ is clearly bullshit. It had solid exits as well and an A cinemascore. So although fans (as well those who seem to get some joy over hating this franchise) have loud voices and love to rate the movie negatively wherever possible, the GA was not nearly as unhappy about TLJ compared to how some make it seem. Therefore these encouraging scores likely just reflect the changes to RT's system, and its possible may yet see a TLJ style reaction (it can't be ruled out at the very least)

 

I certainly think the trolls crashed its audience rating on sites like Rotten Tomatoes. But the legs are pretty solid evidence that it wasn't a typical "A" Cinemascore. TFA pulled a 3.8 multi, Rogue One pulled a 3.4 multi, and TLJ pulled a 2.8 multi. That's a drastic difference and 2.8 would be a solid result if this was May or some other month. But Christmas & New Years provide a pretty nice boost and with a supposed "A" reception from audiences, it should have been more in the neighborhood of a 3.2 or 3.3 multi. 

[Valonqar]

Unless it either holds crazy well from now on or has a crazy collapse, we might have a repeat of Hobbit BOTFA, where the movie's lifetime total ends within an inch of the previous one O/U notwithstanding. 

[John Marston]

4 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Unless it either holds crazy well from now on or has a crazy collapse, we might have a repeat of Hobbit BOTFA, where the movie's lifetime total ends within an inch of the previous one O/U notwithstanding. 

 

 

so far it's opening lower than TLJ everywhere so the overall total likely can't come within inches of TLJ

[Valonqar]

4 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

so far it's opening lower than TLJ everywhere so the overall total likely can't come within inches of TLJ

possible though I keep hearing about more favorable holiday days and better buzz than TLJ in Weekend forum? what's up with that?

[John Marston]

12 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

possible though I keep hearing about more favorable holiday days and better buzz than TLJ in Weekend forum? what's up with that?

meh, I doubt it. Even the people who think it is fine I doubt will give it crazy repeat viewings or anything

[redfirebird2008]

29 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

so far it's opening lower than TLJ everywhere so the overall total likely can't come within inches of TLJ

 

Don't know what the legs will be. I would not be shocked if it holds better than Last Jedi. 

[Justin4125]

10 minutes ago, John Marston said:

meh, I doubt it. Even the people who think it is fine I doubt will give it crazy repeat viewings or anything

It will. The closer proximity to the holidays leads to slightly deflated OW numbers and better second weekend drops. This is just the structure of the release date, we have plenty of comps, from the Hobbit films, Jumanji, TFA, Aquaman etc. Less frontloaded movies often even increase on second weekends with comparable release schedules (btw, where the major holidays are also advantageous compared to TLJ, TFA had this advantage as well). Regardless of WOM, differences in the release date give it a legs advantage. Given that its frontloaded I still expect 30-50% drops, but not the 60-70% TLJ and Rogue One faced

[John Marston]

12 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Don't know what the legs will be. I would not be shocked if it holds better than Last Jedi. 

It’s very hard for a finale to not be the most frontloaded of a series. We’ll see but I’d say it’s unlikely