Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 558m OS 1.073B WW

[Marathon]

24 minutes ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

374m WW? lol

 

 

How many markets are left?

Vietnam, South Korea, and Philippines, according to IMDb.

[PKMLover]

9 minutes ago, Marathon said:

Vietnam, South Korea, and Philippines, according to IMDb.

They wont add much...

[Juby]

$198 mln is from five days, right? 3-day weekend was "only" $142.5 mln?

 

I acctually don't know if Skywalker will even beat Rogue One's OS numbers! 😮

[Andreas]

Updated OS: $198.8M

Updated DOM: $177.38M

Updated WW opening: $376.15M

[George Parr]

5 hours ago, Juby said:

$198 mln is from five days, right? 3-day weekend was "only" $142.5 mln?

 

I acctually don't know if Skywalker will even beat Rogue One's OS numbers! 😮

That isn't really all that different from before. The other movies already had four day openings as well, plus the occasionaly market that always had a Wednesday start, like France. The only sizeable European market that Rogue One didn't start on Wednesday or Thursday on, was Spain. Japan got a Friday start, but that was like with TROS and all the other SW-movies, so no difference there. That leaves South Korea and China, which started later for Rogue One, and a handful of markets that normally started with 4 days + previews but now ended up with 5 whole days instead.

 

In other words, if you just want to go with the 3-day weekend, which would be a bit weird because many of the markets always count more days than that, you would need to do the same for Rogue One as well.

 

Doesn't mean that TROS will handily best Rogue One, but so far its numbers are still clearly ahead of it.

[Assumption]

What's the current realistic expectation for final WW total?

[Jamiem]

2 hours ago, Assumption said:

What's the current realistic expectation for final WW total?

3x legs of the worldwide opening weekend (yes I know it opened on Wednesday in some places) takes its to a little over $1.1B which I think is likely towards the high end given the mixed word of mouth. I’d say right around $1B is what the film will end up at but we doing really know til we start getting an idea of how the film will hold. 

[titanic2187]

It is rare that actual OS number didn't have huge jump from estimate by Disney standard

[peludo]

I do not know if this has been said but...

 

OS yearly ranking of Star Wars films:

 

Star Wars: #1 of 1977

Empire Strikes Back: #1 of 1980

Return of the Jedi: #1 of 1983

Phantom Menace: #1 of 1999

Attack of the Clones: #3 of 2002

Revenge of the Sith: #2 of 2005

Force Awakens: #2 of 2015

Rogue One: #8 of 2016

The Last Jedi: #5 of 2017

Rise of the Skywalker: OUT of top 10 of 2019 (it will finish #11 or #12)

 

2019 OS Ranking

 

Just Solo, which ranked #38 of 2018, had a worse ranking.

Edited December 24, 2019 by peludo

[George Parr]

1 hour ago, peludo said:

I do not know if this has been said but...

 

OS yearly ranking of Star Wars films:

 

Star Wars: #1 of 1977

Empire Strikes Back: #1 of 1980

Return of the Jedi: #1 of 1983

Phantom Menace: #1 of 1999

Attack of the Clones: #3 of 2002

Revenge of the Sith: #2 of 2005

Force Awakens: #2 of 2015

Rogue One: #8 of 2016

The Last Jedi: #5 of 2017

Rise of the Skywalker: OUT of top 10 of 2019 (it will finish #11 or #12)

 

2019 OS Ranking

 

Just Solo, which ranked #38 of 2018, had a worse ranking.

That says more about the developing of new markets than it does about the franchise though.

 

Star Wars simply does not work in asia outside of Japan, which already was a big market when it first came out. That didn't really matter back then, because during the times of the OT and PT asia outside of Japan was basically irrelevant, but in this day and age it makes all the difference in the world.

 

Outside of TFA, which got a boost from the enormous hype that created interest even in countries that didn't care for or knew about the franchise before, the movies aren't really behaving much differently than in the past. There is obviously some variation to it, but in general the main markets follow roughly the same results as before. The main difference then comes from these markets simply not carrying as much of a weight as in the past.

 

You could just as well look at the share of the domestic market for the worldwide box office. It's obviously still huge, and the gross itself might increase at times as well, but the sahre is declining due to  other markets, especially China, catching up.

[peludo]

1 hour ago, George Parr said:

That says more about the developing of new markets than it does about the franchise though.

 

Star Wars simply does not work in asia outside of Japan, which already was a big market when it first came out. That didn't really matter back then, because during the times of the OT and PT asia outside of Japan was basically irrelevant, but in this day and age it makes all the difference in the world.

 

Outside of TFA, which got a boost from the enormous hype that created interest even in countries that didn't care for or knew about the franchise before, the movies aren't really behaving much differently than in the past. There is obviously some variation to it, but in general the main markets follow roughly the same results as before. The main difference then comes from these markets simply not carrying as much of a weight as in the past.

 

You could just as well look at the share of the domestic market for the worldwide box office. It's obviously still huge, and the gross itself might increase at times as well, but the sahre is declining due to  other markets, especially China, catching up.

To drop from #5 to #11 or #12 in 2 years is not because of developing markets. TLJ did not work in Asia either.

 

Edit: it is finishing DOM, OS and WW, closer to Rogue One than to TLJ. There is obviously something wrong with this trilogy.

Edited December 24, 2019 by peludo

[pepsa]

16 minutes ago, George Parr said:

That says more about the developing of new markets than it does about the franchise though.

 

Star Wars simply does not work in asia outside of Japan, which already was a big market when it first came out. That didn't really matter back then, because during the times of the OT and PT asia outside of Japan was basically irrelevant, but in this day and age it makes all the difference in the world.

 

Outside of TFA, which got a boost from the enormous hype that created interest even in countries that didn't care for or knew about the franchise before, the movies aren't really behaving much differently than in the past. There is obviously some variation to it, but in general the main markets follow roughly the same results as before. The main difference then comes from these markets simply not carrying as much of a weight as in the past.

 

You could just as well look at the share of the domestic market for the worldwide box office. It's obviously still huge, and the gross itself might increase at times as well, but the sahre is declining due to  other markets, especially China, catching up.

I would like to add that dropping in Asia or being rejected by Asia is saying a lot about a franchise, you can't blame the Asian markets for this, it's the movies task to attract them. Because SW not finding the intrest of Asia is like Nokia being late on jumping on the smartphone wagon.

 

The new SW did a good job at getting more of Europe aboard with it. TPM and ROTS got pretty 'low' grosses in Belgium, The Netherlands, Germany, Denmark, Finland, Uk (compared to other big movies at that time LOTR, HP) whilst now it as the top in those markets. (Maybe not TROS anymore) so in europe SW did get a surge of popularity compared to the PT.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

It still will be a concern to Disney that Star Wars failed to expand OS when many other franchises have done so. Especially whenever the new films come out and the traditional Star Wars markets won't necessarily respond to them the way they did the sequel trilogy. 

[misafeco]

Hungary 4-day:

-5% compared to TLJ in admissions

+1% compared to TLJ in LC

-8.5% compared to TLJ in USD

 

Star Wars was always huge here, I expect it to finish in the same ballpark as VII-VIII. It shows the strength of the brand that despite the mixed reaction TLJ received, everyone is still watching it.

Legs will be interesting to watch, TLJ was super strong during the holidays but dropped big after unlike TFA.

[Feanor]

1 hour ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

It still will be a concern to Disney that Star Wars failed to expand OS when many other franchises have done so. Especially whenever the new films come out and the traditional Star Wars markets won't necessarily respond to them the way they did the sequel trilogy. 

Yep, this also concerns me.

 

I hope Disney & Lucasfilm don’t expect the new movies to reach $1bn right out of the gate just because 4 out of 5 Disney SW will have done so (assuming TROS reaches that mark too), cause otherwise they’ll probably go into panic mode and hectic short-term decisions is not what Star Wars needs right now.

[George Parr]

1 hour ago, peludo said:

To drop from #5 to #11 or #12 in 2 years is not because of developing markets. TLJ did not work in Asia either.

 

Edit: it is finishing DOM, OS and WW, closer to Rogue One than to TLJ. There is obviously something wrong with this trilogy.

Or maybe it is. Yes, the franchise may have dropped a bit, but there is way more to it than that. First of all, the new markets increase their share with every year, so if you fail there you are bound to lose ground. And then there is the competition. This year was extremely heavy on blockbusters, as Disney went all out with what they had. That's bound to be different than other years, like 2016, where there wasn't a real giant released all year.

 

The yearly finish is a rather empty thing anyway, as a year is nothing but an arbitrary timeframe. Look at Revenge of the Sith. It easily finished first domestically in 2005, with nothing even coming within 90m or so of it. Then you look at 2004 and 2006, which each had one movie that handily beat ROTS' total, with 2006 having another two that came really close to it. Or look at Infinity War, it beat TLJ, but was bested by Black Panther, TLJ won its year, while Infinity War only finished second. TLJ itself may have finished 5th internationally in 2017, but would have finished 2nd just one year before. Jurassic World ended up second in its year, even though its total would have smoked the competion in every year from 2010-2014 as well as 2016, and it would have won in 2017 as well. Instead you have a year like 2013, with not a single movie coming close to topping 400m. Even the fifth most successful movie of 2015 made more than the number one of 2013 (not taking inflation into account).

 

Btw, AOTC finished 4th in 2002 internationally, and would only have been 6th in 2003.

 

So while there is a clear indication that the franchise is losing ground, the yearly finish isn't a good indicator for much at all. It is only losely connected to the performance of the movie, as a movie can vastly outgross its predecessor but still end up with a lower ranking if there are simply more big movies in this particular year than in the past.

 

42 minutes ago, pepsa said:

I would like to add that dropping in Asia or being rejected by Asia is saying a lot about a franchise, you can't blame the Asian markets for this, it's the movies task to attract them. Because SW not finding the intrest of Asia is like Nokia being late on jumping on the smartphone wagon.

 

The new SW did a good job at getting more of Europe aboard with it. TPM and ROTS got pretty 'low' grosses in Belgium, The Netherlands, Germany, Denmark, Finland, Uk (compared to other big movies at that time LOTR, HP) whilst now it as the top in those markets. (Maybe not TROS anymore) so in europe SW did get a surge of popularity compared to the PT.

I didn't say that you should blame asia for this. Just that you cannot ignore the importance of asia in this day and age compared to the days of the OT and PT. Thing is, an age old franchise will have a tougher time getting into new markets than a new one will. Maybe the other two trilogies would have fared better in asia, but that is nothing but speculation. One cannot ignore the fact that when those trilogies came out, failing in asia was meaningless.

 

As for Europe. I'm not sure if it really got a surge of popularity. It did increase a bit, mostly in the smaller nations, but part of that just comes from the hype for TFA., Overall it seems more like the competition is a whole lot weaker now than it was back then. At the time of the prequels, you had LOTR and Harry Potter at their peak, plus highly successful animated movies. To use Germany as an example, LOTR topped 10m admissions every time, Harry Potter started with 12m, and then followed that up with 9.7m and 8m (with the 4th one), Ice Age was in the 7-9m range for its first three movies, Finding Nemo came close to 9m. Compared to that, the prequels with their 8m (9m with re-release), 5.7m and 5.6m didn't seem all that huge, outside of TPM.

 

But since then, The Hobbit was in the 6m range, the last few Harry Potter movies hovered around the 6m mark, with the spin-offs below 4m, animated movies didn't come close to earlier totals outside of maybe The Minions, which was just below the 7m mark. No movie has touched 7m since TFA, Fack ju Göhte 2 and Spectre passed that mark in 2015, with 2016 and 2018 seeing the top movie at 4m and 3.9m. Hollywood's largest releases mostly being comic book movies certainly hasn't helped with that, as they just weren't that popular here, with even the monster that was Endgame merely being big instead of a giant. Other nations have quite a few similarities with that. Finland, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Belgium, Austria, The Netherlands to some extent, they all have similar movies near the top if you look at the past 20 years, with just a few - mostly local - movies sprinkled in between. Outside of France and Italy, which are heavily driven by local movies, the old western European markets all seem to have a ton of older movies near the top over that timeframe. The UK looks somewhat more modern, but that is more due to going with money instead of tickets sold.

 

In direct comparison (for Germany), the 8m (9m), 5.7m and 5.6m of the prequels don't look all that different from the 9m, 5.9m and 5.x m of the sequels. If you remove the first movie of each trilogy, because that is the outlier in both cases, Episodes II and III and VIII and IX don't seem to be all that far apart in much of Europe. Give or take some changes on a local level.

[oMeriMombatti]

STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER
$29.2M Monday Estimate (Domestic)
$28.0M Monday Estimate (Overseas)
$206.6M 4-Day Domestic Total / $433.4M Global Total#StarWars #TheRiseOfSkywalker #BoxOffice

— Boxoffice Pro (@BoxOffice) December 24, 2019

[Carlangonz]

10 hours ago, pepsa said:

The new SW did a good job at getting more of Europe aboard with it. TPM and ROTS got pretty 'low' grosses in Belgium, The Netherlands, Germany, Denmark, Finland, Uk (compared to other big movies at that time LOTR, HP) whilst now it as the top in those markets. (Maybe not TROS anymore) so in europe SW did get a surge of popularity compared to the PT.

That happened the other way around with Latam. @salvador-232 has said many times that in Chile the PT did better based on market conditions than the ST currently. 

 

In Mexico The Rise of Skywalker is going under Revenge of Sith in admissions. That one also made it to 2005 Top 10 while TROS will barely make it to Top 20 of 2019. 

[stephanos13]

So that means:

$14.3M Tuesday

$16.8M Wednsday

$257.9M OS Total

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker passed the $500M global mark on Wednesday.

The film grossed an estimated $16.8M internationally for the day. International total stands at $257.9M, global total stands at $516.8M.#StarWarsTheRiseOfSkywalker #BoxOffice @DisneyStudios pic.twitter.com/LFVA2ruf34

— BoxOfficeReport.com (@BORReport) December 26, 2019

[oMeriMombatti]

Estimated international totals for Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker through Wednesday:

U.K. - $36.0M
Germany - $29.3M
France - $22.8M
Japan - $19.8M
Australia - $15.5M
China - $14.6M
Spain - $10.3M
Mexico - $9.3M
Italy - $8.1M
Brazil - $7.0M
Russia - $6.8M#StarWars #BoxOffice

— BoxOfficeReport.com (@BORReport) December 26, 2019