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Jamiem

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 558m OS 1.073B WW

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Hello, here is my final projections for TROS box office updated :

 

NA : $560M-$590M

 

Austria : $7.5M-$8.5M.              Argentina  : $3.5M-$4.5M

Belgium : $8.5M-$9.5M             Bolivia : $0.5M-$1M

Bulgaria : $1M-$1.5M                 Brazil : $17.5M-$20.5M

Croatia : $1M                               Chile : $4.5M-$5.5M

Czech Republic : $3.5M-$4M   Colombia : $2.5M-$3.5M

Denmark : $9M-$10M                Mexico : $15M-$17M

Egypt : $0.5M                              Paraguay : $0.5M

Finland : $9M-$12M                    Uruguay : $0.5M

France : $59M-$69M                 Venezuela : $0.5M-$1M

Germany : $71M-$77M               Total Latin America : $45M - $54M

Greece : $2.5M-$3M

Hungary : $5.5M-$6.5M               Hong Kong : $4.5M-$5.5M

Iceland : $1M                                  India : $1.5M-$2M

Italy : $17M-$19M                          Indonesia : $5M-$5.5M

Lithuania : $0.5M                            Japan : $70M-$80M

Netherlands : $11.5M-$12.5M       Malaysia : $3M-$3.5M

Norway : $7M-$8M                        Philippines :$4.5M-$5M

Poland : $9M-$10M                       Russia/CIS : $12M-$14M

Portugal : $3M-$3.5M                    Singapore : $3.5M-$4M

Romania : $2M-$2.5M                   South Korea : $6M-$10M

Serbia : $0.5M-$1M                       Taiwan : $3M

Slovakia : $1M                               Thailand : $4.5M-$5.5M

Slovenia : $0.5M                            Vietnam : $0.5M-$1M

Spain : $26M-$28M                       Total Asia : $118M - $139M

Sweden : $13M-$15M                                                   

Switzerland : $8M-$9M                  Australia : $37.5M-$40M

Turkey : $2M-$2.5M                       New Zealand : $5.5M-$6M

Ukraine : $2M-$2.5M                     Total Oceania : $43M-$46M

United Kingdom : $78M-$86M                                        

Total Europe : $370M-$415M         China : $16.5M-$18.5M

                                                                        

Nigeria : /                                        UAE : $2.5M-$3.5M

South Africa : $1.5M-$2M                                              

Total Africa : $2M                            Other countries : $10M-$15M

 

 

Total : $1167M (min range) - $1283M (max. range) = $1225M (med. range)

 

I know it's maybe a little bit optimistic in some markets but I think TROS can have better legs that TLJ, please tell me your prediction in your country and if you think I'm wrong anywhere you're welcome  

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@LPLC have your maximum projections changed since the Friday domestic drop, per chance? In how it could potentially influence, i.e. WOM? Should be interesting.

Edited by Bart Allen

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4 hours ago, LPLC said:

Hello, here is my final projections for TROS box office updated :

 

NA : $560M-$590M

 

Austria : $7.5M-$8.5M.              Argentina  : $3.5M-$4.5M

Belgium : $8.5M-$9.5M             Bolivia : $0.5M-$1M

Bulgaria : $1M-$1.5M                 Brazil : $17.5M-$20.5M

Croatia : $1M                               Chile : $4.5M-$5.5M

Czech Republic : $3.5M-$4M   Colombia : $2.5M-$3.5M

Denmark : $9M-$10M                Mexico : $15M-$17M

Egypt : $0.5M                              Paraguay : $0.5M

Finland : $9M-$12M                    Uruguay : $0.5M

France : $59M-$69M                 Venezuela : $0.5M-$1M

Germany : $71M-$77M               Total Latin America : $45M - $54M

Greece : $2.5M-$3M

Hungary : $5.5M-$6.5M               Hong Kong : $4.5M-$5.5M

Iceland : $1M                                  India : $1.5M-$2M

Italy : $17M-$19M                          Indonesia : $5M-$5.5M

Lithuania : $0.5M                            Japan : $70M-$80M

Netherlands : $11.5M-$12.5M       Malaysia : $3M-$3.5M

Norway : $7M-$8M                        Philippines :$4.5M-$5M

Poland : $9M-$10M                       Russia/CIS : $12M-$14M

Portugal : $3M-$3.5M                    Singapore : $3.5M-$4M

Romania : $2M-$2.5M                   South Korea : $6M-$10M

Serbia : $0.5M-$1M                       Taiwan : $3M

Slovakia : $1M                               Thailand : $4.5M-$5.5M

Slovenia : $0.5M                            Vietnam : $0.5M-$1M

Spain : $26M-$28M                       Total Asia : $118M - $139M

Sweden : $13M-$15M                                                   

Switzerland : $8M-$9M                  Australia : $37.5M-$40M

Turkey : $2M-$2.5M                       New Zealand : $5.5M-$6M

Ukraine : $2M-$2.5M                     Total Oceania : $43M-$46M

United Kingdom : $78M-$86M                                        

Total Europe : $370M-$415M         China : $16.5M-$18.5M

                                                                        

Nigeria : /                                        UAE : $2.5M-$3.5M

South Africa : $1.5M-$2M                                              

Total Africa : $2M                            Other countries : $10M-$15M

 

 

Total : $1167M (min range) - $1283M (max. range) = $1225M (med. range)

 

I know it's maybe a little bit optimistic in some markets but I think TROS can have better legs that TLJ, please tell me your prediction in your country and if you think I'm wrong anywhere you're welcome  

 

 


I won’t comment on exactly how much until we get weekend estimates tomorrow, but this looks way high. DOM I’d give more like 490-540. I have not been paying much attention to specific country totals for TROS, but the overall OS looks too high by a similar amount. Maybe Os diverges from DOM with a solid hold this weekend though 🤷‍♂️

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8 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:
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I won’t comment on exactly how much until we get weekend estimates tomorrow, but this looks way high. DOM I’d give more like 490-540. I have not been paying much attention to specific country totals for TROS, but the overall OS looks too high by a similar amount. Maybe Os diverges from DOM with a solid hold this weekend though 🤷‍♂️

OS will do more over the next 10 days and after that it will fall harder than DOM. OS should come in higher than DOM.

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1 hour ago, pepsa said:

OS will do more over the next 10 days and after that it will fall harder than DOM. OS should come in higher than DOM.

Would agree with this. I'd expect a 48-49% final domestic share.

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TROS is doing very bad in Russia and Ukraine.

 

In Russia they gained $5,77M with 1,11M admissions, which is much lower, than FA ($12,39M and 2,67M adm.) and TLJ ($8,52M and 1,63M adm).

 

On December 26, the film sank to the third place, behind two new local hits, and slightly above another local film which premiered a week earlier than TROS.

 

In Ukraine film premiered with horrible 164k admissions, which is less than Jumanji's sequel sophomore weekend (168K). TROS took the first place thanks only to the benefit of higher ticket prices.

 

There are some examples of films which had better start in Ukraine:

 

Terminator: Dark Fate - 169K

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil - 262K

It Chapter Two - 242K

Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood - 232K

The Hustle - 198K

Pokémon Detective Pikachu - 206K

Alita: Battle Angel - 269K

Glass - 179K

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Did $11m more than DOM on FSS, it should do 110m  in the next 7 days for a total of $470m OS.

Big drop the week after (maybe a 30m week) for $500m than another 45m an finish around $545m OS.

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37 minutes ago, Jabba'sMoofmilker said:

so 1 Billion is still good to go right?

I would say one billion is locked.  It will get close to the $1.1 billion mark which is not as bad as what was expected less than 24 hours ago. 

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42 minutes ago, pepsa said:

Did $11m more than DOM on FSS, it should do 110m  in the next 7 days for a total of $470m OS.

Big drop the week after (maybe a 30m week) for $500m than another 45m an finish around $545m OS.

$11M? Not $22M?

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14 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Over under Rogue One international and worldwide?

Over INT. WW probably too

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27 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Over under Rogue One international and worldwide?

 

Probably over, but barely.

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1 hour ago, Andreas said:

$11M? Not $22M?

On thursday OS was $7.4m lower and after the sunday number it's 1.2m higher so actualy the os FSS is 'only' 8.6m higher'.

The OS weekend also has some countries like Belgium with a 5day and other like Germany with a 4day.

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It seems both, domestic and overseas, Skywalker is going to finish with max. $550 mln. So $1.1B is max. where it'is heading.

Edited by Juby

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