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Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 558m OS 1.073B WW

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3 hours ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

 

When was the last time a big action blockbuster had china barely above spain (probably changing once the run is over) and behind Australia and Germany.

 

Also while we WW are talking about the question if it will end up below or above Rogue One, in part of Europe it's already close to RO final: TROS vs RO:

Germany: $44.1M vs $46.6M

France: $34.7M vs $39.4M

Spain: $14.6M vs $16.7M

 

In some markets its already above:

Mexiko: $12.8M vs $11.4M

Italy: $11.8M vs $10.9M

 

And then there are markets like the UK where it $30M below but probably will end up at the same gross and then there are markets like China where it will end up far below the OWend.

 

Perfectly illustrating the problem Star Wars has it lost its chance in Asia and lost its pole position in Europe.

Even in the "Superhero hating country" (Germany doesn't really hate superhero movies but for a long time they had a bad performance here compared to a lot of other countries and even now outside of Endgame they haven't really entered Tier 1 territory yet - damn Germany it is heading to a result right around Endgame (if you would have asked me during TFA's run if a Superhero movie could end up around or above a Episode, I would have said No, never.)

 

Is there any market where it has a chance of beating TLJ.

I have no idea - don't think it will get quite that far in Germany in admissions or €, in $ (due to the worse ER it's impossible).

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8 hours ago, Jabba'sMoofmilker said:

so 1 Billion is still good to go right?

won't fall under 1025 even with crap post-holiday legs (500 d + 525 os well locked)

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TFA did $133mn in its 2nd weekend for $546mn cume.

It legged out $1007mn with two extra December days i.e. 3.45x post weekend.

 

TLJ in its pre-New Year weekend i.e. 3rd, did $67mn & $535mn cume. Legged to $670mn i.e. 2x post weekend with two less days in December.

 

For TRoS,  2.7x would take it to $617mn. That looks like high :hahaha:

Since domestic legs are par TLJ, taking TLJ 2x will be around $550mn, that's high enough I guess.

Edited by Jedi Jat
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1 hour ago, Jedi Jat said:

TFA did $133mn in its 2nd weekend for $546mn cume.

It legged out $1007mn with two extra December days i.e. 3.45x post weekend.

 

TLJ in its pre-New Year weekend i.e. 3rd, did $67mn & $535mn cume. Legged to $670mn i.e. 2x post weekend with two less days in December.

 

For TRoS,  2.7x would take it to $617mn. That looks like high :hahaha:

Since domestic legs are par TLJ, taking TLJ 2x will be around $550mn, that's high enough I guess.

550m domestic I think would require really good holds outside the holidays. Low 500s is more realistic 

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1 minute ago, John Marston said:

550m domestic I think would require really good holds outside the holidays. Low 500s is more realistic 

Overseas not domestic. Dom I think may miss 500.

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9 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

Overseas not domestic. Dom I think may miss 500.

Whoa! That would be bad. I think it should at least crawl over the mark considering it should be at 460m or so at the end of next weeken d

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7 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

Overseas not domestic. Dom I think may miss 500.

Great, now miss 550 million overseas and end up in 1025-1050 range ww. 

 

Biggest franchise ever merchants need an L. 

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26 minutes ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

Great, now miss 550 million overseas and end up in 1025-1050 range ww. 

 

Biggest franchise ever merchants need an L. 

Deadline roars at you

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31 minutes ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

Great, now miss 550 million overseas and end up in 1025-1050 range ww. 

 

Biggest franchise ever merchants need an L. 

No one on this board has claimed that Star Wars is biggest franchise, in fact no one really says that for domestic concern. I don't know where are you getting this delusions

 

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1 hour ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

Great, now miss 550 million overseas and end up in 1025-1050 range ww. 

 

Biggest franchise ever merchants need an L. 

I think it would be fair to call SW the biggest franchise ever domestically. That doesnt necessarily reflect its current BO drawing power, though I do think this is the only franchise that can "flop" to around 500m domestically. Look at ANH, TPM and TFA on the all time domestic chart, who would contend that SW isnt the biggest franchise of all time domestically? The only other franchise in the same ballpark domestically is the MCU with 4 titles that topped 600m, but I give the edge to SW given the performance of the three titles I mentioned previously

 

Overseas is a different story. No one, I repeat no one, would ever contend that SW is the biggest franchise overseas

 

Still, I don't understand this whole "how the mighty have fallen" narrative. The relative underperformance of TROS doesnt all of a sudden invalidate all the success of the SW IP over the past decades. Besides, its been clear that the current SW films have been on a downward trajectory since TLJ. The performance isnt at all surprising when its current reception and WOM is accounted for. Yes, this film is a disappointment (by the franchise's high standards) but its not a surprising one. Disney SW is in damage control, but at least it can recoup its losses from Solo with TROS before heading back to the drawing board

Edited by Justin4125
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14 hours ago, Taruseth said:

Perfectly illustrating the problem Star Wars has it lost its chance in Asia and lost its pole position in Europe.

Even in the "Superhero hating country" (Germany doesn't really hate superhero movies but for a long time they had a bad performance here compared to a lot of other countries and even now outside of Endgame they haven't really entered Tier 1 territory yet - damn Germany it is heading to a result right around Endgame (if you would have asked me during TFA's run if a Superhero movie could end up around or above a Episode, I would have said No, never.)

 

Is there any market where it has a chance of beating TLJ.

I have no idea - don't think it will get quite that far in Germany in admissions or €, in $ (due to the worse ER it's impossible).

I don't think it is as surprising as you make it out to be. Yes, TFA was on another level, but that one also had completely unique circumstances. It's not like Star Wars has been a dominant franchise in Germany, rather it has always maintained a similar level, and only a long break followed by lots of hype has created the odd peak here and there. Back in 2002, AOTC beat Spiderman 5.7m to 5.2m, and while Spiderman certainly wasn't the norm for superhero movies, neither is Endgame.

 

 

Japan is the only real chance that I can see right now. The longetivity of that market makes it hard to say at this point, but so far it is neck and neck with TLJ. Unless there is a smaller market somewhere that has better numbers. Those are a bit hard to be aware of.

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I want to know only one thing - is my prophecy that Ep IX won't be in top 5 WW coming true? 

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20 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

I want to know only one thing - is my prophecy that Ep IX won't be in top 5 WW coming true? 

Yes, could go as low as place 9 atm (thats would mean under Aladin) probably will go over thought.

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1 hour ago, pepsa said:

Yes, could go as low as place 9 atm (thats would mean under Aladin) probably will go over thought.

Amazing. I expected EG, F2, TLK to definitely pass it. My hopes for 4 and 5 were CM, FFH and - please don't laugh (or laugh away!) - Pikachu and/or Hobbs and Shaw. :hahaha:

 

I'd love it if Jokah ends up higher WW than TROS. 

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