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Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 558m OS 1.073B WW

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4 minutes ago, DisposedData said:

Good or bad? It's so hard to tell because of New Years. 

Seems good to me but I'm not good at analyzing numbers.

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From Box Office Report:

 

Internationally, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker took in an estimated $20.9 million on Monday, which brings the film's international total to $384.2 million. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker passed the $750 million global mark on Monday and has grossed $761.5 million to date globally. Estimated international totals by market for Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker through Monday include $54.8 million in the United Kingdom, $46.6 million in Germany, $36.3 million in France, $33.0 million in Japan, $22.6 million in Australia, $17.7 million in China, $15.5 million in Spain, $12.7 million in Mexico, $12.3 million in Italy, $10.1 million in Brazil, $8.6 million in Russia and $8.0 million in Sweden.

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$104m week right between the 100m - 110m guess of last week.

 

Should do $30m this week and probably $38m after that. It going to stall at about $536m I think.   

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1 minute ago, pepsa said:

$104m week right between the 100m - 110m guess of last week.

 

Should do $30m this week and probably $38m after that. It going to stall at about $536m I think.   

Did you take SK and PH into consideration?

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Posted (edited)

I just want it to drop hard. if it could lose exactly 300M on TLJ or more I'd be happy because I want LFL to go forward with different cast and different timeline. I don't want to see Rey, Finn, Poe ever again and they will never win over expanded markets (all they did is shrink existing ones).

 

@Andreas TLJ made only 7.9M in SK and 5.2M in Philippines. No reason to expect increase for TROS. 

Edited by Valonqar
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4 minutes ago, Andreas said:

Did you take SK and PH into consideration?

SK I did, PH I didn't so it should go over $540m then.

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, pepsa said:

$104m week right between the 100m - 110m guess of last week.

 

Should do $30m this week and probably $38m after that. It going to stall at about $536m I think.   

I think it should be able to pull at least 2.5x in existing markets (especially since majors like Japan and Germany are leggy to relatively leggy). If it can do that plus another 10m from PH and SK based on a slight decline from Rogue One numbers, that brings us to an additional 86m or 554m. If it is able to earn another 20m-25m from Japan, I don't see how it finishes with just a 2.3x from existing markets, especially since the fast burn markets are already tapped out

 

EDIT: After looking at Smaug's run again I've changed my mind, I think 540m is a safer bet....

Edited by Justin4125

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, pepsa said:

SK I did, PH I didn't so it should go over $540m then.

Makes over RO looking very likely then :)

Edited by Andreas

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6 minutes ago, Andreas said:

Makes over RO looking very likely then :)

Wow so impressive. Lol

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Posted (edited)

Downward trend is downward trend. It's a warning to studios that they should not continue with the same cast unless they want to drive the series into the ground. Next movie would have made much less and maybe even deservedly bombed. I want TROS to drop as much as possible so that studio gets that they must move on. this cast is not bankable, they keep losing fandom and money so no reason to ever bring them back. I didn't see TROS in theaters because I didn't want to support their boxoffice. So I'm glad TROS dropped from TLJ.

Edited by Valonqar
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5 minutes ago, Justin4125 said:

I think it should be able to pull at least 2.5x in existing markets (especially since majors like Japan and Germany are leggy to relatively leggy). If it can do that plus another 10m from PH and SK based on a slight decline from Rogue One numbers, that brings us to an additional 86m or 554m. If it is able to earn another 20m-25m from Japan, I don't see how it finishes with just a 2.3x from existing markets

Haven't done the math country by country myself so let me check.

SK/PH $10m

Japan: $23m (20-25 seems right)

It did $19.4m this week so (WW - Japan did 84.6m)

And I know about Germany and Europe thats why I think it will drop super hard now, movies go crazy strong in the winter holiday but the week after movies see 65% drops. Desolation of smaug dropped that much and it had better WoM. So using 65% = $29.6m and it won't have the same hold so maybe about 27.5m and 1.8 times legs give it $50m.

 

468+55+23+10 = $551m

So yeah 550m is probably more likely, so you are right!

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4 minutes ago, pepsa said:

Haven't done the math country by country myself so let me check.

SK/PH $10m

Japan: $23m (20-25 seems right)

It did $19.4m this week so (WW - Japan did 84.6m)

And I know about Germany and Europe thats why I think it will drop super hard now, movies go crazy strong in the winter holiday but the week after movies see 65% drops. Desolation of smaug dropped that much and it had better WoM. So using 65% = $29.6m and it won't have the same hold so maybe about 27.5m and 1.8 times legs give it $50m.

 

468+55+23+10 = $551m

So yeah 550m is probably more likely, so you are right!

10m from SK and Philippines? Isn’t something like 4 or 5 million more likely? 

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