Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 558m OS 1.073B WW

[John Marston]

17 hours ago, Jamiem said:

I can’t see it doing that bad that would be around Rogue One numbers which is crazy. I think the finale bump plus peoples love for TFA/JJ should get it to at least above TLJ although it will for sure fail to get to TFA numbers. 

 

I’m going with $800m-850m at the moment but that’s just my gut feeling. 

Where would such a big increase come from?

[Jamiem]

35 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Where would such a big increase come from?

I’m thinking it will play similar yet a little weaker in some markets to Revenge of the Sith (higher than Attack of the Clones but some ways from The Phantom Menace) So I think TROS will be a small amount above TLJ $100m or so but still a far way from TFA overseas gross of over $1.1B. 

 

As for certain markets I think it can increase, I think Australia, New Zealand, Germany, France, Japan and UK (depending on if the exchange rate improves) are the most likely to get a boost as they are strong Star Wars markets that had fairly large drops from TFA to TLJ and as I mentioned it my post you quoted I think finale boost/JJ being back may provide a boost. 

Edited October 24, 2019 by Jamiem
Adding markets I think could improve from TLJ

[Valonqar]

I don't think it's gonna increase by 100M on TLJ. Old markets won't increase enough to close the gap created by markets that simply don't care. I feel that JJ stanning is clouding people's judgement. TFA didn't make that much because he's some crowd pleasing genius but because OT cast was back. And he didn't even do a good job with them. It's simply that some things sell no matter who handles them. 

[Jamiem]

4 hours ago, Valonqar said:

TFA didn't make that much because he's some crowd pleasing genius but because OT cast was back. And he didn't even do a good job with them. It's simply that some things sell no matter who handles them. 

While I’m not a huge fan of TFA to say it wasn’t crowd pleasing is crazy, TLJ was essentially the return of Luke but that didn’t make nearly as much TFA. While I believe that TLJ was a much better film than TFA, I still have to ad it that JJ is probably going to make a more appealing Star Wars film for general audiences. This is also being heavily marketed as a finale, and while some of us nerd are cynical I don’t think the general audience will be the same way and just like more people showed up for Sith over Clone I think the same thing happens here. 

 

Now the film could be awful and universally hated or maybe OS markets have soured more than what I believe, but at the moment I’m sticking with my predictions no matter how optimistic. What are you thinking it do OS? 

[Valonqar]

@Jamiem I know that TFA was a crowd pleaser, I just don't think it wouldn't be with a different director at helm. people blow JJ's boxoffice track record out of proportion. Trek movies were too expensive and didn't set OS on fire. Super 8 did fine but was fast forgotten. MI3 was the lowest grossing MI movie. None of his movies made even 400M WW before TFA. 

 

TLJ was he second movie and those, as a rule, have to shake the satus quo. granted, Rian didn't make a particularly entertaining movie but he wouldn't shake the status quote if he made TFA for there was none to shake. First movie builds the story, doesn't deconstruct it.

 

As for OS, no more than 700M range (TLJ)

[Jamiem]

11 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

@Jamiem I know that TFA was a crowd pleaser, I just don't think it wouldn't be with a different director at helm. people blow JJ's boxoffice track record out of proportion. Trek movies were too expensive and didn't set OS on fire. Super 8 did fine but was fast forgotten. MI3 was the lowest grossing MI movie. None of his movies made even 400M WW before TFA. 

 

TLJ was he second movie and those, as a rule, have to shake the satus quo. granted, Rian didn't make a particularly entertaining movie but he wouldn't shake the status quote if he made TFA for there was none to shake. First movie builds the story, doesn't deconstruct it.

 

As for OS, no more than 700M range (TLJ)

Yeah that’s fair criticism, however I think he did the best he could with Star Trek as I think that is generally move seen as something suited to TV and thus none of the Star Trek films have really broken out. But yeah other films have been more cold than hot. 

 

TLJ range wouldn’t be bad for the box office but I’m still hoping for a little bump. We’ll just have to wait a few more months and see were it all nets out.

[Valonqar]

ST09 had GA appeal (in North America) for JJ approached Trek as SW means beefed up action which really isn't what Trek is about. And many Trek fans never forgave him. He shit the bed with STiD for that was an inferior WoK remake and he was lying about it cause mystery box crap. Now movie Trek is dead for he turned away Trekkies while casual fans didn't stick around. But since damage was noticed after he left, Lin is blamed although JJ set the discourse in motion. 

Edited October 24, 2019 by Valonqar

[dudalb]

I am more interested in what the reaction to the film will be.

You could have a scenario where the marketing is successful and the film opens massively..bigger then TLJ...but if the film is seen as divisive or disappointing it will have definent consequences for the what the future of the franchise will be.

I still think it could be like the 007 Francise..still big, still profitable, but not dominant the way is once was.

[Firepower]

There's zero chance for increase from TLJ, it'll have big drop OS from TLJ and Jumanji/Cats will kill its legs. It's 2017 Christmas all over again with Cats instead of Greatest Showman.

[salvador-232]

40 minutes ago, Firepower said:

There's zero chance for increase from TLJ, it'll have big drop OS from TLJ and Jumanji/Cats will kill its legs. It's 2017 Christmas all over again with Cats instead of Greatest Showman.

People OS don't even know what Cats is 

[Menor the Destroyer]

People act like a finale bump is some automatic thing. There have also been many finales which dropped from previous installments. Imo TFA provided a stronger hook to TLJ (hugely discussed cliffhanger with Luke) than TLJ to TROS (marketing hinges on Palpatine which is out of left field and new characters who aren't as strong a draw as the OG). I think there will be a slight drop or flat OS.

[Firepower]

2 minutes ago, salvador-232 said:

People OS don't even know what Cats is 

They didn't know Showman too. I just feel like Cats will be one of those batshit crazy perfomances when movie that looks really strange and awful somehow strikes the chord and seriously overperforms. People love musicals, any musicals, as long as something dances and sings they are happy.

[salvador-232]

23 minutes ago, Firepower said:

They didn't know Showman too

That's why Showman wasn't a thing outside the Anglo world and Japan

[Brainbug]

580-650M OS is my range. TLJ OS i believe is out of reach. Many european markets should be on par with Last Jedi, but i overpredicted that one and that makes me a bit more cautious here. China will be at like 15M or so lol and Latin America doesnt really care about SW. Rise of Skywalker really needs some amazing WOM in the traditional markets (especially Japan, Germany, France, UK) to come anywhere near Last Jedi.

[darthdevidem01]

YUp this is dropping OS. English speaking markets will need to have a 30% bump on TLJ for it to even have a chance of beating TLJ OS total

Domestic TLJ is falling though...easily

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

This run will be hilarious -once again- in LA/Asia. I remember Solow opening outside of top 4 in several markets despite lack of competition.

 

$550m at best. 

[Zakiyyah6]

I just don't understand how anybody can predict this movie increasing overseas. Are certain territories going to suddenly start jumping on this bandwagon because I have to ask why? I get predicting a marginal increase in North America allthough I'm not predicting that but internationally it is 80% guaranteed to make less than The Last Jedi. 

[Valonqar]

5 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

I just don't understand how anybody can predict this movie increasing overseas. Are certain territories going to suddenly start jumping on this bandwagon because I have to ask why? I get predicting a marginal increase in North America allthough I'm not predicting that but internationally it is 80% guaranteed to make less than The Last Jedi. 

Stanning blinds people to reality. They see JJ as a savior just because TFA made 2 billion off nostalgia which won't work again. 

 

Also, because EG increased due to last movie factor they hope similar will happen with TROS. 

[mikee11]

JJ had the best chance to turn Star Wars into marvel status, which is mass appeal in all markets. And all of the markets gave it a chance, the marketing push by Disney was huge. But it didn't stick, probably because he just made an okish movie that doesn't work as well without the nostalgia factor missing from these markets. And Lucasfilm doubled down on that tactic with Rogue One and the chance just kept getting smaller and smaller, to where i think It's impossible for the SW brand to take off there now. It's not like DC universe when they can just reboot with another actor and different take on the character. It's one continuous thing. And it seems to be done.

 

I would put money whatever George planned to do would have more appeal in China/India/Latin America because it wouldn't be a remake of  a 40 year old movie and trying to imitate its aesthetics.

 

[Darth Lehnsherr]

10 hours ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

I just don't understand how anybody can predict this movie increasing overseas. Are certain territories going to suddenly start jumping on this bandwagon because I have to ask why? I get predicting a marginal increase in North America allthough I'm not predicting that but internationally it is 80% guaranteed to make less than The Last Jedi. 

I think people are banking on the traditional markets having big increases while thinking there's not much room for the franchise to go downwards in Asia and Latin America. I don't necessarily agree but I understand the rationale.