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Jamiem

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 558m OS 1.073B WW

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9 minutes ago, Purple Minion said:

In USD? Probably a couple in Latin America, with abysmal ER.

Less than Solo is almost impossible (He's talking about the 5 recent SW movies, right? EP7, 8 and 9,  and Rogue One and Solo).

Edited by Marcos12
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3 minutes ago, swsaga said:

Less than Solo? You mean less than $179,157,295 OS? Are you crazy? 

I think they mean just in certain Latin America markets that have a terrible ER right now, not the total international gross. 

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1 minute ago, VenomXXR said:

$750m -- $850m OS

Yes, join me on the making more than TLJ OS dark side, good GOOD.

 

A lot of people disagree but I still think the finale factor and good will of JJ from TFA could bump this.

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2 minutes ago, Jamiem said:

Yes, join me on the making more than TLJ OS dark side, good GOOD.

 

A lot of people disagree but I still think the finale factor and good will of JJ from TFA could bump this.

I expect OS to be 10-15% higher than domestic. I agree that the finale factor and the fact that JJ will make a less cerebral, more crowd friendly film will help a lot to draw in repeat and casual viewers. 

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6 hours ago, Purple Minion said:

No, it can happen, sadly for political and exchange rate reasons 😑

Chile? Elsewhere I don't see how this could happen, Solo was too small across Latin America.

 

 

Edited by Marcos12
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11 hours ago, Marcos12 said:

Elsewhere I don't see how this could happen, Solo was too small across Latin America

In Argentina, ER has collapsed 200% since Solo. If TROS is not well received, the potentially higher local gross may not compensate.

Venezuela is always a gamble.

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1 minute ago, Purple Minion said:

In Argentina, ER has collapsed 200% since Solo. If TROS is not well received, the potentially higher local gross may not compensate.

Venezuela is always a gamble.

Off-topic, but this is really bad news for Minions 2 next year which had huge Latin America performance. 

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Copied me from me from the NZ thread:

 

So you guys may have noticed that no films have had the big theatres for their shows for the last couple of movies, well I just found out why. They have added VMAX (a baby version of IMAX) with recliner seats and daybeds and it seems like they are launching it with The Rise of Skywalker. So that’s 2 additional midnight screenings and a total of 10 additional opening day. 

 

Ticket prices are $23 for regular seat, 27.50 for recliner and $30 for single daybed and $60 for double, this should help the average ticket price here in Albany and has added a bunch of seats of the opening day and weekend. 

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Albany Event Cinemas (New Zealand) -Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker  opening day (Thur 19/12/2019)Just under a week before release vs 3 days/12 hours to release of other films. 

 

0:01am  154/216

0:01am 145/216

0:01am 147/216

0:01am VMAX 9/185

0:01am VMAX 9/133

0:01am GC 40/40

0:01am GC 30/30

9:00am 21/216

9:50am VMAX 4/133

10:20am 15/216

10:30am GC 24/30 

11:00am 15/216

11:20am GC 23/40 

11:20am VMAX 4/185

12:20pm 15/216

1:00pm VMAX 4/133

1:40pm 21/216

1:50pm GC 19/30

2:20pm 3D 22/216

2:30pm VMAX 4/185

2:40pm GC 3D 24/40 

3:40pm 16/216

4:15pm VMAX 4/133

5:00pm 40/216

5:10pm GC 30/30

5:50pm VMAX 4/185

7:00pm 127/216

7:30pm VMAX 4/133

8:20pm 96/216

8:30pm GC 29/30

9:00pm VMAX 4/185

9.20pm 18/216

9.20pm GC 39/40 

10.20pm 11/216

 

Total  1171/5140 (22.78%) 

 

VMAX sessions added a bunch of seats so percentage cake down but I expect them to fill up quite quickly once word gets out that they exist. I fully expect this to outsell TLK before its release now although I highly doubt the film will be as walk up friendly throughout the weekend. 

 

All else I can say is this is going to be a monster here in Albany. 

 

Comps

 

TLK 

 

Compared 3 days before 926/5338 (17.34%) = $6.46m

Compared 12 hours before 1831/5554(32.96%) = $3.27m

 

Frozen II

 

3 Days Before 398/2230 (17.85%) = $4.68m

12 Hours Before 670/2572 (26.05%) =$2.78m

Edited by Jamiem
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Hi everyone, Star Wars IX opens next weekend in all the markets around the world except Vietnam and Philippines (very poor markets for a Star Wars movies), how much this new Star Wars movie would make for global and domestic opening weekend ? Could it the global opening week end of Star Wars VIII ($450M) and the domestic opening weekend of the previous Star Wars ($220M) ? Will Star Wars 9 make more than Star Wars 8 global opening weekend and around $500M or will it make less than $400M. I let you make your predictions ...

 

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3 hours ago, homura836 said:

I saw somewhere on the internet that a SW fans pessimistically predict TROS could only bring about $700M worldwide.

 

I couldn't believe it. 

 

2 hours ago, Marcos12 said:

Much More likely a $700m Dom alone than $700m WW...

What marcos says is true. However $700m DOM isn't likely eiter. I would say $700m WW = 0.1% chance (in other words it's not going to happen) and maybe 25% for $700m DOM?

 

A WW total around The last Jedi is were I see it heading.

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On 12/13/2019 at 6:58 PM, pepsa said:

 

What marcos says is true. However $700m DOM isn't likely eiter. I would say $700m WW = 0.1% chance (in other words it's not going to happen) and maybe 25% for $700m DOM?

 

A WW total around The last Jedi is were I see it heading.

That sounds like a likely target. I could see it ranging from 1.2 to 1.4b right now.

 

For some reason I can't really find a way for this to make 700m domestically though. TLJ made about 100m after the holidays. Lets say this has slightly better legs than that and it makes 120m instead. This means it would need to make about 580m in its first 17 days, some of which are already outside the holidays. That seems like a very tough mark to reach.

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