Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 558m OS 1.073B WW

[Jamiem]

Still very strong here at my theatre in NZ

 

Albany Event Cinemas (New Zealand) -Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker opening day (Thur 19/12/2019)3 days before release

 

0:01am  163/216

0:01am 160/216

0:01am 155/216

0:01am VMAX 70/185

0:01am VMAX 55/133

0:01am GC 40/40

0:01am GC 30/30

9:00am 30/216

9:50am VMAX 28/133

10:20am 17/216

10:30am GC 25/30 

11:00am 15/216

11:20am GC 26/40 

11:20am VMAX 9/185

12:20pm 15/216

1:00pm VMAX 4/133

1:40pm 27/216

1:50pm GC 24/30

2:20pm 3D 22/216

2:30pm VMAX 4/185

2:40pm GC 3D 26/40 

3:40pm 31/216

4:15pm VMAX 13/133

5:00pm 55/216

5:10pm GC 30/30

5:50pm VMAX 23/185

7:00pm 151/216

7:30pm VMAX 61/133

8:20pm 123/216

8:30pm GC 29/30

9:00pm VMAX 26/185

9.20pm 25/216

9.20pm GC 40/40 

10.20pm 11/216

 

Total  1563/5140 (30.41%) 

 

VMAX has allowed for a nice boost to ticket sales particularly for Midnights and late night sessions. I don’t think either of the 3 day comps are particularly great but still the best I have, I’m almost certain TROS will be more presale heavy than TLK and F2. That being said still looking incredibly strong and I’d say around $4m opening weekend, which is about what TLJ opened to, looks about right at the moment. 

 

Comps

 

TLK 

 

At the same point 926/5338 (17.34%) = $8.63m 

 

Frozen II

 

At the same point 398/2230 (17.85%) = $6.24m

[Bart Allen]

Does anyone have the numbers on Rise of Skywalker outperforming Ip Man 4 in the advanced tickets sales within China? 

[TigerPaw]

8 minutes ago, Bart Allen said:

Does anyone have the numbers on Rise of Skywalker outperforming Ip Man 4 in the advanced tickets sales within China? 

they are not actually competing, China is so cold now that the overall box office is pretty dim; and if a film can light up the box office then every film wins. Why must you assume it is a zero sum game?

 

but if we want to do it your way:

 

IpMan4 is not a presales heavy movie; it’s a walk-up heavy movie.

 

And also both of them have different release dates, SW is opening on Thurs, with sneak previews on Wed. IpMan4 is on Fri.

 

So far Fri Presales, IpMan4 is 3x of SW. (again, SW is not opening on Fri)

 

i think SW should be more concerned about the immediate threat which is The Sheep without the Shepherd which has opened this week has strong WoM and could kill SW’s momentum even on its Wednesday’s sneak previews.

Edited December 15, 2019 by TigerPaw

[Jabba'sMoofmilker]

any word on how it's doing in Japan?

[Bart Allen]

17 hours ago, TigerPaw said:

they are not actually competing, China is so cold now that the overall box office is pretty dim; and if a film can light up the box office then every film wins. Why must you assume it is a zero sum game?

 

but if we want to do it your way:

 

IpMan4 is not a presales heavy movie; it’s a walk-up heavy movie.

 

And also both of them have different release dates, SW is opening on Thurs, with sneak previews on Wed. IpMan4 is on Fri.

 

So far Fri Presales, IpMan4 is 3x of SW. (again, SW is not opening on Fri)

 

i think SW should be more concerned about the immediate threat which is The Sheep without the Shepherd which has opened this week has strong WoM and could kill SW’s momentum even on its Wednesday’s sneak previews.

Amazing post!

 

But where did you get the numbers for it being 3x of Rise of Skywalker?

 

Also, are there any projections on how much it'll make in China at the weekend? Or for its entire run?

[pepsa]

15 minutes ago, Bart Allen said:

Amazing post!

 

But where did you get the numbers for it being 3x of Rise of Skywalker?

 

Also, are there any projections on how much it'll make in China at the weekend? Or for its entire run?

You can find the numbers on https://piaofang.maoyan.com/dashboard

You can change dates there acordingly.  And like tigerpaw said it's friday is not the OD for TROS so it's not a aple to aple comparison.

Disney moved TROS to thursday with wednesday previews after 7pm (nation wide) at the last minute so it makes projections really hard because it's all over the place at the moment.

 

[Bart Allen]

9 hours ago, pepsa said:

You can find the numbers on https://piaofang.maoyan.com/dashboard

You can change dates there acordingly.  And like tigerpaw said it's friday is not the OD for TROS so it's not a aple to aple comparison.

Disney moved TROS to thursday with wednesday previews after 7pm (nation wide) at the last minute so it makes projections really hard because it's all over the place at the moment.

 

Thanks a lot!

 

I'll check it out after I've figured it out, but what are the numbers looking for with TROS in comparison to its competition? ~

[Moses]

700 millions domestic

800 millions os

1.5 billion ww

[Bart Allen]

2 hours ago, Moses said:

700 millions domestic

800 millions os

1.5 billion ww

We'll see - because presently the reviews seem to ranging from positive to mixed/negative ~

Edited December 17, 2019 by Bart Allen

[Jabba'sMoofmilker]

800 OS seems unrealistic no?

TLJ barely did 720 with China

[pepsa]

20 minutes ago, Jabba'sMoofmilker said:

800 OS seems unrealistic no?

TLJ barely did 720 with China

It's hard to tell, china will probably go down around $10m but we don't know how big the final effect will be in the EU markets. The good thing is in Asia it was already very low so it can't go down that much. That makes it easier for other markets to make more than up for it. That said $800m does seem hard, but never say never.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, pepsa said:

good thing is in Asia it was already very low so it can't go down that much.

Is that a challenge. 

[charlie Jatinder]

India its clashing with local biggie and Jumanji 2nd week will be big enough competition for it.

 

That said, Star Wars niche shall show up. Expecting ₹10cr or $1.5mn as compared to $2.5mn of TLJ.

[Carlangonz]

5 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

Is that a challenge. 

I remember when they said Infinity War was already at its peak in Asia and Latam so Endgame couldn't grow much. This is the same situation but with lowers instead of ceilings. 

[pepsa]

5 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

Is that a challenge. 

Well it can't get $200m lower astleast

[Cooper Legion]

3 minutes ago, pepsa said:

Well it can't get $200m lower astleast

>Disney realizes that the most important thing for SW in Asia is getting more people to give it another chance, not short-term profit

>offers to pay people to see TROS

> $-24M USD Asia gross

[Jamiem]

Doing this slightly early as I have a flight to catch.

 

Albany Event Cinemas (New Zealand) -Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker opening day (Thur 19/12/2019)12 hours before release

 

0:01am  178/216

0:01am 175/216

0:01am 167/216

0:01am 28/162

0:01am 20/160

0:01am 23/144

0:01am VMAX 115/185

0:01am VMAX 94/133

0:01am GC 40/40

0:01am GC 30/30

9:00am 36/216

9:50am VMAX 28/133

10:20am 19/216

10:30am GC 25/30 

11:00am 18/216

11:20am GC 30/40 

11:20am VMAX 17/185

12:20pm 18/216

1:00pm VMAX 16/133

1:40pm 40/216

1:50pm GC 24/30

2:20pm 3D 22/216

2:30pm VMAX 14/185

2:40pm GC 3D 28/40 

3:40pm 37/216

4:15pm VMAX 13/133

5:00pm 78/216

5:10pm GC 30/30

5:50pm VMAX 57/185

7:00pm 165/216

7:30pm VMAX 92/133

8:20pm 150/216

8:30pm GC 29/30

9:00pm VMAX 53/185

9.20pm 40/216

9.20pm GC 40/40 

10.20pm 13/216

 

Total  2002/5606 (35.71%) 

 

Over 2000 tickets sold for opening day is incredible. A few more showings added for midnights means it is showing on every screen at midnight now, also means it has more tickets available opening day than TLK, although that film didn’t have midnight showings. Comps say it will go higher but I’m still feeling a little over or under $4m as this is likely more presale heavy than most other films. 

 

Comps

 

TLK 

 

At the same point 1831/5554(32.96%) = $5.59m 

 

Frozen II

 

At the same point 670/2572 (26.05%) = $4.75m

 

now time for me to catch a flight, go home and have a nap and then go to see Star Wars at midnight! So if i don’t reply forgive me. 

[salvador-232]

Chilean pre-sales looks meh to bad but I wouldn't take them as indication of anything given the context (revolution and what not). That's why I didn't bother tracking them. 

[Taruseth]

Really looking forward to its performance in Germany:

 

Spoiler

2 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

Star Wars - Episode IX: The Rise of Skywalker

Spoiler

CineStar Bremen

Wednesday:

3D 14:00: 22 / 322

3D 16:00: 131 / 572

3D 17:00: 43 / 425

3D 18:00: 56 / 322

3D 20:00: 307 / 425

3D 20:30: 148 / 572

 

2D 15:00: 30 / 425

2D 19:00: 185 / 425

Total: 922 / 3488 -> 26.4%

 

Thursday:

3D 14:00: 0 / 322

3D 16:00: 45 / 572

3D 17:00: 11 / 425

3D 18:00: 20 / 322

3D 20:00: 230 / 425

3D 20:30: 55 / 572

3D 21:30: 4 / 322

3D 22:30: 4 / 296

 

2D 15:00: 8 / 425

2D 19:00: 140 / 425

2D 22:50: 5 / 425

Total: 522 / 4531 -> 11.52%

 

Friday:

3D OV 20:30: 68 / 279

 

3D 14:00: 1 / 322

3D 16:00: 69 / 572

3D 17:00: 3 / 425

3D 18:00: 16 / 322

3D 20:00: 267 / 425

3D 20:30: 69 / 572

3D 21:30: 8 / 322

3D 22:30: 8 / 296

 

2D 15:00: 11 / 425

2D 19:00: 176 / 425

2D 22:50: 5 / 425

Total: 701 / 4810 -> 14.57%

 

 

Saturday:

3D 12:15: 44 / 572

3D 13:15: 4 / 425

3D 14:00: 6 / 322

3D 16:00: 131 / 572

3D 17:00: 10 / 425

3D 18:00: 18 / 322

3D 20:00: 228 / 425

3D 20:30: 49 / 572

3D 21:30: 5 / 322

3D 22:30: 3 / 296

 

2D 11:20: 2 / 425

2D 15:00: 28 / 425

2D 19:00: 195 / 425

2D 22:50: 4 / 425

Total: 727 / 5953 -> 12.21%

 

 

Sunday:

3D OV 20:30: 22 / 279

 

3D 12:15: 34 / 572

3D 13:15: 3 / 425

3D 14:00: 16 / 322

3D 16:00: 119 / 572

3D 17:00: 7 / 425

3D 18:00: 9 / 322

3D 20:00: 154 / 425

3D 20:30: 29 / 572

3D 21:30: 5 / 322

3D 22:30: 1 / 296

 

2D 11:20: 2 / 425

2D 15:00: 94 / 425

2D 19:00: 108 / 425

2D 22:50: 3 / 425

Total: 606 / 6232 -> 9.72%

 

TFSS: 2556 / 21526

WTFSS: 3479 / 25014

 

 

 

CinemaxX Bremen

Wednesday:

3D 10:00: 58 / 232

3D 15:00: 19 / 297

3D 16:00: 139 / 342

3D 17:00: 71 / 186

3D 20:00: 252 / 342

3D 20:50: 67 / 186

3D 22:30: 17 / 297

 

OV 3D 19:30: 135 / 186

OV 3D 23:00: 45 / 186

 

2D 10:30: 14 / 186

2D 14:00: 12 / 186

2D 17:30: 94 / 186

2D 19:00: 208 / 297

2D 20:30: 92 / 163

2D 22:45: 20 / 145

 

OV 2D 19:30: 13 / 186

 

Total: 1243 / 3417 -> 36.38%

 

Thursday:

3D 14:15: 0 / 145

3D 16:00: 90 / 342

3D 17:00: 4 / 186

3D 20:00: 193 / 342

3D 20:30: 6 / 186

3D 22:30: 2 / 297

 

OV 3D 19:30: 136 / 186

OV 3D 23:00: 2 / 186

 

2D 15:00: 4 / 186

2D 17:30: 16 / 186

2D 19:00: 209 / 297

2D 22:00: 0 / 145

 

OV 2D 21:00: 15 / 186

 

Total: 677 / 2870 -> 23.59%

 

Friday:

3D 14:15: 4 / 145

3D 16:00: 117 / 342

3D 17:00: 15 / 186

3D 20:00: 224 / 342

3D 20:30: 26 / 186

3D 22:30: 2 / 297

 

OV 3D 19:30: 131 / 186

OV 3D 23:00: 0 / 186

 

2D 15:00: 6 / 186

2D 17:30: 15 / 186

2D 19:00: 196 / 297

2D 22:00: 18 / 145

 

OV 2D 21:00: 7 / 186

 

Total: 761 / 2870 -> 26.52%

 

Saturday:

3D 11:30: 0 / 297

3D 14:30: 0 / 145

3D 16:00: 127 / 342

3D 17:00: 15 / 186

3D 20:00: 165 / 342

3D 20:50: 22 / 186

3D 22:30: 35 / 297

 

OV 3D 19:30: 90 / 186

OV 3D 23:00: 1 / 186

 

2D 12:30: 0 / 342

2D 15:00: 20 / 297

2D 17:30: 17 / 186

2D 19:00: 194 / 297

2D 22:45: 0 / 145

 

OV 2D 16:20: 3 / 178

OV 2D 19:30: 8 / 186

 

Total: 697 / 3798 -> 18.35%

 

Sunday:

3D 11:30: 4 / 297

3D 14:30: 7 / 145

3D 16:00: 133 / 342

3D 17:00: 9 / 186

3D 20:00: 158 / 342

3D 20:50: 5 / 186

3D 22:30: 0 / 297

 

OV 3D 19:30: 104 / 186

OV 3D 23:00: 0 / 186

 

2D 12:30: 8 / 342

2D 15:00: 16 / 297

2D 17:30: 9 / 186

2D 19:00: 136 / 297

2D 20:30: 27 / 186

2D 22:45: 0 / 145

 

OV 2D 21:15: 7 / 186

 

Total: 623 / 3806 -> 16.37%

 

TFSS: 2758 / 13344

WTFSS: 4001 / 16761

 

 

Cinestar Metropolis Frankfurt

Wednesday:

3D OV 12:30: 72 / 642

3D OV 14:00: 77 / 273

3D OV 16:30: 189 / 642

3D OV 17:30: 86 / 273

3D OV 18:30: 139 / 283

3D OV 20:30: 512 / 642

3D OV 21:15: 178 / 273

3D OV 22:15: 104 / 283

 

3D 12:00: 14 / 624

3D 14:15: 44 / 351

3D 16:00: 100 / 624

3D 17:00: 46 / 195

3D 18:00: 161 / 351

3D 20:00: 463 / 624

3D 21:30: 145 / 351

3D 22:30: 62 / 344

 

2D 10:30: 36 / 344

2D 15:30: 55 / 344

2D 19:30: 209 / 344

2D 19:30: 29 / 182

 

2D OV 11:00: 60 / 202

2D OV 15:00: 59 / 202

2D OV 19:00: 163 / 202

2D OV 23:00: 34 / 195

 

Total: 3037 / 8790 -> 34.55%

 

Thursday:

3D OV 14:00: 22 / 273

3D OV 16:30: 126 / 642

3D OV 17:30: 3 / 273

3D OV 18:30: 19 / 283

3D OV 20:30: 459 / 642

3D OV 21:15: 14 / 273

3D OV 22:15: 102 / 283

 

3D 14:15: 24 / 351

3D 16:00: 134 / 624

3D 17:00: 6 / 195

3D 17:45: 12 / 351

3D 20:00: 414 / 624

3D 21:30: 20 / 351

3D 22:30: 39 / 344

 

2D 15:00: 11 / 344

2D 19:00: 199 / 344

2D 23:00: 3 / 182

 

2D OV 15:30: 6 / 202

2D OV 19:30: 144 / 202

2D OV 23:15: 2 / 195

 

Total: 1759 / 6978 -> 25.21%

 

Friday:

3D OV 14:00: 34 / 273

3D OV 16:30: 120 / 642

3D OV 17:30: 2 / 273

3D OV 18:30: 6 / 283

3D OV 20:30: 349 / 642

3D OV 21:15: 22 / 273

3D OV 22:15: 52 / 283

 

3D 14:15: 107 / 351

3D 16:00: 176 / 624

3D 17:00: 3 / 195

3D 17:45: 15 / 351

3D 20:00: 380 / 624

3D 21:30: 29 / 351

3D 22:30: 31 / 344

 

2D 15:00: 25 / 344

2D 19:00: 216 / 344

2D 23:00: 2 / 182

 

2D OV 15:30: 6 / 202

2D OV 19:30: 135 / 202

2D OV 23:15: 6 / 195

 

Total: 1716 / 6978 -> 24.595

 

Saturday:

3D OV 12:30: 0 / 642

3D OV 14:00: 75 / 273

3D OV 16:30: 180 / 642

3D OV 17:30: 0 / 273

3D OV 18:30: 18 / 283

3D OV 20:30: 223 / 642

3D OV 21:15: 9 / 273

3D OV 22:15: 20 / 283

 

3D 12:00: 7 / 624

3D 14:15: 49 / 351

3D 16:00: 202 / 624

3D 17:00: 4 / 195

3D 17:45: 9 / 351

3D 20:00: 285 / 624

3D 21:30: 7 / 351

3D 22:30: 25 / 344

 

2D 10:30: 2 / 344

2D 15:30: 11 / 344

2D 19:30: 139 / 344

2D 23:00: 0 / 182

 

2D OV 11:00: 10 / 202

2D OV 15:30: 18 / 202

2D OV 19:30: 84 / 202

2D OV 23:15: 4 / 195

 

Total: 1381 / 8790 -> 15.71%

 

Sunday:

3D OV 12:30: 8 / 642

3D OV 14:00: 68 / 273

3D OV 16:30: 132 / 642

3D OV 17:30: 2 / 273

3D OV 18:30: 0 / 283

3D OV 20:30: 153 / 642

3D OV 21:15: 2 / 273

3D OV 22:15: 2 / 283

 

3D 12:00: 19 / 624

3D 14:15: 64 / 351

3D 16:00: 235 / 624

3D 17:00: 3 / 195

3D 17:45: 9 / 351

3D 20:00: 137 / 624

3D 21:30: 2 / 351

3D 22:30: 10 / 344

 

2D 10:30: 3 / 344

2D 15:30: 5 / 344

2D 19:30: 81 / 344

2D 23:00: 0 / 182

 

2D OV 11:00: 1 / 202

2D OV 15:30: 5 / 202

2D OV 19:30: 95 / 202

2D OV 23:15: 0 / 195

 

Total: 1036 / 8790 -> 11.79%

 

TFSS: 5892 / 31536

WTFSS: 8965 / 40326

Total:

(T-0)

 

W: 1243 + 922 + 3073 = 5238 / 15695

Th: 677 + 522 + 1759 = 2958 / 14379

Fri: 761 + 701 + 1716 = 3178 / 14658

Sat: 697 + 727 + 1381 = 2805 / 18541

Sun: 623 + 606 + 1036 = 2265 / 18828

TFSS: 2758 + 2556 + 5892 = 11206 / 66406 -> 16.87%

WTFSS: 4001 + 3478 + 8965 = 16444 / 82101 -> 20.03%

 

In the following the italic ones are kinda useless (absolutely useless)

5-day comps (also taken on Tuesday evening):

TLK:

W: 2343 => 469k (only Wednesday)

TFSS: 1842 => 5608k (TFSS)

WTFSS: 4185 => 4445k (WTFSS)

 

Adjusted (only CS Bremen):

Endgame:

W w. P.: 1150 => 370k*

W: 585 => 728k

TFSS: 1848 => 2312k

WTFSS: 2998 => 2475k

 

All the following comps where are final ones(so Wednesday evening – 24 hours later than EP IX numbers)

Wend (wo Previews – only TFSS)

Aladdin: 493 => 6560k

John Wick 3: 967 => 3305k

Godzilla: 328 => 4797k

Rocketman: 175 => 7618k

Dark Phoenix: 333 => 4174k

MIBI: 221 => 5713k

Five Feet Apart: 85 => 13932k

Spider-Man FFH: 2058 => 2363k

TLK: 2755 => 3749k

H&S: 1058 => 5209k

Hollywood: 1774 => 2773k 

TS 4: 388 => 6883k

 

Adjusted comps – without CS Bremen:

TFSS: 8650

WTFSS: 12966

 

Comps:

It 2: 1880 => 2715k (TFSS)

Joker: 4819 => 1510k (TFSS)

Joker w. P: 7040 => 1732k (WTFSS)

 

 

Puh, what can I say?

It doesn’t have Preview screenings, Endgame had really big ones.

Presales would be out of this world insane for every other movie, but for SW they are okay, I guess.

Right now, I’d hope for a 5-day opening above Endgame, but thinking it will open below and and probably just around Frozen II.

And thinking that the 4-day might be below both.

 

So maybe something like this:

OD: 375k

TFSS: 1250k

WTFSS: 1625k

 

(obviously hoping for something like this):

OD: 400k

TFSS: 1750k

WTFSS: 2150k

 

 

 

 

 

[LPLC]

Could SW9 surpass domestic OW ($220M) and global OW ($450M) of SW8 ? What are your expectations for this new Star Wars ?