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Jamiem

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 558m OS 1.073B WW

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24 minutes ago, Aristis said:

You're really obsessed with 2nd WE hold :ph34r:

 

I don't think it will be too bad actually - christmas eve on Tuesday seems like good position for BO.

 

Second weeks fetishists, we see everything these days xD

 

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20 hours ago, Fullbuster said:

 

Second weeks fetishists, we see everything these days xD

 

Omg haha NOOO :3

Edited by Bart Allen
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1 hour ago, Bart Allen said:

Well it's the most important hold as you'll be able to tell so much - plus it removes a great majority of the pre-booked tickets out of the equation.

 

But OOOOOOO ~

1 hour ago, Fullbuster said:

 

Second weeks fetishists, we see everything these days xD

 

 

Yeah, it's an important drop but I think you've written it like 5 times today alone so maybe Fullbuster isn't too far off :ph34r:

 

To me it seems you are expecting a really big drop as the WOM is bad. But the 2nd WE will probably be inflated by holidays and therefore the drop won't be as telling as that (if SW9 drops big regardless it'll tell much though).

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So before the weekend numbers flow in a quick and usefull run through:

 

ER differences with TLJ (I will take the average of the first 3 weeks it played).

ER TLJ       /     ER TROS

 

Pound: 1.35 / 1.30 so it lost 3.7% in value (TLJ amount in pound would no be $4.1m less in USD)

 

Euro: 1.19 / 1.11  this is a loss of 6.7% (It loses about $16.5m USD here)

 

AUD:  0.77  /  0.69 a loss of about 10.4%  (another loss of $4.7m USD)

 

Yen: 0.0089  / 0.0091 nice an increase of 2.2%  (it gains $1.5 USD)

 

Rouble: 0.017 / 0.016 = 5.9% drop   (minus $0.9m USD)

 

Real:  0.3 / 0.25 = 16.7% drop (minus $3.2m USD)

 

Swedisch kroon: 0.12 / 0.11 so 8.3% drop ($1.35m USD loss)

 

Yuan: 0.15 / 0.14 a drop of 6.7% ($2.8m USD loss)

Useing todays ER's lower the OS total about 29.25m USD (150m in market not accounted for so take it with a pinch of salt)

These are the ER's of all the markets over $15m USD. For markets like Brazil and Russia inflation will make up these diff if it's sells the same.

Also still a lot can happen so with small % it won't mater that much.

 

 

In good news NZ's OD seems to be on par with TLJ's and the OD in Australia is only down 10%.

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1 hour ago, pepsa said:

In good news NZ's OD seems to be on par with TLJ's and the OD in Australia is only down 10%.

I feel finale will lead to lower IMs/OWs, but that seems some relatively good news considering market similarity to DOM/UK. Unless there is some kind of release schedule diff that confounds the comparison.

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32 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

I feel finale will lead to lower IMs/OWs, but that seems some relatively good news considering market similarity to DOM/UK. Unless there is some kind of release schedule diff that confounds the comparison.

Closer to Christmas so weekdays will be stronger compared to TLJ

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SW9 OD in Japan noon update:

SW9 will debut at #1 will little trouble, but I'm not seeing any ticket sales right now to suggest it'll beat the opening weekends of the previous two films (it's slightly ahead of The Last Jedi at the moment), at least by much. It could end up matching/beating them though, more or less, since all the prequels and current sequels have comparable opening weekends (when you compare the 3-day totals), clearly indicating a dedicated core fanbase. It's the holds after the opening that go on to differ a good bit.

 

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9 hours ago, Aristis said:

 

Yeah, it's an important drop but I think you've written it like 5 times today alone so maybe Fullbuster isn't too far off :ph34r:

 

To me it seems you are expecting a really big drop as the WOM is bad. But the 2nd WE will probably be inflated by holidays and therefore the drop won't be as telling as that (if SW9 drops big regardless it'll tell much though).

Exactly!

 

But I am expecting a really big drop at some point, and it has been spearheaded by the fact Deadline decreased its projections to $160-190m ~

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On 12/15/2019 at 4:26 PM, TigerPaw said:

they are not actually competing, China is so cold now that the overall box office is pretty dim; and if a film can light up the box office then every film wins. Why must you assume it is a zero sum game?

 

but if we want to do it your way:

 

IpMan4 is not a presales heavy movie; it’s a walk-up heavy movie.

 

And also both of them have different release dates, SW is opening on Thurs, with sneak previews on Wed. IpMan4 is on Fri.

 

So far Fri Presales, IpMan4 is 3x of SW. (again, SW is not opening on Fri)

 

i think SW should be more concerned about the immediate threat which is The Sheep without the Shepherd which has opened this week has strong WoM and could kill SW’s momentum even on its Wednesday’s sneak previews.

 

On 12/17/2019 at 1:14 PM, pepsa said:

It's hard to tell, china will probably go down around $10m but we don't know how big the final effect will be in the EU markets. The good thing is in Asia it was already very low so it can't go down that much. That makes it easier for other markets to make more than up for it. That said $800m does seem hard, but never say never.

 

On 12/18/2019 at 12:56 AM, salvador-232 said:

Chilean pre-sales looks meh to bad but I wouldn't take them as indication of anything given the context (revolution and what not). That's why I didn't bother tracking them. 

Bob Iger to Kennedy and Abrams: "Yousa in big doodoo this time."

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/china-box-office-star-wars-rise-skywalker-beaten-by-local-films-1264388

 

Imagine that it came in lower than the low-estimate of $23 million *facepalm*

 

Chinese box-office for The Disney Trilogy:

1. The Force Awakens makes $124 million.

2. The Last Jedi bombs with $43 million, and is removed from over 93% of theatres in its second-weekend.

3. *Disney shareholders and executives downing a bottle of Whiskey*

Edited by Bart Allen

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9 minutes ago, Bart Allen said:

 

 

Bob Iger to Kennedy and Abrams: "Yousa in big doodoo this time."

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/china-box-office-star-wars-rise-skywalker-beaten-by-local-films-1264388

 

Imagine that it came in lower than the low-estimate of $23 million *facepalm*

 

Chinese box-office for The Disney Trilogy:

1. The Force Awakens makes $124 million.

2. The Last Jedi bombs with $43 million, and is removed from over 93% of theatres in its second-weekend.

3. *Disney shareholders and executives downing a bottle of Whiskey*

Chile =\ China jaja

There are no hard numbers but Chilean OD seems good. Theather chain recommended arriving 45 minutes before the showing due to "high demand". Again, people are probably just rushing to see before Christmas (absolutely nobody goes to cinemas in Christmas here ) 

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1 minute ago, John Marston said:

How likely is the predicted 250m overseas debut?

TLJ 235 at same markets and ERs. So.... not very. Passing 400M WW debut would be good in my book.

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2 minutes ago, John Marston said:

How likely is the predicted 250m overseas debut?

What did The Last Jedi make in its overseas debut?

 

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Just now, John Marston said:

How good are these numbers?

At a first glance, they seem a bit down on TLJ (maybe 10%?). Anyone else with a more accurate comparison?

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14 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

TLJ 235 at same markets and ERs. So.... not very. Passing 400M WW debut would be good in my book.

TLJ didn't open at the same time in China, so at least TROS has got that going for it 😅

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1 minute ago, NCsoft said:

TLJ didn't open at the same time in China, so at least TROS has got that going for it 😅

TROS Don’t even make 6M in 2 days on China, so it’s comparable with TLJ anyway

 

 

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