Weekend Thread: Actuals - Mal2 $19.4M | Joker $19.2M | Adam's Family 12M | Zombieland $11.8M | Countdown $8.9M | Black & Blue $8.4M

[Xftg123]

3 hours ago, narniadis said:

Always gotta love how films that hit a particular side of the social fandoms always inflate stupidity on this board..... hasnt changed from the Mojo days, but seems more onpoint anymore. 

 

Not sure why this board has made me so salty this year other than growing really tired of the franchise crap. 

Underestimated Predictions? At least, that's what I think.

 

Seeing how I've recently joined the Box Office Subreddit on Reddit and the BOT forum, there have been some things I've noticed, but mainly on the BO Subreddit. From looking at the old Joker estimates/predictions on r/boxoffice, people were predicting Joker to gross less while It Chapter 2 would end up doing more. In the end, it was the complete opposite, especially Joker, since no one predicted the movie would be that big.

 

Then there were the live action re-imaginings from Disney that came out: Lion King, Aladdin, and Dumbo. While Dumbo did do horrible, the internet vocal minority were expecting movies like The Lion King and Aladdin to flop, when both of them ended up becoming billion dollar successes. Dumbo isn't really all that popular of a Disney IP, hence why it didn't do too hot at the box office. However, movies like Aladdin and The Lion King were both successful due to both nostalgia and also being two of the most popular Disney IPs and original films, especially Lion King (it still is the highest grossing traditional animated film ever).

 

But there's also The Rise Of Skywalker, the finale to the Skywalker Saga, and people have suddenly lost interest/disinterest towards the last film after The Last Jedi's mixed reception and the box office bomb of Solo. The future (and box office) regarding the end of this saga is concerning.

[sfran43]

 

[Valonqar]

44 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Everytime people write "Mal 2", I keep thinking it's an Inception sequel.

 

 

yuck, Disney fudged Mal 2 but it's gonna lose it on weekdays and Jokah already made headlines. Nobody cares about actuals.

[a2k]

Just now, sfran43 said:

 

47 Meters Down : Uncaged opened to a similar number (8.4m) and did 22.25 dom. It's prod budget is also the same (12m). As such these movies have nothing in common but seem financially in the same boat, even marketing wise imo. 47MD2 on paper should be a better player OS but did just 8m. BB has a shot at 25m dom which for a 12m prod budget and limited marketing is respectable. Tyrese has 2 wins this year : FFHS not exploding and BB.

[xiazhi]

3 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

yuck, Disney fudged Mal 2 but it's gonna lose it on weekdays and Jokah already made headlines. Nobody cares about actuals.

no one cares about actuals when nothing changed. This will clearly make headline when Mal 2 ends up on top. Don't underestimate disney's strategy on lowballing Sunday estimates.

[Xftg123]

@Valonqar Agreed. There's no fixing the headlines at this point for the Joker movie. So it's going to stay like this for a bit.

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

[Xftg123]

1 minute ago, xiazhi said:

no one cares about actuals when nothing changed. Don't underestimate disney's strategy on lowballing Sunday estimates.

@xiazhi

Are there any examples of Disney lowballing? Maleficent 2 is one of them (since it got edged out a bit), but I can't think of any others.

 

I do agree about the actuals though, they were slightly apart, but not by a whole lot.

[Firepower]

Why there's still no actuals for Joker?

[martin]

4 minutes ago, Firepower said:

Why there's still no actuals for Joker?

19.125m

[Firepower]

1 minute ago, martin said:

19.125m

No, this is estimate, check the-numbers and BO Report twitter. Someone prematurely edited the thread.

[MrGlass2]

1 hour ago, sfran43 said:

Maleficent won!!

Quote

$66.2M total

 

[martin]

4 minutes ago, Firepower said:

No, this is estimate, check the-numbers and BO Report twitter. Someone prematurely edited the thread.

I believe gitesh pandya tweet actual joker a couple hours ago...

19.13

Edited October 28, 2019 by martin

[Firepower]

Just now, martin said:

I believe gitesh pandya tweet actual joker a couple hours ago...

He reported new estimate. Actuals would have been reported by others and updated by the-numbers.

[JB33]

Wow, that number for Joker! I had Maleficent and J pegged for $16.6M and $16.5M respectively!

 

Move over Disney. I'm the lowball master now!

[MaxAggressor]

 

[cdsacken]

Jesus monster number for Joker. Kinda shocked Mal 2 held up ok 

Edited October 28, 2019 by cdsacken

[JB33]

4 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Jesus monster number for Joker. Kinds shocked Mal 2 held up ok 

My thoughts exactly. Knock on wood here, but I guess this weekend's openers were just that dire (as they usually are).

[Legion Again]

So we've currently got 6 movies in the 100-115 zone:  
Dumbo 114.766

Glass 111.035

KOTM 110.5

The Upside 108.252

LM2 105.806  

Hustlers ~107 finish

 

Of released movies, optimistically we could add 3:
Maleficent 2

TAF

Downton

 

Then upcoming releases the following might be able to end up there:  

Terminator: Dark Fate (I think this misses low)  

Doctor Sleep (think it misses low)

Ford vs Ferrari 

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 

Knives Out

Cats (think it misses low)  

 

 

So overall I think we'll get about 12 movies in that just barely over 100 range. Pretty unusual, but none of them are a fudgejob (except Downton, if it makes it).