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Xillix

Well Actually... Y6 ACTUALS

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The latest pointless Terminator sequel may not be out for a few more days, but regardless, Judgment Day has come.

 

I'll be doing month-by-month previews to cover tracking, pros and cons of each film, et cetera, before each month actually goes live. I'll also be doing write-ups for each weekend because I love that shit and it's always sounded fun. For convenience's sake. I'll also link to the post for each month's numbers up here in the first post once they're up.

 

Also - we've had reviews from 10 people. So that means, as discussed in the predictions thread, if a movie has 10 OW predictions from y'all, that's the break-even point where my numbers and yours both have 50% influence.

 

January is tonight.

Edited by Xillix
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MONTHLY PREVIEW - JANUARY

 

Though the distribution of major blockbusters has certainly become more spread out over the years, January remains a traditional dead zone - a dump month that offers a relatively barren landscape to potential cinema-goers. January Y6 looks to be no different, with a slew of relatively low-profile releases and just a couple of potential standouts.

 

January 7 - Broadway Selects: The Band's Visit - 2,369 theaters

The sole new release on the first weekend of the year is another in Blankments Productions' series of filmed Broadway plays, which, based on the performance of prior releases, has no realistic chance of dethroning The Scavenger Wars Part II atop the weekend box office.

 

PROS:
+The Broadway Selects series has been a pretty consistent performer, pulling in audiences who may not frequent the movies and drawing mid-to-high single digit openings that are perfectly respectable given the dirt-cheap production costs.

+The only competition it has will be holdovers from Y5.

 

CONS:
-Those holdovers include monster hit The Scavenger Wars Part II, though the amount of audience crossover is certainly debatable.

-The Band's Visit doesn't have the widespread, instant marquee value of some previous releases like Hello, Dolly or SpongeBob.

 

TRACKING: $6.2 - $6.5 million 3-day

 

 

January 14 - All Kinds of Bull - 2,900 theaters

Making a play for animal lovers is this drama from Hunt Productions.

 

PROS:
+There is always at least some kind of audience for these weepy animal flicks.

+Brad Pitt is a much bigger star than is usually associated with these sorts of vehicles, especially in January.

 

CONS:
-Reviews leave something to be desired with a 46 on Metacritic.

-It's been demonstrated before that Pitt can't save a poor project on his own - see Killing Them Softly.

-The R rating will likely keep away a good chunk of the family audience that tends to turn up for hit animal movies.

 

TRACKING: $11.5-13 million 3-day

 

January 14 - Espionage Project - 3,854 theaters (including IMAX)
The first of two potentially major releases this month is a spy thriller from Blankments Productions, which is likely to lead the weekend.

 

PROS:
+The cast includes genre heavyweights Tom Cruise and Matt Damon, plus a compelling set of supporting actors including Gerard Butler, Rami Malek, and Jeremy Renner.

+It's the first big action film of the year, and there hasn't been an action flick that wasn't also a sci-fi or fantasy adventure in months.

+Director Juame Collet-Sera has had reasonable success with thematically similar Liam Neeson thrillers Unknown and Non-Stop.

 

CONS:
-Sera's Run All Night flopped with an $11 million opening.

-Reviews are not strong with a discouraging 43 on Metacritic.

-The Scavenger Wars Part II will doubtlessly still be in wide release and could eat into the potential audience.

 

TRACKING: $34-$36 million 3-day

 

January 14 - Making Waves - 3,120 theaters

Rounding out the MLK weekend releases is this sports drama about a father and son reforging their bond through the power of surfing.

 

PROS:
+Sports dramas often have the potential to break out, as they can draw strongly devoted crowds.

+It's the first new family film of the year and could be an option for kids on break from school for the long weekend.

 

CONS:
-Surfing isn't nearly as marketable a sport at the box office as football or basketball, as evidenced by the 2012 flop Chasing Mavericks and the middling performance of 2011's Soul Surfer, which also had a faith-based element.

-Reviews are at a 43 on Metacritic, which is not encouraging when the much better-reviewed and more widely-appealing Squirrel Girl will still be playing.

 

TRACKING: $12-13 million 3-day

 

January 21 - Walking with You - 3,349 theaters

Hourglass Pictures' sci-fi romance is getting a really big head start on Valentine's Day this year.

 

PROS:
+The post-apocalyptic element of the film may draw in more male viewers who wouldn't otherwise be interested in a romance.

+Reviews are fair for this sort of movie, with a 61 on Metacritic unlikely to dissuade interested audiences.

 

CONS:
-Stars Ludi Lin and Kelly Marie Tran certainly have their fans, but they're not exactly A-listers.

-The movie could be opening too early; not only is it up against Y5 holdovers, but the romantic superhero flick The Power of Love may steal some of its thunder the following weekend.

 

TRACKING: $24-25 million 3-day

 

January 28 - The Power of Love - 3,751 theaters (Including IMAX)

The second potentially major release of the month is Endless Entertainment's superhero rom-com.

 

PROS:
+Superhero films are usually reliable tentpoles, and quirky ones can sometimes break out.

+There's a solid ensemble cast, including a few Avengers alumni.

+The romantic comedy aspect might draw in more females and older audiences, and could help it hold better through Valentine's Day.

 

CONS:
-Unlike most hit superhero movies, it's not an adaptation of an existing property with a built-in fanbase.

-It faces direct romance competition from Walking with You the week before.

-The fact it's also a rom-com could turn off some viewers who would normally be interested in a superhero blockbuster.

 

TRACKING: $38-40 million 3-day

 

 

 

ACTUALS FOR JANUARY GO LIVE AT 6:00 PM EDT!

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Tbf everybody says they're going to put a legit tentpole in January and then nobody actually does it lol

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2 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Love has a $100M+ budget.

Well, somebody had to be the guinea pig eventually :P

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53 minutes ago, cookie said:

Tbf everybody says they're going to put a legit tentpole in January and then nobody actually does it lol

Let’s be real, would The Mole 2 really had been a tentpole lol

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January 7-9

The Band Scavenges for Scraps at New Year Box Office

As expected, holiday blockbusters The Scavenger Wars Part II and The Unbeatable Squirrel Girl easily remained atop the weekend chart heading into Y6. The sole new release, Broadway Selects: The Band's Visit, came in just under tracking at $5.7 million. Blame the relatively obscure source material compared to other series releases. Still, at a half million production cost and with a limited marketing spend, Blankments Productions can't be too upset.

 

1. The Scavenger Wars Part II - $22,757,295 (-50.5%)

2. The Unbeatable Squirrel Girl - $20,097,203 (-50.3%)

3. The Three-Month Funeral - $10,019,305 (-37.9%)

4. Broadway Selects: The Band's Visit - $5,726,720

5. On the Record - $4,692,684 (-51.7%)

6. Sabrina - $3,742,763 (-43.2%)

7. O, Maestro! - $3,730,170 (-42%)

8. Pillars of Eternity: Never Far from the Queen - $3,717,631 (-48%)
9. Olive the Other Reindeer - $2,783,660 (-63.2%)
10. American Dragon: Flash Point - $1,135,608 (-53.9%)

 

 

January 14-17 (Martin Luther King Weekend)
Spies Sleuth Out #1 Slot While Surfers Ride a Wave Past the Bull on Monday

Espionage Project was perhaps just a bit too stupid for spy-thriller fans, coming in somewhat below tracking with $29.8 million for the three-day and $34.4 million on the long weekend. With a $130 million production cost this one will be looking overseas for profitability. Making Waves came in behind All Kinds of Bull over the three-day weekend, but its family appeal meant it held surprisingly well on Monday - enough to pass the poorly-received, R-rated animal drama. Neither made a big impact, though, both also coming in a bit below tracking.

 

1. Espionage Project - $29,750,033 (3-day) / $34,361,288 (4-day)
2. The Scavenger Wars Part II - $14,557,498 (-36%)
3. The Unbeatable Squirrel Girl -
$14,441,306 (-28.1%)
4. Making Waves - $7,813,337 (3-day) / $10,657,392 (4-day)
5. All Kinds of Bull - $8,512,802 (3-day) / $10,196,624 (4-day)

6. The Three-Month Funeral - $7,593,834 (-24.2%)
7. Broadway Selects: The Band's Visit - $3,556,293 (3-day) / $4,167,975 (4-day) (-37.9%)
8. On the Record - $2,991,531 (-36.3%)
9. O, Maestro! - $2,312,705 (-38%)
10. Pillars of Eternity: Never Far from the Queen - $2,243,521 (-39.7%)

 

January 21-23

Audiences Walk Through the Apocalypse

Walking with You continued this month's trend of slotting in a weekend performance just beneath where tracking had pegged it, with a $21.8 million 3-day performance. That was good enough for #1, and with a $50 million cost it's likely to turn a profit for Hourglass. None of last week's releases held especially well, perhaps not surprising given their unspectacular reception. Making Waves in particular fell harder than one might expect, likely due to the continued presence of Squirrel Girl in the marketplace.

 

1. Walking with You - $21,770,133
2. Espionage Project - $16,242,518 (-45.4%)
3. The Scavenger Wars Part II -
$9,875,851 (-32.2%)
4. The Unbeatable Squirrel Girl - $9,848,971 (-31.8%)
5. The Three Month Funeral - $5,416,336 (-28.7%)
6. All Kinds of Bull - $4,443,683 (-47.8%)
7. Making Waves - $4,359,842 (-44.2%)
8. Broadway Selects: The Band's Visit - $2,290,253 (-35.6%)
9. On the Record - $2,126,979 (-28.9%)
10. O, Maestro! - $1,596,144 (-31%)

January 28-30

Love Turns Out to Be About as Powerful as Expected

The Power of Love performed in line with expectations, notching a $38.3 million opening weekend. Also as expected, its competition dragged Walking with You down a fair bit, though it still managed to hold onto #2 in front of the flopping Espionage Project.

 

1. The Power of Love - $38,295,861
2. Walking with You - $11,385,780 (-47.7%)
3. Espionage Project - $8,332,925 (-48.7%)
4.
The Unbeatable Squirrel Girl - $7,012,467 (-28.8%)

5. The Scavenger Wars Part II - $6,643,868 (-32.7%)

6. The Three-Month Funeral - $3,316,288 (-38.8%)

7. All Kinds of Bull - $2,076,341 (-56.6%)
8. Making Waves - $1,796,255 (-58.8%)
9. On the Record - $1,486,758 (-30.1%)
10. O, Maestro! - $1,173,931 (-26.5%)

Edited by Xillix
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Jesus was O Maestro flat to the dollar from the 14th to the 21st? lol

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1 minute ago, Spaghetti said:

Jesus was O Maestro flat to the dollar from the 14th to the 21st? lol

Lol that's definitely not right. I had it at $1,596,144 for the weekend of the 21st.

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3 minutes ago, Spaghetti said:

Jesus was O Maestro flat to the dollar from the 14th to the 21st? lol

Oops lol. Fixed

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10 minutes ago, Spaghetti said:

Jesus was O Maestro flat to the dollar from the 14th to the 21st? lol

Everyone who went and saw it on the 14th got stuck there for a whole week and the sneaky studio decided to count their stay as them paying twice.

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JANUARY PTAS

 

The Power of Love - $10,210

Espionage Project - $7,719/$8,916

Walking with You - $6,500

All Kinds of Bull - $2,935/$3,516

Making Waves - $2,504/$3,416

Broadway Selects: The Band's Visit - $2,417

 

WEEKEND TOTALS (3-day only)

 

January 7-9: $78,403,039

January 14-16: $93,772,858 (+19.6%)

January 21-23: $81,543,595 (-13.0%)

January 28-30: $81,517,474 (--)

 

 

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19 minutes ago, Xillix said:

8. On the Record - $2,991,531
9. Broadway Selects: The Band's Visit - $2,290,253
10. On the Record - $2,126,979

🤔

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Estimated totals as of January 31st:

 

Espionage Project - $70m+

Walking With You - $40m+

The Power of Love - $40m+

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31 minutes ago, cookie said:

🤔

lol fixed this too

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MONTHLY PREVIEW - FEBRUARY

 

The second month of the year offers one bonafide blockbuster sequel among a slew of otherwise questionable projects. Everyone but Numerator Pictures and, in a sense, Blankments Productions, seem to be holding off and waiting for the massive tide that is the Spark finale to pass at the beginning of March.

 

February 4 - Dog Models - 3,007 theaters

The first animated film of the year is this animal kid-flick opening on Super Bowl weekend.

 

PROS:

+The only animated competition on opening weekend will be Squirrel Girl, which opened in December.

+Kids like cute cartoon animals.

 

CONS:
-The voice cast isn't terribly impressive.

-Animated competition arrives the very next weekend, and the family juggernaut Pokémon is waiting on week three.

-The poor reviews may dissuade parents from taking their kids, especially if they'd rather watch the big game or wait to catch 'em all.

 

TRACKING: $10-12 million 3-day

 

 

February 4 - VR Troopers - 2,994 theaters

Total Eclipse Entertainment's second release is this tongue-in-cheek adaptation of the 1990s kids' action show.

 

PROS:
+TriCrescent Media has succeeded with the similar Tattooed Teenage Alien Fighters and Superhuman Samurai Syber-Squad films.
+The PG-13 rating and winking tone will hope to draw in adult fans who grew up with the series.

+In its heyday, VR Troopers was a more popular show than TTAF or SSSS.

CONS:
-Gold Crescent Pictures shunted this off to a low-budget subsidiary, which doesn't inspire confidence.
-Marketing and reviews imply this isn't the over-the-top parody its sister series are, which may lead to bad word of mouth.
-How much of an adult fanbase for this Power Rangers cash-in can there honestly be?

TRACKING: $15.5-$17.5 million 3-day

 

 

February 11 - Chuck Norris and Liam Neeson vs. the Current Hollywood Landscape - 3,323 theaters (including IMAX)
Though the first installment didn't exactly wow at the box office, Blankments Productions has moved forward with a bigger, flashier sequel in their memetastic action-comedy franchise. They're hoping for a big increase at the box office thanks to goodwill from the prior movie.

 

PROS:
+Reviews are strong.
+The first movie evidently has something of a cult following; enough that home video sales must have justified this follow-up.
+The ensemble cast features several marketable names.

 

CONS:
-These sorts of fanboy-fueled cult movies rarely justify sequels, and if they do, they usually drop hard - though tracking so far suggests the opposite here.

-Regardless of the opening, these kinds of movies don't usually hold very well, and opening a week before Pokémon won't help.

-Norris and Neeson are both relatively controversial people, something the movie admittedly pokes fun at.

 

TRACKING: $34-$40 million 3-day

 

 

February 11 - Down and Dirty - 2,450 theaters

This is another concert film/documentary, the first of many this year.

 

PROS:
+Cupcakke has a rabid fanbase and her music is well-reviewed by its target audience.

 

CONS:
-Cupcakke has a SMALL rabid fanbase, and even mega-stars like Katy Perry tend to have mediocre box office performances with these kinds of movies.

 

TRACKING: $5-7 million 3-day

 

 

February 11 - Thomas Was Alone - 2,293 theaters

This semi-abstract animated family movie is hoping to counter-program the weekend's other raunchy releases.

 

PROS:
+Reviews are a lot better than Dog Models.

CONS:
-The minimalist, abstract aesthetic may be a turn-off for kids and families.
-It's sandwiched between the more typically-appealing Dog Models and Pokémon.

-The theater count is fairly low for an animated movie.

 

TRACKING: $8-10 million 3-day

 

 

February 18 - Meme Thief

This topical teen comedy is here to fill out the schedule, it seems.

 

PROS:

+It's not rated R, so teenagers who don't have the balls to sneak into Chuck and Liam might be stuck with it.

 

CONS:

-Reviews are absolutely atrocious.

-It's opening against a blockbuster and one week after a much higher-profile meme comedy.

 

TRACKING: $5-6 million 3-day

 

 

February 18 - Pokémon: The Cinnabar Conspiracy

The third and final entry in the "Kanto trilogy" of Pokémon movies is absolutely going to come out on top for the weekend (and, frankly, the weekend after).

 

PROS:
+The prior two entries were big hits with crossover appeal between kids, families, and adult fans of the media franchise.

+Tracking suggests an opening weekend bump over the second film thanks to marketing hyping it up as the resolution of a trilogy.

+Even if Chuck and Liam breaks out the week before, it has a much narrower potential audience than this film.

 

CONS:
-The first two movies had heavy drops in their second weekends, which the finale factor is only likely to exacerbate.

-Spark: A Hero's Promise opens in two weeks and threatens to cut this film's run short with its four-quadrant appeal.

 

TRACKING: $125-135 million 3-day

 

 

February 25 - Little Black Bugs

This creepy-crawly 3D horror flick from Lager Films hopes to prove a rancid treat for starved spook-seekers.

 

PROS:
+Reviews are very solid for a horror movie.

+It's the first horror film of the year and won't be competing directly with anything else currently in release.

 

CONS:
-Gross-out horror movies never really reach the heights of the big supernatural shockers or slasher franchises at the box office.

 

TRACKING: $18-21 million 3-day

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February 4-6

Love Conquers All New Openers

The Power of Love held off fellow superhero comedy VR Troopers, which opened in line with tracking. Dog Models came up in third with a tally on the low end of tracking. It was a quiet weekend overall with two top ten slots taken by films that grossed under a million dollars. Next week, three new wide releases will attempt to liven things up.

 

1. The Power of Love - $19,301,114 (-48.6%)
2. VR Troopers - $16,806,906

3. Dog Models - $10,064,012

4. Walking with You - $6,558,209 (-42.4%)

5. The Unbeatable Squirrel Girl - $5,276,502 (-24.8%)

6. Espionage Project - $5,191,412 (-37.7%)
7. The Scavenger Wars Part II - $4,743,722 (-28.6%)
8. The Three-Month Funeral - $2,377,778 (-28.3%)
9. On the Record - $948,664 (-36.2%)
10. O, Maestro! - $720,721 (-38.6%)

 

February 11-13

Chuck and Liam Grow, But Still Come Up Short

Though it took number one for the weekend and surpassed the first film's opening, Chuck Norris and Liam Neeson vs. the Current Hollywood Landscape under-performed compared to optimistic tracking with a $20.1 million opening. The dedicated cult fanbase of the first film turned out, but general audience interest just wasn't there - it can't have helped it was following two back-to-back action comedies, but that's not the real problem here. What gets millions of likes and shares on the internet doesn't always translate to box office success. That was a lesson also learned by Down and Dirty, which did about half of what tracking expected with $3.2 million. Thomas Was Alone was too strange for general family audiences, who chose the second weekend of Dog Models over it. The Power of Love and Walking with You experienced light drops thanks to the proximity to Valentine's Day.

 

1. Chuck Norris and Liam Neeson vs. the Current Hollywood Landscape - $20,106,621

2. The Power of Love - $13,780,995 (-28.6%)
3. VR Troopers - $6,789,990 (-59.6%)
4. Dog Models - $6,601,992 (-34.4%)
5. Thomas Was Alone - $6,274,611
6. Walking with You - $4,833,400 (-26.3%)
7. The Unbeatable Squirrel Girl - $3,826,316 (-27.5%)
8. The Scavenger Wars Part II - $3,807,811 (-19.7%)
9. Down and Dirty - $3,190,722
10. Espionage Project - $2,066,182 (-60.2%)


February 18-21 (Presidents' Day Weekend)

Pokémon Catches All Audiences

As expected, Pokémon: The Cinnabar Conspiracy proved itself the first big blockbuster of the year with a finale bump over its predecessor's opening. The $122.6 million 3-day is just a hair shy of where tracking had it, but nothing to sneeze at. Things were pretty barren elsewhere in multiplexes, with the teen comedy Meme Thief performing in line with tracking at a soft $5.4 million. Chuck and Liam was predictably front-loaded; in fact, its 61.4% drop is lighter than some industry sources were expecting. Thomas Was Alone's 61.1% drop seems much worse in comparison.

 

1. Pokémon: The Cinnabar Conspiracy - $122,610,319 (3-day) / $157,309,040 (4-day)
2. Chuck Norris and Liam Neeson vs. the Current Hollywood Landscape - $7,761,156 (3-day) / $8,886,523 (4-day) (-61.4%)

3. The Power of Love - $6,945,622 (3-day) (-49.6%)
4. Meme Thief - $5,363,294 (3-day) / $7,052,732 (4-day)
5. Dog Models - $3,439,638 (3-day) (-47.9%)
6. The Scavenger Wars Part II - $3,
164,291 (3-day) (-16.9%)

7. VR Troopers  - $2,770,316 (3-day) (-59.2%)
8. The Unbeatable Squirrel Girl - $2,686,269 (3-day) (-29.8%)
9. Walking with You - $2,614,869 (3-day) (-45.9%)
10. Thomas Was Alone - $2,440,824 (3-day) / $3,199,920 (4-day) (-61.1%)

February 25-27
Pokémon Fall Hard But Squash Bugs on the Landing

Pokémon: The Cinnabar Conspiracy fell about 68% from opening weekend, which is considerably worse than the second film's drop but only slightly worse than the first's. It's clear these films don't play like typical family flicks, drawing in a video game fanboy crowd that tends to frontload things. With Spark: A Hero's Promise opening next weekend, it's a good thing this one opened big, because it's likely to roll off another cliff. Little Black Bugs slightly under-performed - blame the ick factor and the number of moviegoers of all types waiting 'til next weekend to come to the cinema - but its $16.5 million haul is still healthy for the $15 million production.

 

1. Pokémon: The Cinnabar Conspiracy - $39,112,590 (-68.1%)
2. Little Black Bugs - $16,507,290
3. The Power of Love - $3,576,995 (-48.5%)
4. Chuck Norris and Liam Neeson vs. the Current Hollywood Landscape - $3,259,685 (-58%)
5. Meme Thief - $2,847,909 (-46.9%)
6.
The Scavenger Wars Part II - $2,413,097  (-23.7%)
7. Dog Models - $2,369,910 (-31.1%)
8. The Unbeatable Squirrel Girl - $2,038,804 (-24.1%)
9. VR Troopers - $1,396,239 (-49.6%)
10. Walking with You - $1,262,982 (-51.7%)

Edited by Xillix
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February PTAs

 

Pokemon: The Cinnabar Conspiracy - $28,012/$35,940

Little Black Bugs - $6,062

Chuck Norris and Liam Neeson vs. the Current Hollywood Landscape - $6,051

VR Troopers - $5,589

Dog Models - $3,361

Thomas was Alone - $2,736

Meme Thief - $1,658/$2,180

Down and Dirty - $1,302

 

Weekend Totals (3-Day Only)

 

Feb. 4-6: $71,989,040 (-11.7%)

Feb. 11-13: $71,278,640 (--)

Feb. 18-20: $159,796,598 (+124.2%)

Feb. 25-27: $74,785,501 (-53.2%)

Edited by Rorschach
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