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Xillix

Well Actually... Y6 ACTUALS

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4 hours ago, Blankments said:

i'd legit take sub-80m DOM performances for plus one and children of eden over a sub-100m DOM performance for chuck and liam, but i know the bargaining stage of grief doesn't actually work

I’m honestly not sure why you expected that much for CN&LN2 when the first one didn’t do too hot (and was even the joke of the sequel)

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2 hours ago, cookie said:

I’m honestly not sure why you expected that much for CN&LN2 when the first one didn’t do too hot (and was even the joke of the sequel)

i mean, i was expecting around 30M/75M total for C&L2 seeing how it's got great reviews and its what I'd consider my flagship franchise. It's also honestly the only film this year that I guarantee sequels are getting made from (sequels for other films will be contingent on box office results, but C&L is the franchise that's closest to my heart), and, hypothetically speaking, a studio's biggest franchise should at least make some profit

 

that said, i still plan on doing 3 and 4 with the budgets i have planned for them because i legit care more about this franchise than anything else i have in the pipeline, but to say these numbers aren't a huge bummer would be a lie and honestly will sour my opinion on this year regardless of how much my other films make. sorry if that's a problem for anyone else, but that's how i feel last night when i saw the actuals, and still how i feel this morning after sleeping on it 🤷‍♀️

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2 hours ago, Blankments said:

i mean, i was expecting around 30M/75M total for C&L2 seeing how it's got great reviews and its what I'd consider my flagship franchise. It's also honestly the only film this year that I guarantee sequels are getting made from (sequels for other films will be contingent on box office results, but C&L is the franchise that's closest to my heart), and, hypothetically speaking, a studio's biggest franchise should at least make some profit

 

that said, i still plan on doing 3 and 4 with the budgets i have planned for them because i legit care more about this franchise than anything else i have in the pipeline, but to say these numbers aren't a huge bummer would be a lie and honestly will sour my opinion on this year regardless of how much my other films make. sorry if that's a problem for anyone else, but that's how i feel last night when i saw the actuals, and still how i feel this morning after sleeping on it 🤷‍♀️

Well, you could always say the profits from the more successful films go to finance more CN&LN sequels...

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MONTHLY PREVIEW - MARCH

 

This is where we finally kick into high gear. Spark: A Hero's Promise will open the month and is expected to deliver a record-breaking opening. Also hoping to make some bank in its wake will be Thermal and The Fairly OddParents, with a smattering of smaller releases filling out the schedule.

 

March 4 - Rapsittie Street Kids: A Bunny's Tale - 2,571 theaters

The surreal, legally dubious Jonny Jonny movie has somehow warranted a spinoff, which, in what must be a Producers-esque con of some sort, is opening against what's likely to be the year's biggest blockbuster.

 

PROS:
+You'll have to ask someone else.

 

CONS:
-Reviews and tracking are both in the toilet, and it's opening against a juggernaut from one of the same distributors.

 

TRACKING: $1.5-3 million 3-day

 

 

March 4 - Spark: A Hero's Promise - 4,588 theaters (Including IMAX)

The final chapter of one of the biggest franchises in recent memory is sure to dominate the box office this weekend.

 

PROS:
+The first three Spark movies have been highly successful and anticipation for the finale is at a fever pitch.

+Reviews are very solid with an 88 on Metacritic, just under the series high of 89.

 

CONS:
-It's possible competition from Pokémon could hurt this one slightly.

-As we've seen already last month, the "finale factor" can cause inflated openings and sharper-than usual dropoffs. That said, the Spark franchise historically doesn't drop as hard as Pokémon.

 

TRACKING: $245-265 million 3-day

 

March 11 - AJR: Neotheater - 2,656 theaters
Wading into the stormy Spark waters is a sort-of-kind-of concert film, though this one is apparently more of a "visual album" than a standard live performance doc.

 

PROS:
+The unusual not-quite-a-concert approach could help (or hurt, frankly).
+AJR have at least had more chart success than Cupcakke, which isn't saying much.

 

CONS:
-It's unlikely there will be much of an audience for this outside of the relatively obscure band's hardcore fans.

 

TRACKING: $5-7 million 3-day

 

 

March 11 - The Fairly OddParents - 3,425 theaters

New Journey Pictures is hoping to get a piece of the magic box office muffin with this mid-budget cartoon adaptation.

 

PROS:
+The source show on Nickelodeon ran for a long time and was very popular.

+If Pokémon continues to fall sharply there could be some room in the market.

 

CONS:
-The show WAS very popular, but it's unclear how many people still care about it now.

-Reviews are awful, with series fans complaining about its lack of faithfulness to the show and other critics suggesting the story is a bad influence on children.

-Opening in the second weekend of Spark was probably not an ideal decision.

-Fans of the show already got multiple live-action television movies during its run, which may suppress anticipation for this big-screen version.

 

TRACKING: $24-26 million 3-day

 

March 18 - Thermal - 3,812 theaters (Including IMAX)

The latest in Gold Crescent Pictures' long line of disaster movies is taking a shot at dethroning Spark two weeks into its run.

 

PROS:
+These films are generally solid performers with big-screen appeal.

+Reviews are decent; better than last year's In the Valley.

 

CONS:
-Last year's entry in the unofficial franchise bombed at the box office.

-Unlike the studio's biggest disaster hits, this is neither based on a historical event or a remake of an existing blockbuster.

-Spark should still be providing significant direct competition.

 

TRACKING: $49-51 million 3-day

 

March 25 - Irreplaceable - 2,450 theaters

Closing out the month is a more traditional concert movie.

 

PROS:
+Beyoncé is a completely different level of celebrity than AJR or Cupcakke, and her tours are known to do very well.

 

CONS:
-Concert movies rarely break the $20 million opening ceiling unless they're targeted specifically to a tween superstar's pubescent fanbase; Katy Perry's film managed under $8 million at the height of her career.

 

TRACKING: $16-18 million 3-day

 

Limited Release - The Con Gone Wrong

This humorous documentary will open in 15 theaters on March 18 and expand into 187 on the 25th before going wide next month. Don't expect to see it hit the top ten until then.

 

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March 4-6

Spark Burns Brighter Than Ever, Bunny Gets Burned

Spark: A Hero's Promise opened in line with tracking, grossing a huge $254.1 million for the weekend and passing fellow franchise capstone The Odyssey: Homecoming. It was obviously far out ahead of anything else, but Pokémon actually stabilized slightly in its third weekend despite the competition; perhaps after the initial fan rush, it will start to play more like a family film. Rapsittie Street Kids: A Bunny's Tale came in below dire projections at right around $1 million for the weekend, dropping sharply from Friday thru Sunday. Other releases generally took bigger-than-usual drops this weekend as Spark sucked the air out of the box office.

 

1. Spark: A Hero's Promise - $254,059,559
2. Pokémon: The Cinnabar Conspiracy - $15,918,824 (-59.3%)
3. Little Black Bugs - $7,164,164 (-56.6%)
4. The Power of Love - $1,148,215 (-67.9%)
5. Meme Thief - $1,136,316 (-60.1%)

6. Chuck Norris and Liam Neeson vs. the Current Hollywood Landscape - $1,072,436 (-67.1%)
7. Rapsittie Street Kids: A Bunny's Tale - $1,001,333
8. The Scavenger Wars Part II - $985,147 (-59.2%)
9. The Unbeatable Squirrel Girl - $870,154 (-57.3%)
10. VR Troopers - $695,327 (-50.2%)

 

March 11-13

No One Wants to Be Adopted by the OddParents

The Fairly OddParents opened just a touch below tracking with $23.5 million, a disappointing but not surprising start for the poorly-received kids' flick. It seems a good chunk of families, perhaps heeding that film's toxic reception, just went to see Pokémon again as it continues to dramatically stabilize in the long run. Spark's drop was respectable, holding at over $110 million for the second weekend. AJR: Neotheater performed in line with the other concert films so far this year at $3.4 million.

 

1. Spark: A Hero's Promise - $112,802,444 (-55.6%)
2. The Fairly OddParents - $23,484,496
3. Pokémon: The Cinnabar Conspiracy - $9,216,999 (-42.1%)
4. Little Black Bugs - $3,531,933 (-50.7%)
5. AJR: Neotheater - $3,376,892
6. The Scavenger Wars Part II - $652,735 (-33.7%)
7. Meme Thief - $593,157 (-47.8%)
8. The Power of Love - $541,958 (-52.8%)
9. The Unbeatable Squirrel Girl - $525,573 (-39.6%)
10. Chuck Norris and Liam Neeson vs. the Current Hollywood Landscape - $474,017 (-55.8%)

March 18-20

Thermal Cooler Than Expected, Can't Snuff Out Spark

It was expected to be a close race for #1 this weekend, but Spark: A Hero's Promise managed to pull off a clear win thanks to holding better than expected and Thermal coming in well under tracking at $43.1 million. It's the second disappointment in a row for Gold Crescent Pictures and their disaster flicks, though not as damaging a failure as In the Valley. Outside of the top ten, The Con Gone Wrong debuted in 15 theaters for $83,145, a $5,543 PTA for the documentary on a rather niche subject.

 

1. Spark: A Hero's Promise - $59,559,691 (-47.2%)
2. Thermal - $43,050,741
3. The Fairly OddParents - $9,886,973 (-57.9%)
4. Pokémon: The Cinnabar Conspiracy - $5,769,841 (-37.4%)
5. Little Black Bugs - $1,684,732 (-52.3%)
6. AJR: Neotheater - $1,468,948 (-56.5%)
7. The Scavenger Wars Part II - $474,538 (-27.3%)
8. The Unbeatable Squirrel Girl - $423,540 (-19.4%)
9. Meme Thief - $242,601 (-59.1%)
10. Chuck Norris and Liam Neeson vs. the Current Hollywood Landscape - $219,470 (-53.7%)
-. The Con Gone Wrong - $83,145

March 25-27

Beyoncé Can't Replace Holdovers for Top Spots

It was never a question that Irreplaceable would open much bigger than any of the prior concert films this year, so even a bit below tracking at $14.6 million it still doesn't look too bad. That's almost twice what Katy Perry: A Part of Me managed when it opened at the height of that singer's career in 2012. It was another photo finish for the top two spots, but Thermal remained stuck in second place with a noticeably worse drop than Spark's fourth weekend. The Con Gone Wrong expanded into 187 theaters and managed to enter the top 10 before its wide release thanks to the sorry state of the box office in general this month.

 

1. Spark: A Hero's Promise - $32,102,673 (-46.1%)
2. Thermal - $20,535,203 (-52.3%)
3. Irreplaceable - $14,616,296
4. The Fairly OddParents - $4,399,703 (-55.5%)
5. Pokémon: The Cinnabar Conspiracy - $3,473,445 (-39.8%)
6. Little Black Bugs - $651,991 (-61.3%)
7. The Con Gone Wrong - $546,227 (+557%)
8. AJR: Neotheater - $539,104 (-63.3%)
9. The Unbeatable Squirrel Girl - $328,244 (-22.5%)
10. The Scavenger Wars Part II - $310,822 (-34.5%)

Edited by Xillix
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March PTAs

 

Spark: A Hero's Promise - $55,375

Thermal - $11,293

The Fairly OddParents - $6,857

Irreplaceable - $5,966

The Cone Gone Wrong (limited release) - $5,543

The Cone Gone Wrong (limited expansion) - $2,921

AJR: Neotheater - $1,271

Rapsitttie Street Kids: A Bunny's Tale - $389

 

Weekend Totals (3-Day Only)

 

March 4-6: $284,051,475 (+479.8%)

March 11-13: $155,200,204 (-45.4%)

March 18-20: $122,781,075 (-20.9%)

March 25-27: $77,503,708 (-36.9%)

Edited by Rorschach
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MONTHLY PREVIEW - APRIL

Spring box office is hoping to get a much-needed wake-up shot with titles like Super Mario Bros. and Children of Eden and some potentially promising midrange releases.

 

April 1 - Super Mario Bros. - 4,457 theaters (Including IMAX)

Endless Animation's adaptation of the iconic video game franchise is looking to right the wrongs of Leguizamos past and provide a hit family film after a string of disappointing family openers.

 

PROS:
+Mario is about as universally-known and loved as it gets when it comes to video games.

+The recent slew of family films have largely under-performed, meaning there's a hole in the market.

+Reviews are solid, a noticeable improvement on Endless' previous video game movies.

 

CONS:
-The last time they tried to make a Mario movie, it didn't really turn out so hot.

 

Tracking: $95-105 million 3-day

 

April 8 - Children of Eden - 3,907 theaters (Including IMAX)

Blankments Productions is getting a jump on Easter with this biblically-inspired musical, based on a stage play.

 

PROS:
+Faith-based films can draw very devoted audiences and sometimes break out.

+The presence of music and a well-known blockbuster filmmakers could help draw in secular viewers.

+With Easter next weekend, expect a very strong hold.

 

CONS:
-There's been some controversy over the way the scripture has been adapted here, with some Christian audiences fearing the narrative is too stained by the fingerprints of man, which might keep some weary churchgoers away.

-Darren Aronofsky's Noah opened with about $45 million and fell quickly; it faced similar controversy from the devout while aiming for a wide audience.

-Musicals tend not to be as big at the cinema as sword-and-sandal epics and the like.

 

Tracking: $52-$58 million 3-day

 

April 8 - Pandas - 2,450 theaters

Another of those animal documentaries that periodically pop up to fill the schedule.

 

PROS:
+These movies perform pretty consistently.

 

CONS:
-Those performances are pretty consistently unspectacular.

 

Tracking: $7-9 million 3-day

 

April 15 - Home Invasion Part II: Abduction - 3,029 theaters

The sequel to the modestly-successful sci-fi thriller adds action star Jason Statham to the mix.

 

PROS:

+Jason Statham is a very recognizeable modern macho man.

+Reviews are slightly better this time around (though that isn't saying much).

 

CONS:
-Sequels to badly-received action movies often suffer pretty big drops thanks to poor word of mouth centered on their predecessors.

 

Tracking: $16-18 million 3-day

 

April 15 - The Pixies in the Back Yard - 3,200 theaters

This modest live-action kids' fantasy is hoping to be a solid choice for families over Easter weekend.

 

PROS:
+Easter could lead to a stronger-than-usual Sunday.

 

CONS:

-Super Mario Bros. is likely to still be going strong.

-Reviews are mixed and unlikely to draw much attention.

 

Tracking: $11-13 million 3-day

 

April 22 - Jane and Tony - 2,479 theaters

This drama will try to counterprogram the month's family and genre fare.

 

PROS:
+It's been quite a while since we've had a straight, adult-oriented drama.

 

CONS:
-Reviews are not encouraging with a 46 on Metacritic, which could lead discerning audiences to give it a pass.

 

Tracking: $9.5-$11.5 million 3-day

 

April 22 - The Thin, the Phat, and the Felon - 3,793 theaters

Edgar Wright's comedy-western aims to shoot audiences in the funny bone.

 

PROS:

+Reviews are solid at a 76 MC score.
+There hasn't been a comedy offering since Meme Thief, which didn't exactly satiate audiences.

 

CONS:
-Westerns can be a tough sell at the modern box office.

-Seth MacFarlane's A Million Ways to Die in the West was a notorious flop back in 2014.

 

Tracking: $28-32 million 3-day

 

April 29 - The Blushing - 2,852 theaters

This British-set horror movie wants to spook up some pre-summer cash.

 

PROS:
+There hasn't been a horror movie since Little Black Bugs.

 

CONS:

-Reviews are poor at a 48, though that's admittedly not godawful for a horror movie.

-Marketing and critics' reactions indicate a rather blatant retread of 28 Days Later, which audiences can just stay home and watch.

 

Tracking: $11-13 million 3-day

 

April 29 - Nights into Dreams - 3,103 theaters

Another, smaller-scale video game animated flick flies into theatres to wrap up spring.

 

PROS:
+The game on the Sega Saturn has a cult following.

+Director Kevin Munroe has had decent success with his SWAT Kats films, which similarly traded in 90s nostalgia.

 

CONS:
-The source game is quite obscure among the general public.

-Opening a few weeks after the similar and much higher-profile Super Mario Bros. will likely prove a very poor decision.

 

Tracking: $20-$23 million 3-day

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40M

  1. Pokemon: The Cinnabar Conspiracy - February 20
  2. Spark: A Hero's Promise - March 6
  3. Thermal - March 20

75M

  1. Pokemon: The Cinnabar Conspiracy - February 20
  2. Spark: A Hero's Promise - March 6

100M

  1. Pokemon: The Cinnabar Conspiracy - February 20
  2. Spark: A Hero's Promise - March 6

150M

  1. Spark: A Hero's Promise - March 6

200M

  1. Spark: A Hero's Promise - March 6

250M

  1. Spark: A Hero's Promise - March 6
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April 1-3

Mario Jumps Higher Than Predicted

Thanks to the strength of the brand and the under-performance of recent family flicks, Super Mario Bros. came in somewhat ahead of tracking with a great $115.9 million opening. There is family competition coming later in the month, but if audience response is anything to go by this should hold fairly well.

 

1. Super Mario Bros. - $115,879,491

2. Spark: A Hero's Promise - $15,698,207 (-51.1%)
3. Thermal - $9,507,153 (-53.8%)
4. Irreplaceable - $7,775,869 (-46.8%)
5. Pokémon: The Cinnabar Conspiracy - $1,743,669 (-49.8%)
6. The Fairly OddParents - $1,460,701 (-66.8%)
7. The Con Gone Wrong - $1,445,203 (+164.6%)
8. Little Black Bugs - $245,149 (-62.4%)
9. AJR: Neotheater - $216,181 (-59.9%)
10. The Unbeatable Squirrel Girl - $211,717 (-35.5%)

April 8-10

The Mushroom Kingdom Outsells the Kingdom of God

Children of Eden opened well, but also well below tracking, in part due to some controversy in religious circles about how the movie depicts the creation story and what it implies to viewers about God. Its $43.5 opening is still solid and it will be interesting to see what happens next week for Easter. Pandas was also slightly below tracking, but did well enough for one of these low-cost nature documentaries. Mario held reasonably well in its second frame, showing it's playing more to families than just fanboys even early on in its run.

 

1. Super Mario Bros. - $57,244,469 (-50.6%)
2. Children of Eden - $43,526,919
3. Spark: A Hero's Promise - $8,524,127 (-45.7%)

4. Pandas - $6,069,628
5. Thermal - $4,335,262 (-54.4%)
6. Irreplaceable - $3,701,314 (-52.4%)
7. Pokémon: The Cinnabar Conspiracy - $1,002,610 (-42.5%)
8. The Con Gone Wrong - $812,204 (-43.8%)
9. The Fairly OddParents - $720,126 (-50.7%)
10. The Unbeatable Squirrel Girl - $189,063 (-10.7%)

 

April 15-17 (Easter Weekend)
Divine Intervention Dethrones the Koopa King

Children of Eden experienced an 11% surge in its second weekend. This is partially thanks to the Easter holiday, as a largely disproportionate amount of the weekend's gross came in on Sunday. Perhaps some church groups were waiting until this week to see it because of the holiday. The other major factor is that the same controversy that suppressed the opening seems to have opened up a dialogue that is now actually benefiting the movie, with both religious and secular audiences attending (and perhaps re-attending, in the case of the devout) in order to draw their own conclusions. The two new openers stayed far behind the top two, with Home Invasion Part II landing below projections thanks to the lack of goodwill from the first installment. The Pixies in the Back Yard performed lightly as expected and didn't seem to have much, if any, impact on Super Mario Bros. while Spark managed a great hold in part thanks to a family-focused "see it again" holiday marketing push.

 

1. Children of Eden - $48,314,880 (+11%)
2. Super Mario Bros. - $31,026,502 (-45.8%)
3. Home Invasion Part II: Abduction - $13,739,487
4. The Pixies in the Back Yard - $11,901,226

5. Spark: A Hero's Promise - $5,515,110 (-35.3%)

6. Pandas - $3,107,650 (-48.8%)
7. Thermal - $2,258,671 (-47.9%)
8. Irreplaceable - $1,761,825 (-52.4%)
9. Pokémon: The Cinnabar Conspiracy - $570,485 (-43.1%)
10. The Con Gone Wrong - $423,158 (-47.9%)

 

April 22-24

Cowboys Lose Shootout with God

Blankments Productions was at war with itself for the top slot this weekend, with Children of Eden dropping hard from its inflated Easter gross and giving the edge to western comedy The Thin, the Phat, and the Felon. The Edgar Wright film performed on the low end of tracking but, given the director's history, is likely to post decent holds. Jane and Tony slightly over-performed thanks to the total lack of adult dramas in recent months. Pandas barely fell at all thanks to Earth Day marketing.


1. The Thin, the Phat, and the Felon - $28,670,178
2. Children of Eden - $19,615,841 (-59.4%)

3. Super Mario Bros. - $18,398,716 (-40.7%)
4. Jane and Tony - $13,551,885
5. The Pixies in the Back Yard - $6,926,514 (-41.8%)
6. Home Invasion Part II: Abduction - $5,756,845 (-58.1%)

6. Spark: A Hero's Promise - $3,430,398 (-37.8%)
8. Pandas - $2,725,409 (-12.3%)
9. Thermal - $1,140,629 (-49.5%)
10. Irreplaceable - $743,490 (-57.8%)


April 29 - May 1

New Releases Left Blushing by Nightmarish Openings

Both of the weekend's openers under-performed relative to expectations. For The Blushing it wasn't too terrible, with its $9.4 million debut only a couple million shy of tracking. But animated fantasy Nights into Dreams couldn't fly nearly as high as expected, coming up well short of predictions with $12.8 million. Blame the proximity to the over-performing Super Mario Bros. (which did experience an unusually steep drop thanks to the direct competition), the middling reviews, and lack of enthusiasm for the source material. Children of Eden stabilized dramatically thanks to good word-of-mouth and not falling off a cliff from Easter this time around, while Pandas had the opposite experience and slid mightily from its Earth Day hold.

 

1. The Thin, the Phat, and the Felon - $16,886,735 (-41.1%)

2. Children of Eden - $13,593,778 (-30.7%)

3. Nights into Dreams - $12,808,868

4. The Blushing - $9,360,596

5. Jane and Tony - $7,819,438 (-42.3%)

6. Super Mario Bros. - $7,672,264 (-58.3%)

7. The Pixies in the Back Yard - $3,539,448 (-48.9%)

8. Home Invasion Part II: Abduction - $2,492,714 (-56.7%)

9. Spark: A Hero's Promise - $2,236,620 (-34.8%)

10. Pandas - $1,084,713 (-60.2%)

Edited by Xillix
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1 hour ago, Xillix said:

1. Children of Eden - $17,018,240 (-40.9%)

2. The Thin, the Phat, and the Felon - $16,886,735 (-41.1%)

3. Nights into Dreams - $12,808,868

4. The Blushing - $9,360,596

5. Jane and Tony - $7,819,438 (-42.3%)

6. Super Mario Bros. - $7,672,264 (-58.3%)

7. The Pixies in the Back Yard - $3,539,448 (-48.9%)

8. Home Invasion Part II: Abduction - $2,492,714 (-56.7%)

9. Spark: A Hero's Promise - $1,236,241 (-34.8%)

10. Pandas - $1,084,713 (-60.2%)

Even looking aside the Mario drop those are some steep drops for an otherwise quiet weekend.

Edited by cookie
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Estimated totals as of May 6th:

 

Power of Love -  ~$110m

Pokémon - ~$290m

Sp4rk - ~$590m

Fairly Odd Parents - ~$55m

Thermal - $105m+

Super Mario Bros. - $300m+

Children of Eden - $180m+

Thin, Phat and the Felon - $55m+

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18 minutes ago, cookie said:

Estimated totals as of May 6th:

 

Power of Love -  ~$110m

Pokémon - ~$290m

Sp4rk - ~$590m

Fairly Odd Parents - ~$55m

Thermal - $105m+

Super Mario Bros. - $300m+

Children of Eden - $180m+

Thin, Phat and the Felon - $55m+

You think Mario can reach $350M?

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