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Xillix

Well Actually... Y6 ACTUALS

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56 minutes ago, cookie said:

I mean I assumed above RoL was a done deal anyway so I don't really care what happens. But I agree with Xillix that it shouldn't be a regular occurrence, just so more people don’t start bargaining in the future.

 

 

I agree. I don't want to come off as a hypocrite, but I know that for a fact I will not try to bargain for any future runs, not that I demanded Xillix change the numbers or anything, but you get my point.

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The numbers are the numbers. No bargaining or changing unless it's an obvious mistake. Let them be as they are.

 

I have a couple bones to pick with certain films but I'm not going to ask for changes.

Edited by 4815162342
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I do not agree with OW changes (at least it has to be HUGELY BS, which next to never happens) but legs are a bit of a different matter, IMO.

 

Also, I did not ask for the numbers to be changed so much as express an opinion on them. I just want that to be 100% clear. If Xillix doesn't end up changing them, it's all right, but I dont want people to think I threw a tantrum and forced him to do so.

Edited by Spaghetti
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1 hour ago, 4815162342 said:

The numbers are the numbers. No bargaining or changing unless it's an obvious mistake. Let them be as they are.

 

I have a couple bones to pick with certain films but I'm not going to ask for changes.

Out of curiosity which ones 

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April PTAs

 

Super Mario Bros. - $25,999

Children of Eden - $11,141

The Thin, the Phat, and the Felon - $7,559

Jane and Tony - $5,467

Home Invasion Part II: Abduction - $4,536

Nights into Dreams - $4,128

The Pixies in the Backyard - $3,719

The Blushing - $3,282

Pandas - $2,477

 

Weekend Totals (3-Day Only)

 

April 1-3: $154,183,340 (+98.9%)

April 8-10: $126,125,722 (-18.2%)
April 15-17: $118,618,994 (-6%)

April 22-24: $100,959,905 (-14.9%)

April 29-May 1: $77,495,174 (-23.2%)

Edited by Rorschach
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30 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Out of curiosity which ones 

A musical whose name is a plural meaning human offspring, followed by a preposition expressing the relationship between a part and a whole, and concluded with the name of a location in Abrahamic scripture.

 

At least that’s my best guess.

Edited by cookie
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4 minutes ago, cookie said:

A musical whose name is a plural meaning human offspring, followed by a preposition expressing the relationship between a part and a whole, and concluded with the name of a location in Abrahamic scripture.

 

At least that’s my best guess.

Given the second weekend increase, the holds after that feel a bit suspect. However, since Chuck and Liam got decimated I figured @Blankmentsdeserved a bit of mercy.

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@Xillix I'm just gonna be candid: You really don't need to change the numbers.

 

As much as I felt underwhelmed by the weekend holds of AHP, I can't really say that most other films in Y6 did a lot better. Hell, there were quite a few weekends in April where Sp4rk had one of the better holds in the top 10. I feel like it's kind of unfair if my film gets salvaged and the others don't. 

 

Unless the discussion continues, this is the last thing I will say about this otherwise satisfying run.

Edited by Spaghetti
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I’m going to change the holds on Spark for exactly one reason - this counts, to me, as an actual mistake as opposed to an unpopular opinion. I definitely didn’t intend it to hold worse than Endgame and I definitely did intend it to outgross Lotor, and I wasn’t keeping track of the running totals closely enough for that.

 

I’m also going to adjust down the THIRD weekend of Eden because in retrospect it was dumb as hell of me to enforce a sharp post holiday drop on Pandas and not on that. The fourth will also drop somewhat to smooth out the transition. No other weekends will be affected.

 

I make this decisions of my own free will and we can officially stop talking about it now. Also.

 

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Edited by Xillix
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On 11/1/2019 at 3:36 AM, cookie said:

Estimated totals as of May 6th:

 

Power of Love -  ~$110m

Pokémon - ~$290m

Sp4rk - ~$590m

Fairly Odd Parents - ~$55m

Thermal - $105m+

Super Mario Bros. - $300m+

Children of Eden - $180m+

Thin, Phat and the Felon - $55m+

Updated:

 

Sp4rk - $650m+

Children of Eden - $160m+

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MONTHLY PREVIEW - MAY

Summer movie season kicks off with a few viable hits, but nothing will likely come close to the juggernaut A Hero's Promise.

 

May 6 - Mass Effect: Ascension - 4,207 theaters (including IMAX)

Tracking has gone into overdrive for this sci-fi video game sequel, projections showing a potential 1.4x OW bump over its predecessor, which would be phenomenal to say the least.

Pros:
+The first film was very well-received, and this sequel has scored even better with critics.

+Spark is out of wide release by now, with the series (theoretically) having come to a close.

+April had a complete lack of big action-packed tentpoles, so Ascension will open with little to no direct competition.

 

Cons:

-While an increase of some sort seems locked, it's likely the extremely high tracking is skewed by a fervent online fanbase of the games.

-Could the Spark finale have sated sci-fi audiences for the time being, even if it's not playing in most theaters anymore?

 

Tracking: $120-135 million

 

May 13 - Brickleberry: Armoogeddon - 3,102 theaters

This intentionally offensive R-rated animated film, based on a short-lived, poorly-received TV show, is going after the unfunny edgelord audience.

 

Pros:
+There are a lot of unfunny edgelords out there.

 

Cons:
-It's the worst-reviewed film of the year so far.

-The source material's total lack of popularity inspires no confidence.

 

Tracking: $6-8 million

 

May 13 - Facepaint - 2,805 theaters

Hoping to cash in on Friday the 13th is this Christian horror film from New Journey Pictures.

 

Pros:
+Obviously the release date is likely to be a boon.

+Secular audiences tend to be more tolerant of explicitly religious themes in horror than in other types of films.

 

Cons:

-Reviews are mixed.

-The film may be a bit too tame and abstract a brand of horror for genre aficionados.

 

Tracking: $14-16 million

 

May 20 - Lumberjanes: Secret of the Eye - 3,751 theaters

This kooky comic-based family adventure hopes to launch a new franchise.

 

Pros:
+Reviews are very solid.

+There's plenty of the kooky fantastical fun young audiences respond to.

+The comic has a cult following that could inspire a fan turnout in addition to families.

+With little major family competition until late July (Pikmin looks to have limited appeal), it could be in for a long run.

 

Cons:

-The comic doesn't have much in the way of mainstream recognition to give it a boost.

-The more or less all-female cast may alienate young boys.

 

Tracking: $40-50 million

 

May 27 - Double Chronomance - 3,761 theaters

Blankments' sci-fi romcom hopes to be a solid counter-programming choice over Memorial Day weekend.

 

Pros:
+There's very little in the way of adult-oriented comedy competition.

 

Cons:

-Elements of the film seem highly reminiscent of Blankments' own flop Marked Up Time.

-Reviews are poor.

 

Tracking: $16-20 million (3-day)

May 27 - Green Arrow - 4,062 theaters (including IMAX)

Hoping to lead the Memorial Day box office is another superhero origin story.

 

Pros:
+Endless Entertainment has had success with these types of films before, notably Blue and Gold and Static Shock.

+Reviews are good if unspectacular.

+The Green Arrow TV series has been a decent performer for The CW.

 

Cons:

-Green Arrow himself is definitely on the B or C-List when it comes to comic book superheroes.

-Audiences could be turned off by the fact the film is concerned more or less entirely with the lead's backstory as opposed to recognizable superhero action.

 

Tracking: $50-55 million (3-day)

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May 6-8

Mass Effect Sequel Ascends, But Not as High as Projected

Mass Effect: Ascension easily topped the box office with $114.5 million, which was a bit under where very optimistic tracking had it. It's still a solid increase over the original film. Nights into Dreams and The Blushing both tumbled in their second weekends.

 

1. Mass Effect: Ascension - $114,519,264

2. Children of Eden - $9,411,087 (-42.6%)
3. The Thin, the Phat and the Felon - $9,338,364 (-44.7%)
4. Nights into Dreams - $6,301,963 (-50.8%)
5. Jane and Tony - $4,159,941 (-46.8%)
6. The Blushing - $3,725,517 (-60.2%)
7. Super Mario Bros. - $3,207,860 (-49.4%)
8. The Pixies in the Back Yard - $1,716,450 (-42.4%)
9. Spark: A Hero's Promise - $1,129,493 (-49.5%)
10. Home Invasion Part II: Abduction - $868,702 (-70.2%)

May 13-15

Mass Effect Repeats, Brickleberry Bombs

Mass Effect managed a pretty decent hold, good enough to remain at nearly $55 million. Horror title Facepaint was just under tracking, perhaps thanks to its odd tone not appealing to as many mainstream horror fans as expected. Brickleberry: Armoogeddon bombed with $4.3 million and is likely to disappear quickly from theaters.

 

1. Mass Effect: Ascension - $54,740,208 (-52.2%)
2. Facepaint - $13,116,078

3. Children of Eden - $5,806,641 (-38.3%)
4. The Thin, the Phat and the Felon - $5,360,221 (-42.6%)

5. Brickleberry: Armoogeddon - $4,312,982

6. Nights into Dreams - $3,428,268 (-45.6%)
7. Jane and Tony - $2,254,688 (-45.8%)
8. Super Mario Bros. - $1,677,711 (-47.7%)
9. The Blushing - $1,311,382 (-64.8%)
10. The Pixies in the Back Yard - $1,033,303 (-39.8%)

May 20-22

Lumberjanes Earn Just Enough Merit Badges

Lumberjanes: Secret of the Eye came in on the low end of tracking; blame issues convincing young boys to sign up for this girls' camp for most of that. It's still a solid start for the franchise hopeful based on a relatively obscure IP, and with lack of competition it'll likely hold well. As expected, both of last weekend's releases suffered drops over 60% thanks to poor word of mouth and, in the case of Facepaint, coming off of a Friday the 13th high.

 

1. Lumberjanes: Secret of the Eye - $41,563,778

2. Mass Effect: Ascension - $25,618,417 (-53.2%)
3. Facepaint - $4,892,297 (-62.7%)
4. Children of Eden - $3,536,244 (-39.1%)
5. The Thin, the Phat and the Felon - $3,157,170 (-41.1%)
6. Brickleberry: Armoogeddon - $1,475,040 (-65.8%)
7. Nights into Dreams - $1,381,592 (-59.7%)
8. Jane and Tony - $1,098,033 (-51.3%)
9. Super Mario Bros. - $657,663 (-60.8%)
10. The Blushing - $521,930 (-60.2%)

May 27-30 (Memorial Day Weekend

Green Arrow's Aim Is True, Audiences Make a Bit of Time for Chronomance

Green Arrow hit the bullseye with its tracking, opening at $53.6 million for the 3-day and $65.5 million for the holiday weekend. With its relatively modest cost this one isn't likely to go into the red, even if it's not among the biggest superhero openers. Double Chronomance hit the low end of its tracking, poor reviews and the seemingly reheated premise not doing it any favors.

 

1. Green Arrow - $53,569,422 (3-day) / $65,461,834 (4-day)

2. Lumberjanes: Secret of the Eye - $23,026,333 (3-day) / $30,152,983 (4-day) (-44.6%)
3. Double Chronomance - $16,906,656 (3-day) / $20,981,160 (4-day)
4. Mass Effect: Ascension - $13,014,156 (-49.2%)
5. Children of Eden - $2,107,602 (-40.4%)
6. Facepaint - $2,044,980 (-58.2%)
7. The Thin, the Phat and the Felon - $1,648,043 (-47.8%)
8. Nights into Dreams - $570,597 (-58.7%)
9. Jane and Tony - $561,095 (-48.9%)
10. Brickleberry: Armoogeddon - $421,861 (-71.4%)
 

Edited by Xillix
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7 minutes ago, Xillix said:

May 6-8

Mass Effect Sequel Ascends, But Not as High as Projected

, and considering the very reasonable $95 million production budget, this is already looking like a winner. 


 

 

You're missing $80 million there

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May PTAs

 

Mass Effect: Ascension - $27,221

Green Arrow - $13,188 (3-day)/$16,116 (4-day)

Lumberjanes: Secret of the Eye - $11,081

Facepaint - $4,676

Double Chronomance - $4,495 (3-day)/$5,579 (4-day)

Brickleberry: Armoogeddon - $1,390

 

Weekend Totals

 

May 6-8: $151,025,681 (+94.9%)

May 13-15: $96,041,482 (-36.4%)

May 20-22: $83,902,164 (-12.6%)

May 27-29: $113,870,745 (+35.7%)

Edited by Rorschach
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I'm kind of expecting Teyonnah to bomb - it's gonna be too out there for the GA and needed strong reviews to soar, which it doesn't really have. Forgiveness has a lot more box office potential, thankfully.

 

It'll be interesting to see how June plays out, seeing how overall weak it is.

 

 

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