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Xillix

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1 minute ago, Spaghetti said:

I'm kind of expecting Teyonnah to bomb - it's gonna be too out there for the GA and needed strong reviews to soar, which it doesn't really have. Forgiveness has a lot more box office potential, thankfully.

 

It'll be interesting to see how June plays out, seeing how overall weak it is.

I can see Green Arrow remaining number one for the first two weekends of June. Its second weekend will more than likely be higher than Pikmin's opening number and Teyonnah just screams "huge flop" to me – I feel its wide opening will be closer to $5 million than $10 million.

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MONTHLY PREVIEW - JUNE

Yikes. It doesn't exactly seem like summer box office will be sizzling in the final month of Q2, with a pretty barren release slate consisting largely of titles that have niche appeal at best. Expect a slow boil leading into a somewhat more promising July.

 

June 3 - Pikmin - 2,950 theaters

Another video-game-based animated film hopes to scrounge up some family cash.

 

Pros:
+The source game is likely better-remembered among current audiences than Nights into Dreams.

+Reviews have been kind, if not overwhelmingly positive.

 

Cons:

-Lumberjanes just opened two weeks ago and will still be going strong.

-Stop-motion animated films, for whatever reason, have a relatively dour history at the box office.

-Previews and critical evaluations make it clear this is almost more of an art film than traditional family fare and may hold limited appeal for kids.

 

Tracking: $20-24 million

 

June 10 - Teyonnah and the Renegades: A Righteous Sextet - 2,611 theaters

This socially-conscious anthology film will expand into wide release after a brief 15 theater rollout on the 3rd.

 

Pros:

+It has no competition.

 

Cons:

-Reviews are mixed.

-The movie seems blunt and preachy and will likely turn off a large swath of audiences.

-Anthology films tend not to set the box office on fire.

 

Tracking: $8-10 million

 

June 17 - The App: The Jeremy Renner App - The Movie - 3,468 theaters

This bizarre meta-comedy hopes to connect with audiences over Father's Day weekend.

 

Pros:
+Reviews aren't as bad as one might expect given the title and concept.

+Jeremy Renner is a recognizable star, though he's not actually the lead actor.

 

Cons:

-Renner has become somewhat more controversial recently thanks to accusations about his personal life.

-This seems like another movie that could have inflated online tracking metrics from dedicated fans and ironic shitposters.

-These sorts of films don't often hold especially well.

 

Tracking: $12-14 million

 

June 17 - USS SeaWolf - 3,511 theaters (including IMAX)

Likely to be the top opener of the month is this military-themed action-drama from Numerator.

 

Pros:

+The studio has a solid track record with similar films.

+A strong ensemble cast led by Matt Damon could lure audiences in.

+Reviews are very good.

 

Cons:

-For whatever reason, submarine-themed films tend to under-perform among military thrillers - for example, U-571 and Phantom. You need to go back to the 90s to find hits Crimson Tide and The Hunt for Red October.
-Because it's not quite a big flashy blockbuster, this film might wind up relying more on legs than a big opening weekend.

 

Tracking: $43-47 million

June 24 - Forgiveness - 3,289 theaters

This student loan crime thriller hopes to generate a high interest rate with adult audiences.

 

Pros:
+Reviews are good (but not great).

+The strong female ensemble could position it as a counterpoint to fellow thriller SeaWolf.
 

Cons:
-Who really wants to go to the movies to be reminded about their college debt?

-Like SeaWolf, and probably to a greater extent, this seems like a movie that will need to rely on legs from good word-of-mouth.

 

Tracking: $19-23 million

 

June 24 - Rhino Riders - 3,050 theaters

The animal-sports movie will aim to satisfy families looking for live-action summer fare.

 

Pros:
+Family sports movies are generally somewhat reliable.

+The unorthodox choice of setting and animal could boost interest among young males.

+At least one kid is apparently really, really excited about rhinos.

 

Cons:

-This might just be a bit too weird to achieve the same success as a more traditional film of its subgenre.

-He-Man will make a play for young male audiences the following weekend.

 

Tracking: $19-23 million

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June 3-5

Green Arrow Repeats Over Tiny Seedlings

Pikmin was too weird and not kid-friendly enough to draw in big family audiences, opening well below projections at $14.4 million. Blame the lack of jokes or dialogue, the languid pace, and the stop-motion animation. Teyonnah and the Renegades made it into the top ten in just 15 theaters with a PTA of $39,469 for the weekend.

 

1. Green Arrow - $24,963,351 (-53.4%)
2. Pikmin - $14,448,889

3. Lumberjanes: Secret of the Eye - $12,986,852 (-43.6%)
4. Double Chronomance - $8,842,181 (-47.7%)
5. Mass Effect: Ascension - $7,183,814 (-44.8%)
6. Children of Eden - $1,357,295 (-35.6%)
7. Facepaint - $977,501 (-52.2%)
8. The Thin, the Phat and the Felon - $927,848 (-43.7%)
9. Teyonnah and the Renegades: A Righteous Sextet - $592,035

10. Jane and Tony - $278,303 (-50.4%)

June 10-12

Teyonnah Bombs on Awful Weekend

The sole new wide release was the expansion of Teyonnah and the Renegades, which crashed and burned on its wide rollout with a $6.3 million debut for the anthology feature. Even on a modest $25 million budget it's looking pretty bad. This was good news for the holdovers, but overall weekend business was still in a major slump.

 

1. Green Arrow - $15,127,790 (-39.4%)
2. Lumberjanes: Secret of the Eye - $8,610,283 (-33.7%)
3. Pikmin - $8,337,009 (-42.3%)
4. Teyonnah and the Renegades: A Righteous Sextet - $6,327,461 (+968.8%)
5. Double Chronomance - $5,287,624 (-40.2%)
6. Mass Effect: Ascension - $3,900,811 (-45.7%)
7. Children of Eden - $902,601 (-33.5%)
8. The Thin, the Phat and the Felon - $501,966 (-45.9%)
9. Facepaint - $486,795 (-50.2%)
10. Jane and Tony - $151,119 (-45.7%)

June 17-19

SeaWolf Stays Afloat, But Doesn't Break the Surface

USS SeaWolf was far and away the winner of the weekend - and at this point almost certainly the month - but it did open a touch under tracking with $40.6 million. Expect it to hold fairly well thanks to strong reviews and adult audience appeal. Jeremy Renner's bizarre app movie opened to $10.6 million, also a bit under tracking, and is much less likely to have staying power.

 

1. USS SeaWolf - $40,567,084

2. The App: The Jeremy Renner App - The Movie - $10,645,253

3. Green Arrow - $6,883,145 (-54.5%)
4. Lumberjanes: Secret of the Eye - $5,811,941 (-32.5%)
5. Pikmin - $4,985,531 (-40.2%)
6. Double Chronomance - $3,236,026 (-38.8%)
7. Teyonnah and the Renegades: A Righteous Sextet - $2,948,597 (-53.4%)
8. Mass Effect: Ascension - $1,985,513 (-49.1%)
9. Children of Eden - $707,640 (-21.6%)
10. The Thin, the Phat and the Felon - $259,516 (-48.3%)

June 24-26

Rhinos Race Past Fraudsters, But SeaWolf Floats by Both

Rhino Riders opened right in line with tracking at about $21 million; the lack of viable options for young boys since Mario seems to have helped offset poor reviews and the odd concept. Forgiveness opened below projections with $17.2 million. A female-led ensemble student loan drama doesn't exactly scream "opening weekend smash," though, so all eyes will be on its holds throughout the coming weeks. USS SeaWolf held pretty well, dropping under 44% in its second weekend for $22.8 million and a first place repeat.

 

1. USS SeaWolf - $22,839,268 (-43.7%)
2. Rhino Riders - $20,975,651

3. Forgiveness - $17,247,208

4. The App: The Jeremy Renner App - The Movie - $4,226,165 (-60.3%)
5. Green Arrow - $3,820,145 (-44.5%)
6. Lumberjanes: Secret of the Eye - $3,801,009 (-35.6%)

7. Pikmin - $2,323,258 (-53.4%)
8. Double Chronomance - $1,899,547 (-41.3%)
9. Teyonnah and the Renegades: A Righteous Sextet - $1,598,139 (-45.8%)
10. Mass Effect: Ascension - $1,080,119 (-45.6%)
 

Edited by Xillix
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June PTAs

 

Teyonnah and the Renegades: A Righteous Sextet - $39,469 (limited ow)

U.S.S. Seawolf - $11,554

Rhino Riders - $6,877

Forgiveness - $5,244 

Pikmin - $4,898

The App: The Jeremy Renner App - The Movie - $3,070

Teyonnah and the Renegades: A Righteous Sextet - $2,423 (wide ow)

 

Weekend Totals

 

June 3-5: $72,558,069 (-36.3%)

June 10-12: $49,183,459 (-32.2%)

June 17-19: $78,030,246 (+58.9%)

June 24-26: $79,810,509 (+2.3%)

 

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MONTHLY PREVIEW - JULY

Summer looks to heat back up a bit this month with a few big titles and some potential sleeper hits.

 

June 30 - Bummer Camp - 3,736 theaters

Getting a jump on the holiday weekend is this seasonal Adam Sandler comedy.

 

PROS:
+Adam Sandler, inexplicably, still has a dedicated fanbase.

+It's been about a month since the last adult-oriented comedy.

 

CONS:
-Sandler doesn't have nearly the box office power he used to in the late 90s or early 2000s.
-Reviews are (predictably) very bad.

 

Tracking: $20-22 million (3-day)

July 1 - He-Man IV: The Sons of the Serpent - 4,010 theaters (Including IMAX)

The fourth film in the franchise will pick up right where the third left off and - according to ads, at least - conclude the series.

 

PROS:
+The prime release date, exceptionally weak June, and finale factor will hope to contribute to an OW boost.

+The series has been a pretty consistent performer at the box office and in its (admittedly mediocre) reviews.

+A bit of tongue-in-cheek cross-promotion with Plus One could help.

 

CONS:
-The film is the worst-reviewed of the series, albeit by a small margin.

-The finale factor - and relative strength of July compared to June - could lead to harsher-than-expected drops.

-It faces more or less direct competition in week three from God of War.

 

Tracking: $67-73 million (3-day)

July 8 - Plus One - 3,863 theaters

This romantic comedy hopes to offer very strong summer counter-programming.

 

PROS:
+Reviews are excellent.

+It's been a very long time since there was a really big rom-com hit.

+A bit of tongue-in-cheek cross-promotion with He-Man IV could help.

 

CONS:

-Do romantic comedies have the drawing power they used to?

 

Tracking: $38-$43 million

 

July 15 - The Academy - 2,781 theaters

This centuries-spanning sci-fi flick looks like a misfire in the making.

 

PROS:

+There hasn't been a straight sci-fi film since Mass Effect 2.

 

CONS:
-Reviews are quite poor.

-It's opening in the strongest section of summer.

-The focus on drama over action limits its blockbuster potential severely.

 

Tracking: $12-14 million

 

July 15 - God of War: Kingdom Come - 4,205 theaters

The third and allegedly final chapter in the R-rated, video-game based fantasy action series will be fighting to maintain audience interest.

 

PROS:
+The R rating could help set it apart somewhat from He-Man IV.

+Like He-Man IV, ads are touting this as the final chapter and hoping to boost the opening.

 

CONS:
-It's the worst-reviewed in a series that hasn't exactly been heaped upon with praise.

-The second film already showed a sharp decline in box office returns from the first, suggesting audiences aren't especially enthralled.

-Opening two weeks after fellow action-fantasy He-Man IV was a bizarre decision that may hurt it.

 

Tracking: $46-50 million

 

July 22 - Borrasca - 3,602 theaters (Including IMAX)

This grim mystery-thriller hopes to lure audiences into its trap.

 

PROS:
+It's one of the best-reviewed films of the year.

+It's been a long time since there was a really solid thriller.

+Marketing may lure in under-served horror audiences as well, though they might leave disappointed.

 

CONS:

-Being an adaptation of a relatively obscure online novella rather than a bestselling book limits it fanbase.

-Could the controversial ending hurt word of mouth?

 

Tracking: $42-46 million

 

July 22 - Hoops 2 - 2,879 theaters

This basketball sequel is going in for the slam dunk.

 

PROS:
+It's a much more grounded movie than Rhino Riders.

 

CONS:
-Reviews are poor.

-The first film wasn't a big hit or especially memorable; does anyone actually care about a sequel?

 

Tracking: $9-11 million

 

July 29 - De Blob - 3,912 theaters

Yet another in the string of video game adaptations aimed at family audiences.

 

PROS:
+Reviews are decent.

+The colorful visuals and broadly uplifting premise could help family appeal.

+It's the first animated kids' movie since Pikmin and the first with mainstream appeal since Lumberjanes.

 

CONS:
-The source material is relatively obscure and unlikely to provide much of a fan boost.

 

Tracking: $42-46 million

 

Platform Release - Yolanda Dreams of Yogurt

Opening in just four theaters on the first and expanding throughout the month is this documentary about a small business owner and her creamy treats. It'll be interesting to see if it can maintain enough interest to justify its slow, wide roll-out.

 

Note: Actuals will not be posted until tomorrow.

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July 1-4 (4-day Independence Day Weekend)

He-Man Has More Power in Fourth Bow

He-Man IV: The Sons of the Serpent opened to $76 million for the 3-day weekend, a new high for the franchise and a bit above where tracking had it. The Friday-through-Monday performance was frontloaded, though, suggesting poor holds ahead. Bummer Camp managed nearly $29 million across its five-day rollout, but fell just short of tracking in the three-day frame with $19.1 million. In limited release in just four theaters, Yolanda Dreams of Yogurt earned $68,456 over three days for a $17,114 per-theater average.

 

1. He-Man IV: The Sons of the Serpent - $76,006,119 (3-day) / $88,623,135 (4-day)

2. Bummer Camp - $19,110,238 (3-day) / $28,875,570 (5-day Thu-Mon)

3. USS SeaWolf - $13,772,079 (-39.7%)

4. Rhino Riders - $12,753,196 (3-day) (-39.2%) / $15,895,899 (4-day)

5. Forgiveness - $10,538,044 (3-day) (-38.9%) / $13,046,098 (4-day)

6. Lumberjanes: Secret of the Eye - $2,379,432 (-37.4%)

7. Green Arrow - $1,829,850 (-52.1%)

8. The App: The Jeremy Renner App - The Movie - $1,576,360 (-62.7%)

9. Double Chronomance - $1,075,144 (-43.4%)
10. Pikmin - $1,029,203 (-55.7%)

-. Yolanda Dreams of Yogurt - $68,456

 

July 8-10

He-Man Stumbles Mightily, But Lance Garrett Still on Top

Plus One opened on the low end of tracking with $38.7 million, but perhaps the bigger story is the major drop suffered by He-Man IV. Fans clearly rushed out to see the supposed final chapter over Independence Day weekend and weren't compelled by what the saw to bother returning; word-of-mouth for this one isn't great.

 

1. Plus One - $38,666,296

2. He-Man IV: The Sons of the Serpent - $27,058,178 (-64.4%)
3. Bummer Camp - $10,204,867 (-46.6%)

4. USS SeaWolf - $8,841,675 (-35.8%)
5. Rhino Riders - $7,932,488 (-37.8%)
6. Forgiveness - $6,660,044 (-36.8%)
7. Lumberjanes: Secret of the Eye - $1,315,826 (-44.7%)
8. Green Arrow - $1,017,396 (-44.4%)
9. The App: The Jeremy Renner App - The Movie - $621,086 (-60.6%)
10. Pikmin - $490,930 (-52.3%)

-. Yolanda Dreams of Yogurt - $144,150 (+110.6%)

July 15-17

Kratos Bleeds Out, the Academy Loses Its Endowment

God of War: Kingdom Come opened to a series-low $37.9 million, well below tracking and off 17.2% from its predecessor's debut. Tracking had this one performing about the same as the second installment, but was likely affected by fanboy hype for the finale; general audiences didn't bother to show up this time around. That means some harsh drops are likely in its future as well, and the $170 million production will need to do very well overseas to turn a profit. The Academy opened in line with the higher end of tracking at $13.9 million, also a poor start for the $60 million sci-fi flick.

 

1. God of War: Kingdom Come - $37,931,774

2. Plus One - $23,277,110 (-39.8%)
3. The Academy - $13,878,627

4. He-Man IV: The Sons of the Serpent - $12,338,529 (-54.4%)
5. USS SeaWolf - $5,640,988 (-36.2%)
6. Rhino Riders - $4,838,818 (-39%)
7. Bummer Camp - $4,194,200 (-58.9%)
8. Forgiveness - $4,009,346 (-39.8%)
9. Lumberjanes: Secret of the Eye - $786,864 (-40.2%)
10. Green Arrow - $407,976 (-59.9%)
-. Yolanda Dreams of Yogurt - $395,076 (+174.1%)

July 22-24

Borrasca Digs Up First Place, Hoops 2 Shoots and Misses

Mystery-thriller Borrasca was a bit short of highly optimistic tracking at $39.4 million for the weekend, but that number is still excellent for the genre and positive word of mouth means it could hold very well. Hoops 2 predictably opened lower than its predecessor with $7.7 million, though for some reason tracking for the pointless sequel hadn't suggested this. God of War 3 tumbled 60.6%, a worse drop than the second film's but at least not as bad as He-Man IV.

 

1. Borrasca - $39,424,431

2. God of War: Kingdom Come - $14,945,119 (-60.6%)
3. Plus One - $13,919,712 (-40.2%)
4. Hoops 2 - $7,682,970

5. He-Man IV: The Sons of the Serpent - $5,885,478 (-52.3%)
6. The Academy - $5,593,087 (-59.7%)
7. USS SeaWolf - $3,480,490 (-38.3%)
8. Rhino Riders - $2,850,064 (-41.1%)
9. Forgiveness - $2,132,972 (-46.8%)
10. Bummer Camp - $1,623,156 (-61.3%)
-. Yolanda Dreams of Yogurt - $879,900 (+122.7%)
 

July 29-31

Blob Bounces to Top

Animated family film De Blob opened with $40.1 million, coming in just under tracking but performing quite solidly given the obscurity of the source material. It can likely thank the sorry state of the family film scene this summer for that. Borrasca had a phenomenal hold and made $28.2 million in its second weekend; apparently that ending isn't driving people away via word-of-mouth. Finally expanding into wide release, Yolanda Dreams of Yogurt barely made it into the top ten with $1.2 million from 1,249 theaters.

 

1. De Blob - $40,096,802

2. Borrasca - $28,188,468 (-28.5%)
3. Plus One - $8,922,535 (-35.9%)
4. God of War: Kingdom Come - $7,233,438 (-51.6%)
5. Hoops 2 - $4,471,489 (-41.8%)

6. He-Man IV: The Sons of the Serpent - $3,007,480 (-48.9%)
7. USS SeaWolf - $2,279,721 (-34.5%)
8. The Academy - $1,739,450 (-68.9%)
9. Rhino Riders - $1,464,933 (-48.6%)
10. Yolanda Dreams of Yogurt - $1,246,502 (+41.7%)

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July PTAs

 

He-Man IV: The Sons of the Serpent - $18,954 (3-Day only)

Yolanda Dreams of Yogurt - $17,114 (limited release)

Borrasca - $10,945

De Blob - $10,250

Plus One - $10,009

God of War: Kingdom Come - $9,021

Yolanda Dreams of Yogurt - $5,776 (limited expansion #1)

Bummer Camp - $5,115

The Academy - $4,991

Yolanda Dreams of Yogurt - $2,993 (limited expansion #2)

Hoops 2 - $2,669

Yolanda Dreams of Yogurt - $1,676 (limited expansion #3)

Yolanda Dreams of Yogurt - $998 (wide expansion)

 

Weekend Totals

 

July 1-3: $140,069,665 (+75.5%)

July 8-10: $102,808,786 (-26.6%)

July 15-17: $107,304,232 (+4.4%)

July 22-24: $97,537,479 (-9.1%)

July 29-31: $98,650,818 (+1.1%)

 

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August 5-7

Tommy Just Misses High Score

It was an extremely close race for #1 this weekend, but De Blob held just well enough to bounce ahead of the rock opera Tommy, which opened in line with tracking at $23.3 million. There was clearly a limited audience for this remake of the bizarre classic rock epic. Borrasca posted another great hold, albeit not as great as last weekend's - we're not looking at a Sixth Sense run here. Outside the top ten, foreign drama Schadenfreude debuted with $524,475 from 37 theaters, for a $14,175 per-theater average.

 

1. De Blob - $23,576,920 (-41.2%)
2. Tommy - $23,314,386

3. Borrasca - $17,561,416 (-37.7%)
4. Plus One - $5,549,817 (-37.8%)
5. God of War: Kingdom Come - $3,414,183 (-52.8%)
6. Hoops 2 - $2,745,494 (-38.6%)
7. USS SeaWolf - $1,488,658 (-34.7%)
8. He-Man IV: The Sons of the Serpent - $1,467,650 (-51.2%)
9. The Academy - $857,549 (-50.7%)
10. Rhino Riders - $716,352 (-51.1%)
-. Schadenfreude - $524,475

 

August 12-14

Ancient Magus Proves Cursed at the Box Office

Though it still easily topped the charts, the manga adaptation The Ancient Magus' Bride & the King of Cats opened well below projections with $21.5 million. To those unfamiliar with the source material - i.e., the vast majority of American audiences - it looked like a more fantasy-tinged Twilight also-ran, raising similar and perhaps more intense questions on the agency of its female lead and depiction of gender relations and romance. It did at least outperform such Twilight cash-ins as Beautiful Creatures and The Host. In #5, horror sequel 3:38 AM opened with slightly less than its predecessor at $6.3 million; expect it to fall off the charts quickly. Schadenfreude expanded into 238 theaters and broke into the top ten.

 

1. The Ancient Magus' Bride & the King of Cats - $21,522,397

2. De Blob - $14,759,152 (-37.4%)
3. Tommy - $12,543,140 (-46.2%)
4. Borrasca - $11,239,306 (-36%)
5. 3:38 AM - $6,277,885

6. Plus One - $3,346,540 (-39.7%)
7. Schadenfreude - $1,970,640 (+275.7%)
8. God of War: Kingdom Come - $1,713,920 (-49.8%)
9. Hoops 2 - $1,411,184 (-47.6%)
10. USS SeaWolf - $917,013 (-38.4%)

August 19-21

Hired Guns' Aim Is True

Western film Hired Guns opened in line with tracking at $32.6 million, taking a wide lead at the box office. Given the questionable popularity of Westerns in the current marketplace, this is a very good result. Nature documentary Wolves had a typical performance for its breed, while Schadenfreude expanded into wide release in 791 theaters.

 

1. Hired Guns - $32,587,686

2. The Ancient Magus' Bride & the King of Cats - $10,287,706 (-52.2%)
3. De Blob - $9,180,192 (-37.8%)
4. Wolves - $6,739,869

5. Borrasca - $6,721,105 (-40.2%)
6. Tommy - $6,334,286 (-49.5%)
7. Schadenfreude - $3,285,023 (+66.7%)
8. 3:38 AM - $2,536,266 (-59.6%)
9. Plus One - $2,044,736 (-38.9%)
10. Hoops 2 - $753,572 (-46.6%)

August 26-28

Guns Win Shoot-Out with News Cameras

The weekend's only new wide release, Broadway Selects: Network, opened somewhat softly with about $6 million. An up-to-date remake of the original film likely would have done much better - there's certainly plenty of raw material to work with in the modern, hyperpartisan 24-hour news cycle. Sports documentary The Girlfriend Hoax had a solid limited opening in 16 theaters with a $32,399 average.

 

1. Hired Guns - $16,684,895 (-48.8%)
2. Broadway Selects: Network - $5,966,797

3. De Blob - $5,590,737 (-39.1%)
4. The Ancient Magus' Bride & the King of Cats - $5,030,688 (-51.1%)
5. Borrasca - $4,314,949 (-35.8%)
6. Wolves - $3,586,610 (-46.8%)
7. Tommy - $3,369,840 (-46.8%)
8. Schadenfreude - $3,207,420 (-2.4%)
9. Plus One - $1,335,212 (-34.7%)
10. 3:38 AM - $1,095,667 (-56.8%)

-. The Girlfriend Hoax - $518,384

Edited by Xillix
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