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Jamiem

Frozen II 971m OS 1.44B WW

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With tickets going on sale today how much do you think Frozen II will make?

 

The first film was obviously a phenomenon worldwide, grossing well over $1B. The craziest market though had to be Japan we’re it had incredible legs that the home video release seemed to cut short. This will be an interesting one to watch and see if it can match or pass the original. 

Edited by Jamiem

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Albany Event Cinemas - Frozen II opening day (Thur 28/11/2019) first few hours of sale vs 3 days/12 hours to release of other films. 

 

10:00am 9/216

11:00am 9/216

12:25pm 9/216

1:25pm 9/216

2:50pm 9/216

3:50pm 9/216

5:15pm 9/216

6:00pm GC 0/30

6:15pm 14/216

7:40pm 9/216

8:00pm GC 0/40

8:40pm 9/216

 

Total 95/2230

 

*For people wondering why there is always 9 sold in the 216 showings it can’t be broken seats as they in the same location in all the theatres this I believe the seats are possibly reserved for staff not 100% though I’ve been thinking about it for a while, so still going to count them as sold seats*

 

Obviously not coming out of the gates like Star Wars or avengers but already a reasonable amount of showtimes that should increase closer to release date. In the first few hours The Rise of Skywalker sold 212 tickets so it’s a bit less than half that although that was mainly midnight showings for Star Wars.

 

Compared to 3 days/12 hours before release of other films. 

 

TLK 

 

Compared 3 days before 926/5338 (17.34%) = $524,244

Compared 12 hours before 1831/5554(32.96%) = $265,128

 

 

Hobbs and Shaw

 

Compared 3 Days Before 139/1456 (9.54%) = $1.09m

Compared 12 Hours Before 361/3560 (10.14%) = $421,053

1.6

 

Joker

 

3 Days Before 160/1536 (10.41%) = $754,063

12 Hours Before 446/2756 (16.18%) = $270,515

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I think exchange rates were much more favourable in late 2013 and early 2014 than now right? 

That bring said it's still one of the most anticipated animated films of all time so will go with $800M OS for now 

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China is the x factor. Let us see how things are once the PS opens. Japan will drop quite a bit from the last one and so will need China to make up. Few Latin American markets have their ER drop big time but the market has also expanded HUGE. So if it can pull in a TS4 in LA it will be ok. I hope @Purple Minion confirm if F2 can hit TS4 numbers in LA.

 

Frozen may not do much in Asia outside 3 big markets. Animation rarely do great. Europe and LA would be crucial to hold on to 1st movie numbers. I would stick to 700-750m which would still be increase when you make it Exchange rate neutral. i dont think this expands in China based on what I have seen recently.

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11 hours ago, Jamiem said:

For people wondering why there is always 9 sold in the 216 showings it can’t be broken seats as they in the same location in all the theatres this I believe the seats are possibly reserved for staff not 100% though I’ve been thinking about it for a while, so still going to count them as sold seats

In India these are seats which are sold on counter on last day only. I got Endgame ticket like that only as online it was pre-sold instantly 

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More than Japan, I wonder if it can get at least 3/4 of Frozen SK gross, because back then more than Japan it was so surprising that it break Kungfu Panda record and then nearly double it gross. As for Japan I think at least we can expect 100m. If its song also become quite a hit and they like the film. Maybe 150m. I just don't see that 250m will be replicated again, there will be no Golden Week to help it late legs too.

 

Such a shame that currency is much worse than late 2013/early2014, but i think it still can get 35 in Brazil and at least 50 in Mexico. So increase in Southeast Asia, decrease in East Asia, same or decrease a bit in Europe and increase in Latin America. 

My prediction 750 OS and 530m Dom

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2 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

In India these are seats which are sold on counter on last day only. I got Endgame ticket like that only as online it was pre-sold instantly 

That sounds like it could be possible as well, it’s always the same spots so has to be something along those lines.

 

Either way it has minimal impact on the final numbers but just makes for a larger number right out of the gate looking at the first few hours so thought I’d throw in a disclaimer.

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11 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

if F2 can hit TS4 numbers in LA.

Not a chance. The first Frozen didn't set the box office on fire (ha!) and the ER has collapsed to the point that market increase would make things even.

 

E.g. in Mexico, it did 337M lc (around $26M at Dec 2013 ER). It'd need to reach 500M lc for a similar USD gross in Dec 2019. There's no Disney Animation movie in the all-time Top 50, and TS4 did 1.3B lc as comparison.

 

Venezuela registered $12M, won't do a tenth of it with today's ER. Argentina's currency has also collapsed. Brazil could break even. So no TS4 numbers... maybe other users can provide a clearer picture in the rest of the region.

 

 

Edited by Purple Minion
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2 hours ago, Purple Minion said:

Not a chance. The first Frozen didn't set the box office on fire (ha!) and the ER has collapsed to the point that market increase would make things even.

 

E.g. in Mexico, it did 337M lc (around $26M at Dec 2013 ER). It'd need to reach 500M lc for a similar USD gross in Dec 2019. There's no Disney Animation movie in the all-time Top 50, and TS4 did 1.3B lc as comparison.

 

Venezuela registered $12M, won't do a tenth of it with today's ER. Argentina's currency has also collapsed. Brazil could break even. So no TS4 numbers... maybe other users can provide a clearer picture in the rest of the region.

 

 

THat is why I am amazed by all the predictions of increase from 1st movie with $ strength and Frozen's gross dominated by few big markets.

 

@peludo I know you are among the bulls and so can you break down how F2 makes 1B OS? Asia it will not do much outside few markets, I am not sensing big china break out and Latin America also dont look at Pixar level. So it needs ginormous TLK or better Europe/Aus number with increase in Korea and maintain Japan gross which is improbable.

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2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

THat is why I am amazed by all the predictions of increase from 1st movie with $ strength and Frozen's gross dominated by few big markets.

 

@peludo I know you are among the bulls and so can you break down how F2 makes 1B OS? Asia it will not do much outside few markets, I am not sensing big china break out and Latin America also dont look at Pixar level. So it needs ginormous TLK or better Europe/Aus number with increase in Korea and maintain Japan gross which is improbable.

I think I have commited a couple of mistakes with this film. First of all, and what annoys me the most, is to not have had into account the worse XRs relative to 2013, even more when I have always looked at it carefully (I even started a thread about it some years ago).

 

The other one is to have asumed that the film could have the same room of growth than here, in Spain. The first movie was adored here. But it just did €16m (in 2013 we still were in a huge crisis. The biggest film of that year did just €17m). But taking into account that I think the film is maybe the most influential animated film here since TLK, I have always thought this sequel can explode here. And I have always felt the same beloving everywhere, so I had always thought that this sequel could explode, specially in Europe.

 

But I have to agree that to repeat SK and Japan numbers seems a chimera. Let me make some numbers and I will try to adjust my predictions.

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8 minutes ago, peludo said:

I think I have commited a couple of mistakes with this film. First of all, and what annoys me the most, is to not have had into account the worse XRs relative to 2013, even more when I have always looked at it carefully (I even started a thread about it some years ago).

 

The other one is to have asumed that the film could have the same room of growth than here, in Spain. The first movie was adored here. But it just did €16m (in 2013 we still were in a huge crisis. The biggest film of that year did just €17m). But taking into account that I think the film is maybe the most influential animated film here since TLK, I have always thought this sequel can explode here. And I have always felt the same beloving everywhere, so I had always thought that this sequel could explode, specially in Europe.

 

But I have to agree that to repeat SK and Japan numbers seems a chimera. Let me make some numbers and I will try to adjust my predictions.

Thank you Peludo. I am not criticizing you. Just was curious as you are among the most sane posters around with great prognosticating skills.

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4 hours ago, Purple Minion said:

Not a chance. The first Frozen didn't set the box office on fire (ha!) and the ER has collapsed to the point that market increase would make things even.

 

E.g. in Mexico, it did 337M lc (around $26M at Dec 2013 ER). It'd need to reach 500M lc for a similar USD gross in Dec 2019. There's no Disney Animation movie in the all-time Top 50, and TS4 did 1.3B lc as comparison.

 

Venezuela registered $12M, won't do a tenth of it with today's ER. Argentina's currency has also collapsed. Brazil could break even. So no TS4 numbers... maybe other users can provide a clearer picture in the rest of the region.

 

 

In uruguay TS4 was the highest grossing movie in the last 10 years, and Frozen will be released on December 5th, NOBODY goes to the cinema in summer, the last week of december is dead

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More data: Frozen did about 95M in Latin America: 27% Mexico, 23% Brazil, 13% Venezuela, 12% Argentina. With the ER shenanigans, Frozen II should aim for a 75-80M total in the region; anything over that should be a great achievement.

 

Spoiler

TS4 did 72M just in Mexico alone. 

 

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I remember you some key points:

 

- In 2013 Frozen was barely knows and not so well marketed.

 

- The only market in which Frozen opened after its real explosion (1B WW, two oscars, Let It Go hipe, toys and other items soldout everywhere) was Japan, and we know well that happened there.

 

- In 2014 The Frozen soundtrack was the best selling album worldwide, and speaking of Home Video, the best selling movie ever in BR and digital download.

 

- Now Frozen is the #1 animation brand worldwide in term of merchandise (more and more and more strong than TLK or Toy Story or Incredibles or whatever Disney properties you can imagine), so the marketing budgets are immensely higher than 2013. Especially in new and growing markets.

 

Spoiler

In fact, if you try to look for news on Frozen II, those regarding new products for sale are more than those regarding the movie in itself.

 

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2 hours ago, edroger3 said:

I remember you some key points:

 

- In 2013 Frozen was barely knows and not so well marketed.

 

- The only market in which Frozen opened after its real explosion (1B WW, two oscars, Let It Go hipe, toys and other items soldout everywhere) was Japan, and we know well that happened there.

 

- In 2014 The Frozen soundtrack was the best selling album worldwide, and speaking of Home Video, the best selling movie ever in BR and digital download.

 

- Now Frozen is the #1 animation brand worldwide in term of merchandise (more and more and more strong than TLK or Toy Story or Incredibles or whatever Disney properties you can imagine), so the marketing budgets are immensely higher than 2013. Especially in new and growing markets.

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Good points. So what does that tell you. Are you predicting Toy Story 4 numbers in Latin America? Lion King numbers in Europe?

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