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Frozen II 971m OS 1.44B WW

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Think we are missing top 10, bummer. With ERs it’s not as bad as it looks, but DOM is underwhelming. 

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1 minute ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Think we are missing top 10, bummer. With ERs it’s not as bad as it looks, but DOM is underwhelming. 

I dont care much about DOM. I care about the OS more... :(

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8 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Think we are missing top 10, bummer. With ERs it’s not as bad as it looks, but DOM is underwhelming. 

yeah  i mean 400-450 is bummer, its not like most people predicted in that range

 

 

ps it will make 1,3-1,4 billion for an animated movie, thats fantastic

Edited by john2000
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On 12/7/2019 at 4:02 PM, Jedi Jat said:

$920-925mn.

  WW Dom CH OS-CH
 W1   $ 358,20  $ 130,30  $  53,38  $ 174,52
 W2   $ 383,90  $ 158,58  $  37,69  $ 187,63
 W3   $ 177,39  $  48,75  $  16,00  $ 112,64
 Tot   $ 919,49  $ 337,63  $ 107,07  $ 474,79

 

With actuals will be 922,5 so best estimate ever! 

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I'm fine with these numbers, it'll still beat Frozen 1 despite the terrible ERs worldwide. It's all good :)

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50 minutes ago, Purple Minion said:

 

WEEK/WEEK IN EURO AREA (VERY DIFFERENT NUMBERS)

 

UK -50

GERMANY -25

FRANCE -40

RUSSIA -30

ITALY -35

SPAIN - 17

 

OVERALL OS-CH-SK-JAP -38 

 

Japan and Holidays (+ new markets in play) will make the difference between like-F1 numbers and near-TLK numbers. 

 

Obviously we would see how the competition will work, mostly local movies. As for blockbusters I think J3 and SW9 will be bad/very bad OS, Little Women could be more dangerous cause similar audience, even if it opens on Christmas and at that time F2 could be .... ☠️

Edited by edroger3
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57 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

I'm fine with these numbers, it'll still beat Frozen 1 despite the terrible ERs worldwide. It's all good :)

This. sequel beating the previous movie is always a good thing. 

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F2 added South Africa this weekend where $800K gave Disney its best animated opening ever. Elsewhere, there were continued No. 1s in Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Russia, Spain, Switzerland, UAE, UK, Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, Philippines, Australia, New Zealand and every territory released in Latin America. Brazil does not release until January 2.

In holds, the grip is tight. Overall, the drop was 47% overseas. The best holds included Poland (-13%), Spain (-18%), Chile (-22%), Germany (-25%), Israel (-25%), Netherlands (-30%), Japan (-30%), France (-40%), Hong Kong (-43%), Australia (-44%), Korea (-47%), Mexico (-47%), Italy (-48%) and Taiwan (-49%).

Frozen 2 has already become the highest grossing animated title of all time in Korea, Indonesia,Philippines, Malaysia and Thailand as well as the 2nd highest grossing animated title of all time in India and Ukraine.

The movie has further surpassed the original in Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, Taiwan, Malaysia, Singapore, Korea, Mexico, Vietnam, India, China, Poland, Hong Kong, Russia, Peru, Central America, Colombia, Ecuador, Albania, Bosnia/Herz, Croatia, Czech Rep, Egypt, Ethiopia, Hungary, Israel, Kuwait, Macedonia, Oman, Qatar, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Syria, Turkey, UAE and Ukraine.

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Some comparison F1 vs F2 (estimates)

 

Asia -Japan  F1 176 - F2 263 

 

Europa + Russia (markets in play) F1 293 - F2 211 (256 with F1 ER)

 

Others (markets in play) F1 112 - F2 56

 

Japan ............

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F1+F2 ww will be at par with SW8+SW9 ww, maybe better. Amazing for an original animated franchise about 2 sister princesses.

 

DM2, Minions, DM3 averaging 1056 without big standard deviation is also damn creditable (975, 1160, 1035).

Edited by a2k
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5 hours ago, Purple Minion said:

 

Whoa! It actually made more than Jumanji 2 on its 3rd weekend in the Philippines. Its a pity it wont benefit from the Christmas Breaks.

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6 hours ago, Purple Minion said:

 

 

Those 11 will add another $180 - $200m before their run ends. The other OS countries will add about half that amount. OS should finish somewhere between $850 - $900m.  

 

EDIT: I forgot that some markets still haven't opened. My number is for markets that it's already out in. 

 

Edited by VenomXXR

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7 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Those 11 will add another $180 - $200m before their run ends. The other OS countries will add about half that amount. OS should finish somewhere between $850 - $900m.  

 

I would say 900-950 as brazil still has to some along with some others

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19 minutes ago, john2000 said:

I would say 900-950 as brazil still has to some along with some others


Forgot about that. Good catch :)

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On 12/1/2019 at 9:45 PM, Arendelle Legion said:

Unopened markets and F1 performance in USD (all numbers from Mojo for convenience, so probably not quite right due to ERs):

 

Brazil 21.74M 

 

Denmark   7.76M
Finland   2.51M
Lithuania   .58M
Latvia   N/A
Norway   7.53M
Sweden   9.74M
Estonia   N/A
Argentina   11.55M
   

 

Total of 61M or so. However Argentina ER has collapsed, and I’m not sure to what extent local inflation cancels that atm. Using 2 instead for Argentina they would have been about 52M/864M= ~6% of F1 OS. 

 

Re: unopened markets      
 

Crude estimation but they should be good for maybe 50-60M is rest do ballpark 900.   
 

Venom’s 180-200 from top 11 current markets seems a bit conservative to me, just the top 3 can reasonably be 140+ thanks to how movies perform in Japan. Other 8 had a 48M week or so, so they should add 50-75ish.      
 

Maybe 920-980 in my books, but Verrows club still looking dire.
 

 

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1 hour ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Re: unopened markets      
 

Crude estimation but they should be good for maybe 50-60M is rest do ballpark 900.   
 

Venom’s 180-200 from top 11 current markets seems a bit conservative to me, just the top 3 can reasonably be 140+ thanks to how movies perform in Japan. Other 8 had a 48M week or so, so they should add 50-75ish.      
 

Maybe 920-980 in my books, but Verrows club still looking dire.
 

 

If this will do just $900M OS and $420M dom, then that will be $1.32B ww, barely above F1. Which is quite unfortunate. I'm expecting at least $1.4B.

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9 hours ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Think we are missing top 10, bummer. With ERs it’s not as bad as it looks, but DOM is underwhelming. 


Ultron WW still seems possible to me.

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1 minute ago, KP1025 said:


Ultron WW still seems possible to me.

Yeah, took a closer look later and my average case scenario was just 20M short. 80% range obviously wider than that, so fingers crossed.       
 

If it makes top 10 could stay for like 2 years potentially.

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1 hour ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Venom’s 180-200 from top 11 current markets seems a bit conservative to me, just the top 3 can reasonably be 140+ thanks to how movies perform in Japan. Other 8 had a 48M week or so, so they should add 50-75ish.      
 

 

China looks to be doing better than I had in my head. Still won't go much about my high end, maybe $210m for those 11. 

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