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Jamiem

Frozen II 971m OS 1.44B WW

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2 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

Crossed $600mn. Will be around $675mn Aby Sunday.

So Billion by Saturday?

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Are 450M+ in USA still possible? I really think it will hit be really hard by jumanji/star wars/spies in disguise

Edited by Mau

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8 minutes ago, Mau said:

Is 450M+ in USA still possible? 

Absolutely. 

While it's difficult to predict exactly how the two week Christmas period will go, Frozen 2 will get a nice boost from it. 

 

This is how the original Frozen performed over Christmas weekends;

 

Dec 13-15 / 22.5 million

Dec 20-22 / 19.6 million

Dec 27-29 / 28.5 million

Jan 3-5 / 19.5 million

 

Now, nobody expects the same bumps for Frozen 2 because so much of the audience has already seen it. 

However, we can except some great holds during that timeframe, and the weekdays will be very strong as well. 

Considering the total will be 365m+ after this weekend, it's more likely than not to cross 450 million. 

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Country

 F1 M$

 F2 M$

F2 vs F1

India

   0,60  

   6,66  

1110,00%

Taiwan

   1,50  

   8,62  

574,67%

Philippines

   2,69  

  14,31  

531,85%

Indonesia

   2,77  

  13,16  

475,09%

Thailand

   1,45  

   5,78  

398,62%

Vietnam

   0,88  

   2,95  

335,23%

Malaysia

   3,62  

   7,98  

220,52%

China

  48,24  

 104,40  

216,42%

HK

   2,58  

   5,53  

214,36%

Czech Rep.

   1,56  

   3,15  

201,92%

EAU

   3,14  

   4,70  

149,60%

Croatia

   0,50  

   0,68  

136,00%

Singapore

   3,84  

   4,62  

120,27%

Poland

   7,35  

   8,81  

119,85%

Ukraine

   2,87  

   3,28  

114,44%

Serbia & M.

   0,42  

   0,47  

111,90%

Romania

   2,00  

   2,01  

100,50%

South Korea

  76,70  

  75,05  

97,85%

Slovenia

   0,45  

   0,44  

97,78%

Switzerland

   4,28  

   4,13  

96,50%

Slovakia

   1,21  

   1,16  

95,87%

Iceland

   0,35  

   0,33  

94,29%

Hungary

   2,05  

   1,82  

88,82%

Usa+Can

 400,74  

 338,12  

84,37%

Mexico

  25,73  

  21,19  

82,35%

UK

  57,92  

  43,53  

75,16%

Austria

   5,29  

   3,86  

72,97%

Turkey

   4,73  

   3,43  

72,48%

Germany

  48,29  

  34,86  

72,19%

Russia

  33,44  

  23,31  

69,72%

France

  46,94  

  31,88  

67,91%

Spain

  22,49  

  14,59  

64,87%

Bulgaria

   1,40  

   0,89  

63,57%

Belgium

   7,93  

   4,94  

62,33%

Colombia

   6,27  

   3,88  

61,90%

Portugal

   3,01  

   1,82  

60,49%

Italy

  26,42  

  14,70  

55,64%

Netherl.

  10,51  

   5,37  

51,11%

Greece

   2,18  

   1,09  

50,03%

Australia

  26,70  

  11,81  

44,23%

NewZel

   4,43  

   1,89  

42,67%

SAFR

   2,66  

   0,89  

33,46%

Chile

   5,23  

   1,50  

28,66%

Japan

 249,04  

  55,27  

22,19%

Egypt

   0,70  

   0,01  

1,43%

Israel

   2,34  

   0,01  

0,43%

Ecuador

   2,48  

   0,01  

0,40%

Peru

   3,41  

   0,01  

0,29%

 

Red: F2 over F1 in admissions/local currency

0,01: No have data

Edited by edroger3
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38 minutes ago, edroger3 said:

Country

 F1 M$

 F2 M$

F2 vs F1

India

   0,60  

   6,66  

1110,00%

Taiwan

   1,50  

   8,62  

574,67%

Philippines

   2,69  

  14,31  

531,85%

Indonesia

   2,77  

  13,16  

475,09%

Thailand

   1,45  

   5,78  

398,62%

Vietnam

   0,88  

   2,95  

335,23%

Malaysia

   3,62  

   7,98  

220,52%

China

  48,24  

 104,40  

216,42%

HK

   2,58  

   5,53  

214,36%

Czech Rep.

   1,56  

   3,15  

201,92%

EAU

   3,14  

   4,70  

149,60%

Croatia

   0,50  

   0,68  

136,00%

Singapore

   3,84  

   4,62  

120,27%

Poland

   7,35  

   8,81  

119,85%

Ukraine

   2,87  

   3,28  

114,44%

Serbia & M.

   0,42  

   0,47  

111,90%

Romania

   2,00  

   2,01  

100,50%

South Korea

  76,70  

  75,05  

97,85%

Slovenia

   0,45  

   0,44  

97,78%

Switzerland

   4,28  

   4,13  

96,50%

Slovakia

   1,21  

   1,16  

95,87%

Iceland

   0,35  

   0,33  

94,29%

Hungary

   2,05  

   1,82  

88,82%

Usa+Can

 400,74  

 338,12  

84,37%

Mexico

  25,73  

  21,19  

82,35%

UK

  57,92  

  43,53  

75,16%

Austria

   5,29  

   3,86  

72,97%

Turkey

   4,73  

   3,43  

72,48%

Germany

  48,29  

  34,86  

72,19%

Russia

  33,44  

  23,31  

69,72%

France

  46,94  

  31,88  

67,91%

Spain

  22,49  

  14,59  

64,87%

Bulgaria

   1,40  

   0,89  

63,57%

Belgium

   7,93  

   4,94  

62,33%

Colombia

   6,27  

   3,88  

61,90%

Portugal

   3,01  

   1,82  

60,49%

Italy

  26,42  

  14,70  

55,64%

Netherl.

  10,51  

   5,37  

51,11%

Greece

   2,18  

   1,09  

50,03%

Australia

  26,70  

  11,81  

44,23%

NewZel

   4,43  

   1,89  

42,67%

SAFR

   2,66  

   0,89  

33,46%

Chile

   5,23  

   1,50  

28,66%

Japan

 249,04  

  55,27  

22,19%

Egypt

   0,70  

   0,01  

1,43%

Israel

   2,34  

   0,01  

0,43%

Ecuador

   2,48  

   0,01  

0,40%

Peru

   3,41  

   0,01  

0,29%

 

Red: F2 over F1 in admissions/local currency

0,01: No have data

Egypt at 400 thousands dollars till now

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Also is there any chance to get frozen: sing along (Worldwide) and could that help its late legs?

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40 minutes ago, Mau said:

Also is there any chance to get frozen: sing along (Worldwide) and could that help its late legs?

I don’t know about other countries but The sing along version will be released today on Friday at Indonesia. Not like it will add much to its gross tho.. I also remember that @titanic2187 said the version will be released in his country too. Maybe a good sign that it will be released in many markets.

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5 hours ago, Claudio said:

I don’t know about other countries but The sing along version will be released today on Friday at Indonesia. Not like it will add much to its gross tho.. I also remember that @titanic2187 said the version will be released in his country too. Maybe a good sign that it will be released in many markets.

Starting this weekend. In both dubbed & english version 

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53 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Starting this weekend. In both dubbed & english version 

Good! Where are you from?

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Hello, here is my final projections for frozen 2 box office after some analyses :

 

NA : $460M-$490M

 

Austria : $6M-$8M                               Argentina   $7M-$12M

Belgium : $6M-$9M                              Bolivia : $1M-$2M

Bulgaria : $1M-$2M                               Brazil : $25M-$35M

Croatia : $1M                                           Chile : $3M-$4M

Czech Republic : $2M-$4M                   Colombia : $4.5M-$5.5M

Denmark : $6M-$9M                              Mexico : $23M-$28M

Egypt : $0.5M-$1.5M                               Paraguay : $0.5M

Finland : $3.5M-$4M                                Uruguay : $0.5M-$1M

France : $55M-$65M                                Venezuela : $0.5M-$1M

Germany : $55M-$65M                            Total Latin America : $66M - $89M

Greece : $2M-$3M

Hungary : $2.5M-$3.5M                             Hong Kong : $6.5M-$7.5M

Iceland : $0.5M                                            India : $8M-$8.5M

Italy : $20M-$23M                                       Indonesia : $14M-$14.5M

Lithuania : $0.5M-$1M                                 Japan : $150M-$180M

Netherlands : $8M-$10M                             Malaysia : $8.5M-$9M

Norway : $6M-$8M                                       Philippines :$15.5M-$16M

Poland : $13M-$16M                                      Russia/CIS : $32M-$38M

Portugal : $3M-$3.5M                                    Singapore : $5M-$6M

Romania : $2.5M-$3M                                    South Korea : $95M-$105M

Serbia : $0.5M-$1M                                         Taiwan : $10M-$12M

Slovakia : $1M-$1.5M                                       Thailand $6M-$6.5M

Slovenia : $0.5M                                                Vietnam : $3.5M-$4M

Spain : $21M-$26M                                           Total Asia : $354M - $407M

Sweden : $7M-$11M                                                   

Switzerland : $5.5M-$6.5M                                Australia : $20M-$25M

Turkey : $4M-$4.5M                                            New Zealand : $3M-$4M

Ukraine : $4M-$4.5M                                           Total Oceania : $23M-$29M

United Kingdom : $65M-$70M                                        

Total Europe : $303M-$366M                              China : $110M-$120M

                                                                        

Nigeria : $0.5M                                                       Middle East : $6M-$8M

South Africa : $3.5-4.5M                                              

Total Africa : $4M-$5M                                     Other countries : $30M-$60M

 

Total : $1356M (min range) - $1574M (max. range) = $1465M (med. range)               

 

Please tel me your predictions or why for some countries I'm wrong for example, all of your analyses is good to complete this one 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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The low end for China is probably too low now that the extension has been announced (it's at $106m right now) and it will play until Jan. 20. Maybe $117m-$126m?

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13 minutes ago, Incarnadine said:

The low end for China is probably too low now that the extension has been announced (it's at $106m right now) and it will play until Jan. 20. Maybe $117m-$126m?

Yes maybe but this extension will give a really little boost because frozen 2 will loose a lot of screens so maybe $5M-$10M more, so maybe $120M maximum is a good prediction 

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33 minutes ago, Incarnadine said:

The low end for China is probably too low now that the extension has been announced (it's at $106m right now) and it will play until Jan. 20. Maybe $117m-$126m?

Extension will be worth very little. Probably <$5M. 112-120 or so looks right to me.

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@LPLC Concerning Spain I am expecting €25m, what today means $28m. The low end of your 21-26 is very low. I would say 25-30 million dollars.

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@LPLC The low end for belgium is way to low atm (not that it maters in the bigger picture).

F2 is at $4.9m after it 3rd weekend (doing 950k in the last week), F1 was at $2.8m with a 850k 3rd week). Frozen went on to make $7.95m in the end.

So for frozen 2 to only make $6m the whole country should go in a shutdown.

The lowest I can see it doing is 450k this week, than 900k during chrismas and 650k during NY and another 500k after that.

So the absolute lowest is probably $7.4m. Likely range is close to $9.5m giver or take a $1m.

 

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I approve the SK range, unless it holds like a champ over holidays.   
 

DOM floor is way too high though. Maybe 430.

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3 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

I approve the SK range, unless it holds like a champ over holidays.   
 

DOM floor is way too high though. Maybe 430.

430 seems very low. Even Catching Fire added 4.9x it's 4th weekend, and F2 has been consistently having better drops than that film. TROS opening will hurt a bit but F2 should also have a pretty good bump from the Christmas period. 

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4 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

I approve the SK range, unless it holds like a champ over holidays.   
 

DOM floor is way too high though. Maybe 430.

Isn't the SK range a bit to high?

The ATP atm is 7.01 USD so to get $105m it should do 15m admission and that seems a bit crazy to me.

With current ATP the admission range would be 13.55m to 15m.

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