Frozen II 971m OS 1.44B WW

[cdsacken]

It will reach 10th on the list. No chance at 9th

[keysersoze123]

So korea should hit 100m by the time the run is over, Japan should be boosted over next 2 weeks. Charlie's generally on the dot and so 900m+ OS should happen.

 

That said I dont buy 500m domestic. That is > 10x legs from this weekend gross. Even for openers that is not easy and this has already burned through 375m of gross before this weekend. it will drop "normal" post holidays like it did pre-holidays. SO what ever it grosses weekend after next it will probably do another 2.5x. I am thinking 450-460m domestic and around 1.35-1.4B WW.
"

[Legion Again]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

So korea should hit 100m by the time the run is over, Japan should be boosted over next 2 weeks. Charlie's generally on the dot and so 900m+ OS should happen.

 

That said I dont buy 500m domestic. That is > 10x legs from this weekend gross. Even for openers that is not easy and this has already burned through 375m of gross before this weekend. it will drop "normal" post holidays like it did pre-holidays. SO what ever it grosses weekend after next it will probably do another 2.5x. I am thinking 450-460m domestic and around 1.35-1.4B WW.
"

Weekend actual being about 5% above estimates should help. And having a roughly 9x multiplier from the pre-Christmas weekend is actually very typical for Disney animated fare. 475-490 or so for me.

[Fullbuster]

$1.4B WW was far from a sure thing so I welcome the fact it's now the likeliest scenario.

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Weekend actual being about 5% above estimates should help. And having a roughly 9x multiplier from the pre-Christmas weekend is actually very typical for Disney animated fare. 475-490 or so for me.

5% better would require almost 1m increase from estimates. Are you saying it will stay flat today. It should be  better than a summer sunday and should go up a bit but 5% seem too much when saturday was under 6m(Disney has estimated 18% drop). Even then doing that much considering it has burned through its audience is hard. This is a sequel after all. It will start to drop in 40% or so post holidays. There is MLK weekend but its gross would be small by valentine's weekend. Plus this is not winning best animated movie or anything and so that limits late boost.

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, Fullbuster said:

$1.4B WW was far from a sure thing so I welcome the fact it's now the likeliest scenario.

Phenomenal run for sure. Especially in OS Markets. I am most impressed by Asia where it has exploded from previous movie. Korea is still the most impressive as to increase from a phenom run it had last time was crazy. So this is at the same level as Endgame !!!!

 

Only Latin America it seems to be Tier below Top Animation movies. Toy Story is the king there(probably Minions as well though that could drop next year).

[Fullbuster]

24 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Phenomenal run for sure. Especially in OS Markets. I am most impressed by Asia where it has exploded from previous movie. Korea is still the most impressive as to increase from a phenom run it had last time was crazy. So this is at the same level as Endgame !!!!

 

Only Latin America it seems to be Tier below Top Animation movies. Toy Story is the king there(probably Minions as well though that could drop next year).

 

Pixar is a more known brand in LA, WDAS started to do well these last few years but it still has some room to grow.

As for Frozen 2 let's see how it performs in Brazil and Argentina next month, I'm pretty optimistic

[Legion Again]

40 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

5% better would require almost 1m increase from estimates. Are you saying it will stay flat today. It should be  better than a summer sunday and should go up a bit but 5% seem too much when saturday was under 6m(Disney has estimated 18% drop). Even then doing that much considering it has burned through its audience is hard. This is a sequel after all. It will start to drop in 40% or so post holidays. There is MLK weekend but its gross would be small by valentine's weekend. Plus this is not winning best animated movie or anything and so that limits late boost.

I’m thinking maybe -7% today adds 560k to est, collect a bit from an upward Friday revision and net ~600k overall=4.9%     
 

Frozen is a great fit for winter with all the snowy vibes, and I think a decent amount of family holiday viewing will be diverted from TROS to (mainly) Frozen and Jumanji. 

[Jamiem]

My little Sister in Australia is going for her birthday to see Frozen II alternative this week, I also expect with the year end holidays that many children and parents will now be able to watch the film a show plenty of time of work and school (particularly here in NZ and OZ).

[cdsacken]

Yeah I should say 11th is a lock 10th is very possible.

[edroger3]

1 hour ago, Fullbuster said:

$1.4B WW was far from a sure thing so I welcome the fact it's now the likeliest scenario.

 

SIX YEARS AGO (Sunday 22 December 2013)

Frozen added another $35.1 million from 33 territories in its fourth weekend of release. The animated film took a strong #1 opening in Mexico, where it nearly doubled the debut of Tangled with a $5.5 million bow. Italy opened to $2.9 million. The top markets for the film include Germany ($26.4M), the United Kingdom ($26.3M), France ($21.2M), Russia ($19.6M), and Spain ($12M). Frozen has grossed a total of $152.6 million overseas and $344.1 million worldwide.

 

NOW (Sunday 22 December 2019)

After crossing the $1B worldwide mark last weekend, Disney’s animated sequel added another $31.6M from 48 material offshore markets this session. The overseas cume rises above $700M to hit $717.2M to date while global is now $1,103.7M. The latter gives Elsa and Anna bragging rights to being the 4th biggest animated release of all time worldwide, having passed Despicable Me 3, Toy Story 3 and Toy Story 4. This is before openings in Scandinavia, Brazil and Argentina. Overall, the drop this session was 45% and with the holidays ahead. The Top 5 markets to date are China ($115.1M), Korea ($89.9M), Japan ($75.7M), UK ($54M) and Germany ($43.6M).

 

F1 added 900M+ from 23 December to end .................😁 Or 550+ minus C/K/J

Edited December 22, 2019 by edroger3

[cdsacken]

Yeah f1 was a crazy surprise late run. F2 won't be like that at all. I'm still shocked reading about it. It's like black Panthers run it's just crazy town. TFAs run while impressive to me is sad. It has plummeted hard since. Equivalent to avatar 2 doing 1.8 billion. 

[Fullbuster]

4 minutes ago, edroger3 said:

 

SIX YEARS AGO (Sunday 22 December 2013)

Frozen added another $35.1 million from 33 territories in its fourth weekend of release. The animated film took a strong #1 opening in Mexico, where it nearly doubled the debut of Tangled with a $5.5 million bow. Italy opened to $2.9 million. The top markets for the film include Germany ($26.4M), the United Kingdom ($26.3M), France ($21.2M), Russia ($19.6M), and Spain ($12M). Frozen has grossed a total of $152.6 million overseas and $344.1 million worldwide.

 

NOW (Sunday 22 December 2019)

After crossing the $1B worldwide mark last weekend, Disney’s animated sequel added another $31.6M from 48 material offshore markets this session. The overseas cume rises above $700M to hit $717.2M to date while global is now $1,103.7M. The latter gives Elsa and Anna bragging rights to being the 4th biggest animated release of all time worldwide, having passed Despicable Me 3, Toy Story 3 and Toy Story 4. This is before openings in Scandinavia, Brazil and Argentina. Overall, the drop this session was 45% and with the holidays ahead.

The Top 5 markets to date are China ($115.1M), Korea ($89.9M), Japan ($75.7M), UK ($54M) and Germany ($43.6M).

 

F1 added 900M+ from 23 December to end .................😁 

 

Frozen 2 won't have the same legs but there are nice things to expect.

I didn't know Scandinavia was one of the territories left, I thought it was just Brazil and Argentina..so that's all good

[edroger3]

2 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

 

Frozen 2 won't have the same legs but there are nice things to expect.

I didn't know Scandinavia was one of the territories left, I thought it was just Brazil and Argentina..so that's all good

I'm sorry I updated it after you reply. By the way is just a "time capsule" moment.

[Jamiem]

14 minutes ago, edroger3 said:

 

SIX YEARS AGO (Sunday 22 December 2013)

Frozen added another $35.1 million from 33 territories in its fourth weekend of release. The animated film took a strong #1 opening in Mexico, where it nearly doubled the debut of Tangled with a $5.5 million bow. Italy opened to $2.9 million. The top markets for the film include Germany ($26.4M), the United Kingdom ($26.3M), France ($21.2M), Russia ($19.6M), and Spain ($12M). Frozen has grossed a total of $152.6 million overseas and $344.1 million worldwide.

 

NOW (Sunday 22 December 2019)

After crossing the $1B worldwide mark last weekend, Disney’s animated sequel added another $31.6M from 48 material offshore markets this session. The overseas cume rises above $700M to hit $717.2M to date while global is now $1,103.7M. The latter gives Elsa and Anna bragging rights to being the 4th biggest animated release of all time worldwide, having passed Despicable Me 3, Toy Story 3 and Toy Story 4. This is before openings in Scandinavia, Brazil and Argentina. Overall, the drop this session was 45% and with the holidays ahead. The Top 5 markets to date are China ($115.1M), Korea ($89.9M), Japan ($75.7M), UK ($54M) and Germany ($43.6M).

 

F1 added 900M+ from 23 December to end .................😁 Or 550+ minus C/K/J

Part of that would be Australia and New Zealand hadn’t opened yet for F1 they opened on Boxing Day. This time F2 has already been out for a month and probably the same is true for some other markets which opened earlier for F2 than F1.

[edroger3]

4 minutes ago, Jamiem said:

Part of that would be Australia and New Zealand hadn’t opened yet for F1 they opened on Boxing Day. This time F2 has already been out for a month and probably the same is true for some other markets which opened earlier for F2 than F1.

I Know, please note the ".................😁". I have see pre-Chrismast Sunday was in the same day (22) so.... 

Edited December 22, 2019 by edroger3

[salvador-232]

59 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

 

Pixar is a more known brand in LA, WDAS started to do well these last few years but it still has some room to grow.

As for Frozen 2 let's see how it performs in Brazil and Argentina next month, I'm pretty optimistic

Honestly is not a brand thing. Is just that Pixar movies are the ones that usually gets a Winter Holiday releases. 

 

If it wants to be a top tier release in LA it either needs to:

1) Be Coco

2) Have a June/July release date 

Edited December 22, 2019 by salvador-232

[Mau]

2 hours ago, salvador-232 said:

Honestly is not a brand thing. Is just that Pixar movies are the ones that usually gets a Winter Holiday releases. 

 

If it wants to be a top tier release in LA it either needs to:

1) Be Coco

2) Have a June/July release date 

This is so true, i know so many people in mexico who wants to see frozen 2, but they work or study, so they are going to the theater one month later

[charlie Jatinder]

5 hours ago, edroger3 said:

-snip-

The markets which are in release now but weren't back then for Frozen, Japan, Korea, China, Australia, Mexico & Italy (just one weekend), etc grossed $463mn Approx after that weekend, leaving $410mn for markets in release or yet to release like Latin America & Scandinavian Europe. Out of this $100mn was from new markets.

 

So it added $158mn after $27mn weekend.

 

Removing the above markets, recent weekend was $16mn for Frozen 2, with same multiple it will add another $93mn in these markets.

 

Say Latin America & Scandinavian Europe remain at $100-110mn.

 

Further the 6 markets I removed above shall add $80mn to Frozen 2.

 

Adding those $1,000million.

 

Note: In my earlier $940mn I didn't know that whole of Latin America is pending besides Mexico, Chile & Columbia. So add $25mn to that for $965mn plus.

Edited December 23, 2019 by Jedi Jat

[PKMLover]

17 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

The markets which are in release now but weren't back then for Frozen, Japan, Korea, China, Australia, Mexico & Italy (just one weekend), etc grossed $463mn Approx after that weekend, leaving $410mn for markets in release or yet to release like Latin America & Scandinavian Europe. Out of this $100mn was from new markets.

 

So it added $158mn after $27mn weekend.

 

Removing the above markets, recent weekend was $16mn for Frozen 2, with same multiple it will add another $93mn in these markets.

 

Say Latin America & Scandinavian Europe remain at $100-110mn.

 

Further the 6 markets I removed above shall add $80mn to Frozen 2.

 

Adding those $1,000million.

 

Note: In my earlier $940mn I didn't know that whole of Latin America is pending besides Mexico, Chile & Columbia. So add $25mn to that for $965mn plus.

I think Brazil and Argentina in LA are pending...