Weekend Thread: Estimates - Midway 17.5, Sleep 14.1, Fire 12.8, Xmas 11.6, Terminatah 10.8, Jokah 9.2, Mal2 8

[fmpro]

Sooooooo. We dont care about T6 anymore?

 

No number?

[reddevil19]

34 minutes ago, fmpro said:

Sooooooo. We dont care about T6 anymore?

 

No number?

I mean... no one kinda cared from the get-go, and that was its problem.

The worst part is that, if Cameron were to direct another movie himself, trying to rekindle the franchise's success, he couldn't even call it Salvation. 

[a2k]

25% bump from true Fri and 25% Sun drop gives DRS 11.9 ow. Very disappointing and inexplicable. Marketing may have been below par but other WB horrors this year opened fair. Anna3 and IT2 opened under expectations but nothing shocking like this. La Lorna's opening day was 11.9, something DRS could fail to match in the ow.

 

edit:

Deadline had used 5.1 true Fri (6.6 od) and extrapolated to 17.2 ow. that gives 13.0 dom using Charlie's 3.75 true friday...1.5 + (3.75/5.1)*(17.2-1.5)

Edited November 9, 2019 by a2k

[Litio]

So many flops and even successful superhero movies at bo are restricted to Marvel and DC.

So... Are distributors doing some kind of charity to cinema owners? That's a nice gesture Warner, Lionsgate, Paramount and Universal, but this is unsustainable.  Let Disney keep theaters alone. I guess cinemas will be fine getting 35% of their mega hits' box office. 🤷‍♀️

Edited November 9, 2019 by Litio

[dxmatrixdt]

.

Edited June 25, 2020 by abusive brainwashed Christ

[Krissykins]

That’s a surprise for Midway, not sure if it’s good cause I don’t know the budget and it doesn’t strike me as an overseas player. 
 

Not good for Doctor Sleep, although not a surprise after the UK opening. Sometimes they say the Uk expectation is a tenth of the US opening, it did $1.1m here. I’ll go see it this weekend. 
 

Last Christmas opened too early. It’ll have good legs, but it’ll be making too little by December to matter unfortunately. 

Edited November 9, 2019 by Krissykins

[BoxOfficeZ]

8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Joker did not succeed bcos of its marketing.

The trailers for that movie though were fantastic

 

Sleep on the other hand, its trailer was confusing.

[a2k]

13 minutes ago, BoxOfficeZ said:

The trailers for that movie though were fantastic

 

Sleep on the other hand, its trailer was confusing.

when i watched the trailer for the first time, until the end i thought the movie will be called redrum . would have preferred shining 2.

 

[titanic2187]

dr sleep further prove that it is very hard to turn a cult classic into a mainstream hit just like Blade Runner 2049.

[boxofficeth]

OMG I made a serious mistake when predicting Sleep's opening gross at 29M. Should have put it for the total dom gross!

[Zakiyyah6]

Joker's trailers were great, it's marketing was good. It's 96 million opening in October is proof of that. Can't wait until it hits 1 billion. I love giggling at woke film Twitter's suffering. They could just ignore the film but nope, they have to whine. Anyway, another strong, maybe 36-37% drop for Joker. Cool.

 

Doctor Sleep's numbers are very disappointing but I never believed that 25-30mil tracking in the first place. First time in forever WB couldn't open a horror movie. I suppose the Novel wasn't well known enough and nobody wanted a sequel to The Shining. Shades of Blade Runner 2049 syndrome.

 

If Midway has a 100mil budget that's not a good opening but I guess being a surprise number one is something. 

[Valonqar]

Shining had Crazy Jack as the bad guy while DRS has Rebecca Ferguson. Was anyone scared of her from watching the trailer? She's a great actress but the  trailer has to convey why people should be scared and I don't think it did. Big reason for IT Pt 1 success was how scary Pennywise was. You could easily slip with a clown but Skarsgaard and make up department nailed the demented look. 

[a2k]

4 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

If Midway has a 100mil budget that's not a good opening but I guess being a surprise number one is something. 

it's theme suits vd weekend perfectly so i don't expect strong legs after an inflated ow. even if it manages close to 3x after 20-21 ow that's 60 dom on 100 prod budget. interesting what the os prospects are.

[a2k]

38 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

dr sleep further prove that it is very hard to turn a cult classic into a mainstream hit just like Blade Runner 2049.

But WB did well containing the prod budget to mid-50s (partly due to the genre) unlike BR2049 or Terminator movies.

 

Looking at unadjusted grosses BR 1982 did 33 dom and BR2049 did 90 dom. BR2049 flopped due to costs but just going by inflation DRS was expected to comfortably beat The Shinings's 44 dom (149 adjusted) on 19 prod budget (64 adjusted).

Edited November 9, 2019 by a2k
added adjusted numbers from the-numbers.com

[Napoleon]

Weird year for the movies at the box office, so many underperformers. Even well reviewed movies, audiences just don't care. I guess Scorsese was right, the evil studio is killing cinema.

[Nova]

7 hours ago, filmlover said:

That's still yikes for Midway too since it's bound to be a loss. Needs to make at least $200M worldwide to not end up in the red (and probably isn't coming close to that mark).

It’s budget is gonna kill it but if it can do $20M+ this weekend then maybe it can leg it out to $100M+ domestic. These kinds of movies that cater to the older crowd have leggy runs in general and with apparently good WOM maybe it’ll help it. It’s still going to be a loss but not as big as a bomb as previously thought. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Midway 6.25

DS 4.8

LC 4

PwF 3.5

TD 2.75

J 2.5

H 2

M 2

Z 1.15

JJ 1.15

 

[respmw]

1 minute ago, Jedi Jat said:

Midway 6.25

DS 4.8

LC 4

PwF 3.5

TD 2.75

J 2.5

H 2

M 2

Z 1.15

JJ 1.15

 

True friday or including previews?

[reddevil19]

8 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

TD 2.75

J 2.5

I mean... TD's SAT increase HAS to be bigger after that Fri. Otherwise, Joker over TD for the weekend? 

[CoolioD1]

2 hours ago, BoxOfficeZ said:

The trailers for that movie though were fantastic

 

Sleep on the other hand, its trailer was confusing.

it's probably just a product of the book it's adapting but i know for myself watching the trailer was like:

 

"Hey, we made a sequel to the shining about danny..."

"Oh cool"

"and also this race of ancient vampiric monsters that want to feast on the souls of superpowered children"

"...huh?"