Weekend Thread: Estimates - Midway 17.5, Sleep 14.1, Fire 12.8, Xmas 11.6, Terminatah 10.8, Jokah 9.2, Mal2 8

[charlie Jatinder]

10 minutes ago, respmw said:

True friday or including previews?

Including all. I don't see any information on Halloween previews for DS, so I assume they are include in that $1.5mn figure.

[TMP]

WB needs a new marketing team lmfao

[Zakiyyah6]

Where are all those people who claimed that Terminator Dark Fate had good word-of-mouth? That we should "wait and see"?

[reddevil19]

Just now, TMP said:

WB needs a new marketing team lmfao

I think people here have a very short memory. WB's marketing has consistently been one of, if not the best. This year's been a lot of misfires, but I don't think you can really point to most of them as being marketing failures. Some of them weren't as good as they have been in the past, sure, but they were also facing an uphill battle, with a far diminished interest from audiences (IT2 and Godzilla 2 in particular).

 

Joker's marketing was fantastic as well - they knew exactly how to play it and did it perfectly, from going down the prestige route, targeting atypical consumers for comic book movies, etc.

[a2k]

Just now, Jedi Jat said:

TD 2.75  (+92%) // Joker bumped 104% on 1st Friday

J 2.5  (+129%)

M 2  (+170%)

Z 1.15 (+95%) 

Movie Sat%, Sun% = Weekend (hold%), Cume

 

TDF +60%, -25% = 10.45 (-64.0%), 48.1

J +55%, -25% = 9.28 (-31.3%), 313.5 // crosses 3.25x multi if this number holds

M +95%, -20% = 9.02 (-31.3%), 98.3

Z +60%, -30% = 4.28 (-42.3%), 66.6 // holds well and now has eyes set on predecessor's 75.6 dom

[Zakiyyah6]

No doubt WB has had a bad year. IT 2 underperformed but is still a hit though so people counting that as some sort of loss are not being honest.

[TMP]

4 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

I think people here have a very short memory. WB's marketing has consistently been one of, if not the best. This year's been a lot of misfires, but I don't think you can really point to most of them as being marketing failures. Some of them weren't as good as they have been in the past, sure, but they were also facing an uphill battle, with a far diminished interest from audiences (IT2 and Godzilla 2 in particular).

 

Joker's marketing was fantastic as well - they knew exactly how to play it and did it perfectly, from going down the prestige route, targeting atypical consumers for comic book movies, etc.

WB hired a new head of marketing in 2018, so those earlier wins are from a different team. Also, a lot of Joker's publicity was from CNN and the FBI lmao

[a2k]

16 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

No doubt WB has had a bad year. IT 2 underperformed but is still a hit though so people counting that as some sort of loss are not being honest.

IT2's dom theatrical returns are itself 115 (using 55%) on 80 prod budget. So starts eating into marketing budget on dom returns itself. OS returns are further 100 (using 40%). It's a BIG hit, just not jaw-dropping batpoop insane like IT1 (20x it's prod budget of 35 ww with dom itself doing north of 9x).

Edited November 9, 2019 by a2k

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, a2k said:

M +95%, -20% = 9.02 (-31.3%), 98.3

Frozen 2 double booking and 125mn is right there. Good.

[Nova]

WB doesn’t need a new marketing team. WB typically has one of the best marketing teams out there. I say this as someone who criticized them for the way they handled Shazam! but just because they’ve had a relatively down year compared to others doesn’t mean they need to over haul everything. They still had a huge hit in the Joker. I’m not sure what they could have done for a movie like Doctor Sleep but I think it’s time to realize that just because a movie is based off a Stephen King story doesn’t mean it’s going to be a box office smash. IT was an anomaly. Lightening in the bottle. Penny wise had that type of cultural impact. There is no other King character who has been able to do that regardless of how popular his other books/stories are. 

[Zakiyyah6]

I think Doctor Sleep unfortunately was never going to be a big hit. Certainly I thought it would open with 18mil at least but oh well I was wrong again.

[wildphantom]

BR2049 all over again. 
I say time and again that older audiences are just not coming out like they used to. So when you make a sequel to a movie that’s a beloved film of a much older generation, well you’re reliant on them showing up for it to be successful. 
The younger moviegoers whom, let’s be fair, are propping up the theatrical business almost single-handedly, aren’t necessarily spending their money on DS as they haven’t seen The Shining! They probably know it’s meant to be great and have every intention of watching it one day, but they can tell from the marketing they need to see that movie first.  Just like what happened with Blade Runner. 
If there’s one thing to be learnt from what makes big money these days it’s realising that younger moviegoers like to be part of the conversation. The Shining isn’t their conversation - simple as that. 

Making sequels to cult classics of yesteryear is a risky business.  Older audiences are proving time and again that they’re not interested in showing up for these kinds of movies.  They’re to blame. 

[reddevil19]

Just now, TMP said:

WB hired a new head of marketing in 2018, so those earlier wins are from a different team. Also, a lot of Joker's publicity was from CNN and the FBI lmao

I think you'll find most people didn't actually give a shit about CNN and all that controversy, especially outside of North America. WB played it brilliantly going down the festival route, marketing it as a prestige pic, and grabbing Europe (who then ended up loving the movie, which accounts for legs, but it also out-opened expectations). Blair Rich has also been President of Worldwide Marketing since Jan 2018. So they also had Aquaman, A Star is Born, Crazy Rich Asian, Rampage, Ready Player One, The Meg, even Crimes of Grindlewald (which, yes, under-performed, but that was a similar case of a drop in audience interest, plus baggage around the cast and a shit reception).

 

So, I really don't see why you're dumping this year's misfires at marketing's feet exclusively. Some of the marketing wasn't stellar, yes, but their slate wasn't great either. Now, if Birds of Prey opens under 50 million, then that IS exclusively down to the so-far non-existent marketing. 

[a2k]

1 minute ago, Nova said:

WB doesn’t need a new marketing team. WB typically has one of the best marketing teams out there. I say this as someone who criticized them for the way they handled Shazam! but just because they’ve had a relatively down year compared to others doesn’t mean they need to over haul everything. They still had a huge hit in the Joker. I’m not sure what they could have done for a movie like Doctor Sleep but I think it’s time to realize that just because a movie is based off a Stephen King story doesn’t mean it’s going to be a box office smash. IT was an anomaly. Lightening in the bottle. Penny wise had that type of cultural impact. There is no other King character who has been able to do that regardless of how popular his other books/stories are. 

it's all about marketing

 

WALT DISNEY PRESENTS

^{_{IN 2020}}

KEVIN FIGE'S

_{^{BLACK WIDOW AND NOT}}

DOCTOR SLEEP

[Zakiyyah6]

Most people who were wrong about Joker not doing well cannot get it through their heads that it's well received and that it is a big hit so they try to downplay it at every turn. It's just like the people who can't get over Captain Marvel being successful.

[reddevil19]

8 minutes ago, Nova said:

I say this as someone who criticized them for the way they handled Shazam!

Agreed - Shazam! was their biggest missed opportunity this year, but it wasn't exclusively marketing. That should have been moved, and never released in-between CM and EG. They never gave it a chance with that date. Put it out in August and I reckon it would have easily done another 100 million WW.

As I said, it hasn't been a good year for WB, but blaming it all on marketing is just a bad take.

[TMP]

1 minute ago, reddevil19 said:

Agreed - Shazam! was their biggest missed opportunity this year, but it wasn't exclusively marketing. That should have been moved, and never released in-between CM and EG. They never gave it a chance with that date. Put it out in August and I reckon it would have easily done another 100 million WW.

As I said, it hasn't been a good year for WB, but blaming it all on marketing is just a bad take.

Shazam didn't have a proper trailer until a month before release, come on. Marketing was a big reason to blame for that under-performing

[Nova]

1 minute ago, reddevil19 said:

Agreed - Shazam! was their biggest missed opportunity this year, but it wasn't exclusively marketing. That should have been moved, and never released in-between CM and EG. They never gave it a chance with that date. Put it out in August and I reckon it would have easily done another 100 million WW.

As I said, it hasn't been a good year for WB, but blaming it all on marketing is just a bad take.

Oh absolutely! Shazam! being put in between CM and End Game is what led to its average BO results. Regardless of the marketing for that film it wasn’t going to be able to breath sandwiched between those two films. The marketing for it didn’t help it either. But the biggest issue with that film was its release date. 

[a2k]

8 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

Agreed - Shazam! was their biggest missed opportunity this year, but it wasn't exclusively marketing. That should have been moved, and never released in-between CM and EG. They never gave it a chance with that date. Put it out in August and I reckon it would have easily done another 100 million WW.

As I said, it hasn't been a good year for WB, but blaming it all on marketing is just a bad take.

Was gonna say swap Doc Sleep and Shazam release dates but WB had La Llorona there.
 

1	N	Avengers: Endgame	Walt Disney	$357,115,007		4,662	$76,601	$357,115,007	1
2	(4)	Captain Marvel	Walt Disney	$8,312,751	-9%	2,435	$3,414	$413,841,798	8
3	(1)	The Curse of La Llorona	Warner Bros.	$8,045,744	-69%	3,372	$2,386	$41,830,045	2
4	(3)	Breakthrough	20th Century…	$6,806,342	-40%	2,913	$2,337	$26,616,572	3
5	(2)	Shazam!	Warner Bros.	$5,583,903	-66%	3,631	$1,538	$131,213,630	4

 

However WB had 0 releases in Jan and March. So maybe have Shazam in Nov and DRS in Jan or March. Maybe even Shazam could have benefited in Jan soon after AQM?

 

Edited November 9, 2019 by a2k

[reddevil19]

2 minutes ago, TMP said:

Shazam didn't have a proper trailer until a month before release, come on. Marketing was a big reason to blame for that under-performing

Its teaser, which came out August 2018, was over 2 and a half minutes long. That's a proper trailer, regardless of how you define it, because it doesn't show everything off. The release window killed the movie, as there's just no room to breathe with CM and EG either side, and marketing a little-known character like that is near enough impossible in that context, with the other two projects eclipsing everything.

 

The release date was the biggest issue, as marketing would have had more room to work later in the summer. Again, I'm not saying their marketing has been great, but you're taking a simplistic view, where it's ALL their bad marketing, ignoring how successful they've been in the past. They didn't all just become shit at their jobs, and Joker proves that. There are other factors here.