Weekend Thread: Estimates - Midway 17.5, Sleep 14.1, Fire 12.8, Xmas 11.6, Terminatah 10.8, Jokah 9.2, Mal2 8

[a2k]

RT score (all audience) for openers,

DRS 89%

M 83%

LC 74%

PWF 68%

[Alli]

Horror movies don't need a star or even good reviews to succeed. The addition of Ewan MCg and RF was supposed to add some gravitas, make it classier than the usual horror movies

[MrGlass2]

2 hours ago, Alli said:

DUNE should be fine as long as they make it an epic adventure. If they make it pretentious or slow it will flop.

With the record of ambitious science-fiction movies at the box office, it is easy to predict a flop. The opposite would be almost miraculous.

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

Yawn weekend. Please let Ford vs Ferrari get over 30m next week.

[a2k]

Midway costs, credits and boxoffice

Quote

I hear Midway is a pretty good win for Lionsgate, not awesome, but solid. This AGC Studios movie reportedly cost $100M, with a net of $75M after credits, and that foreign sales and a hefty China deal (the latter overseen by CAA Media Finance with Bona) covered $60M. Lionsgate took UK and U.S. with an MG and solid P&A (around $40M) and screen commitment. They do not have equity in the film, but reap the upside of a distribution deal (“I’ve never known Lionsgate to not do a distribution deal,” remarks one film finance source about the distrib’s involvement in foreign sales financed pics that aren’t theirs). $65M domestic is breakeven on the film overall, I’m told by finance sources, with $40M-plus being a sweet spot for Lionsgate.

https://deadline.com/2019/11/doctor-sleep-midway-last-christmas-opening-weekend-box-office-1202780077/

Edited November 9, 2019 by a2k

[babz06]

2 minutes ago, a2k said:

Midway costs, credits and boxoffice

https://deadline.com/2019/11/doctor-sleep-midway-last-christmas-opening-weekend-box-office-1202780077/

So it seems like Lionsgate offset alot of that budget by selling the film overseas, I could definitely see this film legging it out to 50-60m since its playing well to older audiences. 

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

[MrGlass2]

5 minutes ago, babz06 said:

So it seems like Lionsgate offset alot of that budget by selling the film overseas, I could definitely see this film legging it out to 50-60m since its playing well to older audiences. 

Lionsgate didn't, it is an independent movie from auteur Emmerich. Hopefully its relative success means that he will get to make Moonfall.

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

[Valonqar]

29 minutes ago, Alli said:

Horror movies don't need a star or even good reviews to succeed. The addition of Ewan MCg and RF was supposed to add some gravitas, make it classier than the usual horror movies

Horror movies don't need class either. Look at Saw franchise. tacky as it gets and yet spawned so many sequels. 

[a2k]

J vs M2 ... am going a bit optimistic on M2 and normal on J to see how things can go to the wire 😎

M2 +95% Sat, -20% Sun 2.00+3.85+3.08=8.93

J +50% Sat, -30% Sun 2.51+3.765+2.635=8.91

[sfran43]

WIDE (1000+)

#	TITLE	WEEKEND		LOCATIONS		AVG.	TOTAL	WKS.	DIST.
1	Midway	$18,000,000	—	3,242	—	$5,552	$18,000,000	1	Lionsgate
2	Doctor Sleep	$13,500,000	—	3,855	—	$3,502	$13,500,000	1	Warner Bros.
3	Last Christmas	$11,900,000	—	3,448	—	$3,451	$11,900,000	1	Universal Pictures
4	Playing with Fire	$11,300,000	—	3,125	—	$3,616	$11,300,000	1	Paramount Pictures
5	Terminator: Dark Fate	$10,000,000	-66%	4,086	0	$2,447	$47,657,130	2	Paramount
6	Joker	$9,000,000	-33%	2,806	-713	$3,207	$313,291,507	6	Warner Bros.
7	Maleficent: Mistress of Evil	$8,500,000	-35%	3,201	-619	$2,655	$97,799,901	4	Disney
8	Harriet	$7,200,000	-38%	2,186	127	$3,294	$23,433,140	2	Focus Features
9	Zombieland: Double Tap	$4,300,000	-42%	2,427	-910	$1,772	$66,640,483	4	Sony Pictures
10	The Addams Family	$4,100,000	-51%	2,674	-933	$1,533	$91,367,705	5	United Artists Releasing
11	Countdown	$2,900,000	-50%	1,829	-846	$1,586	$22,332,505	3	STX Entertainment
12	Motherless Brooklyn	$2,200,000	-37%	1,342	0	$1,639	$7,357,074	2	Warner Bros.
13	Black and Blue	$1,800,000	-56%	1,129	-933	$1,594	$18,981,865	3	Sony / Screen Gems
14	Arctic Dogs	$1,100,000	-62%	2,320	-524	$474	$4,868,346	2	Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures

LIMITED (100 — 999)

#	TITLE	WEEKEND		LOCATIONS		AVG.	TOTAL	WKS.	DIST.
1	Jojo Rabbit	$4,000,000	71%	802	546	$4,988	$9,175,882	4	Fox Searchlight
2	Parasite	$2,400,000	-5%	603	142	$3,980	$11,126,976	5	NEON
3	Downton Abbey	$650,000	-44%	474	-438	$1,371	$95,687,915	8	Focus Features
4	Abominable	$460,000	-57%	406	-731	$1,133	$59,223,085	7	Universal Pictures
5	Gemini Man	$400,000	-78%	480	-1392	$833	$48,018,847	5	Paramount Pictures
6	Ad Astra	$105,000	-49%	248	111	$423	$49,850,945	8	20th Century Fox
7	The Lion King	$90,000	-19%	135	-23	$667	$543,471,945	17	Walt Disney Pictures

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

#	TITLE	WEEKEND		LOCATIONS		AVG.	TOTAL	WKS.	DIST.
1	Housefull 4	$125,000	-71%	85	-230	$1,471	$2,012,570	3	FIP
2	Toy Story 4	$55,000	-1%	89	-16	$618	$433,949,664	21	Disney
3	Rambo: Last Blood	$16,000	-78%	58	-147	$276	$44,740,145	8	Lionsgate

[filmlover]

Jojo Rabbit is expanding really well.

[The Panda]

52 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I thought Midway and Playing with Fire were easily gonna be the weakest links of the weekend but as it turns out they are actually most surprisingly positive lol.

 

Honey Boy is looking at a $64K PTA from 4 theaters according to HR. Quite great. Shia LaBeouf's comeback is officially in full swing between this and The Peanut Butter Falcon this year.

The Boomers are going to love Midway.  Saw it and it panders to the old farts through and through.

[Ryan Reynolds]

.

Edited November 9, 2019 by Ryan Reynolds

[lorddemaxus]

3 minutes ago, The Panda said:

The Boomers are going to love Midway.  Saw it and it panders to the old farts through and through.

Is it jingoistic as hell like it seems from the trailers?

Edited November 9, 2019 by lorddemaxus

[MrGlass2]

13 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

LIMITED (100 — 999)

What happened to The Lighthouse?

[Julian1410]

Doctor sleep deserves much more