Weekend Thread: Estimates - Midway 17.5, Sleep 14.1, Fire 12.8, Xmas 11.6, Terminatah 10.8, Jokah 9.2, Mal2 8

[Jonwo]

I think Ford v Ferrari should do well and unusually it has PLFs which should drive up the gross. 

 

 

[filmlover]

I think what helps Ford v Ferrari is that it actually looks like fun and crowd-pleasing as opposed to something dour (like recent adult-oriented nonstarters like First Man, Widows, Ad Astra, etc. did). It won't open to $40M+ like Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood did but $25M doesn't seem like that big of a stretch.

[Jonwo]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I think what helps Ford v Ferrari is that it actually looks like fun and crowd-pleasing as opposed to something dour (like recent adult-oriented nonstarters like First Man, Widows, Ad Astra, etc. did). It won't open to $40M+ like Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood did but $25M doesn't seem like that big of a stretch.

The budget is quite high at nearly $100m but it'll be a real boost for Fox who haven't had a great year.

[Legion Again]

22 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

What are people honestly expecting for Ford v Ferrari? I thought a three hour biopic about British car racing in the 1960s was headed to 15m OW even with some star power, but BO.com is predicting over 30m OW and I talked to a couple of my friends from on here and they are predicting over 100m total. I am not seeing it, but god the box office could use it.

Why is everything so long these days?     
 

I think low 20s finish in 80s, but might just be underestimating the old man demographic.

[Nova]

Sales around my area indicate a $25M opening for Ford vs Ferrari however if it skews older I can see it being like Midway ie less presales skewing and more walk up based which could drive it to a $30M weekend. 

[Ithil]

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, AnDr3s said:

 

Top 10 is an estimated 99.65M. Mal is underestimated by more than .35M, so if the other 9 can break even with actuals this isn’t actually happening.

Edited November 10, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[Legion Again]

Anybody know the last weekend where top 4 were all new?

[Eric Atreides]

10 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Anybody know the last weekend where top 4 were all new?

Off the top of my head, I think the last time was in February 2012, when The Vow, Safe House, Journey 2, and Phantom Menace 3D (it counts) all opened.

[TheUndertaker]

I did the math and Terminator Genysis was over 300M by its 2nd weekend in every country (including China), so about 100M ahead of Dark Fate (which even has 3rd weekends in some countries already).

[Cmasterclay]

I remember when A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood first trailer dropped - buzz was off the chain and it got the reviews it needed to match....but now, two weeks out, nobody is talking about it!! Pretty inexplicable how the buzz just fell off. Maybe it got out there too early. I was predicting about 120m total but now I'm only predicting around 60-70. However, I am upping my Knives Out prediction from about 40m total to about 75m total to compensate a little bit. If Ford v Ferrari really breaks out, a good chance at three 60m+ adult dramas this month - not too shabby, with JoJo/Parasite doing well in limited release.

[TMP]

48 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Why is everything so long these days?     

150 minutes ain’t that long lmao, the biggest movie of all time is 180

[SnokesLegs]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

I remember when A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood first trailer dropped - buzz was off the chain and it got the reviews it needed to match....but now, two weeks out, nobody is talking about it!! Pretty inexplicable how the buzz just fell off. Maybe it got out there too early. I was predicting about 120m total but now I'm only predicting around 60-70. However, I am upping my Knives Out prediction from about 40m total to about 75m total to compensate a little bit. If Ford v Ferrari really breaks out, a good chance at three 60m+ adult dramas this month - not too shabby, with JoJo/Parasite doing well in limited release.

I can see the combination of Tom Hanks and America’s nostalgia for Mr Rogers turning it into a fairly modest hit, I’m thinking around Bridge of Spies numbers domestically. Although I doubt it’ll be too big outside the US, I saw it last month at LFF and while it is a very enjoyable film with great performances, I can’t see it connecting as much to non-US audiences unfamiliar with Mr Rogers.

[Legion Again]

16 minutes ago, Eric Torrance said:

Off the top of my head, I think the last time was in February 2012, when The Vow, Safe House, Journey 2, and Phantom Menace 3D (it counts) all opened.

So quite a rarity then. I’ll accept this as technically eligible, but I still wonder about 4 actually new movies rather than 3 plus a new version of a 90s release.

[Eric Atreides]

7 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I remember when A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood first trailer dropped - buzz was off the chain and it got the reviews it needed to match....but now, two weeks out, nobody is talking about it!! Pretty inexplicable how the buzz just fell off. Maybe it got out there too early. I was predicting about 120m total but now I'm only predicting around 60-70. However, I am upping my Knives Out prediction from about 40m total to about 75m total to compensate a little bit. If Ford v Ferrari really breaks out, a good chance at three 60m+ adult dramas this month - not too shabby, with JoJo/Parasite doing well in limited release.

It's weird Sony didn't have a second trailer out. It would have done wonders and kept the buzz going. As is, they had a trailer out early, but nothing else to carry the momentum, especially since I didn't see it play in front of any movie. And I've been to the theaters a good number of times.

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, TMP said:

150 minutes ain’t that long lmao, the biggest movie of all time is 180

It’s fine to be mega long when you need all that time to tell the full story, often epics and/or finales. Perhaps Ford vs Ferrari will be such a case, I haven’t seen it yet, but I’m skeptical.   
 

But I do think there have been a lot of 150ish runtimes recently for movies where the audience doesn’t feel like it’s justified and shows up less. 

[Jonwo]

40 minutes ago, SnokesLegs said:

I can see the combination of Tom Hanks and America’s nostalgia for Mr Rogers turning it into a fairly modest hit, I’m thinking around Bridge of Spies numbers domestically. Although I doubt it’ll be too big outside the US, I saw it last month at LFF and while it is a very enjoyable film with great performances, I can’t see it connecting as much to non-US audiences unfamiliar with Mr Rogers.

I saw it as well at the LFF and I thought it was a lovely film but I suspect it's going to like Saving Mr Banks which did well domestically but not so hot OS.

 

 

Edited November 10, 2019 by Jonwo

[Jonwo]

1 minute ago, Thanos Legion said:

It’s fine to be mega long when you need all that time to tell the full story, often epics and/or finales. Perhaps Ford vs Ferrari will be such a case, I haven’t seen it yet, but I’m skeptical.   
 

But I do think there have been a lot of 150ish runtimes recently for movies where the audience doesn’t feel like it’s justified and shows up less. 

Is there ever a perfect length for the film? I would imagine cinemas aren't keen on long films as much as the audience as it means less showtimes. 

[filmlover]

I thought A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood could be a Wonder-esque hit when the trailer dropped but yeah, not feeling it anymore. Feels like it's gonna land in the same $70-90M range that Saving Mr. Banks/Bridge of Spies/The Post did (and that Hanks is getting snubbed again lol). Seems kinda out there that these movies have settled for sorta average runs while Sully overperformed with $125M - I guess Clint really did have a lot of goodwill at the time coming off of American Sniper.

[Nova]

13 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I remember when A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood first trailer dropped - buzz was off the chain and it got the reviews it needed to match....but now, two weeks out, nobody is talking about it!! Pretty inexplicable how the buzz just fell off. Maybe it got out there too early. I was predicting about 120m total but now I'm only predicting around 60-70. However, I am upping my Knives Out prediction from about 40m total to about 75m total to compensate a little bit. If Ford v Ferrari really breaks out, a good chance at three 60m+ adult dramas this month - not too shabby, with JoJo/Parasite doing well in limited release.

I completely forgot A Beautiful Day In the Neighborhood comes out in two weeks. Which is wild considering when the trailer dropped, it was all over my timeline. Now? Nothing. Sony 100% dropped the ball on that one. But maybe it’ll still surprise with the older crowd coming through.