Weekend Thread: Estimates - Midway 17.5, Sleep 14.1, Fire 12.8, Xmas 11.6, Terminatah 10.8, Jokah 9.2, Mal2 8

[TMP]

6 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

It’s fine to be mega long when you need all that time to tell the full story, often epics and/or finales. Perhaps Ford vs Ferrari will be such a case, I haven’t seen it yet, but I’m skeptical.   
 

But I do think there have been a lot of 150ish runtimes recently for movies where the audience doesn’t feel like it’s justified and shows up less. 

I mean, none of the reviews I've read have complained about the length. I'll agree that It 2 didn't need a Godfather-sized running time though

[Cmasterclay]

Yea Beautiful Day really could have used a second trailer or attachments to more movies, Eric is right on that one. It should sell itself. A well-reviewed feel good movie over the holiday season starring Tom Hanks about Mr. Rogers? $$$$. And considering the trailer views and the insane amount of shares....it did. But then it didn't. Oh well. 70m would still be nice enough money considering the environment. 

[filmlover]

I'm feeling like Knives Out is heading for something of a breakout tbh. The buzz is there and should appeal to a variety of different moviegoers considering the cast.

[Jonwo]

5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I thought A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood could be a Wonder-esque hit when the trailer dropped but yeah, not feeling it anymore. Feels like it's gonna land in the same $70-90M range that Saving Mr. Banks/Bridge of Spies/The Post did (and that Hanks is getting snubbed again lol). Seems kinda out there that these movies have settled for sorta average runs while Sully overperformed with $125M - I guess Clint really did have a lot of goodwill at the time coming off of American Sniper.

I think Sully being based on a more recent event helped as well and it was released in September rather than October or November which gave it more breathing room.

[babz06]

I don’t know why people are down on Beautiful Day when it’s not the type of film that needs a million trailers or extensive marketing. They’ll probably put out a final trailer next week and ramp up the marketing before release. This is the type of film that’s going to have very long legs over the holidays.

Edited November 10, 2019 by babz06

[filmlover]

11 minutes ago, babz06 said:

I don’t know why people are down on Beautiful Day when it’s not the type of film that needs a million trailers or extensive marketing. They’ll probably put out a final trailer next week and ramp up the marketing before release. This is the type of film that’s going to have very long legs over the holidays.

It should be leggy but it doesn't seem like it's gonna be the breakout a lot of people thought it would be when the marketing first began (especially opening against Frozen 2, different audiences but the screen space is gonna be limited) and will probably settle for a high-teens. Legs should definitely be good though, since theaters will be eager to ditch all these nonstarters out right now/about to come out (Charlie's Angels, 21 Bridges) before that.

[Fullbuster]

Can we realistically expect Frozen 2 to do better than Frozen 1 both DOM/OS? I feel like F2 will beat it OS but not entirely sure about DOM (mostly because I don't know the market that well)...

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, SnokesLegs said:

I can see the combination of Tom Hanks and America’s nostalgia for Mr Rogers turning it into a fairly modest hit, I’m thinking around Bridge of Spies numbers domestically. Although I doubt it’ll be too big outside the US, I saw it last month at LFF and while it is a very enjoyable film with great performances, I can’t see it connecting as much to non-US audiences unfamiliar with Mr Rogers.

Only thing...

 

Anecdotally, my mom is a senior who watched last year's Mr. Roger's documentary (Won't You Be My Neighbor?)...and she says she doesn't need to see this movie b/c she already saw a Mr. Rogers movie last year.

 

Like my kids and I passing on Abominable b/c I watched a yeti movie (Smallfoot) last year...this might actually be a thing...seniors could also be saying "do I need another Mr. Rogers movie in my life", especially when this month is loaded for senior adult drawing movies...

Edited November 10, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[filmlover]

9 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

Can we realistically expect Frozen 2 to do better than Frozen 1 both DOM/OS? I feel like F2 will beat it OS but not entirely sure about DOM (mostly because I don't know the market that well)...

The first Frozen was such a once in a blue moon/out of nowhere overperforming phenomenon that if the sequel makes more than it, Disney would be extremely happy.

Edited November 10, 2019 by filmlover

[Jonwo]

Midway did $24m OS  which seems good on paper but $16m of that came from China. 

[CoolioD1]

my prediction is that frozen 2 will be a little like toy story 4 where it's gonna make more than its predecessor but people are still gonna fucking whine about it because it didn't hit whatever absolutely insane increase they were hyping up.

[Jonwo]

I imagine Disney will be hoping Frozen II does reignite interest in the overall Frozen franchise since they're opening new productions of the stage musical in the next year worldwide. 

[CJohn]

200M OW or bust for Frozen 2. Accept nothing else.

[filmlover]

Just now, CJohn said:

200M OW or bust for Frozen 2. Accept nothing else.

What are your thoughts on Legend Cena beating tracking by opening higher than Last Christmas and almost beating Doctor Sleep (which was tracking for a $30M+ opening and is now looking like it'll barely cross that in total lol)?

[Fullbuster]

15 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The first Frozen was such a once in a blue moon/out of nowhere overperforming phenomenon that if the sequel makes more than it, Disney would be extremely happy.

 

9 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

my prediction is that frozen 2 will be a little like toy story 4 where it's gonna make more than its predecessor but people are still gonna fucking whine about it because it didn't hit whatever absolutely insane increase they were hyping up.

 

7 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

I imagine Disney will be hoping Frozen II does reignite interest in the overall Frozen franchise since they're opening new productions of the stage musical in the next year worldwide. 

 

I see, it won't be an easy battle, and a hard one to predict. Didn't know there was a musical, pretty cool  

 

 

 

 

 

 

2 minutes ago, CJohn said:

200M OW or bust for Frozen 2. Accept nothing else.

 

Oh you! xD

Is that even possible to have such a DOM opening when you're not Avengers/Star Wars ? ^^'

 

[CJohn]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

What are your thoughts on Legend Cena beating tracking by opening higher than Last Christmas and almost beating Doctor Sleep (which was tracking for a $30M+ opening and is now looking like it'll barely cross that in total lol)?

John Cena pinned the tracking clean 1, 2, 3. He always wins.

 

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Fullbuster said:

Didn't know there was a musical, pretty cool  

Yeah, there's a musical that opened on Broadway early last year and is about to begin a national tour.

[Elessar]

2 hours ago, TMP said:

150 minutes ain’t that long lmao, the biggest movie of all time is 180

Avatar is not quite that long... oh, wait... damn! 

[Xftg123]

2 hours ago, Fullbuster said:

Is that even possible to have such a DOM opening when you're not Avengers/Star Wars ? ^^'

 

Incredibles 2 was the closest at 182M. And that ended up becoming the highest grossing animated movie at the domestic box office, and was the first animated film to make 600M domestically.

[forg]

Downton Abbey is so close yet so far from the 100M milestone. I don't want another Rocketman that gets close to 100M but still couldn't make it.