Weekend Thread: Estimates - Midway 17.5, Sleep 14.1, Fire 12.8, Xmas 11.6, Terminatah 10.8, Jokah 9.2, Mal2 8

[Alli]

1 minute ago, MrGlass2 said:

It's the economy. People are starting to save money just to afford one ticket for The Invisible Man after watching that trailer.

Invisible Man looks like a non starter to me. the trailer is flopping on youtube in terms of views/likes.

[dudalb]

Just now, TwoMisfits said:

I think early November is just bad horror movie timing...there's been two months of horror build up to Halloween, then usually you have the horror of the elections, and folks start looking for a break for patriotism/unity or thankfulness (aka Vet's Day or Thanksgiving) before wanting Xmas...and that holiday brings horror to some folks, so they are willing to turn back to horror then (that's a joke, but not really:)…

 

I also think early November is too early for a Christmas themed film..which is a reason why Last Christmas seems also to be underperforming. Should have waited at least until the Thanksgiving holiday to open.

[tonytr87]

5 hours ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Not that good, but Ewan has always been box office poison. Trailers being confusing did not help.

 

Really hate this term. It implies that moviegoers are actively avoiding a certain actor. We know that's not the case. 

[narniadis]

love it!! Sad for Sleep but as others have noticed, WB has sucked at marketing and its not just the fall films, their entire slate this year has suffered minus Joker. 

[filmlover]

Also looks like Playing with Fire is overperforming a bit if those numbers hold up. Cena his POWER! @CJohn

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, dudalb said:

I also think early November is too early for a Christmas themed film..which is a reason why Last Christmas seems also to be underperforming. Should have waited at least until the Thanksgiving holiday to open.

For an adult one - yeah, I agree.  You gotta wait til a few flurries have fallen somewhere...

 

 

[tonytr87]

5 hours ago, filmlover said:

Honestly the crowd that remembers when The Shining came out isn't into horror movies these days, and the movie's probably too long (at 2.5 hours) and appears too "old fashioned" for most of today's horror consumers (another problem that plagued Crimson Peak a few years ago). I suspect its real life will begin when it arrives for home viewing.

 

It's too bad November is looking to be somewhat of a bust overall unless any of Ford v Ferrari/A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood/Knives Out really overperform. Disney to the rescue once again, I guess.

 

This might be true, might not be true. 

 

What is true is the trailers weren't scary at all, the reviews have been lackluster, and when people are done with Halloween, they're done with it. It was a mistake to release this in November. More than any of those, Doctor Sleep is not that a famous as a book and no movie buff in their right mind wanted a sequel to a Kubrick film that isn't directed by Kubrick. 

 

I watch everything, and I'm not watching this. Why? Because I have no desire to see Shining-lite made by a TV director. 

Edited November 8, 2019 by tonytr87

[Alli]

Last Christmas has one big problem. The trailer barely features any snow. How can i get into the Christmas spirit without snow? I believe it was filmed in London and it shows. Looks so depressing, not jolly

[tonytr87]

3 hours ago, Alli said:

Parasite is so freakin good. The Lighthouse-a misfire. The Witch was amazing. what happened?!

 

You should be banned for this. 

[narniadis]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

For an adult one - yeah, I agree.  You gotta wait til a few flurries have fallen somewhere...

 

 

Yall are forgetting how the Holiday season works. It has been this way for 2 decades, the christmas films tend to open the 2nd or 3rd weekend of November to have the bounce of Thanksgiving. They dire literally on 12/26 which is why studios dont open them in December. You may not like it, but its one area where the studios are actually right in what they do. 

And this Christmas film is actually meeting expectations for a change, contrary to what presales suggested. 🤷‍♂️

[tonytr87]

6 minutes ago, dudalb said:

I also think early November is too early for a Christmas themed film..which is a reason why Last Christmas seems also to be underperforming. Should have waited at least until the Thanksgiving holiday to open.

 

13-15 mil OW isn't underperforming. That's exactly where everyone thought it would land. 

[Curtis1986]

Last Christmas is underperforming because people thought it looked like a made for tv halmark movie. Not because it is early November. The reviews also dont help.

[Eric Duncan]

6 minutes ago, dudalb said:

I also think early November is too early for a Christmas themed film..which is a reason why Last Christmas seems also to be underperforming. Should have waited at least until the Thanksgiving holiday to open.

Obviously not a perfect comparison, but we had Grinch hitting 270M last year.

[filmlover]

Worth mentioning also that Midway's numbers are still sending it to "flop" territory unless it's huge overseas (that's doubtful) but at least it won't be as big of one as expected heading into the weekend and looking to pull off a surprise #1. Oh well, gotta look for a positive in there somewhere.

[tonytr87]

15 minutes ago, a2k said:

Wonder why DoctorSleep is under-performing. Hot genre, King's name, connection with Shining - should have done much better. 🙁

 

Looked like a waste of time. Trailers still mean something, people. 

[tonytr87]

1 minute ago, Curtis1986 said:

Last Christmas is underperforming because people thought it looked like a made for tv halmark movie. Not because it is early November. The reviews also dont help.

 

It cost 30 mil. It's making a tidy profit in the end. 

[TwoMisfits]

3 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Yall are forgetting how the Holiday season works. It has been this way for 2 decades, the christmas films tend to open the 2nd or 3rd weekend of November to have the bounce of Thanksgiving. They dire literally on 12/26 which is why studios dont open them in December. You may not like it, but its one area where the studios are actually right in what they do. 

And this Christmas film is actually meeting expectations for a change, contrary to what presales suggested. 🤷‍♂️

Nah, they die around Jan 2/3 (whenever the actual holiday break is over).

 

And I'm not saying don't open in Nov - I think you have to open an older-skewing Xmas movie after election day and vet's weekend is over...3rd weekend of Nov to 1st weekend of Dec should be the sweet spot, depending if you're drawing kids (so you stay longer) or not...

 

Bad Moms Xmas also made this mistake, opening too early and too low...having decent legs, but then getting tossed 10 days before Xmas and missing out on the most lucrative Dec 15-Jan 1 period...

Edited November 8, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[Jonwo]

5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Worth mentioning also that Midway's numbers are still sending it to "flop" territory unless it's huge overseas (that's doubtful) but at least it won't be as big of one as expected heading into the weekend and looking to pull off a surprise #1. Oh well, gotta look for a positive in there somewhere.

It's still a win for Lionsgate since they're only distributing. 

 

It's odd that despite good reviews, Doctor Sleep has done worse than both The Dark Tower and Pet Sementary but I think WB were a bit overconfident moving from January to November. With Joker doing boffo business, they can suck it up and concentrate on their next three films. 

 

 

Edited November 8, 2019 by Jonwo

[lorddemaxus]

12 minutes ago, tonytr87 said:

What is true is the trailers weren't scary at all, the reviews have been lackluster, and when people are done with Halloween, they're done with it. It was a mistake to release this in November. More than any of those, Doctor Sleep is not that a famous as a book and no movie buff in their right mind wanted a sequel to a Kubrick film that isn't directed by Kubrick. 

 

I watch everything, and I'm not watching this. Why? Because I have no desire to see Shining-lite made by a TV director. 

I love movies and I wanted to watch this, the reviews are fine, and Mike Flanagan isn't a TV director. He's only made one TV show. This kind of gatekeeping trash is why I hate talking about movies online sometimes. If you were excited for this movie you aren't a movie buff? And Mike Flanagan is a crappy director because he made a TV show? What?

 

By the way 2010 was more of a sequel to a Kubrick movie than this seems to be and that was pretty good...

 

On the other hand the trailers were terrible. I was put off from watching it after the second trailer. The reviews are really what got me excited for the movie again.

Edited November 8, 2019 by lorddemaxus

[CoolioD1]

yeah doctor sleep looked dull. i saw it last week because someone else offered to pay. otherwise there's no way i would've seen it lol. the film itself is just ok. there's really no good reason for it to be over 2 and a half hours either.