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Eric Slay

Corona/Streaming: The End of Box Office As We Know It?

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I think most of the effects on movies have already been felt. As noted, mid-level movies have largely died off in theaters, leaving it to be a tentpole field most of the time.

 

I also don't think that the release of Disney+ is going to form doom for Netflix. Disney is of a very specific mindset, and that mindset is "franchise". The high profile original content is going to either be MCU or Star Wars, which... doesn't really affect much. Netflix and Amazon and HBO will continue to generate their own original content.

 

I see two things eventually happening. One, the services that exist within the same corporate umbrella (HBO Max and DC Universe; Disney+ and Hulu) will eventually be consolidated. (The exception to this will probably be content for a specific audience; I don't expect ESPN+ to be folded in.) Two, there will be increased perpetual exclusivity. Disney films will only show up on Disney+, and WB films will only show up on HBO. The other studios, which may or may not have their own efforts in the mix, will probably partner up with an existing platform. Or get bought out by the same. I could easily see Amazon and Apple just outright buying a studio, if only for the guaranteed back catalogue. Apple may need to do this, because of a relative lack of its own content.

 

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19 hours ago, ElsaRoc said:

I think most of the effects on movies have already been felt. As noted, mid-level movies have largely died off in theaters, leaving it to be a tentpole field most of the time.

 

I also don't think that the release of Disney+ is going to form doom for Netflix. Disney is of a very specific mindset, and that mindset is "franchise". The high profile original content is going to either be MCU or Star Wars, which... doesn't really affect much. Netflix and Amazon and HBO will continue to generate their own original content.

 

I see two things eventually happening. One, the services that exist within the same corporate umbrella (HBO Max and DC Universe; Disney+ and Hulu) will eventually be consolidated. (The exception to this will probably be content for a specific audience; I don't expect ESPN+ to be folded in.) Two, there will be increased perpetual exclusivity. Disney films will only show up on Disney+, and WB films will only show up on HBO. The other studios, which may or may not have their own efforts in the mix, will probably partner up with an existing platform. Or get bought out by the same. I could easily see Amazon and Apple just outright buying a studio, if only for the guaranteed back catalogue. Apple may need to do this, because of a relative lack of its own content.

 

Netflix is not going to vanish, but it's not going to dominate the streaming market the way is has been doing. Much more competitive.

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Streaming will not hurt the box office for blockbusters. Those movies are still event-level films that will be seen theatrically. Streaming does give studios a place to put movies that they think would lose money in the theater. This means that the trend of studios focusing on blockbusters will not be coming to an end any time soon.

 

Disney+ specifically will have no effect on box office. Disney’s movies were already going to be available on cable 9 months after leaving the movie theater. It makes no difference that they will now be available on streaming instead after 9 months. If someone really wants to see a movie in our instant-gratification culture, then they will see it in the theater. Nothing has changed in that respect.

 

If the exlcusivity window shrinks, then box office is in trouble. Disney supports the 90 day exclusivity window, which is good for theaters. But, if the other studios shrink that window, theaters could be in trouble. That’s why theaters are fighting so hard to preserve the exclusivity window. Streaming is a new battle ground for studios and those that want to be studios. The exclusivity window is the battle to preserve box office.

Edited by Walt Disney
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30 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

Frankly I think the streaming companies are being a bit silly if they think a lot of people are going to sign up for 3-4 streaming services at once. 

Hbomax is a hell no for me. No discount and $180 a year for minimal content. Hells no.

 

Disney wa $140 for 3 years with TONS of content. Might get apple since it's so cheap if I can snag an annual deal if it pops up. My Netflix discount will plummet from 70% to 25/30 in a couple years. Will be tough to stomach. Probably $19.99 then.

Edited by cdsacken
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46 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Hbomax is a hell no for me. No discount and $180 a year for minimal content. Hells no.

 

Disney wa $140 for 3 years with TONS of content. Might get apple since it's so cheap if I can snag an annual deal if it pops up. My Netflix discount will plummet from 70% to 25/30 in a couple years. Will be tough to stomach. Probably $19.99 then.

 

 

What i mean is that there could be a price war at first which could keep prices lower for a while. 

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57 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

 

What i mean is that there could be a price war at first which could keep prices lower for a while. 

Doesn't seem that way to me. Netflix is skyrocketing their price.  HBOmax coming out the gate with a delusional price that can't be offset at all by discounts.  Apple and Disney have been welcome surprises on that front.

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2 hours ago, cdsacken said:

Doesn't seem that way to me. Netflix is skyrocketing their price.  HBOmax coming out the gate with a delusional price that can't be offset at all by discounts.  Apple and Disney have been welcome surprises on that front.

 

 

and whatever is offered will be much more expensive in Canada.

 

I remember watching a commercial for a LEXUS RX 350 for lease for like 400 dollars a month and I got excited and realized..."damn American prices..." 🤣

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4 hours ago, cdsacken said:

HBOmax coming out the gate with a delusional price that can't be offset at all by discounts.

HBOMax is free if you already subscribe to HBO, FWIW.

 

EDIT:::

 

Turns out I was wrong on that and I was just going by initial reporting:

 

Quote

HBO Max is AT&T’s new crown jewel in the streaming landscape, building upon what its predecessor HBO Now started so many years ago. But the $14.99-per-month HBO Max is more than HBO Now, and to prove it, AT&T wants to give HBO Max away for free to as many customers as possible.

 

HBO Max is going to be free for a lot of people, but figuring out who those customers are is still difficult to parse. AT&T is going to give its wireless customers who already subscribe to HBO through AT&T’s services (like AT&T TV or U-Verse TV) a free one-year subscription to Max. That’s approximately 10 million people. The goal is to get those people to eventually continue subscribing to HBO Max once the year is over, dropping the older HBO subscription, which also costs the same $15 per month. Also, subscribers of premium AT&T mobile and broadband services will be eligible for HBO Max bundles at no extra charge.

 

HBO Max is also going to be a free upgrade for people who already subscribe to HBO Now, but there’s a bit of a caveat: it’s only free for people who are billed directly through HBO, according to AT&T. That means the offer is only eligible for customers who subscribe through hbonow.com and are billed by HBO. Customers who subscribe to HBO Now via other services, like Amazon Prime or Apple, are not eligible for the free offering.

 

Similarly, customers who subscribe to HBO through other cable providers and more traditional pay TV providers, like Comcast, will also not be eligible for a free year of HBO Max — at least for now. John Stankey, AT&T’s chief operating officer, told investors at an HBO Max media event on Tuesday night that the company is working to strike deals with those traditional providers. It’s increasingly beneficial for AT&T to have customers subscribe to HBO Max directly through AT&T instead of through third parties, and AT&T has designed its systems to reward customers who subscribe directly through AT&T.

 

Lame in the extreme.

 

SECOND EDIT:::

 

Man,  this is confusing.  Looks like folks subscribed through DirectTV (ie me) are eligible, though I don't know if it's for a year or an ongoing thing.

 

Not exactly making it easy to figure out.

Edited by Porthos
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56 minutes ago, DlAMONDZ said:

15 bucks for what is essentially HBO + Everything WB owns is a bargain

Not really. Not a chance in hell I will pay for it. I cut cable a long ass time ago and never plan on going back. Personally I think it's the worst deal out there by far.

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1 hour ago, ElsaRoc said:

The more I think about it, the less D+ is worth it, at least for the first year or two. Same with Apple+. The lack of original content is key. Mandalorian isn't worth it alone. 

Apple has nothing. Disney has tons. Netflix domestically will lose subscribers starting in 2020

Netflix keeps with their documentaries and massive discounts . Stranger things and their orignals I don't even watch . It would be hard to drop Netflix though. I've had it for almost 20 years.

 

Edited by cdsacken
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If Disney does a Hulu premium deal for black Friday or a combo with Disney + I am in. That $13 deal is killer but I despise commercials. That's what makes Netflix so amazing. I have almost no time for Tv with a 5 year old. I need to maximize my time.

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8 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Apple has nothing. Disney has tons. Netflix domestically will lose subscribers starting in 2020

Netflix keeps with their documentaries and massive discounts . Stranger things and their orignals I don't even watch . It would be hard to drop Netflix though. I've had it for almost 20 years.

 

Disney's back catalogue doesn't really entice me. If there's something very specific I want to watch, I'd probably either opt for a rental, library check-out, or, if I really want it (like most WDAS entries), I'll just buy it. The comparison of service original programming is mostly what I look at. Netflix has a massive advantage there, because it's been doing it for a lot longer. And there are several active originals that I follow. (It's seriously a great service for original animated shows.)

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10 minutes ago, ElsaRoc said:

Disney's back catalogue doesn't really entice me. If there's something very specific I want to watch, I'd probably either opt for a rental, library check-out, or, if I really want it (like most WDAS entries), I'll just buy it. The comparison of service original programming is mostly what I look at. Netflix has a massive advantage there, because it's been doing it for a lot longer. And there are several active originals that I follow. (It's seriously a great service for original animated shows.)

Disney is a weekly model which is genius. Netflix is super easy to purge and dump for those who do it. For me though I love the documentaries and I've never paid more than 50% of list price in the last decade. They cracked down now hard, best discount I can find is 30% off.

 

Discounting Disney is crazy though. Netflix is a veteran and a champion internationally. I don't expect them to die at all but domestically they will struggle with HBO, Disney and Apple challenging them. 

 

I hope Netflix continues to innovate and remains the leader. I would love to keep them and Disney+. Disney at $3.88 is unbeatable. Equivalent Netflix model is what $16 month?

Despite being worried about Netflix I've always loved them and wish them the best.

 

I hope they continue to differentiate themselves in niche spaces like documentaries for me and anime for you.

Edited by cdsacken
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