Corona/Streaming: The End of Box Office As We Know It?

[EmpireCity]

3 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

I agree this practice is bogus, and the wrong call. I hope Disney reverses it. That said, it wasn’t like Fox owned every movie ever made. Can’t show Die Hard? Show White Christmas or It’s A Wonderful Life. Can’t show Moulin Rouge? Show West Side Story. Can’t show Sound of Music? Show Step Mom. 
 

That’s why I think the decision is incredibly narrow minded. You’re not gonna stop the process. You’re just going to force The theaters to show different films. The real issue will be if Warner Bros. follow suit once HBO Max exists.  That’s the real danger. That Disney is setting a precedent. 

 

Correct, but the counter to that is theaters have shown and tested out those other films and they simply can't compete.  Step Mom is a good movie, but it isn't even in the realm of Sound of Music.  A Wonderful Life is largely already shown and demand wouldn't go up much with more showings.  

 

You are correct, and that is the current rumor/fear is that Warner Bros. is going to likely pull their catalog.  

[Alli]

So, i have to wonder. Are the studios ok with theaters going extinct? why are they doing anything in their power to extinguish theaters from existence? do they think streaming is the way to make the most money in the future?

 

blurays are dead, so it will only be streaming, which will be like tv

Edited November 16, 2019 by Alli

[EmpireCity]

The new streaming services have also made the very smart decision of weekly or longer format releasing of their shows instead of dumping them all at once like Netflix has done.  

 

It is going to keep the buzz and social conversation going for a lot longer.  You see it already with The Mandalorian.  If they would have dumped that all at once it would have been forgotten in some form by today.  Releasing 2 episodes this week and the rest once a week is going to keep the conversation going for a long time.  

[lorddemaxus]

1 minute ago, TMP said:

The DC shows won't make a big impact; none of Berlanti's stuff's ever captured the Zeitgeist. We're still getting 8 MCU projects and 3 DC films that year though. Talk about over-saturation

Lol what the hell. 8? I thought they would do just two shows a year. They're doing 4 shows along with 4 movies? 

[TMP]

2 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Lol what the hell. 8? I thought they would do just two shows a year. They're doing 4 shows along with 4 movies? 

Right now it's 4 movies + 4 shows for 2021, but it might be 5 shows if Ms Marvel is out then too. 7 shows if She-Hulk & Moon Knight too, meaning there's a possibility for 11 MCU projects in 12 months

[nick64]

2 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Lol what the hell. 8? I thought they would do just two shows a year. They're doing 4 shows along with 4 movies? 

Yep, Shang-Chi, Doctor Strange 2, Spider-Man 3, and Thor 4; plus WandaVision, Loki, What If, and Hawkeye.

[EmpireCity]

1 minute ago, Alli said:

So, i have to wonder. Are the studios ok with theaters going extinct? why are they doing anything in their power to extinguish theaters from existence? do they think streaming is the way to make the most money in the future?

 

I wouldn't say that they are necessarily ok with it, and I don't think theaters will go completely extinct, but as a simple math equation it doesn't make a lot of sense for the studios to keep the current outdated system propped up.  

 

The other factor is all of this is happening while the stock market is booming and the United States is at nearly full employment.  There is going to be another economic downturn and when it happens the pressure will really be on movie theaters unlike it ever has in history.  

 

Traditionally movie theaters have actually benefited from economic downturn as people saw them as an inexpensive escape when they couldn't afford to take a vacation or do something more expensive.  That was true when tickets were $5 and sneaking in some candy and a soda you bought from CVS was the normal thing to do.  

 

Now tickets are $12+ and the theater model is dine in based more than ever.  People aren't going to dump $100+ on seeing a movie and eating overpriced food when they can get Disney+ for $7 a month or HBO Max or Netflix for $15 a month and can order in some DoorDash for a fraction of the price.  

 

They also will be watching on their 75'' 4K SmartTV and nice sound instead of their crappy 27'' tube tv with bad speakers.  

[Alli]

also, this seeing a specific movie whenever you want is dangerous too. so many movies will not be seen because they are buried. at least on tv you could stumble upon a movie.

 

But more importantly,  who will actually have all,  let's say 5 streaming services (replacing the major studios) in the future? To see the one movie you want to see you have to buy the streaming service full.  Today, if you want to see a specific movie you see that movie in the theater. 

 

Let's say, i'm a fan of Brad Pitt and i want to see all movies with Brad Pitt, But he's doing movies for all 5 streaming services, what do i do....buy them all?

 

it stinks

 

 

Edited November 16, 2019 by Alli

[Cap]

5 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

Correct, but the counter to that is theaters have shown and tested out those other films and they simply can't compete.  Step Mom is a good movie, but it isn't even in the realm of Sound of Music.  A Wonderful Life is largely already shown and demand wouldn't go up much with more showings.  

 

You are correct, and that is the current rumor/fear is that Warner Bros. is going to likely pull their catalog.  

Again, correct, but the counter to that is: personally, I go to these things all the time.  It's kind of same crowd.  If I see they're showing Raiders of The Lost Ark for the nth time, I'm not going.  It's when they pull out something new that I make the effort to go.  And I normally make like one or two of these a month.  I don't think practice will die off ASAP, it will just have to evolve.  I would hope / assume that it will end up like some TCM Presents where theaters can have access to the back catalogue, but the corporation is deciding what film's being shown and at what time.  So, you want the Sound of Music?  You only get it on Mom's Day Weekend.

 

But, like I said, WB pulling their catalogue is what's really scary cause not only do they own their own stuff, they have control of RKO, MGM, and UA's back catalogue.  

 

I would also push back at these companies saying that they TRIED vaulting these films behind a paywall with services like Filmstruck or Warner Archive, and ended up pulling those services for low subscriptions.  So I don't get how they think this time will be any different.  Just show the damn movies!

[Cap]

MODERATION!

 

@EmpireCity and @Eric Plus's Thread have been merged into one How Streaming Service Affects The Box Office Discussion.  Eric's write up is on the first page; EmpireCity's post is Rec'd at the top.  

 

Thank you!

[EmpireCity]

9 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

Again, correct, but the counter to that is: personally, I go to these things all the time.  It's kind of same crowd.  If I see they're showing Raiders of The Lost Ark for the nth time, I'm not going.  It's when they pull out something new that I make the effort to go.  And I normally make like one or two of these a month.  I don't think practice will die off ASAP, it will just have to evolve.  I would hope / assume that it will end up like some TCM Presents where theaters can have access to the back catalogue, but the corporation is deciding what film's being shown and at what time.  So, you want the Sound of Music?  You only get it on Mom's Day Weekend.

 

But, like I said, WB pulling their catalogue is what's really scary cause not only do they own their own stuff, they have control of RKO, MGM, and UA's back catalogue.  

 

I would also push back at these companies saying that they TRIED vaulting these films behind a paywall with services like Filmstruck or Warner Archive, and ended up pulling those services for low subscriptions.  So I don't get how they think this time will be any different.  Just show the damn movies!

 

Absolutely.  It is the dumbest logic ever by the studios.  The thought that someone won't pay for their streaming service because they are able to go to a theater and watch one of their catalog movies is absurd.  

 

It is nothing but free money for them, but some weirdo long ago came up with the "vault" concept and they are terrified to go away from it.  

[EmpireCity]

The other thing to consider is that movie theaters have been artificially propped up and inflated as an industry for a couple decades now.  Theater owners are terrified to ever move to a true model that lets the consumer decide what they really want.  Their association and leverage has created something that really isn't sustainable for them.  

 

The fair market would ultimately show what the reality of theaters really are in 2019 and going forward. If you gave people a choice of buying a movie day and date for something like $20-$30 on streaming or going to the theater to see it for normal price, I think you would get a cold slap of reality that far more people would choose the streaming option.  That doesn't mean theaters would disappear, but they absolutely would contract down to what the actual demand is.  

 

 

[Cap]

@EmpireCity What are your thoughts on subscription services a la MoviePass (#RIP) or AMC Stubs?  Is there any future in that or did MoviePass kill it dead? 

 

 

[eddyxx]

45 minutes ago, Alli said:

So, i have to wonder. Are the studios ok with theaters going extinct? why are they doing anything in their power to extinguish theaters from existence? do they think streaming is the way to make the most money in the future?

 

blurays are dead, so it will only be streaming, which will be like tv

If the theaters were gone, wouldnt the budgets for all productions go down as the studios couldnt make nearly as much profit from streaming only.

 

There you go Scorese, more mid budget films but on streaming only.

[EmpireCity]

24 minutes ago, eddyxx said:

If the theaters were gone, wouldnt the budgets for all productions go down as the studios couldnt make nearly as much profit from streaming only.

 

There you go Scorese, more mid budget films but on streaming only.

Quite the opposite.  Disney will make far more from Disney+ than they would from box office.  

 

If theaters disappeared tomorrow, that box office money wouldn't disappear.  Disney (or any of the streaming services) would simply put their new release theatrical films on Disney+ and places like Vudu / Amazon and for an extra charge people could watch them on release or choose not to do that and wait 3-6 months for when they are included in the normal streaming price.  

 

Disney would love that.  Instead of splitting that money 65/45 with movie theaters and playing a ton of money in booking and distribution logistics, they simply put it on Disney+ and with a few clicks start accepting money from credit cards already on file.  They keep all the money.  

 

The other part of this that has been a dirty secret until recently is how much better this is for the studios when it comes to compensating talent.  The days of most back end deals would be gone.  No more having to pay Robert Downey Jr. something like $250m-$300m for his participation in the Marvel Universe.  

 

Hollywood has mostly killed off movie stars anyways, so having a further veil of unknown in how much streaming films actually make is another advantage to them.  

[EmpireCity]

41 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

@EmpireCity What are your thoughts on subscription services a la MoviePass (#RIP) or AMC Stubs?  Is there any future in that or did MoviePass kill it dead? 

 

 

 

That is one of the last ditch efforts, but as you can see a lot of the people that sign up for it mostly complain about the service fees and aren't happy with even a reasonable cost because moviepass conditioned them to an unreasonable price.  

 

It will help but won't save theaters.  

 

At the end of the day, owning and running theaters is incredibly expensive.  Top of the line projectors, surround sound, premium recliner seating, staffing, food and beverage costs and even the normal brick and mortar costs of things like heating/cooling, electricity, insurance are all costly.  

 

Gone are the days when you could have a big screen, a relatively cost effective 35mm projector, some normal seats and only popcorn / candy / soda because everyone now expects a premium experience with upgrades everywhere for the same cost.  

 

The same time the cost of running theaters has gone through the roof, the cost and quality of home entertainment equipment has never been cheaper along with the availability and quality/quantity of streaming entertainment options.  

 

It is about 20 converging factors that don't add up to anything but negative for theaters.  

[RealLyre]

13 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

Quite the opposite.  Disney will make far more from Disney+ than they would from box office.  

 

If theaters disappeared tomorrow, that box office money wouldn't disappear.  Disney (or any of the streaming services) would simply put their new release theatrical films on Disney+ and places like Vudu / Amazon and for an extra charge people could watch them on release or choose not to do that and wait 3-6 months for when they are included in the normal streaming price.  

 

 

 

but wouldn't that increase Piracy? if something is released day and date on a streaming service (regardless of the price) AND in theaters. some people would opt to just pirate it if it's available at their disposal, whereas that option isn't available if the movie is released theatrically first. I don't imagine the effect of piracy would be that minimal especially if theater demands decline.

Edited November 16, 2019 by RealLyre
.

[kitik]

I posted this article a few weeks ago in a different thread, but for folks who don't quite understand what's happening here, it gives a bit of insight into one aspect of it. So this article about many classic movies being pulled from circulation is worth posting again in this thread:

https://www.vulture.com/2019/10/disney-is-quietly-placing-classic-fox-movies-into-its-vault.html?utm_medium=s1&utm_campaign=vulture&utm_source=tw

 

It gives some insight into how theaters are being affected. But there's even more bad news lurking for theaters that hasn't been mentioned.

 

A lot of "smaller" rights-holders have apparently been raising their fees or making it much more difficult for theaters to screen their films. Some of them see the disappearance of the Fox films from the market as an opportunity to raise the prices to show their own movies. Some of them seem to think they're sitting on a goldmine and are waiting for Netflix to call them up and offer a wheelbarrow full of cash, while neglecting theaters in the short term. Some of them aim for "artistic purity" and will only allow their movies to be viewed under perfect conditions, which obviously greatly decreases the opportunities for a screening. And some of them are just plain obstinate.

 

All of it, however, adds up to bad news for movie theaters.

[JB33]

This thread is incredibly depressing. This isn't directed at any of you - the conversation is valid and incredibly informative - but the sentiment is depressing as someone whose favourite pastime is going to the theatre.

[EmpireCity]

It is depressing, but it will be fine in the long run.  Things change.