Corona/Streaming: The End of Box Office As We Know It?

[forg]

Netflix will benefit from that, they're so gonna buy theater to screen their awards movies

[Sunny Max]

Netflix will get benefit from that ... Online streaming is become an industry .

[redfirebird2008]

16 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

https://www.thewrap.com/justice-department-to-end-1940s-antitrust-rules-governing-film-distribution/

 

 

 

That's pretty wild news. Found this quote in another article about it: 

 

"Changes over the course of more than half a century also have made it unlikely that the remaining defendants can reinstate their cartel. Evolution in antitrust law has further made blanket prohibitions of certain vertical restraints inappropriate. Accordingly, the Division finds the consent decrees no longer meet consumer interests."

 

Guess we will see how this plays out. Would anyone be the least bit shocked if the likes of Disney or Warner attempt to buy a bunch of theaters? 

[Eric Duncan]

3 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

That's pretty wild news. Found this quote in another article about it: 

 

"Changes over the course of more than half a century also have made it unlikely that the remaining defendants can reinstate their cartel. Evolution in antitrust law has further made blanket prohibitions of certain vertical restraints inappropriate. Accordingly, the Division finds the consent decrees no longer meet consumer interests."

 

Guess we will see how this plays out. Would anyone be the least bit shocked if the likes of Disney or Warner attempt to buy a bunch of theaters? 

https://deadline.com/2019/11/paramount-decrees-antitrust-makan-delrahim-1202789365/

 

Obviously this is grain of salt and speculation, but that might not be the case necessarily.

 

"

But even if studios are freed from 71-year-old restrictions that prevent them from exercising significant control over the exhibition pipeline, it doesn’t necessarily mean they will rush to buy up theater chains.

Studio sources expressed doubts that many would move to buy brick and mortar businesses at a time of upheaval. Rather, supporters of the government’s proposal believe that it could lead to other types of innovations, like subscription plans, and more experimenting with day and date theatrical and streaming releases. At a time when just about all of the major studios are launching streaming services, there could be more flexibility to tie subscriptions to theatrical exhibition offers."

 

Still, this kind of stuff is terrible, horrible, no good, very bad.

[EmpireCity]

This gives studios even more incentive to make it harder on theaters in the near term to drive their price down and buy them for pennies on the dollar if that is where they want to go.  

[Barnack]

I imagine it open the door wide open to change the exclusivity windows

[EmpireCity]

The cinema and industry overall will look radically different in a few years if not sooner.  

[cdsacken]

13 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

The cinema and industry overall will look radically different in a few years if not sooner.  

Sure subscription model was a decade overdue. More tweaks are coming.

 

[Eric Duncan]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/how-disney-plus-can-help-the-box-office-social-media/

 

Quote

Social media tracking reveals that Disney Plus original programming has the potential to become a new driver for the studio’s theatrical offerings. This would not only set it apart from the other streaming giants, but pay off in more than just monthly subscriptions. Disney Plus’s flagship original series, “The Mandalorian,” offers an instructive look at the potentially symbiotic relationship between Disney Plus and the box office.

 

The Disney marketing arm for the Star Wars franchise has used its official social media accounts to market the new series relentlessly and to great effect. The Instagram page for Star Wars has almost 12 million followers, close to 20 million on Facebook, and over 4 million on Twitter. With Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker scheduled to release a month after the launch of Disney Plus, the synergy between them has been spectacular. Instagram has already generated over 34 million likes since June 1 to lead all films tracked on the service, handily beating the second and third place of 23 million and 20 million (both of which happen to be Disney titles: Avengers: Endgame and Spider-Man: Far From Home). 

 

While Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker will not owe its ultimate success to “The Mandalorian,” the series has generated great interest and awareness among fans. For any franchise, increased interest on the eve of a release is always a good thing. 

 

Consider a similar model for Marvel movies, with a collection of web series already in the pipeline, including “The Falcon and the Winter Soldier,” “WandaVision,” “Loki,” and “Hawkeye”. All of these will be more closely tied to the successful MCU franchise than previous Marvel series such as “Agent of S.H.I.E.L.D,” “Luke Cage,” or “Jessica Jones.” The audience for the MCU is huge, garnering worldwide revenue above $22 billion. Original content on Disney Plus featuring these characters will not only drive subscriptions but help drive interest in further theatrical films. If we consider a similar model for other popular titles, Pixar films, the Fox catalogue, or Disney animated releases—the sky is truly the limit.

 

Online streaming has been painted as an existential threat to the theatrical box office. Disney Plus might be the first streaming service to show how the two can coexist and thrive together. 

 

[Fullbuster]

 

 

It is about the French market but I feel like the trends must be similar across the Western world as a whole given the reasons have nothing to do with culture. The source of this is an article in French and I thought it was fascinating enough to deserve a discussion.

 

To sum it up:

-2019 will be a new record in terms of admissions for the French market, Europe's most dynamic: 215 million admissions.

-This has been a decade of box office flirting with records, holding on very well.

 

Then, how the hell is that a sign of decline? Well, what's interesting here is the way they go beyond these numbers and give a glance at the demographics of cinema-goers:

Between 2010 and 2019 the composition of the audience radically changed: the number of young viewers declined by 20 millions while the numbers of seniors increased by 20 millions, helping the box office to stay strong.

 

Why is it happening? 2 reasons according to the CNC (National Center of Cinema): The rise of digital options and ticket prices.

 

The thing is, seniors won't be there forever...What happens when they die while young people are increasingly deserting theaters?

I feel like we might be in the Golden Age of theaters and Box Office but it might come to an end in 5-10 years, slowly but surely....On a global level it's gonna hold on thanks to the growth of non-Western markets but the trends will also come to these countries at some point.

 

Firms like Disney have nothing to fear, they have digital platforms like Disney+ turned toward the young generation and the future but theaters on the other hand might end up like video game stores who started to massively decline 10 years ago with the development of online retail (Amazon and local competitors) and digital platforms (Steam, PSN, eShop..etc..).

 

Of course I'm open to any argument suggesting it's not gonna happen, I only suggest it from this data. Have a nice day!

 

SOURCE:

https://www.lefigaro.fr/medias/cinema-les-jeunes-se-detournent-les-seniors-toujours-plus-nombreux-20191205

[Cap]

@Fullbuster  I merged your topic with our Streaming Wars Thread, for the sake of keeping the discussion all together. 

[CloneWars]

I do think it's possible that in 10 years or so, cinema going might mostly be dead. People are only seeing tentpoles and let's face it, those are almost only Disney movies. This year is down significantly down in attendance from last year despite having Endgame, TLK, and other high grossing films. 

[Fullbuster]

29 minutes ago, CloneWars said:

I do think it's possible that in 10 years or so, cinema going might mostly be dead. People are only seeing tentpoles and let's face it, those are almost only Disney movies. This year is down significantly down in attendance from last year despite having Endgame, TLK, and other high grossing films. 

 

Not American but yeah, Disney movies are pretty much the only ones I see in theaters, the only exception of the decade was Wonder Woman.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, CloneWars said:

I do think it's possible that in 10 years or so, cinema going might mostly be dead. People are only seeing tentpoles and let's face it, those are almost only Disney movies. This year is down significantly down in attendance from last year despite having Endgame, TLK, and other high grossing films. 

I wouldn't say "significantly"  and even if it was, last time I checked it still looks to beat 2017 and should beat 2016 at least by gross.  Can't really check attendance easily over on the "new and improved" BOM, and I don't know where to look for it over on the-numbers.

 

People forget that 2018 was a record setting year by gross, and not by a small margin.

 

===

 

EDIT:: Okay, they have "tickets sold" over on the-numbers on yearly summaries.  Eyeballing it, I do think 2019 should be able to pass 2017 in raw tickets sold domestically.  2016 might be too far to reach though.

Edited December 7, 2019 by Porthos

[cdsacken]

1 hour ago, CloneWars said:

I do think it's possible that in 10 years or so, cinema going might mostly be dead. People are only seeing tentpoles and let's face it, those are almost only Disney movies. This year is down significantly down in attendance from last year despite having Endgame, TLK, and other high grossing films. 

This really isn't accurate imo. Family Alist will be awesome. In definitely gonna get it.

[Porthos]

Okay, last 10 years.  All numbers via the-numbers:

 

Tickets sold:

2010:  1,328,549,023

2011:  1,282,891,721

2012:  1,381,106,440

2013:  1,339,172,000

2014:  1,262,089,880

2015:  1,325,666,719

2016:  1,301,666,059

2017:  1,225,639,433

2018:  1,312,910,791

2019:  1,102,022,099 (and counting)

 

December is one of the busier months in the calendar when it comes to ticket sales.   Should still pass 2017.  But that's not saying much since it was the worst of the decade.  Not completely sure it can catch 2014 as I am having trouble getting a good baseline for ticket sales per month (thanks again, ever so much BOM)

 

So, yeah, 2019 is def a down year.   Don't think I'm ready to sing the funeral dirges yet though.  Though a re-examination of what to do in the future in light of current trends is very probably necessary.

[cdsacken]

2020 will be under 1.2. gonna be baaaaad

[The Futurist]

On 11/16/2019 at 7:10 PM, redfirebird2008 said:

It'll get to the point where only the big franchise type movies are released in theaters. Everything else will go to home video.

Children movies for the deplorables at the theaters.

Art movies on Smartphones for the well lectured and educated people.

A Brave New World.

 

Tarantino just swallowed his own puke by the way.

[The Futurist]

[The Futurist]

For the younger generation, I think social medias and apps & youtube & tiktok & what not have become monsters regarding leasure time.

I think studies have shown how youtubers and influencers have become as popular or even more as sports people or actors.

I mean, a 13 yo kid has like 2 000 events per day to deal on his smartphone, not enough time to check out the latest movie.

Kids are living their own tv series dramas in their social cirlce-bubble with their smartphones which by the way is creating more depression and suicides among youth.

Killing yourself for likes or dislikes.

That s where we at as a civilization.

Yay for progress !?

Edited December 7, 2019 by The Futurist