Corona/Streaming: The End of Box Office As We Know It?

[forg]

I hope that people still wanting to go out as form of socializing and dating could still keep the theater experience alive in the next decade. If you asked me a few years ago, I thought for sure streaming won't be a big threat but this year not gonna line I feel worried how long can it stay relevant. I hope it won't really die and manage to co-exist. 

[Lordmandeep]

Well yeah the only reason i watch blockbusters in theaters is that getting people to go along to watch smaller films is hard and I dont like to go the theater on my own. 

 

I think that applies to a lot of people and why the box office is more blockbuster centric now . 

Edited December 7, 2019 by Lordmandeep

[Fullbuster]

As long as these great movies I like still exist I don't really care whether I watch it in a theater or on a streaming platform to be honest.

I feel better watching at home on my TV anyway, with the meal I wanted and at the time I decided to watch instead of the one decided by theaters, and at a better price at that as a ticket in a theater allows me to watch a movie ONCE while giving the same amount to a streaming platform allows me to watch it as many times as I want + other products.

 

I'm not necessarily at ease with all the changes that are likely to come to the movie / gaming industries to be honest but it's mostly nostalgia and my old habits...I try to adapt and see the positive sides of these changes as I don't want to become like these old people who refuse the internet because they have their old habits, I want to stay open to new things till the very end.

And objectively it's not a future to fear once I stop watching with my nostalgia goggles.

Edited December 9, 2019 by Fullbuster

[Eric Atreides]

https://variety.com/2020/digital/news/netflix-coronavirus-benefit-stay-at-home-stocks-1203518686/

 

Quote

Amid fears over a global economic slowdown from the widening coronavirus outbreak, companies like Netflix that provide in-home services are best positioned to withstand the storm or even see upside from the crisis, according to industry analysts.

 

Netflix “is an obvious beneficiary if consumers stay home due to coronavirus (COVID-19 virus) concerns, and this has been reflected in considerable stock price outperformance this week,” BMO Capital Market analyst Dan Salmon wrote in a research note Friday.

 

Netflix shares are up 0.8% this week through market close Thursday, amid the worst sell-off on Wall Street in nearly nine years over fears that a broader spread of the coronavirus may lead to a worldwide recession. The S&P 500 index has plunged 8.3% this week through Feb. 27.

 

Other analysts have identified home-entertainment providers as seeing a potential silver lining from a wider spread of the virus. “If the contagion became more internationally widespread but short of panic, more people are likely to seek home entertainment options such as from companies like Comcast and AT&T, and streaming TV shows and films from Netflix, Disney Plus, Comcast’s Peacock, AT&T’s HBO Max and others,” Moody’s Investors Services analysts led by Neil Begley commented in a Jan. 29 report.

 

[Madhuvan]

Even destiny want streaming services to succeed. 

 

Waiting for the eventual premiere of Avengers vs X-men on Disney Plus. 

[Eric Atreides]

On 11/16/2019 at 1:44 PM, EmpireCity said:

The other factor is all of this is happening while the stock market is booming and the United States is at nearly full employment.  There is going to be another economic downturn and when it happens the pressure will really be on movie theaters unlike it ever has in history.  

 

Traditionally movie theaters have actually benefited from economic downturn as people saw them as an inexpensive escape when they couldn't afford to take a vacation or do something more expensive.  That was true when tickets were $5 and sneaking in some candy and a soda you bought from CVS was the normal thing to do.  

 

Now tickets are $12+ and the theater model is dine in based more than ever.  People aren't going to dump $100+ on seeing a movie and eating overpriced food when they can get Disney+ for $7 a month or HBO Max or Netflix for $15 a month and can order in some DoorDash for a fraction of the price.  

 

They also will be watching on their 75'' 4K SmartTV and nice sound instead of their crappy 27'' tube tv with bad speakers.  

[Lordmandeep]

Expect Streaming services to explode over next few months as people stay indoors more. 

[Eric Atreides]

On 11/16/2019 at 1:00 PM, EmpireCity said:

I think within the next few years the 90 day release window will be eliminated or adjusted.  The model going forward will be something like this.....

 

Disney will release Thor: Love and Thunder day and date on Disney+ (and possibly other services like Vudu, Amazon) and in theaters. Disney+ subscribers and other streaming platforms can pay an extra $25 to see it immediately.  If they choose not to, they can wait however many months Disney chooses to put it on the streaming platform as part of the regular cost.  The movie will also be released in theaters for a normal ticket price.  

 

 

https://deadline.com/2020/03/coronavirus-trolls-world-tour-invisible-man-the-hunt-emma-debut-on-demand-in-home-theatrical-window-collapse-1202884570/

[Eric Atreides]

 

[Barnack]

15 minutes ago, Eric Lightfoot said:

 

Unlike everything else, most of the SVOD model is a bit like gym membership, usage cost them money it does not make them money, new user would be an interesting metric.

[Eric Atreides]

https://variety.com/2020/biz/news/coronavirus-movie-theaters-concert-venue-attendance-drop-study-1203550489/

 

Quote

After a month of increasing anxiety and self-isolation due to the coronavirus pandemic, audiences in the U.S. are largely not eager to return to public events once the crisis subsides, according to a new study.

In a survey of 1,000 consumers in the U.S., 44% of respondents said they would attend fewer large public events, even once they are cleared by the CDC, with 38% saying they’d attend about the same number, and 18% saying they’d attend more. And 47% agreed that the idea of going to a major public event “will scare me for a long time.”

 

The news for movie theaters was particularly grim, with 49% of respondents saying it would take “a few months” to “possibly never” for them to return, and 28% saying they will attend movie theaters less often once they’re safe. While 15% of respondents said they plan on going to the movies more often post-pandemic (and 58% said their attendance won’t change), the net effect suggests an alarming erosion of theatrical returns that exhibitors and studios alike can ill afford.

 

The news isn’t entirely bad, however: 46% said they will value going to public events more than they did before, and 53% reported a “pent-up desire to attend the events I love” once the pandemic is over.

 

[DAJK]

46 minutes ago, Eric Lightfoot said:

https://variety.com/2020/biz/news/coronavirus-movie-theaters-concert-venue-attendance-drop-study-1203550489/

 

 

I heard this figure from the company I used to work for (it's an exaggeration to make a saying, rather than an exact statistic) that 5% of people make up 95% of moviegoers. Honestly, most of the people who think they're gonna avoid movie theatres "forever" after this aren't the people who make up the bulk of the moviegoing audience anyway.

 

Also, the people saying they're gonna do stuff like avoid social events forever lmao way to overreact there.

[Eric Atreides]

 

Can't wait to see the next Star Wars trilogy exclusively on Disney+

[cdsacken]

People who said they will never attend a theater again go to 1 movie a year and they are lying. They will still go. 

 

Can't wait for my kid to get a bit older. Alist for both of us then. 

[Sunny Max]

On 11/18/2019 at 3:22 AM, cdsacken said:

It will hurt mid range films. I think small budget films that execute well will work fine.

True ..

[Eric Atreides]

 

[lilmac]

Highlights from Netflix’s first quarter earnings call:

2020 projects (over 200 in number), spanning series and films, have already been shot and are in post-production

All animated projects are in remote production and post production

The pause in global physical production (except for Iceland and South Korea where filming is ongoing) won’t be felt until 2021

Netflix will make up for dips in content with acquired properties.

The next season of The Crown already wrapped and is still scheduled for release this fall. Stranger Things will see delays (I wonder if the actors will have visibly aged when they return to the set)

They are experimenting with staggered episode releases to stretch content out.

Its reality dating show "Love is Blind" was viewed by 30 million member households, its docu-series "Tiger King" was viewed by 64 million member households and original film "Spenser Confidential" was viewed by 85 million member households. Netflix changed its viewing metric in January. A customer only has to watch a show for two minutes for Netflix to count it as a view

[Eric Atreides]

https://deadline.com/2020/04/theatrical-film-tv-ads-pay-tv-doomed-by-covid-19-to-fade-out-like-cds-dvds-print-analyst-1202917021/

 

Quote

The damage done to Hollywood by COVID-19 is just beginning, and will hasten the decline of theatrical moviegoing, TV advertising, pay-TV and other longtime features of the landscape, according to a sweeping new report by Wall Street analyst Michael Nathanson.

 

The analyst at MoffettNathanson reflected in the 25-page report on fallout from previous recessions over his 20-plus years as an analyst. He noted the demise of the CD, the DVD, radio ad growth and print ads all resulted from economic crisis. “Economic recessions act as an accelerant for evolving shifts in consumer and corporate behavior,” he wrote. “When facing unplanned declines in revenue, spending decisions have to be quickly re-examined as individuals and corporations re-assess the relative money for value hierarchies in their world.”

 

Unlike some doomsday prophets, Nathanson emphasized that as a self-described “cinephile,” he is neither hoping or expecting that consumers will abandon theaters en masse. “We are saying that as the ROI in the industry shrinks, studios will limit their investment in traditional theatrical releases.”

 

The report did not find Nathanson changing any of his ratings on media and entertainment shares. He reiterated his “buy” ratings on Disney and Fox Corp. “We believe Disney is the only company with a big enough lifeboat and the organizational will to come out of these secular changes in a strong position while Fox’s focus on live news and sports remains the right strategy,” he wrote. AMC Networks, Discovery and ViacomCBS are rated “neutral” because “current valuations will be supported by near-term cash flow yields.” He also lists Cinemark and Netflix as neutral.

 

[Eric Atreides]

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/movieogers-divided-universal-feud-theater-owners-1294009

 

Quote

A new survey suggests consumers are divided as to the ongoing feud between theater owners and Hollywood studios — specifically Universal Pictures — over releasing new movies simultaneously on the big screen and in the home.

 

Slightly more than half of consumers, or 53 percent, agree that "digital premieres" are a good thing during the COVID-19 crisis, but that they want things to go back to normal when the pandemic ends, according to a new Hollywood Reporter/Morning Consult poll. Additionally, 46 percent agree that movies should always premiere on the big screen before being released digitally.

 

At the same time, the poll of 2,200 adults by Morning Consult found that 40 percent support Universal releasing new movies in movie theaters and digitally at the same time, while 33 percent say the studio should continue to do so even if hurts the movie theater industry.

 

The survey was conducted between April 30 and May 3, several days after AMC Theatres said it would no longer license any Universal films after comments made by NBCUniversal CEO Jeff Shell regarding the performance of Trolls World Tour on premium video-on-demand.

 

According to the survey, 30 percent of avid moviegoers support AMC's decision to boycott Universal. And over half of those polled, or 52 percent, say cinemas should adapt to changing times and embrace digital movie premieres.

 

The latest Morning Consult poll also revisited consumer sentiment regarding how quickly a person would be likely to return to a movie theater when cinemas reopen. Almost a quarter, or 22 percent, say they would go to a movie within one month of their state meeting White House benchmarks regarding the number of COVID-19 cases.

 

 

 

Meanwhile, a new poll from Screen Engine/ASI finds that extra sanitizing measures and staggered seating are key to consumer confidence in terms of returning to a movie theater or other large venues. More than 51 percent of the 2,700 consumers polled said safety concerns are their chief issue. (Screen Engine is one of the entertainment industry's leading research firms.)

 

But overall only 7 percent say they would go to the movies right away. That's in addition to 54 percent who don’t know when it will be safe to be in large crowds.

 

[RealLyre]

Quote

 found that 40 percent support Universal releasing new movies in movie theaters and digitally at the same time, while 33 percent say the studio should continue to do so even if hurts the movie theater industry.

I think a moderate solution of shortening the theatrical window will please both sides. if movies started going to digital 4-5 weeks after theater release for example.

 

ofc good luck convincing AMC to agree to that when they refused Netflix's offer to screen the irishman with a 45 days theatrical window at best.