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BobDole

Weekly Scoring

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 Link - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mtMM-AmLLtYIym3lsIULzZ-t-T9aWNM6J-xfotB3Npw/edit?usp=sharing

 

Charlie's Angels underperformed even its expected underperformance while Ford v Ferrari beat predictions that had been tempered by a string of November underperformances. In spite of that, scores bounced back from the lows of last weekend with new highs set for best score (Inceptionzq), best low score, and best average score in the early goings of the season.

 

Inceptionzq also got the best Part A score (14 right, only missing question 11 (Will Jojo Rabbit have a better percentage change than Parasite) which everybody got wrong thanks to Parasite dropping 28.2% vs JJR's 30.2% despite JJR adding far more theaters this weekend (197 vs Parasite's 17). Looks like both specialty features are hitting the upper bounds of their expansion at least prior to the Oscars).

 

chasmmi got the best Part B score thanks to being within .2% of Last Christmas's 43.2% drop, netting them 15k points and the 3rd best score of the week.

Multiple players got 4/6 in part C

 

 

  wk3 Cume
Sheikh 87 246
Inceptionzq 96 200
captainwondyful 77 187
Fancyarcher 73 183
chasmmi 78 172
ZeeSoh 58 169
Bdole 62 163
JJ-8 73 161
glassfairy 64 152
Wrath 29 119
bcf26 37 103
The Panda 46 102

 

With the absolute trash fire that has been the start of the winter box office season, how badly are our Preaseason Predictions going?

Taking a look at the number of times players picked Charlie's Angels/Doctor Sleep/Terminator: Dark Fate/Last Christmas:

 

chasmmi -7 (3x Dom / 3x WW / 1x Multiplier)

Mike Hunt - 7 (4x Dom / 1x OW / 2x WW)

Kalo - 5 (4x Dom / 1x OW)

BobDole - 8 (3x Dom / 1x OW / 3x WW / 1x Multi)

Wrath - 4 (2x Dom / 1x WW / 1x Multi)

glassfairy - 7 (3x Dom / 2x OW / 2x WW)

bcf26 - 8 (3x Dom / 2x OW / 3x WW)

ZeeSoh - 3 (2x Dom / 1x WW)

Inceptionzq - 6 ( 3x Dom / 1x OW / 2x WW)

Fancyarcher - 4 (2x Dom / 1x OW / 1x WW)

JJ-8 - 6 (3x Dom / 1x OW / 2x WW)

The Panda - 6 (3x Dom / 2x WW / 1x Multi)

captainwondyful - 4 (1 each Dom/OW/WW/Multi)

Sheikh - 4 (2x Dom / 1x WW / 1x Multi)

WrathOfHan - 4 (2x Dom / 1x OW / 1x WW)

 

While most of the Dom/OW predictions will cost points, some of the WW predicted grosses aren't that far off so some players may yet benefit if the underperformers can cling to the bottom rungs of the Top 12 WW grosses

 

Disney also announced it was pushing The King's Man to September and out of the last weekend of the game which'll affect 8 predictions

 

Edited by BobDole
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Those 4 are kinda all in different boats.

 

- Doctor Sleep and Charlie's Angels are totally dead. Huge, smoking craters which will contribute nothing anywhere.

- Last Christmas will *probably* join them, but it might get lucky and hang on long enough to make the multi list.

- Terminator is a disappointment, but still fine for game purposes. Its almost a lock to make the WW chart, its got a fighting chance of making the Dom chart, and if almost everything else also bombs it could even sneak onto the OW chart.

Edited by Wrath
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With more points up for grabs from an expanded part A, were players able to take advantage of it?

No.

Players averaged 47k points, down from last week's 65k and above only week 2's bloodbath 32k

Part A proved tricky with only a little more than half the players getting any bonus and even then it was towards the lower end of the bonus scale. ZeeSoh & Sheikh got a weekend-best 15 questions correct with ZeeSoh getting a better mix of questions correct garnering 57k points to Sheikh's 53k.

 

Sheikh once again played second fiddle in Part B whose 11k points (tied with BobDole) was slightly below Fancyarcher's 12k.

 

It was in Part C that Sheikh managed tops with 3 correct predictions, tied with WrathOfHan (entering the weekly game) and Fancyarcher.

 

With that consistency, Sheikh leads the weekly game and of course the cumulative scoring with Fancyarcher placing 2nd in each. Distance between 1st & 2nd place expands to 69k from 46k last week.

 

Close calls of the week: #5 most of the weekend it looked like Frozen would get 74%+ of the Top 5 but with the finals it comes in at 75.23756% of the Top 5.

#12 Ford v Ferrari dips 50.0216%

 

With 319 values to input, a typo or miskey is always a possibility. As always, feel free/encouraged to take a look over your scores & answers to double-check the work.

 

  Wk4
Sheikh 82
Fancyarcher 76
ZeeSoh 74
Inceptionzq 56
chasmmi 53
Wrath 52
JJ-8 51
WrathOfHan 50
Bdole 41
glassfairy 36
bcf26 36
Edited by BobDole
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With 2 days of numbers providing guidance for the new openers' trajectories, week 5 proved to be bountiful for those who played, with new highs set for best individual score, average score, and best worst >0 score.

 

Sheikh got the first perfect section A of the season, going 15-for-15 and the fourth 15-correct of the season after three 15/20s in the expanded weeks 1 & 4. Three of those 15 corrects are from Sheikh while ZeeSoh is the only other player to have gotten 15 correct (week 4).

 

Sheikh also managed to score points for all three questions in section B, though none of them particularly lucrative with two 3rd-placers. Inceptionzq murdered section B, with two closest estimates and one getting the max 15k points for coming within 0.52% of Frozen II's Friday gross

 

Sheikh was the first player since week 1 to get 5 right in part C with Inceptionzq (4 correct) being the only other player to get more than half correct in the last part.

 

Close Calls:

#13 (Will Last Christmas stay above Joker?) Yes, by $57,797

 

Sheikh keeps their vice grip on #1 for the season, increasing the lead over second place to 78k points from last week's 69k and cracking 400k in the process with 3 other players having 300k+

 

  Wk5 Cume
Sheikh 125 453
Inceptionzq 119 375
BobDole 92 296
JJ-8 86 298
ZeeSoh 80 323
captainwondyful 77 264
Wrath 72 243
Fancyarcher 72 331
bcf26 68 207
glassfairy 60 248
chasmmi 0 225
The Panda 0 102
WrathOfHan 0 50

 

Edited by BobDole
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44 minutes ago, BobDole said:

Another tricky section C with most players only getting 1 or 2 right. captainwondyful & glassfairy did the best with 3 correct each. Nobody guessed #12 (The Good Liar), #10 (Joker), or #4 (Queen & Slim) correctly.

You did part C wrong. It was 2,3,5,7,9,11. Not 2,4,6,8,10,12

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Two more players scored 6-digit point tallies after none in the first 4 weeks (which included 2 expanded weeks) as well as new highs set for average score and lowest non-zero score.


BobDole joins the 15 club becoming the second player this season to get everything correct in Part A


BobDole however had to settle for second twice in Part B, coming behind Chasmmi both times. Chasmmi gets 15k points for Part B, tied with ZeeSoh who got within $8 of Knives Out's PTA. Sheikh ties BobDole in part B with 9k points, behind ZeeSoh & Chasmmi.

Multiple players got 4/6 right in Part C, no one guessed the 10th-place film correctly with most players putting down PlayMobil.


ZeeSoh gets the best score of the week with 108k points followed by BobDole's 102k.

Despite a rare week not having the best score (or even top 3), Sheikh still expands their lead slightly going from a 78k to 80k-point distance over second place

 

    Wk6 Cume
- Sheikh 88 541
- Inceptionzq 86 461
+1 ZeeSoh 108 431
-1 Fancyarcher 73 404
+1 BobDole 102 398
+2 glassfairy 80 328
+2 Wrath 77 320
+2 chasmmi 94 319
-4 JJ-8 0 298
+1 bcf26 66 273
-4 captainwondyful 0 264
- The Panda 0 102
- WrathOfHan 0 50

 

Edited by BobDole
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The game saw another strong week with season-bests set for Top Score, Best Worst Score (non-zero), and average score

 

The season's first perfect 6 in part C came from Sheikh who guessed the correct movie in every even-numbered position #2-12, netting them 50k points. Strong week for part C with plenty of 4 & 5s correct.

 

3 players got 14/15 correct in part A with chasmmi getting the best mix of point values correct to get the most points out of the three (missing only a low 1000-pointer)

 

There was also plenty of points to go around in part B with nearly every active player scoring points here, though it was a ho-hum scoring with no one really nailing their predictions. Part B was good for a total of 56k points amongst the players, not the best, not the worst. BobDole got the most points (12k) and Fancyarcher was the only one scoring points from more than one question.

In the pre-season, not one guess had Jumanji coming in under a $70M opening (average guess of $77M with one $100M+ guess) while predictions had significantly dampened to an average $50M guess this week with the movie coming in somewhere between.

 

No surprise, Sheikh holds on to their lead and extends it to a nearly six-digit distance over second-place (98k)

 

    Wk7 Cume
- Sheikh 118 659
- Inceptionzq 100 561
- ZeeSoh 87 518
+1 BobDole 92 490
-1 Fancyarcher 82 486
- glassfairy 113 441
+1 chasmmi 99 418
-1 Wrath 81 401
+1 bcf26 89 362
-1 JJ-8 0 298
- captainwondyful 0 264
- The Panda 0 102
- WrathOfHan 0 50

 

 

As always, everyone is encouraged to double-check my work given the amount of inputting figures (google docs link in first post)

 

Edited by BobDole
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Scoring for the holiday period has finished now that STX finally reported the Dec 20 weekend gross for Playmobil needed to score week 8's question #19

 

Week 8 (Dec 20-22)

With another jumbo-sized weekend of 20 questions, could the players continue the scoring momentum from the prior few weeks or would they fall back into the curse of low scores plaguing prior supersized weekends?

It was the latter. With the lowest high score of the game (78k), not one player was able to hit a 6-figure score in the week.

Chasmmi did the best in Part A with 54k points from 14 correct answers, beating out Sheikh's 52k from 14 correct.

For the first time in the game, everybody got points from part B. The bad news: It was the lowest total points from part B of the season with Wrath's 15k points making a good chunk of the 39k total.

Part C was equally terrible; of the 9 players, 4 got one correct and one got none with BobDole and Sheikh getting 4 correct each.

Sheikh gets the high score of the week and extends their lead to 119k over second-place, putting the distance between 1st & 2nd at six-figures for the first time in the game.

 

*A note on scoring: while none of the websites with full weekend charts are showing it, (Boxofficemojo, TheNumbers), per Deadline, Indian movie Dabangg 3 grossed $1.115M for the weekend which affects the scoring for both question #15 & part C as that would place it as the 12th highest-grossing movie for the weekend though, again, none of the main box office reporting websites show it as such

 

Week 9 (Dec 27-29)

This week proved to be much better with a new high score of 126k set by Fancyarcher narrowly overtaking the previous season-high of 125k set in week 5. In doing so Fancyarcher also overtook BobDole for 4th place in the game.

With only 7 players in the week, it was a generally high-scoring affair with almost all players getting 6-figure scores. Four players got 14/15 in part A while Inceptionzq received the third perfect 15/15 of the season in part A

Despite fewer players vying for the limited number of points from part B, they still couldn't capitalize on the decreased competition getting a total of 42k from part B, barely better than the season-low set the prior week. 2/3 of those points went to Inceptionzq & Fancyarcher.

Two weeks after the first 6/6, three(!) players got a perfect part C in week 9.

2nd-place Inceptionzq manages to cut the distance between them and 1st place down to 109k

 

Week 10 (Jan 3-5)

bcf26 & Sheikh tied for best score in Part A at 13 correct/58k points each while part B perked up from the doldrums of the prior 2 weeks with a season-best 79k total points with glassfairy accounting for 27k of those on their way to the week's high score. Multiple players got 4/6 correct in part C.

  Wk10 Cume
Sheikh 83 927
Inceptionzq 82 817
ZeeSoh 77 761
Fancyarcher 70 732
BobDole 69 701
glassfairy 88 666
Wrath 0 563
chasmmi 61 553
bcf26 83 445
captainwondyful 0 304
JJ-8 0 298
The Panda 0 102
WrathOfHan 0 50

 

As always, take a glance at the scoring (link to spreadsheet in first post) for mistakes/typos

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Week 11 was a generally strong week for play though a mixed bag when breaking down the various parts of the game.

 

Very strong part A with another perfect 15/15 courtesy of Fancyarcher, five 14/15s, and two 13/15s being the worst anyone got in the first part.

 

A total of 60k points were won from part B, a bit better than the average 57k over the course of this season with Fancyarcher getting the only <1% guess thanks to their Grudge guess (-69% to the actual -69.2%) and getting a total of 16k points from the numerical prediction section, edged out by bcf26's 17k points for the section.

 

*Note on Scoring: Frozen II's PTA is $2,226, not the $1861 BoxOfficeMojo is showing. BoxOfficeMojo is showing Frozen II's theater count for the Jan 10-12 weekend as 3175 however TheNumbers had pegged it at 2655 last Thursday and the finals on Box Office Pro, BoxOfficeReport, and TheNumbers all reflect the same 2655 theater count. 3175 is the theater count for the previous weekend.

 

Part C was where the players tripped up, with four 1/6, two 2/6, and the best anyone faring were two 3/6.

 

Fancyarcher had the top score of the week though there were no rank changes in the running season scores

 

  Week 11 Cume
Sheikh 82 1009
Inceptionzq 78 895
ZeeSoh 86 847
Fancyarcher 95 827
Bdole 72 773
glassfairy 0 666
Wrath 82 645
chasmmi 86 639
bcf26 88 533
captainwondyful 0 304
JJ-8 0 298
The Panda 0 102
WrathOfHan 0 50

 

Oscar nominations were announced Monday morning, with 53 movies garnering a nomination, 17 released in the game's time frame, and 12 of those being a non-streaming release that have/will have reportable box office.

 

  ADP Misc   gross ($M)
1917 2 8 10 48.2
Little Women 3 3 6 76.5
Ford v Ferrari 1 3 4 111.6
Bombshell 2 1 3 28.3
Star Wars 9 0 3 3 481.3
Harriet 1 1 2 42.9
ABDITN 1 0 1 60
Richard Jewell 1 0 1 22.1
Knives Out 0 1 1 140.7
Frozen2 0 1 1 460.5
Corpus Christi 0 1 1  
Les Miserables 0 1 1 0.024

*rankings will differ when accounting for both gross & noms

 

For the most part the nominations didn't affect players badly in SOTM 2 with 3 players losing 40k points each for picking the non-nominated Cats.

Otherwise, at this early stage in awards season, it's looking like the higher one placed 1917 the better, but all players save The Panda placed 1917 at a lowly 5th or 6th. A likely leggy run to 9-figures and a strong contender for the technical categories (esp sound against FvF) bodes well for it placing highly in SOTM 2. With a solid box office right around $100M, Little Women and Ford v Ferrari are looking to make a play for the technical categories to run up their SOTM 2 score as Best Picture/Actress/S. Actress aren't looking likely for them (the latter two for Little Women).

 

  1 2 3 4 5 6
Mike Hunt SW9 F2 FvF ABDITN LW 1917
Wrath F2 FvF SW9 LW 1917 ABDITN
glassfairy LW F2 SW9 FvF Cats ABDITN
captainwondyful F2 FvF LW ABDITN 1917 Cats
Fancyarcher SW9 F2 Cats ABDITN FvF LW
bcf26 SW9 F2 FvF ABDITN LW 1917
BDole Bombshell SW9 LW F2 1917 ABDITN
JJ-8 SW9 F2 FvF Bombshell ABDITN LW
chasmmi FvF ABDITN F2 Bombshell SW9 LW
The Panda SW9 1917 F2 FvF LW ABDITN
WrathOfHan F2 LW SW9 ABDITN 1917 FvF
Sheikh SW9 F2 FvF ABDITN LW 1917
ZeeSoh F2 SW9 FvF ABDITN LW 1917

 

 

 

Edited by BobDole
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Fancyarcher & Wrath tie for best score in part A with 14 correct each

 

Season-low points scored in part B by the players at a total of 32k points. glassfairy did the best getting 10k of those points

 

All players got either 4 or 3 out of 6 in part C

 

Fancyarcher got the best score for the week, no movement in the rankings, distance between 1st & 2nd place increases to 124k points, largest gap thusfar in the season

 

  Wk12 Cume
Sheikh 91 1100
Inceptionzq 81 976
ZeeSoh 81 928
Fancyarcher 92 919
Bdole 77 850
glassfairy 90 756
Wrath 85 730
chasmmi 74 713
bcf26 82 615
captainwondyful 0 304
JJ-8 0 298
The Panda 0 102
WrathOfHan 0 50
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Week 13 updated:

Difficult week for Part A with an average of 9 questions right topped by Sheikh's 12 correct

Close calls:

#3 - GM inched past $10.5 making $10.6M for the weekend

#7 - (10,651,884 + 6,950,045) = 17,601,929*2 = $35,203,858 > $34,011,714

#9 - SW9 narrowly crossed $500M on Sat by $207,307

 

Decent week for part B with bcf26's 14k points being the most of any player for the week

Sheikh tops Part C with a perfect 6/6

 

  Wk13 Cume
Sheikh 99 1199
Inceptionzq 78 1054
ZeeSoh 56 984
Fancyarcher 51 970
Bdole 63 913
glassfairy 73 829
Wrath 30 760
chasmmi 0 713
bcf26 45 660
captainwondyful 0 304
JJ-8 0 298
The Panda 0 102
WrathOfHan 0 50
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Decent week overall

Four players got 13 questions correct with chasmmi getting the best mix of questions, good for 58k points total in part A

Solid part B with a total of 73k points earned by the players, 3rd best for the season (behind week 9's 79k & week 2's 76k). ZeeSoh scored the most (25k) by getting points from all 3 questions, coming in 2nd for two questions and tying for 1st in one.

Part C was a challenge with players averaging one correct answer, Bob Dole prevailed here getting 3 correct.

 

ZeeSoh's part B was enough to help them get the week's top score

 

There was a ranking change for the first time in over a month with chasmmi moving up to 7th place.

    Wk14 Cume
- Sheikh 69 1268
- Inceptionzq 74 1128
- ZeeSoh 86 1070
- Fancyarcher 56 1026
- Bdole 75 988
- glassfairy 58 887
+1 chasmmi 58 771
-1 Wrath 0 760
- bcf26 0 660
- captainwondyful 0 304
- JJ-8 0 298
- The Panda 0 102
- WrathOfHan 0 50

 

Link to scoring spreadsheet in the first post in this thread, feel free to double-check the work

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It's not much but a Start: Week 15 scores:

 

Player Part A Part B Part C Total
Shiekh 53 24 18 95
Chasmmi 49 4 18 71
Inceptionzq 35 3 25 63
Zeesoh 42 1 18 61
Fancyarcher 22   18 40
BobDole 20   18 38
bcf26 20   18 38
Glassfairy 18   18 36
Wrath 18 1 10

29

 

Expect more late in the weekend... 

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Week16:

 

Name Part A Part B Part C Total
glassfairy 75 4 25 104
Sheikh 61 16 25 102
bobdole 60 4 18 82
zeesoh 66 6 10 82
Inceptionzq 66 5 10 81
chasmmi 66 1 10 77
wrath 65   10 75
fancyarcher 51 1 10 62
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4 hours ago, chasmmi said:

Week16:

 

Name Part A Part B Part C Total
glassfairy 75 4 25 104
Sheikh 61 16 25 102
bobdole 60 4 18 82
zeesoh 66 6 10 82
Inceptionzq 66 5 10 81
chasmmi 66 1 10 77
wrath 65   10 75
fancyarcher 51 1 10 62

I predicted a 12% drop for 1917 which was right on the money. Should have 15 from that. And a slight nitpick, I think I should only have 3 from the other questions in part B

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1 hour ago, Inceptionzq said:

I predicted a 12% drop for 1917 which was right on the money. Should have 15 from that. And a slight nitpick, I think I should only have 3 from the other questions in part B

Right, this what happens when you do things manually :)

 

It should be 14k, not 5k.

 

12 is 96% of 12.5 so with 5% = 9k (1st)

51.26 was more than 10% off from 58 so 1k (3rd)

1684 was 91% of 1842 so within 10% 4k (2nd)

 

I believe. it is 3am though

 

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16 minutes ago, chasmmi said:

Right, this what happens when you do things manually :)

 

It should be 14k, not 5k.

 

12 is 96% of 12.5 so with 5% = 9k (1st)

51.26 was more than 10% off from 58 so 1k (3rd)

1684 was 91% of 1842 so within 10% 4k (2nd)

 

I believe. it is 3am though

 

You’re right. Thanks for doing this!

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